Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 10-17 March 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Mar 17, 2017

Fox Sparrow. Mike Bailey/Macaulay Library. eBird S35310036.

Continental Summary

Light to moderate flights in the West, primarily in California and the Desert Southwest, featured Black-chinned Hummingbird, Western Kingbird, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Wilson’s Warbler, and Hooded Oriole, while a mostly quiet and cooler East saw locally moderate movements featuring Swainson’s Hawk, Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, Hooded Warbler, Fox Sparrow, and Chipping Sparrow.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A quiet period for migration was dominated by the return of significant winter weather. A large storm dumped record snowfall on portions of the Northeast, while cool temperatures prevailed in many areas. Movements were locally light toward the end of the period in the central Mississippi River Valley, with the remainder of the region experiencing little if any significant flights. However, it should be noted that snow-induced movements were numerous, especially for areas New York and New England, where more terrestrial species like American Woodcock and numerous sparrows were concentrated in unprecedented numbers in urban areas like New York City.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Fox Sparrow 88% 12.3
Dark-eyed Junco 28% 44
White-throated Sparrow 29% 24.4
Brown-headed Cowbird 41% 9.3
Wilson's Snipe 41% 2.7
American Tree Sparrow 22% 13.1
Rusty Blackbird 37% 3.1
Song Sparrow 13% 35.9
Horned Lark 22% 4.7
American Robin 8% 42.2
Blue-winged Teal 26% 1.8
Chipping Sparrow 34% 1.2
Carolina Wren 7% 16.2
Common Grackle 5% 25.3
Wood Duck 9% 8.2
Common Loon 15% 3.1
Lesser Scaup 6% 6.6
Lesser Yellowlegs 14% 0.3
Pectoral Sandpiper 13% 0.2
Great Blue Heron 3% 8.2
Eastern Phoebe 5% 3.7
Canvasback 5% 3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Canada Goose -18% 34.6
Mallard -17% 28.1
Ring-necked Duck -18% 9.3
Northern Harrier -26% 2.6
Snow Goose -31% 1.8
Bald Eagle -16% 9.5
Common Merganser -16% 8
Turkey Vulture -13% 14.6
Ring-billed Gull -11% 19.9
Eastern Bluebird -11% 10.7
Fish Crow -18% 3.9
Rough-legged Hawk -39% 0.5
Field Sparrow -22% 1.4
American Crow -6% 41
Sandhill Crane -16% 3
Gadwall -11% 7.1
Laughing Gull -32% 0.3
Herring Gull -10% 11.8
Northern Pintail -13% 3.8
Bufflehead -8% 11.7
Green-winged Teal -11% 6.6
Long-tailed Duck -18% 1.4
Ruddy Turnstone -34% 0.1
American Coot -10% 5.4

Hooded Warbler. Apolinar Basora/Macaulay Library. eBird S35163737.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Locally moderate flights in Texas and Florida highlighted the weekend, while the remainder of the region stayed relatively quiet from a migration perspective. Tuesday and Wednesday nights saw slightly more extensive movements, particularly in Texas, where light to moderate flights were apparent. The greatest extent of movements occurred on Thursday night, when areas west of the Mississippi River and in Florida experienced light to locally moderate flights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow 59% 8.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 59% 6.2
Black-chinned Hummingbird 108% 1.2
Louisiana Waterthrush 106% 1.2
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 56% 2.4
Cliff Swallow 96% 1.2
Tree Swallow 22% 14.1
Yellow-throated Vireo 83% 1.1
Couch's Kingbird 37% 2.7
Black-and-white Warbler 29% 6
Purple Martin 21% 8.2
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 89% 0.8
Swainson's Hawk 215% 0.3
Black-necked Stilt 25% 2.8
White-eyed Vireo 10% 11.3
American Golden-Plover 66% 0.9
Hooded Warbler 287% 0.2
Hooded Oriole 129% 0.3
Golden-cheeked Warbler 82% 0.5
Blue-winged Teal 6% 11.3
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck 13% 4.6
Brown-headed Cowbird 7% 8.6
Black Skimmer 22% 2.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Robin -17% 19.7
Eastern Phoebe -13% 19.4
Gadwall -19% 5.3
Northern Pintail -60% 0.5
American Pipit -41% 0.8
Ring-necked Duck -22% 4.1
American Wigeon -24% 2.1
Ring-billed Gull -12% 11.9
Song Sparrow -11% 11.3
Pine Warbler -9% 12.8
Green-winged Teal -13% 4.4
Bufflehead -11% 4
Fish Crow -7% 17.4
Golden-crowned Kinglet -13% 3.8
Herring Gull -11% 3.7
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -8% 5.8
Redhead -14% 1.8
American Kestrel -7% 9.9
Eared Grebe -22% 0.7
Double-crested Cormorant -5% 23.7
Canvasback -34% 0.3

Pectoral Sandpiper. Rick Sammons/Macaulay Library. eBird S35363598.

