Father’s Day weekend will bring another interesting and similar set of conditions to portions of New England, as a low pressure system quite characteristic of a Nor’easter tracks up the coast. It will bring heavy rains, very strong storms in the mid-Atlantic, and strong easterly and northeasterly flow to portions of coastal New England. The graphic below, from the Weather Channel, gives some indication of the orientation and speed of these winds. Sea-watching, where safe, should be interesting, particularly from Cape Cod on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The post Andrea redux (barely) and New England coastal storm: 13 June 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

Team BirdCast will be monitoring hurricanes and discussing the birds that they entrain and displace throughout the 2013 hurricane season. With each discussion, we will remind you that safety is priority number one when storm birding – these systems are dangerous, and bring with them dangerous conditions before, during, and after landfall. We will also remind you to review a detailed primer on hurricane birding that Team eBird posted in 2011 and 2012, which can be found here.

Already we have a tropical storm churning in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Andrea is expected to make landfall in the eastern Panhandle of Florida this evening, bring heavy rain, the threat of tornadic storms, perhaps 40-70 mph winds, and a storm surge of at least several feet. An excellent summary of the storm at present is on Dr. Jeff Masters’s Wunderblog.

Given this storm’s origins, we do not expect a particularly exotic array of entrained pelagic species over the course of the storm’s path once over land. However, some nearshore species will be entrained and displaced to coastal and inland locations, including Magnificent Frigatebird, Brown Pelican, terns, Laughing Gull, and jaegers. Birders in the SE US should watch inland bodies of water on Friday from northern Florida North and East along the coast to the east of the Appalachians to the Carolinas as the storm moves rapidly to the northeast.

We also expect potential for displacement farther North along the Atlantic seaboard as easterly winds associated with the approach and passage of the storm will shift nearshore species close to shore. Given the storm’s forecast track, coastal locations from DelMarVa North and East to Cape Cod and the Canadian maritimes (again, when and where it is safe to go birding) may experience good seawatching on Friday and Saturday (and Sunday in the Canadian maritimes). Birders at coastal locations should watch for Brown Pelican, Great, Cory’s, Sooty, and Manx Shearwaters, Wilson’s and Leach’s Storm-Petrel, Royal and Sandwich Terns and Parasitic and Pomarine Jaegers, in addition to less common species like Audubon’s Shearwater, Band-rumped Storm-Petrel, Brown Booby, and Long-tailed Jaeger, and more typical storm waifs like Bridled and Sooty Terns. Additionally, recent pelagic observations in the NW Atlantic from June suggest that Pterodroma (including Fea’s, Herald, and Black-capped) petrels are possible even from coastal sites in a storm like this in early June, despite its speed and relatively slow winds, so keep an eye and camera ready.

The post Hurricane Season 2013: Tropical Storm Andrea appeared first on BirdCast.

Some light to moderate movements continued in the West, as the last of the moderate and locally heavy movements occurred in the East. Species on the move this week included Ruddy Turnstone, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Yellow-bellied and Alder Flycatchers, and Gray-cheeked Thrush. Note that our colleagues at University of Wyoming experienced some problems with the production of their synoptic and radar imagery. Because the typical presentation of weekly animated snapshots was more limited than previous weeks, the animation below shows radar mosaic imagery from the UCAR website and only for 26-31 May 2013.

West

With most migrants now well north in the region, it was no surprise that light to moderate movements were limited, though still present, across the region. These movements continued for the entire period, particularly close to the Pacific Coast and in portions of the Desert Southwest. Species on the move this week included Black Tern (in Washington), Olive-sided and Willow Flycatchers, Western Wood-Pewee, Gray-cheeked and Swainson’s Thrushes (in Alaska), Gray Catbird (in eastern Washington), and Yellow, Orange-crowned and Blackpoll Warblers (in Alaska).

