Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 18-25 August 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Aug 24, 2017

American Golden-Plover. Aidan Kiley/Macaulay Library. eBird S38789504.

Continental Summary

Light to moderate flights featuring Western Grebe, Clark’s Grebe, Pectoral Sandpiper, Red-headed Woodpecker, Wilson’s Warbler, Townsend’s Warbler, and Nashville Warbler  were the norm in the West, particularly toward the end of the forecast period, while widespread moderate to locally heavy flights featuring Blue-winged Teal, Northern Shoveler, American Golden-Plover, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Nashville Warbler, Wilson’s Warbler were the norm for the East. The total solar eclipse of 21 August also featured some interesting “migration” behaviors, please see our post to check out the observations!

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered light to moderate flights occurred across the region on the weekend, with the most intense flights occurring in the Upper Midwest on Sunday night. With the passage of a frontal boundary on Tuesday, more intense flights occurred in its wake; moderate to locally heavy flights were apparent from Minnesota south through the central Mississippi River Valley. Flights of this intensity gradually shifted farther east to end the period, as more favorable migration conditions spread into the region with the movement of the frontal boundary to the east.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Nighthawk 76% 4.1
Tennessee Warbler 128% 1.8
Magnolia Warbler 111% 2.3
Canada Warbler 85% 2.8
Chestnut-sided Warbler 60% 4.3
Blackburnian Warbler 92% 2.1
Least Flycatcher 68% 2.9
Black-and-white Warbler 44% 6.9
American Redstart 37% 9.8
Wilson's Warbler 160% 1
Blue-winged Teal 42% 3.6
Olive-sided Flycatcher 74% 1.5
Baird's Sandpiper 55% 2.3
Baltimore Oriole 17% 12.1
Green-winged Teal 56% 2
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 100% 0.9
American Golden-Plover 115% 0.7
Red-eyed Vireo 13% 15.7
Turkey Vulture 9% 20.9
Buff-breasted Sandpiper 84% 1
Swainson's Thrush 125% 0.6
Ovenbird 47% 2.6
Blue-winged Warbler 44% 1.8
Eastern Wood-Pewee 7% 21.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Indigo Bunting -36% 7.9
Yellow Warbler -42% 4
Song Sparrow -20% 26.5
Purple Martin -32% 4.4
Red-winged Blackbird -25% 13.8
Eastern Kingbird -23% 14.1
Barn Swallow -14% 28.4
Swamp Sparrow -38% 1.7
Cliff Swallow -31% 2.1
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -25% 3.3
Bank Swallow -25% 3.1
Chipping Sparrow -13% 13.9
Tree Swallow -13% 14.2
Marsh Wren -29% 1.4
Sedge Wren -36% 0.7
Eastern Towhee -14% 7.8
Least Bittern -40% 0.4
Cedar Waxwing -7% 23.5
Dickcissel -39% 0.5
Common Grackle -8% 15.7
Green Heron -8% 10.3
Glossy Ibis -24% 1.1
Field Sparrow -15% 5.2
Short-billed Dowitcher -12% 3.7

Northern Waterthrush. Andrew Dobson/Macaulay Library. eBird S38600867.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to moderate flights were widespread across the region, probably in the company of many insects and bats. But with the passage of a frontal boundary, more intense movements of birds took flight on Wednesday night, with locally moderate to heavy flights, particularly in the southern Appalachians. These intense flights continued through the end of the period, primarily east of the Mississippi River valley.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-winged Teal 88% 3.9
Pine Warbler 29% 5.7
Northern Parula 25% 6.6
Northern Waterthrush 77% 1
Black-bellied Plover 26% 4.7
American Redstart 28% 3.4
Caspian Tern 29% 3.1
Yellow Warbler 21% 6.2
Western Sandpiper 27% 3.8
Olive-sided Flycatcher 43% 0.8
Baird's Sandpiper 38% 0.9
Hooded Warbler 24% 2.3
Northern Shoveler 49% 0.6
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 8% 18
Willet 11% 7.2
Loggerhead Shrike 10% 5.9
Least Sandpiper 10% 10
Canada Warbler 65% 0.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Indigo Bunting -32% 5.1
Chipping Sparrow -28% 4
Common Yellowthroat -33% 1.9
Red-winged Blackbird -20% 8.5
Pectoral Sandpiper -23% 4.2
Brown-headed Cowbird -29% 2.5
Eastern Kingbird -16% 7.6
Eastern Towhee -13% 11.9
Cattle Egret -14% 8.6
Blue Grosbeak -16% 6.1
Purple Martin -22% 3.2
Northern Mockingbird -10% 30.1
Eastern Bluebird -11% 14
Black-chinned Hummingbird -20% 2.6
Northern Bobwhite -21% 2
Mississippi Kite -12% 6
Cliff Swallow -20% 2.4
Barn Swallow -8% 19.9
Eastern Meadowlark -18% 2.4
Laughing Gull -11% 13.1

