Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 3-10 April 2015

Benjamin Van Doren The Cornell Lab Apr 10, 2015

American Redstart © Ryan Schain

American Redstart © Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

An active open and close of the forecast period in the West featured light to moderate movements primarily in the southern portion of the region and included Western Sandpiper, Franklin’s Gull, Cassin’s Vireo, Black-throated Gray Warbler, and Nashville Warbler, while increasingly widespread moderate movements punctuated the period in the East and included Franklin’s Gull, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Common Yellowthroat, Chipping Sparrow, and Summer Tanager.

What species will migrating this week? If you are interested, please read our forecast!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Chipping Sparrow © Ian Davies

Chipping Sparrow © Ian Davies

Upper Midwest and Northeast

What began as a quiet start in the wake of a strong cold front became widespread (with the exception of New England) light to moderate movements by Sunday night. However, this was the region’s greatest extent of migration for the week – unsettled weather over the remainder of the period kept migrants grounded in many areas, and where birds were flying movements were local and mostly light to moderate.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Belted Kingfisher 41% 9.1
Blue-winged Teal 23% 9.5
Brown Thrasher 101% 5.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 28% 21.3
Chipping Sparrow 129% 13.6
Eastern Towhee 75% 10.1
Field Sparrow 65% 8.1
Great Egret 35% 6.0
Hermit Thrush 102% 4.8
Northern Flicker 45% 23.5
Osprey 21% 10.0
Pied-billed Grebe 21% 12.1
Pine Warbler 56% 4.7
Purple Finch 50% 3.5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 201% 6.3
Snowy Egret 82% 1.5
Swamp Sparrow 92% 5.5
Tree Swallow 15% 19.9
Vesper Sparrow 70% 1.3
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 19% 5.6
Yellow-rumped Warbler 55% 5.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Wigeon -17% 5.9
American Woodcock -54% 1.5
Cackling Goose -72% 0.1
Canvasback -38% 2.0
Common Goldeneye -37% 3.9
Common Merganser -14% 10.5
Greater White-fronted Goose -46% 0.4
Hooded Merganser -23% 10.8
Lesser Black-backed Gull -29% 0.7
Lesser Scaup -17% 6.4
Northern Pintail -51% 2.1
Northern Shrike -60% 0.1
Red-breasted Merganser -23% 7.0
Redhead -37% 3.6
Ring-billed Gull -17% 22.4
Ring-necked Duck -16% 14.1
Ross's Goose -81% 0.1
Rough-legged Hawk -41% 0.5
Snow Goose -59% 0.9
Snowy Owl -59% 0.1
Tundra Swan -50% 1.3
White-winged Scoter -37% 0.8

Summer Tanager © Luke Seitz

Summer Tanager © Luke Seitz

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Scattered moderate flights over the weekend grew to cover the entirety of the region by Monday night. This intensity of migration continued, at the same region-wide extent, nearly through the remainder of the work week. Of particular note were widespread moderate movements on Tuesday night and similarly intense flights over Texas on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Redstart 86% 1.2
Blue Grosbeak 194% 0.6
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 16% 23.4
Broad-winged Hawk 26% 3.3
Bronzed Cowbird 58% 1.6
Brown-headed Cowbird 13% 20.2
Chuck-will's-widow 45% 1.7
Cliff Swallow 35% 4.2
Common Yellowthroat 24% 10.4
Eastern Towhee 20% 20.8
Great Crested Flycatcher 32% 12.6
Green Heron 16% 7.1
Indigo Bunting 34% 4.0
Nashville Warbler 70% 1.2
Orchard Oriole 57% 2.6
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 333% 0.4
Sandwich Tern 41% 2.9
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 29% 8.2
Semipalmated Plover 36% 2.4
Solitary Sandpiper 44% 2.5
Summer Tanager 160% 3.4
Western Kingbird 217% 0.6
Whimbrel 78% 1.2
Willet 21% 8.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Brown Creeper -78% 0.1
Hooded Merganser -56% 0.5
Golden-crowned Kinglet -68% 0.5
Ring-necked Duck -59% 0.6
Bufflehead -53% 1.1
Lesser Scaup -41% 1.7
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -56% 1.8
Gadwall -40% 2.2
American White Pelican -26% 3.2
American Kestrel -44% 3.2
Dark-eyed Junco -32% 3.3
Northern Shoveler -22% 4.9
Northern Flicker -22% 6.0
Ring-billed Gull -27% 6.6
Palm Warbler -36% 8.4
Little Blue Heron -18% 8.7
Pied-billed Grebe -22% 9.7
Tree Swallow -19% 9.9
Osprey -14% 16.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler -15% 20.6

