So far, the negative NAO index that team BirdCast pondered late last year has yet to materialize with the strength of the October-November period. However, recent weather in Europe and some forecasts for the short term suggest the potential for facultative bird movements to occur. The Meteoalarm website paints a picture of cold temperatures and snow, among other potential severe weather, across the United Kingdom and portions of Europe. Although circulation at present over the North Atlantic is not terribly favorable for an arrival of European vagrants to North America (rather, vica versa . . . ), birders in Northeastern North America should be watchful, particularly if European birds are on the move in cold and snowy conditions in western Europe. Note, however, that some easterly flow between the UK and Iceland and Greenland is forecast, making for interesting speculation about the potential for displacement to those areas.
A strong low moves East past Greenland, creating primarily westerly flow across much of the North Atlantic. However, note that in advance of that storm’s passage, easterly flow may connect the UK and Iceland as well as Greenland. This may result in a slight chance for some Eastern promise . . .
