Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 20-27 March 2015

Benjamin Van Doren The Cornell Lab Mar 27, 2015

Blue-winged Teal © Ian Davies

Blue-winged Teal © Ian Davies

Continental Summary

While the West saw early and late forecast period light to moderate movements along the Pacific Coast and in the Desert Southwest including Broad-tailed Hummingbird, Orange-crowned Warbler, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Bullock’s Oriole, scattered light to moderate movements peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday nights including Greater White-fronted Goose, Blue-winged Teal, Barn Swallow, Brown Thrasher, Lapland Longspur, Vesper Sparrow, and Chipping Sparrow increased in the East.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

The Central Mississippi and Ohio River valleys were the active portions of the region last weekend, though active is an overstatement as migration was generally light to moderate. A disturbance moving into and across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday nights saw southerly winds and warming temperatures with its advance, facilitating slightly more widespread movements of the same magnitude from the Ohio River valley and northern Appalachians east to the Atlantic. This disturbance grew into a substantial cold front that ended the period by shutting down most movements with its passage.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Phoebe 85% 7.8
Horned Grebe 76% 8.4
Chipping Sparrow 399% 2.4
Great Blue Heron 49% 13.6
Pied-billed Grebe 55% 5.9
Bonaparte's Gull 89% 2.6
Blue-winged Teal 55% 3.6
Tree Swallow 44% 7.0
Common Loon 51% 4.5
Osprey 47% 3.8
Wilson's Snipe 69% 2.1
Brown Thrasher 167% 1.3
Double-crested Cormorant 36% 5.4
Wood Duck 24% 13.7
Great Egret 129% 1.0
Song Sparrow 16% 36.3
Belted Kingfisher 42% 4.1
Hooded Merganser 17% 15.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 132% 0.4
Fox Sparrow 24% 4.6
American Robin 13% 49.6
Eastern Towhee 36% 4.2
Northern Flicker 26% 8.8
Bufflehead 19% 16.4
Turkey Vulture 16% 22.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Tree Sparrow -18% 8.8
Canvasback -20% 4.3
Common Goldeneye -10% 8.6
Greater Scaup -12% 4.3
Greater White-fronted Goose -45% 0.9
Horned Lark -26% 3.5
Lapland Longspur -42% 0.2
Northern Pintail -30% 4.3
Red-necked Grebe -18% 0.8
Redhead -14% 7.3
Sandhill Crane -35% 4.4
Short-eared Owl -37% 0.2
Snow Bunting -28% 0.3
Trumpeter Swan -33% 1.1
Tundra Swan -28% 3.1

Barn Swallow © Benjamin Van Doren

Barn Swallow © Benjamin Van Doren

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Local light to moderate movements bookended the weekend to kick off the forecast period, although most movements were at best and primarily close to the immediate Gulf and Florida coasts as precipitation passed through the region. Monday though Wednesday nights saw these movements reach their greatest extents, particularly in Texas and Florida. But by the end of the forecast period, the southern limits of a passing cold front shut down most movements away from central and southern Florida, where moderate movements highlighted incoming migrants from Cuba.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow 69% 11.1
Black-and-white Warbler 24% 8.6
Black-chinned Hummingbird 43% 2.1
Black-throated Green Warbler 62% 0.8
Broad-winged Hawk 44% 1.2
Bronzed Cowbird 70% 1.0
Brown Thrasher 14% 14.2
Brown-headed Cowbird 10% 15.0
Chipping Sparrow 11% 16.8
Cliff Swallow 68% 1.5
Great Crested Flycatcher 46% 4.1
Louisiana Waterthrush 60% 2.6
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 58% 6.4
Prairie Warbler 31% 3.5
Purple Martin 16% 9.4
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 49% 4.2
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 47% 2.8
Swainson's Hawk 90% 1.1
White-eyed Vireo 18% 13.2
Yellow-throated Vireo 54% 2.5
Yellow-throated Warbler 18% 4.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Canvasback -51% 0.4
American Pipit -49% 0.5
Hooded Merganser -38% 1.6
Redhead -37% 2.4
American Wigeon -27% 2.5
Ring-necked Duck -54% 2.7
Sandhill Crane -44% 3.0
Green-winged Teal -37% 3.4
Ruddy Duck -34% 3.4
Lesser Scaup -36% 4.5
Gadwall -30% 5.6
Dark-eyed Junco -26% 6.5
Ring-billed Gull -26% 11.1
Eastern Phoebe -20% 16.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler -17% 27.3

Northern Shoveler © Ian Davies

Northern Shoveler © Ian Davies

Great Plains

The central and southern Plains experienced scattered light to moderate movements over the weekend. With the exception of continued migration in Oklahoma on Monday night, these movements all but shutdown as low pressure moved in the region. The arrival and continued presence of unsettled and generally marginal or unfavorable conditions kept most migrants grounded for the remainder of the period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-winged Teal 182% 24.6
Turkey Vulture 157% 16.6
Eastern Phoebe 75% 19.9
Northern Shoveler 50% 25.5
Bufflehead 59% 19.5
Horned Grebe 136% 5.1
Vesper Sparrow 264% 3.8
Ruddy Duck 57% 13.6
Great Blue Heron 49% 18.5
Green-winged Teal 39% 21.2
Gadwall 38% 25.1
Common Grackle 37% 25.0
Wood Duck 50% 10.0
Pied-billed Grebe 52% 9.2
Ring-necked Duck 43% 19.7
Western Meadowlark 43% 18.3
American Coot 40% 15.5
Savannah Sparrow 68% 5.7
American Pipit 103% 3.2
Red-breasted Merganser 97% 4.6
Greater Yellowlegs 66% 4.9
Chipping Sparrow 227% 1.8
American Wigeon 34% 16.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Woodcock -81% 0.4
American Tree Sparrow -24% 7.7

Orange-crowned Warbler © Ian Davies

Orange-crowned Warbler © Ian Davies

West

Widely scattered and primarily light movements kicked off the weekend in parts of California and the Desert Southwest, continuing in similar fashion into the middle of the work week. Other areas of the West experienced scattered but at times significant precipitation, keeping birds grounded where it fell. However, the departure of these disturbances brought more extensive light to moderate movements to end the period on Wednesday and Thursday nights, particularly from the Pacific Northwest south and east through the Desert Southwest.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow 30% 4.4
Bell's Vireo 58% 3.1
Black-chinned Hummingbird 51% 1.9
Black-headed Grosbeak 166% 0.3
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 16% 2.3
Broad-tailed Hummingbird 230% 0.6
Bullock's Oriole 59% 2.5
Greater Yellowlegs 19% 5.4
Hooded Oriole 42% 3.9
Lucy's Warbler 36% 4.0
Orange-crowned Warbler 20% 9.9
Osprey 25% 3.8
Tree Swallow 16% 12.7
Turkey Vulture 11% 17.6
Violet-green Swallow 41% 6.9
White-winged Dove 22% 4.2
Wilson's Snipe 28% 2.2
Wilson's Warbler 29% 2.7
Yellow Warbler 45% 1.4
Yellow-headed Blackbird 44% 2.0

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Tree Sparrow -52% 0.2
Tundra Swan -40% 0.7
American Dipper -31% 0.5
Mew Gull -29% 1.5
Glaucous-winged Gull -29% 2.6
Herring Gull -25% 1.4
Common Goldeneye -19% 6.3
Varied Thrush -17% 5.0

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