Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 13-20 May 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab May 20, 2016

Willow Flycatcher. David Brown/Macaulay Library. 26 May 2016. eBird S29917824

Willow Flycatcher. David Brown/Macaulay Library. 26 May 2016. eBird S29917824

Continental Summary

Light to moderate flights graced many areas from California east through the Rockies and featured Black Tern, Willow Flycatcher, Cordilleran Flycatcher, Gray Catbird, and Bobolink, while pulses of moderate and heavy flights featuring White-rumped Sandpiper, Common Nighthawk, Black-billed Cuckoo, Alder Flycatcher, Bay-breasted Warbler, and Canada Warbler were scattered across the East.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to heavy flights in the Ohio River Valley and along the Atlantic Coast kicked off the weekend, only to be followed by an almost complete shutdown in the wake of a passing cold front on Saturday night. With this passage, more favorable conditions built slowly back to the region and brought heavy flights to the Upper Midwest on Sunday night, and more extensively to the mid Atlantic states, New Jersey and even Long Island, on Monday night. However, conditions did not allow these flights to overspread the entirety of the region, with most moderate to heavy flights restricted to the west of the Appalachians or south of the Adirondacks and southern tier of New York. Aside from the notable exception of locally moderate to heavy flights in New England on Wednesday and Thursday nights, the most extensive and intense movements in the region were significantly farther west.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Willow Flycatcher 250% 4.3
Eastern Wood-Pewee 77% 15.9
Wilson's Warbler 62% 9.2
Canada Warbler 72% 7.9
Blackpoll Warbler 41% 12.6
Common Nighthawk 90% 3.7
Alder Flycatcher 470% 1.2
Red-eyed Vireo 40% 28.3
Cedar Waxwing 43% 12.3
Mourning Warbler 118% 2.1
American Redstart 21% 34.2
Great Crested Flycatcher 32% 25
Semipalmated Sandpiper 47% 3.5
Magnolia Warbler 18% 20.9
Swainson's Thrush 19% 13.8
Acadian Flycatcher 40% 4.4
Ruddy Turnstone 54% 1.8
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 105% 0.5
Olive-sided Flycatcher 61% 0.9
Gray-cheeked Thrush 27% 3.5
Semipalmated Plover 32% 3.9
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 20% 15.6
Common Yellowthroat 15% 44.9
Eastern Kingbird 17% 21.4
Philadelphia Vireo 22% 1.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -71% 3.3
White-throated Sparrow -56% 9.9
Palm Warbler -46% 6.7
Yellow-rumped Warbler -40% 18.4
Sharp-shinned Hawk -62% 0.7
Solitary Sandpiper -44% 3.8
White-crowned Sparrow -40% 8.4
Nashville Warbler -41% 8.3
Greater Yellowlegs -35% 3
Blue-headed Vireo -34% 5.8
Lesser Yellowlegs -32% 3.3
Hermit Thrush -31% 3.3
Pine Siskin -31% 2.2
Prairie Warbler -30% 3.4
Swamp Sparrow -16% 8.4
Merlin -47% 0.5
Black-throated Green Warbler -25% 14.3
American Pipit -58% 0.3
Blue-winged Warbler -19% 5.9
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -14% 22.3
Broad-winged Hawk -27% 2.3
American Woodcock -34% 1.4
Rusty Blackbird -66% 0.1

Black-billed Cuckoo. Sue Barth/Macaulay Library. 26 May 2016. eBird S29920861

Black-billed Cuckoo. Sue Barth/Macaulay Library. 26 May 2016. eBird S29920861

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to heavy flights dominated the region to the west of the Mississippi River for the first half of the period, while areas farther east were significantly less active. But a change came by Monday night, when more extensive movements were apparent across the entire region. The remainder of the period was much less uniform with respect to the distribution of migration, in particular because of the persistent intense and extensive stormy conditions in the southeast. Migration was primarily moderate where it occurred, and noticeably absent, or at best light, in areas where intense rain and thunderstorms occurred.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 249% 2.1
Black Tern 124% 2.9
Wilson's Warbler 95% 5.6
Least Bittern 97% 2.8
Franklin's Gull 78% 2.4
Willow Flycatcher 83% 1.7
Western Wood-Pewee 219% 1.3
Canada Warbler 58% 3
Alder Flycatcher 139% 1.1
Least Tern 35% 7.4
Purple Gallinule 59% 2.3
Ruddy Turnstone 38% 5.4
Sanderling 42% 4.7
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck 22% 9.3
Black Skimmer 51% 3
Olive-sided Flycatcher 80% 1.4
Clay-colored Thrush 154% 0.8
Least Flycatcher 36% 3.9
Wood Stork 44% 3
Mourning Warbler 58% 1.5
Black-billed Cuckoo 398% 0.7
Yellow Warbler 39% 10.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-throated Blue Warbler -76% 0.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -59% 1.3
Blackpoll Warbler -57% 2.2
Solitary Sandpiper -55% 1.3
Cape May Warbler -75% 0.2
Bobolink -51% 1.4
Scarlet Tanager -41% 3
Palm Warbler -89% 0.1
Lesser Yellowlegs -38% 2.7
Baltimore Oriole -40% 2.5
Gray Catbird -26% 8.7
Connecticut Warbler -81% 0.1
Veery -57% 0.6
Pectoral Sandpiper -48% 1.3
House Wren -40% 1.9
Wood Thrush -29% 4.6
Least Sandpiper -26% 5.5
Nashville Warbler -46% 0.8
Savannah Sparrow -55% 0.8
Greater Yellowlegs -46% 1.4
Black-and-white Warbler -21% 4.6
Clay-colored Sparrow -58% 0.3
White-throated Sparrow -92% 0
Ovenbird -19% 3.5
Cedar Waxwing -18% 8.2

Bay-breasted Warbler. Nathan Martineau/Macaulay Library. 15 May 2016. eBird S29697492.

