Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 18-25 September 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 25, 2015

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Ryan Schain.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Ryan Schain.

Continental Summary

Moderate and heavy flights were the norm this week for many areas of the country, featuring Greater White-fronted Goose, Ring-necked Duck, Say’s Phoebe, Varied Thrush, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Fox Sparrow, and Golden-crowned Sparrow in the West and American Bittern, Northern Flicker, Eastern Phoebe, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Nashville Warbler, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Palm Warbler, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, and White-crowned Sparrow in the East.

Want to know what species will be on the move this week? Visit our forecast for this week.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Low pressure and associated precipitation in the vicinity of the Great Lakes brought mostly unfavorable conditions to the region to start the period. But with its passage heavy migration followed, first to the west of the Appalachians on Saturday then east of the Appalachians on Sunday. Moderate to locally heavy flights continued for the remainder of the period, scattered across the region. Particularly active were areas of the eastern Great Lakes and New England, as strong high pressure to the north in Canada brought northeasterly winds.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-throated Sparrow 112% 9
Yellow-rumped Warbler 83% 14.8
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 140% 6.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 82% 6.3
Palm Warbler 55% 11.5
Blue-headed Vireo 65% 6.1
Lincoln's Sparrow 55% 3.9
Dark-eyed Junco 71% 3
Swamp Sparrow 35% 5.6
Orange-crowned Warbler 76% 1.3
Savannah Sparrow 33% 5.6
White-crowned Sparrow 155% 0.6
Eastern Phoebe 20% 26
Dunlin 165% 0.9
Gray-cheeked Thrush 52% 2.9
Ruddy Duck 79% 1.1
Winter Wren 63% 1.3
American Pipit 51% 1.2
Hermit Thrush 57% 1.7
Sharp-shinned Hawk 17% 8
Rusty Blackbird 87% 0.5
Northern Flicker 11% 39.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Warbling Vireo -62% 1.9
Great Crested Flycatcher -76% 0.6
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -54% 2.2
Veery -58% 1.2
Baltimore Oriole -67% 0.9
Canada Warbler -69% 0.5
Prairie Warbler -61% 0.8
Barn Swallow -52% 2.6
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -29% 14.8
Eastern Kingbird -75% 0.5
Chestnut-sided Warbler -33% 5.3
Bobolink -41% 1.9
Least Sandpiper -34% 3.5
Yellow Warbler -50% 1.8
Eastern Wood-Pewee -23% 13.2
Blue-winged Warbler -56% 0.4
Blackburnian Warbler -32% 2.4
Green Heron -22% 4.6
Semipalmated Plover -31% 3.2
Chimney Swift -23% 12.9
White-eyed Vireo -28% 3.7
American Redstart -21% 17.7
Golden-winged Warbler -41% 0.6
Least Flycatcher -29% 1.8

House Wren, Ryan Schain.

House Wren, Ryan Schain.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A weekend of primarily light to moderate flights kicked off the period for the region, with some locally heavier flights in the southern Appalachians and coastal bend of Georgia and Florida. A similar pattern continued for many areas close to the immediate Gulf of Mexico coast and through portions of the southeastern Appalachians and coastal plain through mid week. However, a disturbance moving ashore quieted flights substantial to end the period, with primarily light to moderate flights occurring west of the Appalachians and Mississippi River.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 93% 5.2
Swainson's Thrush 83% 6.7
Palm Warbler 47% 4.6
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 117% 1.6
Nashville Warbler 83% 5.2
Gray Catbird 29% 14.6
Wood Thrush 53% 3.1
Common Yellowthroat 26% 17.1
House Wren 46% 2.8
Bay-breasted Warbler 57% 1.4
Merlin 34% 2.5
Scarlet Tanager 25% 6.8
Philadelphia Vireo 45% 1.6
Orange-crowned Warbler 93% 0.8
American Kestrel 23% 5.3
Peregrine Falcon 44% 1.4
Northern Harrier 40% 1.7
Gray-cheeked Thrush 46% 1
Northern Flicker 16% 8.9
Savannah Sparrow 79% 0.4
Brown Thrasher 11% 17.1
Lesser Goldfinch 30% 5.1
Magnolia Warbler 10% 9.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Nighthawk -50% 1
Eastern Kingbird -41% 3.4
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -63% 0.4
Great Crested Flycatcher -32% 4.8
Kentucky Warbler -64% 0.3
Prothonotary Warbler -42% 0.9
Louisiana Waterthrush -70% 0.2
Bell's Vireo -88% 0
Canada Warbler -41% 0.8
Baltimore Oriole -24% 5.9
Blackburnian Warbler -32% 2.7
Bank Swallow -40% 0.8
Semipalmated Sandpiper -31% 1.4
Least Tern -79% 0.1
Olive-sided Flycatcher -44% 0.6
Blue-winged Warbler -35% 1.4
Northern Parula -30% 10.8
Upland Sandpiper -51% 0.1
Red-eyed Vireo -22% 14.5
Purple Martin -31% 1.6
Barn Swallow -14% 8.8
Semipalmated Plover -19% 3.2
Least Flycatcher -27% 2
Mississippi Kite -41% 0.8
Black-and-white Warbler -23% 10.1

American Bittern, Ryan Schain.