Great Plains

The region generally experienced a quiet week, primarily a result of wintry weather passing through the region and cooler temperatures with northerly and westerly winds prevailing. But the end of the period, on Wednesday and Thursday nights, saw the southern Plains illuminated on radar. These movements were light, primarily, with isolated areas of more moderate amounts in southern Oklahoma.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-winged Teal 90% 13.7
Lesser Yellowlegs 273% 2.9
Northern Shoveler 43% 21.2
Lesser Scaup 45% 15.9
Long-billed Dowitcher 209% 2.7
Green-winged Teal 42% 19.1
Ruddy Duck 46% 10.6
Western Meadowlark 45% 15.7
Gadwall 28% 26.4
American Pipit 114% 3.3
Turkey Vulture 48% 8.9
Savannah Sparrow 53% 6.1
Pectoral Sandpiper 291% 1.4
Greater Scaup 86% 3.6
Ring-necked Duck 29% 17.2
Cinnamon Teal 242% 1.4
Killdeer 23% 31.6
Wilson's Snipe 84% 3.4
Greater Yellowlegs 61% 4.6
Great Blue Heron 27% 18
Fish Crow 117% 1.9
Double-crested Cormorant 30% 10.3
Least Sandpiper 101% 2.1
Bufflehead 23% 17.7
American Wigeon 24% 16

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-bellied Woodpecker -15% 19
White-breasted Nuthatch -21% 10.7
Brown Creeper -40% 2.2
Carolina Chickadee -22% 6.3
Tufted Titmouse -18% 10.7
Downy Woodpecker -13% 20.1
Rough-legged Hawk -38% 1.8
Golden-crowned Kinglet -38% 1.4
Dark-eyed Junco -8% 38.7
Yellow-rumped Warbler -16% 8.4
House Finch -10% 18
Sharp-shinned Hawk -37% 1.3
Carolina Wren -10% 12.6
Hermit Thrush -39% 0.7
Common Merganser -17% 4.5
Red-headed Woodpecker -25% 1.9
Canada Goose -6% 40.9
Red-shouldered Hawk -15% 4
American Goldfinch -5% 17
Harris's Sparrow -7% 12.1
American Woodcock -64% 0.2
Cackling Goose -13% 4.9

Warbling Vireo. Herb Elliot/Macaulay Library. eBird S35140266.

West

Light to moderate flights from the Pacific Northwest through the Desert Southwest kicked off the weekend. These movements became less extensive by Monday as unfavorable migration weather arrived in Washington and Oregon. California and the Desert Southwest continued to experience light to locally moderate flights through the period, with a return of locally light flights to the Pacific Northwest by Thursday night. Movements in the remainder of the region during this period were locally light.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 208% 1.9
Rufous Hummingbird 69% 3.8
Hooded Oriole 122% 2.2
Black-chinned Hummingbird 157% 1.5
Wilson's Warbler 181% 1.1
Western Kingbird 149% 1.4
Barn Swallow 57% 3.2
Violet-green Swallow 35% 5.7
Broad-billed Hummingbird 48% 3.2
Purple Finch 39% 3.7
Warbling Vireo 200% 0.6
Orange-crowned Warbler 22% 6.9
Broad-tailed Hummingbird 146% 0.7
Bullock's Oriole 126% 0.9
House Wren 26% 4.4
Cliff Swallow 37% 2.5
Tree Swallow 13% 9.4
Painted Redstart 97% 0.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 29% 1.8
Hutton's Vireo 16% 4.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cackling Goose -27% 3
Great Egret -22% 6.2
Black Phoebe -16% 15.8
Varied Thrush -36% 1.1
Ring-billed Gull -12% 8.1
Northern Pintail -13% 5.5
Common Goldeneye -11% 8.2
Bald Eagle -11% 7.7
Brown Pelican -24% 1.3
Osprey -16% 1.9
California Gull -11% 6.4
Lesser Scaup -11% 6.2
Herring Gull -19% 2
Glaucous-winged Gull -12% 4
Eared Grebe -14% 3.1
American Tree Sparrow -23% 0.6
Say's Phoebe -7% 7.9
Marbled Godwit -12% 1.7
Golden-crowned Kinglet -9% 2.4
Horned Grebe -4% 2.8
Common Loon -4% 2
Tundra Swan -4% 1.9
Brewer's Blackbird 1% 7.1

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