Franklin's Gulls © Benjamin Van Doren

Franklin’s Gulls © Benjamin Van Doren

Great Plains

Quiet was the word for the region this week, with migrants stymied by some unfavorable conditions that included northerly winds and storms. When birds did fly, movements were light and moderate, but these were limited across space and in time. The most intense of the week’s movements occurred in the Dakotas on Saturday night; the most extensive were those flights in the central and southern Plains, primarily over several nights when light to locally moderate movements occurred.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Peregrine Falcon 109% 0.8
Hermit Thrush 55% 1.6
Bonaparte's Gull 40% 3.8
Wilson's Snipe 49% 4.2
Lincoln's Sparrow 32% 4.6
Cooper's Hawk 27% 6.0
White-throated Sparrow 23% 7.6
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 36% 7.8
Franklin's Gull 121% 8.2
Field Sparrow 29% 10.2
Chipping Sparrow 25% 11.2
American Kestrel 33% 11.8
Eastern Meadowlark 14% 18.7
Double-crested Cormorant 14% 19.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 29% 25.5
Blue-winged Teal 10% 32.9
Turkey Vulture 8% 35.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cackling Goose -98% 0.0
Ross's Goose -96% 0.0
Common Merganser -63% 1.0
Greater White-fronted Goose -63% 1.1
Sandhill Crane -58% 1.2
Horned Grebe -42% 2.3
Snow Goose -54% 2.5
American Tree Sparrow -43% 2.6
Northern Pintail -34% 7.0
American Wigeon -40% 9.4
Ring-necked Duck -31% 9.4
Green-winged Teal -31% 13.6
Dark-eyed Junco -20% 24.4
Canada Goose -16% 40.4

Black-throated Gray Warbler © Ian Davies

Black-throated Gray Warbler © Ian Davies

West

California and the Desert Southwest cornered much of the region’s action. Light to moderate flights kicked off the weekend, generally decreasing thereafter through most of the work week. Scattered precipitation, among some other unfavorable conditions, kept birds grounded or mostly grounded in many other parts of the West. However, Thursday night saw a renewed pulse of activity, with migrants on the move in California in moderate levels, as well as over the Desert Southwest and the Pacific Northwest.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hammond's Flycatcher 62% 0.8
Western Sandpiper 82% 1.5
Nashville Warbler 179% 1.5
Cassin's Vireo 109% 1.6
Franklin's Gull 79% 1.7
Green Heron 38% 2.0
Black-throated Gray Warbler 69% 3.2
Common Grackle 32% 3.3
Cassin's Kingbird 23% 3.6
Yellow Warbler 56% 3.8
Ash-throated Flycatcher 45% 3.9
Swainson's Hawk 40% 3.9
Bullock's Oriole 29% 4.9
Black-chinned Hummingbird 32% 5.0
Brown-headed Cowbird 34% 5.2
Allen's Hummingbird 19% 5.8
Rufous Hummingbird 17% 7.1
Osprey 46% 7.4
Cliff Swallow 48% 8.3
Barn Swallow 33% 9.6
Common Yellowthroat 24% 9.9
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 21% 9.9
Violet-green Swallow 18% 10.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tundra Swan -74% 0.1
Harris's Sparrow -55% 0.1
Ross's Goose -36% 0.3
Red-breasted Sapsucker -15% 1.2
Varied Thrush -37% 1.9
Cackling Goose -18% 2.1
Golden-crowned Kinglet -11% 2.2
Hooded Merganser -21% 2.3
Fox Sparrow -21% 2.4
Common Goldeneye -19% 3.9
Northern Pintail -17% 4.0
Ring-necked Duck -8% 8.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -21% 9.0
American Wigeon -13% 10.4
Dark-eyed Junco -13% 19.2
Northern Flicker -12% 20.6

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