American Bittern, Ryan Schain.

Great Plains

An active start for the southern Plains featured a pulse of heavy movements on Friday night, but this intensity diminished quickly – Saturday saw almost all of the region’s flights localized and limited to light to moderate intensity. Changes were in the air by Monday night, as a new pulse of heavy flights was apparent in the northern and central Plains. But these, too, were reasonably short-lived: precipitation, some of which was intense, moving across the region kept flights localized, though to a slightly lesser extent than the weekend, and limited to light to moderate intensities for the remainder of the period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Orange-crowned Warbler 98% 18.5
Spotted Towhee 117% 7.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler 60% 18.6
White-crowned Sparrow 72% 5
American Bittern 577% 2
Dark-eyed Junco 68% 5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 38% 13.8
Fox Sparrow 484% 1.3
White-throated Sparrow 43% 7
Lincoln's Sparrow 37% 10.3
Northern Flicker 30% 48.7
Purple Finch 768% 1.3
Common Grackle 48% 17.9
Swamp Sparrow 85% 2.4
Eastern Meadowlark 55% 5.7
Townsend's Solitaire 133% 1.3
Harris's Sparrow 154% 1
Eastern Bluebird 22% 23.1
Nashville Warbler 20% 15.2
American Crow 13% 37.3
Eastern Phoebe 15% 17.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Magnolia Warbler -98% 0
Baltimore Oriole -90% 0.3
Least Flycatcher -72% 1.6
Eastern Kingbird -96% 0.2
Warbling Vireo -61% 2.9
American Redstart -65% 1.7
Olive-sided Flycatcher -97% 0
Great Crested Flycatcher -68% 1.2
Yellow-throated Vireo -74% 0.5
Yellow Warbler -52% 3.2
Black Tern -70% 0.8
Wilson's Warbler -47% 4.2
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -43% 9.6
Eastern Wood-Pewee -46% 4.3
Spotted Sandpiper -60% 1.6
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -53% 2.5
Bank Swallow -66% 0.7
Bell's Vireo -91% 0.1
Wilson's Phalarope -75% 0.4
Barn Swallow -28% 15.8
Mississippi Kite -59% 0.9
Black-and-white Warbler -40% 2.3
Upland Sandpiper -69% 0.4
Red-eyed Vireo -27% 6.9
Semipalmated Sandpiper -61% 0.7

Say's Phoebe, Ryan Schain.

Say’s Phoebe, Ryan Schain.

West

Moderate flights kicked off the weekend in the Pacific Northwest, Central Valley, and Desert Southwest. The northern portion of the region continued to experience such flights on Monday night, with this pulses connected with the flights occurring in the northern Plains. After a brief respite in the action on Tuesday, when primarily light movements were scattered across the region, another light to moderate pulse came to the Desert Southwest on Wednesday and Thursday nights. Some of these movements, particularly in the southern Rockies, were locally heavy.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Sparrow 102% 10.2
Varied Thrush 277% 2
Yellow-rumped Warbler 46% 23.8
Fox Sparrow 61% 5.3
White-crowned Sparrow 34% 29.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 38% 9.6
Greater White-fronted Goose 87% 2.4
Lincoln's Sparrow 32% 9
Cackling Goose 84% 1.7
Spotted Towhee 16% 19.4
Townsend's Warbler 19% 8
American Pipit 35% 4.5
Dark-eyed Junco 21% 17.9
Eared Grebe 15% 7
Northern Flicker 12% 29.7
American Coot 13% 17.5
American Golden-Plover 103% 0.5
Say's Phoebe 13% 10.2
Black-bellied Plover 17% 4.2
American Wigeon 16% 6.4
Hermit Thrush 20% 3.1
Ring-necked Duck 23% 2.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Gray Catbird -45% 0.8
Western Wood-Pewee -40% 2.8
Red-necked Phalarope -41% 2.3
Violet-green Swallow -48% 3.3
Lazuli Bunting -37% 1.3
Bobolink -78% 0.1
Caspian Tern -35% 2.6
Black-headed Grosbeak -36% 1.6
Barn Swallow -26% 13.9
Black-chinned Hummingbird -32% 2.4
Rufous Hummingbird -41% 1
Common Nighthawk -62% 0.2
MacGillivray's Warbler -25% 2.3
Vaux's Swift -41% 2.6
Warbling Vireo -20% 5.2
Wilson's Warbler -20% 12
Western Kingbird -39% 1.1
Western Tanager -17% 8.3
Cliff Swallow -48% 0.6
Painted Redstart -43% 0.3
Blue Grosbeak -27% 1.5

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