Great Plains

Migration continued through the period, among several areas of intense precipitation and strong storms, at moderate to locally heavy levels. In particular, light to moderate movements were still apparent in scattered storms even late into the week on Wednesday and Thursday nights. This pattern was especially apparent farther north in the region, where more migrants were still passing. Species on the move this week included Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Alder and Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Philadelphia Vireo, Sedge Wren, Wilson’s and Canada Warblers.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered light to moderate movements occurred in many parts of the region away from rain, particularly later in the forecast period. As would be expected, more northerly radars detected more intense movements, with birds continuing to move into and through those areas relative to points farther south. Highlighting this further, notice the relative dearth of targets farther south despite favorable conditions to move on some nights (particularly Wednesday and Thursday nights). Species on the move this week included Black-billed and Yellow-billed Cuckoos, Alder and Yellow-bellied Flycatchers, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Cedar Waxwing, and Mourning Warbler.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

With the exception of Texas, where light to locally moderate movements occurred during the forecast period, most of the region saw little additional movement on radar. Numbers of birds actively migrating in the Southeast have dwindled, other than perhaps shorebird movements along primarily coastal areas. Species on the move this week included Ruddy Turnstone, Red Knot, Black Tern, and a scattering of late passerines including Yellow-bellied Flycatcher and Gray-cheeked Thrush.

This post marks the end of regular Spring 2013 regional migration forecast and analysis reports. Regular updates to the site will continue through the summer, and weekly forecast and analysis will begin again on 1 August 2013.

The post Regional Migration Analysis: 24-31 May 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

With peak migration of many species past, this week will see diminish but still evident light movements in the West, while the East continues to see increasingly scattered late season moderate to isolated heavy movements. Birds on the move this week will include late season shorebirds including Red Knot and White-rumped Sandpiper, Alder and Willow Flycatchers, and Mourning and Blackpoll Warblers.

West

Light winds and variable winds allow the last light to isolated moderate movements of birds to occur at the beginning and end of the forecast period. In between these periods of movement, increasing precipitation scattered locally across the region will inhibit migration where it occurs, beginning late in the weekend in the Pacific Northwest and spreading East into the northern and central Rockies by midweek. Birds on the move this week will include Common Nighthawk, Western Wood-Pewee, Willow Flycatcher, Veery, and Cedar Waxwing.

Great Plains

Nearly the last of the moderate and isolated heavy movements of the spring will occur in the coming week for the region, particularly as the weekend begins. Local fallouts and concentrations are likely in portions of the central and northern Plains states where birds meet rain. By the beginning of the week, although winds remain mostly favorable, the threat of precipitation and storm activity increases and shuts down movement in many areas over the days that follow. Additionally, portions of the northern Plains will see marginal and even unfavorable winds, which will also shut down movements. The degree to which this late season suite of movements is shut down will largely determine how much remaining migration is evident in the latter portion of the forecast period (and into very early June). Birds on the move this week will include late shorebirds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Red-eyed Vireo, Connecticut Warbler, and Nelson’s Sparrow.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Strong high pressure brings more April like conditions to the region East of the Appalachians, largely shutting down movements through the weekend. As winds diminish and become less northerly and westerly, increasing moderate and even locally heavy movements may occur, though not until at least Monday night. Meanwhile, to the west, conditions become more favorable over the weekend as southerly flow returns. Moderate and locally heavy movements will occur, and fallouts and concentrations are likely in the Great Lakes to end the weekend. More favorable conditions spread over the entire region by Monday, facilitating the last major push of migration for many species this spring with moderate to locally heavy movements. By late week, as the threat of precipitation increases, and the number of migrants begins to dwindle, remaining movements will shut down in more western areas. Birders in the central Appalachians should watch the distribution of precipitation closely, as the southerly flow and scattered precipitation may bring a last late season waterbird and shorebird fallout or two in your areas by late in the week. Birds on the move this week will include Yellow-bellied, Alder and Willow Flycatchers, Red-eyed Vireo, Cedar Waxwing, and Mourning Warbler.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Western portions of the region will see the last moderate and isolated movements beginning to fade over the course of this week, beginning with steady movements over the course of the weekend. More eastern areas will see more marginal conditions, but locally moderate movements will occur given the late date. These movements will begin to dwindle, noticeably, over the course of this week, as migration begins to wind down for most species. By midweek, moderate movements represent the peak, with some locally isolated heavy movements continuing in Texas. Birders along the Texas coast should pay particular attention to the precipitation forecast for late in the week on Thursday and Friday – few people continue to bird actively in coastal stopover habitat this late in the season, and vagrants and late migrants could be lurking in the conditions forecast late in the week. Birds on the move this week will include the continued presence recently arrived Gulf Stream pelagics, Red-necked Phalarope and Ruddy Turnstone, and a few late migrant Neotropical passerines including Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, scant Bicknell’s Thrushes, and Mourning Warbler.