Bay-breasted Warbler. Nathan Martineau/Macaulay Library. 15 May 2016. eBird S29697492.

Great Plains

A quiet start for migration in this period quickly became much more active. In favorable conditions, moderate to heavy flights occurred in many areas of the northern and central Plains from Saturday through to the end of the period. These flights reached, perhaps, their greatest intensity and extent on Wednesday night. However, stormy conditions in the southern Plains kept movements somewhat less intense and more localized, generally. This was particularly true on Monday and Thursday nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Redstart 64% 18.4
Chestnut-sided Warbler 81% 5.9
Philadelphia Vireo 87% 4.8
Black Tern 34% 8.8
Canada Warbler 339% 2
Mourning Warbler 108% 3.3
Alder Flycatcher 156% 2.9
Wilson's Warbler 39% 9.1
Tennessee Warbler 39% 16.9
Least Flycatcher 28% 21.6
Yellow-headed Blackbird 45% 12.2
Bobolink 44% 7.4
Willow Flycatcher 88% 2.7
Eastern Wood-Pewee 34% 14.7
Yellow Warbler 24% 44.4
Gray Catbird 24% 23.5
Bank Swallow 45% 5.3
Gray-cheeked Thrush 56% 3.6
Bay-breasted Warbler 107% 1.4
Common Yellowthroat 22% 20
Magnolia Warbler 23% 5.4
Olive-sided Flycatcher 55% 1.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-crowned Sparrow -70% 3.4
Lincoln's Sparrow -59% 3.1
Harris's Sparrow -53% 3.7
Mississippi Kite -58% 2.6
Baird's Sandpiper -54% 2
White-throated Sparrow -35% 4.8
Orange-crowned Warbler -37% 5.5
Chuck-will's-widow -85% 0.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler -29% 10.8
Blue Grosbeak -50% 2.4
Lesser Yellowlegs -29% 5.6
Greater Yellowlegs -46% 1.5
Savannah Sparrow -33% 4.3
Ash-throated Flycatcher -93% 0
Hooded Warbler -88% 0.1
Solitary Sandpiper -55% 0.8
Pied-billed Grebe -36% 3.6
Northern Bobwhite -28% 5.7
American Wigeon -49% 1.4
Black-crowned Night-Heron -59% 0.4
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -32% 3.8
Long-billed Dowitcher -35% 2.6
Black-necked Stilt -49% 0.8
White-faced Ibis -39% 1.5
Lark Sparrow -25% 13.2

Bobolink. Don Coons/Macaulay Library. 16 May 2016. eBird S29702099

Bobolink. Don Coons/Macaulay Library. 16 May 2016. eBird S29702099

West

On Friday night, moderate flights occurred from California and the Desert Southwest locally north and east through the Rockies. In the latter areas, in particular, a stationary front farther east brought favorable conditions that allowed locally heavy flights to occur. In the days that followed, increasingly scattered precipitation across the region kept most movements local and light, but some areas of the Rockies continued to experience significant movements. These movements included moderate to locally heavy flights in the northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday, as well as similarly intense flights in the central Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday, and even the southern Rockies on Thursday. Note that a significant pattern change for weather in the Pacific Northwest kept movements for the period light at best.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Willow Flycatcher 259% 2.4
Gray Catbird 89% 2.8
Eastern Kingbird 73% 2.4
Western Wood-Pewee 44% 17.5
Swainson's Thrush 41% 9.5
Blue Grosbeak 53% 3.8
Cordilleran Flycatcher 80% 1.4
Least Flycatcher 72% 1.5
Bobolink 137% 0.5
White-rumped Sandpiper 204% 0.4
Cedar Waxwing 17% 8.3
Dusky Flycatcher 20% 4.3
Least Tern 45% 1
Western Tanager 14% 19.5
Black Tern 34% 1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Least Sandpiper -73% 0.5
Western Sandpiper -62% 0.9
Long-billed Dowitcher -58% 1.1
Dunlin -67% 0.5
Townsend's Warbler -35% 3.1
Lark Bunting -54% 0.9
Common Loon -47% 0.9
Whimbrel -43% 0.9
Ruddy Turnstone -83% 0.1
Mississippi Kite -74% 0.1
Bufflehead -53% 1.3
Semipalmated Plover -47% 0.6
Brown Thrasher -38% 0.8
American Pipit -59% 0.3
Pectoral Sandpiper -81% 0.1
Gray Flycatcher -34% 1.2
Short-billed Dowitcher -69% 0.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler -17% 14.8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -26% 3
Northern Parula -77% 0.1
Orange-crowned Warbler -15% 10.2
Black-throated Gray Warbler -19% 4.3
Black-bellied Plover -41% 0.6

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY