Forecast and Analysis

Migration Analysis: 10-17 April 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 17, 2015

Yellow-rumped Warbler © Ryan Schain

Yellow-rumped Warbler © Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Migrants were active in the region this week in the West, with several pulses of light to moderate movements featuring Semipalmated Plover, Western Sandpiper, Varied Thrush, Nashville Warbler, Blue Grosbeak, and Western Tanager, while many areas of the East experienced moderate and locally heavy movements at times, particularly on Sunday and Monday nights in advance of a cold front, that featured American Bittern, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, House Wren, Yellow Warbler, White-crowned Sparrow, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, and Baltimore Oriole.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Saturday evening’s moderate flights lit up midwestern radars, followed closely on Sunday by region wide light to moderate movements from the Great Lakes and Mississippi River to the Atlantic Coast. This flurry of activity occurred ahead of a strong cold front, that all but shut down movements in the East away from the immediate coast with its passage on Monday night. The remainder of the period saw much less widespread movements, with local light to moderate flights occurring in the western Great Lakes, Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, and New England from Tuesday through the end of the week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 129% 19.8
Chipping Sparrow 72% 25.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler 76% 13.3
House Wren 1621% 3
Brown Thrasher 57% 10.2
Eastern Towhee 48% 16
Swamp Sparrow 56% 9.6
White-throated Sparrow 36% 25.8
American Goldfinch 27% 37.9
Northern Flicker 29% 34.2
Brown-headed Cowbird 33% 30.4
Tree Swallow 32% 32
Purple Finch 56% 6.1
Black-capped Chickadee 22% 36.8
Pine Warbler 48% 8.1
Savannah Sparrow 62% 4.4
Field Sparrow 35% 12.3
Hermit Thrush 24% 8.1
Downy Woodpecker 13% 38.7
Red-bellied Woodpecker 14% 32.6
Snowy Egret 54% 2.8
American Bittern 105% 0.9
Greater Yellowlegs 40% 4.9
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 30% 9.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Fox Sparrow -54% 3.4
Hooded Merganser -45% 5.4
Golden-crowned Kinglet -45% 5.6
Northern Pintail -58% 0.9
Ring-necked Duck -32% 9.2
Common Merganser -38% 6
Tundra Swan -73% 0.3
American Wigeon -39% 3.3
American Tree Sparrow -38% 4.7
Horned Grebe -36% 4.4
Common Goldeneye -48% 1.9
American Black Duck -25% 6.3
Ring-billed Gull -20% 17.5
Greater White-fronted Goose -80% 0.1
Dark-eyed Junco -22% 26.2
Common Redpoll -65% 0.5
Green-winged Teal -24% 7.9
Canvasback -49% 1
Snow Goose -54% 0.5
Redhead -36% 2.5
Lesser Scaup -24% 4.9
Common Loon -28% 5.4
Bufflehead -18% 12.6
Northern Harrier -29% 3.2
Lesser Black-backed Gull -50% 0.3

Baltimore Oriole © Ryan Schain

Baltimore Oriole © Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The diverse array of weather forecast for the region came to pass, bringing moderate and occasional locally heavy flights to many areas over the course of the week. But precipitation shut down movements in many areas and spawned fallouts at various locations along the Gulf coast. Most notably, large numbers of birds were grounded in Alabama and Louisiana early in the period. In the aftermath of these fallouts, a large exodus occurred on Monday night, particularly noticeable from radars in Louisiana. Also of note this week, regular light to moderate flights from Cuba brought migrants to Florida and the southeastern US.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Summer Tanager 100% 12.8
Baltimore Oriole 144% 4.7
Indigo Bunting 102% 12.8
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 212% 4.1
Orchard Oriole 82% 8.4
American Redstart 124% 4.8
Blue Grosbeak 128% 4.6
Yellow Warbler 289% 2.6
Painted Bunting 96% 4.9
Black-throated Green Warbler 71% 6
Ovenbird 81% 4.4
Northern Waterthrush 103% 2.9
Nashville Warbler 100% 3.4
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 31% 14.2
Spotted Sandpiper 67% 4.9
Green Heron 31% 10.7
Great Crested Flycatcher 24% 17.2
Gray Catbird 27% 15.6
Purple Gallinule 140% 1.9
Common Yellowthroat 20% 14.1
Western Kingbird 94% 1.6
Solitary Sandpiper 44% 4.2
Yellow-throated Vireo 29% 6.9
Franklin's Gull 65% 2
Whimbrel 46% 2.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -66% 0.9
Purple Finch -67% 0.4
Hermit Thrush -31% 2.4
Turkey Vulture -19% 24.8
American Kestrel -42% 2
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -50% 0.9
Bonaparte's Gull -45% 0.9
Yellow-rumped Warbler -19% 16.2
Chipping Sparrow -17% 13.7
American Goldfinch -17% 12.6
Pied-billed Grebe -21% 7.8
Ring-billed Gull -25% 5.4
Double-crested Cormorant -14% 17
Northern Harrier -31% 2.1
Bufflehead -63% 0.4
Winter Wren -81% 0.1
Northern Flicker -20% 4.3
Palm Warbler -14% 7.2
Black Vulture -13% 17.4
Horned Grebe -56% 0.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -10% 13.4
Green-winged Teal -33% 1.3
Pine Siskin -15% 5.6