The post Regional Migration Forecast 24-31 May 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

Primarily light movements occurred in the West as the clock on this season’s migration continued to wind down, while moderate to locally heavy movements continued in a number of areas East of the Rockies. Birds on the move this week included Ruddy Turnstone, Olive-sided, Willow and Alder Flycatchers, Cedar Waxwing, and Mourning and Wilson’s Warblers.

West

Light movements occurred in many areas, particularly southern and western portions of the region, to begin the period. However, movements dropped off to begin these week in all but the southernmost reaches as strong high pressure built over the northern Rockies. As high pressure dipped south, and winds calmed, more widespread light and locally moderate movements occurred on Monday night. This pattern of more widespread light movements gradually diminished in extent and intensity as the week progressed, with local and scattered precipitation shutting down movements. Birds on the move this week included Western Wood-Pewee, Willow Flycatcher, Eastern Kingbird, Gray Catbird, and Yellow Warbler as western portions of the range of many eastern species’ distributions filled.

Great Plains

Moderate and locally heavy movements were widespread to begin the forecast period, although increasing precipitation associated with an organizing set of low pressure centers shut down movements where it met migrants. As a frontal developed and moved East, migration shut down in much less favorable conditions to begin the week. As conditions improved over the days that followed, increasingly more widespread moderate movements occurred, punctuated by locally heavy movements in the border states. By the end of the period, widespread light to moderate and locally heavy movements spanned the region, increasing with increasing proximity to the Canadian border. Birds on the move this week included White-rumped Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Olive-sided and Alder Flycatchers, Mourning, Tennessee, Canada, and Cape May Warblers, and Orchard Oriole.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

High pressure over the central Mississippi River valley and central Appalachians spawned moderate to heavy movements in western portions of the region, while the Northeast and coastal plain was quiet. As a frontal boundary formed and stalled across the region, light to locally moderate and heavy movements were spread over most of the region. Note that precipitation kept birds grounded in more southerly areas, as more intense movements occurred farther West. The general pattern of widespread light to moderate and locally heavy movements away from precipitation followed into the middle of the week, defined in large part by the distribution of nightly rain, in a complex patchwork pattern of migration and groundings. By the end of the week, the picture became clearer, as a strong frontal boundary pushed East and gradually shut down the system by Thursday night. Birds on the move this week included Olive-sided, Alder and Willow Flycatchers, Cedar Waxwing, and Canada, Wilson’s, Mourning, and Blackpoll Warblers.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to heavy movements began the week in Texas, while light to moderate movements were scattered across the remainder of the region away from precipitation. Movements became less widespread and less intense over the remainder of the forecast period, and particularly noticeable was the decreasing extent of these movements in the Southeast. By the end of the week, movements were mostly occurring in the westernmost reaches of the region, and in light to locally moderate levels at best. Birds on the move this week included Black Tern, Sanderling, Ruddy Turnstone, Cedar Waxwing, Gray-cheeked Thrush, and Mourning Warbler.

The post Regional Migration Analysis: 18-24 May 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

Light to moderate movements continue in many portions of the West, as moderate to heavy movements shift increasingly farther North in the East in areas away from precipitation. Heavy movements in the southern US will begin to wane over the course of this week and next as we near the end of another migration season. Birds on the move this week will include Semipalmated and White-rumped Sandpipers, Willow, Alder and Yellow-bellied Flycatchers, and Bobolink.

West

The Desert Southwest will experience light to moderate movements to begin the weekend, as the remainder of the region will see only local light movements away from precipitation scattered from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies. This pattern continues through the early part of the week, when conditions become more favorable across the region for light to moderate movements. Favorable conditions persist for light to moderate movements for most of the region through the end of the forecast period, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Rockies, which will see precipitation and migration shut downs later in the period. Note that numbers of birds aloft at night will begin decreasing markedly over the course of this week and next week, as migration passes peak in many areas for many species. Birds on the move this week will include Alaskan waterbird arrivals (e.g. Long-tailed Jaeger), Willow and Hammond’s Flycatchers, Western Wood-Pewee, Swainson’s Thrush, and Orange-crowned and MacGillivray’s Warblers.