Wilson’s Warbler. Nick Saunders/Macaulay Library. eBird S38679875.

Great Plains

Local light and moderate flights peppered the region for the first half of the period, with the most extensive movement occurring on Monday night. But the most intense flights of the period occurred the following day, when locally heavy flights were apparent in the southern Plains with the passage of a frontal system. As the period came to a close, intensities and extents were generally light and local, respectively.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wilson's Warbler 190% 2.1
Bald Eagle 45% 6.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 66% 2.7
Pine Siskin 84% 1.8
Green-winged Teal 54% 2.3
Turkey Vulture 11% 29.1
American Redstart 53% 3
Baltimore Oriole 20% 13.2
Chestnut-sided Warbler 142% 0.8
Northern Flicker 15% 15
Red-headed Woodpecker 14% 14.6
Least Flycatcher 34% 4.1
Magnolia Warbler 166% 0.6
Nashville Warbler 217% 0.4
Canada Goose 10% 20.2
Brewer's Blackbird 59% 1.6
Dark-eyed Junco 144% 0.8
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 7% 16.1
Mallard 7% 18.7
Red-tailed Hawk 6% 21.6
Mourning Warbler 177% 0.3
Ferruginous Hawk 61% 0.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue Grosbeak -57% 1.8
Pectoral Sandpiper -46% 3.6
Purple Martin -45% 3.7
Indigo Bunting -37% 8.5
Western Kingbird -40% 5.9
Song Sparrow -36% 3.8
Common Nighthawk -30% 4.5
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -27% 6
Eastern Phoebe -29% 5.8
Orchard Oriole -49% 1.8
Semipalmated Sandpiper -46% 2.2
Great Egret -19% 10.8
Fish Crow -59% 0.8
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -26% 4.8
House Wren -22% 7.2
Solitary Sandpiper -37% 2.3
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -34% 3.2
Eastern Bluebird -18% 9.6
Eastern Towhee -60% 0.8
Marsh Wren -53% 0.9
Wilson's Phalarope -38% 2
Cliff Swallow -21% 8

Pectoral Sandpiper. Hendrik Herlyn/Macaulay Library. eBird S38751959.

West

Typically intense movements in the West featured light to moderate flights last weekend. By Monday night more extensive flights were apparent from California through the Desert Southwest. This pattern generally continued for the duration of the period, with some areas of the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies experiencing even higher intensity flights locally (e.g. on Thursday night).

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wilson's Warbler 32% 10.5
Western Grebe 22% 3.2
Orange-crowned Warbler 16% 6.5
Nashville Warbler 28% 2.3
Yellow Warbler 10% 13.4
Townsend's Warbler 31% 1.8
Wilson's Snipe 28% 1.9
Red-breasted Nuthatch 9% 12.7
Pectoral Sandpiper 51% 1
White-faced Ibis 13% 4.9
Willow Flycatcher 16% 2.8
Clark's Grebe 20% 1.5
Common Yellowthroat 7% 9.2
Loggerhead Shrike 11% 3.8
Red-headed Woodpecker 47% 0.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler 9% 5.8
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 15% 3
American Goldfinch 4% 14.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cliff Swallow -33% 4.7
Black-bellied Plover -40% 1.4
Common Murre -38% 1.5
Broad-billed Hummingbird -56% 0.8
Western Wood-Pewee -17% 10.5
Brown Pelican -23% 3.8
Black-headed Grosbeak -21% 6.4
Tree Swallow -25% 3.6
Semipalmated Plover -22% 3
Rufous Hummingbird -15% 6.5
Cassin's Kingbird -25% 2.5
Willet -20% 2.7
Eastern Kingbird -17% 3.1
Bald Eagle -17% 3.2

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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