Western Meadowlark © Ryan Schain

Western Meadowlark © Ryan Schain

Great Plains

Another week of scattered light to moderate movements occurred in the Great Plains, punctuated by the passage of a strong frontal boundary on Sunday night. Most intense of these flights were the moderate movements in the northern Plains on Friday, Saturday, and Tuesday nights. Although slightly more regular flights of migrants passed through the central and southern Plains during the period, these were never widespread and often hampered by rain.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Western Meadowlark 68% 23.8
White-crowned Sparrow 80% 9.5
Chipping Sparrow 59% 17.7
Savannah Sparrow 50% 11.8
Franklin's Gull 45% 11.2
Blue-winged Teal 20% 41.7
Hermit Thrush 75% 2.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 21% 31
Great-tailed Grackle 38% 9.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler 23% 14.9
Red-winged Blackbird 20% 51.5
Greater Yellowlegs 26% 11.6
Common Grackle 24% 40.5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 28% 10
Black Vulture 58% 2.6
American Coot 15% 23.8
Eastern Meadowlark 14% 22
White-throated Sparrow 21% 9.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -50% 10.2
American Tree Sparrow -74% 0.6
Ring-necked Duck -26% 7.8
Green-winged Teal -17% 12.2
Common Goldeneye -49% 1.4
Common Merganser -63% 0.7
Greater White-fronted Goose -72% 0.4
Lesser Scaup -15% 12.6
Bald Eagle -27% 4.4
Fox Sparrow -43% 1.2
Herring Gull -48% 1.2
Bufflehead -16% 7.5
Red-breasted Merganser -49% 0.5
Red-breasted Nuthatch -50% 0.3
Gadwall -9% 15.6
Brown Creeper -29% 1.1
Rough-legged Hawk -55% 0.3
Snow Goose -18% 2.3
Northern Shrike -78% 0

Violet-green Swallow © Ian Davies

Violet-green Swallow © Ian Davies

West

California and the Desert Southwest once again hosted the most extensive and intense migration activity to begin the period. These flights were light to moderate in most cases, but locally heavy at times, particularly on Tuesday night when they extended substantially farther north along the Pacific Coast. The second half of the week was much less extensive, with locally light to moderate activity continuing in the Desert Southwest on Tuesday night and California on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow 53% 15
Black-throated Gray Warbler 45% 5.8
Ash-throated Flycatcher 38% 7.4
Nashville Warbler 69% 2.9
Lazuli Bunting 112% 1.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 36% 7.7
Violet-green Swallow 32% 13.8
Western Sandpiper 62% 2.5
Wilson's Warbler 32% 7
Cliff Swallow 29% 10.4
Yellow-headed Blackbird 40% 4.6
Western Tanager 183% 1.3
Semipalmated Plover 101% 1.4
Vesper Sparrow 52% 2.2
Swainson's Hawk 19% 5.2
Tree Swallow 16% 18.8
Blue Grosbeak 863% 0.5
Osprey 20% 7.9
Common Grackle 23% 4.6
Caspian Tern 24% 4
Cassin's Vireo 38% 2
Least Sandpiper 20% 4.4
Wilson's Snipe 32% 2.9
Black-chinned Hummingbird 18% 6.3
American Pipit 23% 3.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye -33% 2.3
American Wigeon -15% 8.86
Varied Thrush -27% 1.6
Ring-necked Duck -11% 7
Broad-billed Hummingbird -23% 1.5
Common Merganser -13% 4.9
Hooded Merganser -23% 1.9
Northern Pintail -16% 3.5
Horned Grebe -14% 2.7
Snow Goose -25% 0.6
Canvasback -16% 1.7

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