Great Plains

Moderate to heavy movements will occur over the weekend as migration nears or passes peak for many species, with the potential for fallouts in more northerly areas as a frontal boundary intersects with northbound migrants in the Dakotas. This pattern continues into the early part of the week, with the possibility for fallouts expanding south to include some areas in the central and southern Plains. By midweek, the pattern changes as low pressure moves East across the border states – migration will continue to be moderate to heavy in many areas, given the date and light winds, but more areas will see a decrease in birds aloft at night. Localized fallouts are still likely as precipitation is forecast in several parts of the region. The end of the forecast period sees an interesting set of conditions, likely allowing moderate to heavy movements to continue farther south and away from precipitation but largely dividing areas of heavier movements to the south from lighter movements to the north in an area where fallouts may occur. Birds on the move this week will include Ruddy Turnstone, Black Tern, Common Nighthawk, Alder Flycatcher, Canada Warbler, and Bobolink.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered precipitation shuts down many movements over the weekend, although areas away from precipitation will experience moderate to heavy movements. Birders should be listening for nocturnal migrants in areas where cloud cover is extensive, and as usual birders should be watching carefully the distribution of nocturnal precipitation: passerine and waterbird fallouts are still likely in places where migrants encounter rain. Monday night will see more widespread moderate to heavy flights, particularly if precipitation is more limited than forecast. However, the course of the remainder of the week is complicated by the forecast for rain in many areas. Areas free of rain, even if for several hours at night, will experience moderate to heavy flights, so continued attention to the potential for fallouts later in the week is warranted, particularly in the Appalachians. By the end of the week, precipitation is organized sufficiently to shut down movements in many areas, although, again, areas away from precipitation (particularly in the Great Lakes and New England), will continue to experience moderate to heavy flights despite marginal conditions. Birds on the move this week will include Semipalmated Sandpiper, Ruddy Turnstone, Willow and Alder Flycatchers, Cedar Waxwing, and Mourning and Canada Warblers.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Late season trans- and circum-Gulf migrants will move in moderate to heavy overland flights for the weekend through the middle of the week. Areas of precipitation, though away from the coast, will bring localized concentrations and fallouts in several areas of the Southeast over the course of the forecast period, so as usual birders should watch the distribution of precipitation carefully. By the end of next week, conditions deteriorate in many areas of the Southeast, with increasing precipitation and increasingly easterly winds shutting down movements in many areas. However, the easterly flow may make for interesting birding in more western coastal areas, with the potential for some displacement of later season Caribbean system migrants to the West. This week harkens the onset of markedly fewer passage migrants in the system, given the date, but birds on the move this week will continue to include later season shorebirds like White-rumped and Semipalmated Sandpipers and later season passerines like Alder and Yellow-bellied Flycatchers, Gray-cheeked Thrushes, and Mourning Warbler.

The post Regional Migration Forecast 18-24 May 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

Generally favorable conditions across much of the West brought continuing light to moderate movements, but the parade of fronts across the East brought widely varying size and distribution of movements in conditions changing rapidly from day to day. Species on the move this week included Veery, Gray Catbird, Magnolia, Black-throated Blue, Chestnut-sided and Blackpoll Warblers, Common Yellowthroat, and Baltimore Oriole.

West

Light to moderate movements were the norm this week, as generally favorable or at least marginally favorable conditions prevailed for birds to move across the region. Some areas of California, particularly in the central and northern portions of the state, experienced locally heavy movements early in the period. Not until the mid to late week, specifically Thursday night, did scattered precipitation become sufficiently apparent to locally shut down some movements across northern California and portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Species on the move this week included Olive-sided Flycatcher, Western Wood-Pewee, Swainson’s Thrush, Yellow, and MacGillivray’s Warblers, Black-headed Grosbeak, Western Tanager, and Bullock’s Oriole.

Great Plains

Local but variable movements, ranging from light to isolated heavy movements, were scattered across the region to begin the forecast period, as high pressure moved through the region. By Sunday night, these movements intensified and became more widespread, continuing on Monday night. A passing high diminished movements on Tuesday, but more favorable conditions, primarily driven by light winds, returned for the remainder of the period as more widespread moderate and locally heavy movements occurred. These were tempered, slightly, on Thursday night, as some local precipitation diminish movements in the vicinity of an evolving warm front over the central Plains. Species on the move this week included Mississippi Kite, Black Tern, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Gray-cheeked and Swainson’s Thrushes, Magnolia, Blackpoll, Yellow, and Wilson’s Warblers, and Orchard Oriole.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to heavy movements were apparent from the central Mississippi River valley East through parts of DelMarVa, and then locally North along the coast into southern New England to begin the forecast period. However, an approaching and a passing frontal boundary shut down migration in all but the most coastal locations by Friday and Saturday nights. High pressure and cooler temperatures building toward the coast kept migrants East of the Appalachians mostly on the ground to begin the week, whereas more favorable and warmer conditions over the Mississippi River valley spawned moderate to heavy movements in those areas. Tuesday night saw many moderate to heavy movements across the region, continuing in some areas through Wednesday night across a stalled frontal boundary. To end the period, this stalled frontal boundary defined areas of favorable conditions and their moderate to locally heavy movements and areas of marginal to unfavorable conditions and their scattered light movements in a striking pattern across the region. Species on the move this week included Least Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Red-eyed Vireo, Magnolia, Black-throated Blue, Chestnut-sided, Wilson’s, and Blackpoll Warblers, Scarlet Tanager, and Baltimore Oriole.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Highly variable conditions over the region spawned moderate to heavy movements locally across the region to begin the forecast period. This continued through Friday night, as a well-defined cold front approach the Texas coast, spawning more widespread moderate to heavy movements as it advanced. The region was mostly shut down as fronts pass over the weekend, diminishing movements to local light movements in most areas. To begin the week, moderate to heavy movements returned farther west in the region, over Texas, while the continuing effects of high pressure near the Bahamas kept most movements to a minimum over the rest of the Southeast. As high pressure built over the eastern Gulf and intensified, more favorable conditions became widespread over the region, spawning more widespread moderate movements in many areas. The pattern continued through the remainder of the period, though precipitation associated with low pressure diminished movements locally across the region. Some heavy movements continued in Texas, reflecting a continuing stream of birds arriving from points farther south in continental Central and South America, whereas some drop off in the numbers of birds aloft, particularly over more eastern areas, was and will be increasingly apparent given the date and a diminishing pool of remaining migrants in the eastern Caribbean system. Species on the move this week included White-rumped Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Common Nighthawk, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Cedar Waxwing, Blackpoll Warbler, and Indigo Bunting.

The post Regional Migration Analysis 12-17 May 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

Continued light to moderate movements are again the norm for the West away from areas of precipitation, as the East waits to experience moderate to heavy movements in many areas until the middle of the week. Birds on the move this week will include Willow Flycatcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Magnolia, Canada, Wilson’s, Blackpoll, and Bay-breasted Warblers, Scarlet Tanager, and Baltimore Oriole.

West

The weekend begins with scattered precipitation in the Rockies and Desert Southwest that will stop movements where it occurs, while light to moderate movements continue along the Pacific and in areas that are precipitation free. Conditions deteriorate, however, in the Pacific Northwest to begin the week, as light to moderate movements persist in most other parts of the region away from the more extensive precipitation. This pattern continues through to midweek, by which time most of the precipitation moves East out of the region and light to moderate movements expand, particularly in the Desert Southwest and southern California. The end of the week sees mostly favorable conditions continue for light to moderate movements, but increasing chances for scattered precipitation will likely shut down movements in the Desert Southwest and Cascades. Birds on the move this week will include far northern shorebird and alcid arrivals, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Yellow and MacGillivray’s Warblers, Black-headed Grosbeak, Lazuli Bunting, and Western Tanager.

Great Plains

Passing low pressure to the east and north bring largely unfavorable and unseasonably cool conditions to the region for the weekend. Areas in which winds are light may see locally light to moderate movements, but these will be scattered and primarily farther south in the Plains. Conditions slowly begin to improve as high pressure builds and moves East across the region, and moderate to heavy movements will follow on Sunday and Monday nights, particularly over Nebraska and the Dakotas. Tuesday will be an interesting day, with northern areas experiencing light to moderate movements under the effects of a low over the Canadian Prairies and southern areas having highly favorable conditions for heavy movements. Although no precipitation is forecast in the areas where wind shift occurs over the Dakotas, birders should be outside listening for the effects of the wind shift on nocturnal migrants and watch for local concentrations on Wednesday morning. Unfavorable conditions associated with the low pressure center overspread the region by Thursday, shutting down most movements. For the remainder of the period, increasing threats for precipitation and light winds will make for complex nocturnal movements, as moderate to heavy movements will occur in precipitation free areas with light winds and fallouts and local concentrations may occur where precipitation falls. Birds on the move this week will include Black Tern, Willow Flycatchers and early Alder Flycatchers, many warblers including Mourning, Magnolia, and Blackburnian, and Orchard Oriole.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A substantial low pressure system arrives in time to shut down early weekend movements in the Appalachians and in its wake across the Mississippi River valley. However, the coastal plain from Virginia North and East through southern New England should see the favorable conditions continue, spawning moderate to heavy movements in many of these areas. Birders in these areas should watch the distribution of precipitation carefully, as local concentrations and fallouts are likely as precipitation spreads East with the approaching low. Additionally, birders should be listening for nocturnal migrants, as overcast skies and artificial lighting around urban areas will create an audible chorus in places where birds are moving. Furthermore, birders should continue to monitor inland lakes, as this system has already produced interesting waterbird fallouts father south in the region. As this low passes, precipitation spreads across much of New England by Saturday night, but some areas are still forecast to have southerly and southwesterly flow. If this happens, and rain is not present, continued moderate to heavy movements are likely. A note – those in New England and the Canadian Maritimes should watch for potential overshoot migrants in the strong southerly and southwesterly flow forecast during this system’s passage. Behind the frontal passage, conditions will be marginal for movements at best, with northerly and northwesterly flow and cool temperatures. Light to moderate movements may occur despite the conditions, if winds are light, given the time of year. Marginal conditions like this continue through to Monday night, when the next pulse of southerly flow arrives in the Mississippi River valley and spawns moderate to heavy movements there. These conditions spread East by midweek, and moderate to heavy movements should occur in many areas on Wednesday night. As these conditions spread East, the threat of precipitation increases so birders should once again be mindful for local concentrations and fallouts where rain falls. Low pressure associated with this precipitation organizes and moves East to end the week, and the complex conditions it brings to the region will spawn moderate to heavy movements in New England and shut down most movements from the eastern Great Lakes through the Appalachians and Ohio River valley. The end of the week looks good for waterbird fallouts, so birders should check inland bodies of water in Ohio, New York, and Pennsylvania on Friday 17 May. Birds on the move this week will include Eastern Wood-Pewee, Willow Flycatcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Cedar Waxwing, numerous warblers including Bay-breasted, Wilson’s, Magnolia, Canada, Blackpoll, and Mourning, Indigo Bunting, Scarlet Tanager, and Baltimore Oriole.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A frontal boundary is again approaching the Gulf Coast, and with favorable exodus conditions forecast on Friday and Saturday nights in northern Central America, fallouts are likely on the Gulf Coast. The timing of the system’s arrival will determine the extent of these fallouts, but conditions look favorable for a 1-2 day event in many areas of the Gulf Coast West of the Florida Panhandle. By the end of the weekend and the beginning of the week, the front pushes far enough south that trans-Gulf movements shut down, and moderate to locally heavy movements of birds occur in light winds over land behind the frontal boundary. However, the Florida Peninsula will then become the focus of migrant – precipitation interactions, and fallouts are likely to end the weekend and begin the week. As high pressure builds into the region, moderate to heavy movements follow over portions of Texas free of precipitation, while the rest of the Southeast sees only locally light to moderate movements. Note that trans-Gulf conditions do not return to favorable for the entire week, which means many migrant arrivals may be later than expected and birds may concentrate because of light winds and greater exhaustion. Conditions gradually improve for more widespread moderate to heavy over land movements over the course of the week until Thursday. However, the end of the week sees more instability, and complex conditions will see heavy movements in some areas and total shut downs in others. Birds on the move this week will include White-rumped Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Yellow-bellied, Willow, and Alder Flycatchers, and Mourning and Canada Warblers.

The post Regional Migration Forecast: 12-18 May 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

Light to moderate movements across much of the West exemplified more of the steady push of birds into the region, while the East received a jolt of birds midweek, including some movements into the Northeast after many days with a trickle. Birds on the move this week included Least Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Gray Catbird, Yellow Warbler, and Baltimore Oriole.

West

Light to moderate movements were the norm is many areas from the beginning of the period through the early part of the week. This was particularly true in the Desert Southwest and for much of the Pacific Coast. Some scattered precipitation inhibited movements from northern California East and South through the central Rockies by Monday night. However, the influence of this passing disturbance was short-lived, as light to moderate movements continued for much of the remainder of the period. Birds on the move this week included Wilson’s Phalarope, Western Wood-Pewee, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, MacGillivray’s Warbler, Western Tanager, and Black-headed Grosbeak.

Great Plains

High pressure kept most birds on the ground to begin the forecast period, with the exception of some locally light to moderate and even isolated heavy movements in the Dakotas. By late in the weekend, light to moderate movements became more widespread, and by Monday night moderate to heavy movements occurred in many areas. Despite local precipitation on Tuesday night, migration continued as these levels in precipitation free areas. As the precipitation continued, and instability in the atmosphere grew, some movements were diminished in more northerly areas and shut down altogether in storms over Kansas. The many species on the move this week included Common Nighthawk, Least and Great Crested Flycatchers, Swainson’s Thrush, Gray Catbird, Palm, Orange-crowned, Tennessee, Yellow and Blackpoll Warblers, American Redstart, Clay-colored, Lincoln’s and White-crowned Sparrows, Indigo Bunting, and Bobolink.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Light movements East of the Mississippi were local and isolated to begin the forecast period, in advance of an approaching frontal boundary. This pattern continued as the front stalled, and high pressure brought generally marginal and unfavorable conditions for most movements across the region. On Tuesday night, after much of the same marginal to unfavorable conditions, high pressure over the Great Lakes allowed some scattered moderate to heavy movements to occur from the western Great Lakes south along the Mississippi River valley. Local and scattered moderate to heavy movements expanded on Wednesday night from New York South and West through Kentucky. However, precipitation scattered locally from Virginia North and East through the Great Lakes and New England and associated with a weak low pressure center moving off the DelMarVa coast shut down movements in some places. Interestingly, this weak low pressure system presumably spawned some intriguing waterbird fallouts, including reports of Red Phalarope and Arctic Tern in inland locations. Thursday night saw another influx of locally moderate and heavy movements as the effects of the weak low pressure system continued, with the first southerly flow in many different areas creating movements in concert from Virginia through Massachusetts (particularly along the I-95 corridor). Birds on the move this week included Least Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Gray Catbird, Cape May, Chestnut-sided, Magnolia, Nashville, Blackburnian, Golden-winged, and Bay-breasted Warblers, White-crowned Sparrow, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, and Baltimore Oriole.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A cold front sweeping across the region shut down western Gulf of Mexico migration, as locally light to moderate movements occurred farther East of the frontal boundary. As the front continued to push slowly East, light to moderate movements returned over Texas and Louisiana. By Saturday night, a complex pair of fronts were over the region, spawning moderate to heavy movements in Texas, light to moderate movements over Mississippi and Alabama, and shutting down most Florida movements. The situation organized and simplified to begin the week, with high pressure dominating over the Great Plains and producing marginal conditions for widely scattered and highly localized moderate to heavy movements. While this pattern continued over the Southeast, more widespread moderate to locally heavy movements occurred over Texas on Tuesday night. This pattern intensified and expanded East through midweek to the end of the forecast period, with moderate to heavy movements becoming more widespread. By Thursday night, a frontal boundary moving into the panhandle of Texas was already causing some instability toward the coast, with strong storms setting up localized fallouts from the Upper Texas Coast through the lower Mississippi River valley. The precipitation also created another intense fallout scenario for trans-Gulf arrivals on Friday, as intense storms sat right off the coast as migrants arrived onshore in the middle of the day. Birds on the move this week included White-rumped Sandpiper, Yellow-bellied and Least Flycatchers, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Gray-cheeked and Swainson’s Thrushes, Mourning, Magnolia, Canada, Blackpoll, and Chestnut-sided Warblers, and Scarlet Tanager.

The post Regional Migration Analysis: 4-11 May 2013 appeared first on BirdCast.

Unsettled weather across the West and the East complicates the migration scene this week, with light to moderate movements apparent in the West and moderate to heavy movements in the East away from rain. Numerous species are on the move this week, including Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Least Flycatcher, Wood Thrush, American Redstart, Yellow, Magnolia, Blackburnian, and Chestnut-sided Warblers, Bobolink, and Baltimore Oriole.

West

Light to moderate movements will occur in the Desert Southwest and California to begin the weekend, while more northerly reaches of the region will see less substantial movements in less favorable conditions and some scattered precipitation. These movements become more widespread to end the weekend, as the scattered precipitation dissipates and wind speeds diminish. The beginning of the week sees the beginning of an interesting pattern of scattered precipitation forecast for many areas, and this pattern continuing though the week and even intensifying over the course of the week. Whereas many areas free of precipitation will see light to moderate movements, particularly in the middle of the week, concentrations and fallouts are possible where birds encounter precipitation. Some of the precipitation, particularly later in the week, will be sufficient to shut down movements completely. As is typically the case, bird movements will be primarily visible on radar from the Desert Southwest and California. Birds on the move this week will include Western Wood-Pewee, Swainson’s Thrush, Yellow, Wilson’s and MacGillivray’s Warblers, Western Tanager, and Black-headed Grosbeak.

Great Plains

Generally unfavorable conditions continue over the Great Plains to begin the period, but given the date, widespread moderate movements will likely occur. Some of these movements, particularly in areas with lighter winds, will be locally heavy. Border states will see a reprieve by midweek, with more favorable conditions for moderate to heavy movements, but precipitation in more southern areas likely continue to inhibit most heavier movements. Wednesday night is forecast to be the most favorable night of the week for movements, with widespread moderate and heavy movements likely. Conditions deteriorate thereafter through the end of the period, with precipitation in the forecast and migrants moving only in areas free of precipitation at moderate to heavy levels. Birds on the move this week will include White-rumped and Stilt Sandpipers, Common Nighthawk, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Gray Catbird, Yellow, Blackpoll, and Tennessee Warblers, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Bobolink, and Orchard and Baltimore Orioles.

Upper Midwest and Northeast

To begin the period, this region will experience several days of marginal conditions for migrants. Although winds will be light in many areas, the directions are not seasonably favorable for intense movements to occur. However, given the time of year, light winds regardless of direction will allow for moderate to heavy movements in many areas. Presumably, these will be biased toward inland flights, rather than coastal flights. By Tuesday night, the Northeast should experience moderate to locally heavy movements in many areas. Midweek sees the arrival farther to the south and west of a low pressure system, shutting down movements as precipitation falls in a number of areas south of New York and New England. Even as this system passes, conditions will remain marginal through the remainder of the period. Movements will be moderate to locally heavy in areas with light winds, and as usual, birders should pay particular attention to places where birds encounter precipitation for fallouts and concentrations. Later in the week, birders should also pay articular attention to inland bodies of water, as precipitation will mean waterfowl and waterbird fallouts. Among the numerous birds on the move this week will be Acadian and Least Flycatchers, Eastern Kingbird, Wood Thrush and Veery, Magnolia, Chestnut-sided, Wilson’s, and Black-throated Blue Warblers, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Scarlet Tanager, and Baltimore Oriole.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

East of the Mississippi, migration will shut down to begin the weekend as widespread precipitation will keep birds on the ground. Clearer skies to the west of the Mississippi will allow for mostly light to moderate but some locally heavy movements to occur, despite less than favorable winds in many areas. This pattern continues through the early part of the week, when the low pressure system finally exits to the east and more favorable conditions return to the western and central Gulf of Mexico (and points south of there). A more substantial trans-Gulf flight will initiate on Wednesday night, as will moderate to heavy movements west of the Mississippi River valley. This pattern intensifies through the end of the week, although the Southeast remains generally unfavorable for most movements to occur. By week’s end birders should watch the path of a forecast low which will approach the coast closely, possibly bringing rain near the coast and the potential for fallouts. Forecasts at present do not suggest that this will happen by Friday 10 May. However, fallouts at the edge of the coastal plain will be possible in numerous areas, something we will discuss more in next week’s forecast. Among the many species on the move this week will be White-rumped Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Wilson’s, Mourning and Magnolia Warblers.

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