Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 3-10 March 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Mar 10, 2017

Osprey. Michael Linz/Macaulay Library. eBird S35067136.

Continental Summary

Scattered light to moderate movements, primarily in California and the Desert Southwest, punctuated the early migration scene in the West and featured Swainson’s Hawk, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Bell’s Vireo, Sage Thrasher, and Hooded Oriole, while light to moderate flights in the southern states featured Blue-winged Teal, Osprey, Chuck-will’s-widow, Eastern Phoebe, Tree Swallow, Marsh Wren, and Summer Tanager.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A quiet early “spring” weekend in the region saw light to locally moderate flights in the central Mississippi River valley, Ohio River valley, and the northern and central Appalachians. But a strong passing cold front shut down these early movements. Wednesday and Thursday night saw a return of similarly distributed light to locally moderate flights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tree Swallow 291% 3.3
Wood Duck 74% 8.3
Eastern Phoebe 131% 4.3
Pied-billed Grebe 55% 5.8
American Robin 29% 41.4
Blue-winged Teal 100% 1.5
Hooded Merganser 37% 12
Turkey Vulture 29% 20.4
Osprey 156% 0.9
Green-winged Teal 42% 8.4
Ring-necked Duck 29% 13.1
American Coot 33% 6.5
Horned Grebe 34% 4.1
Killdeer 53% 15
Song Sparrow 21% 32
Northern Shoveler 33% 7.9
Pine Warbler 54% 1.8
Field Sparrow 47% 2.6
Bufflehead 23% 13.7
Double-crested Cormorant 36% 3.7
Great Blue Heron 20% 8.5
Fish Crow 41% 6.7
American Wigeon 31% 6.4
Eastern Meadowlark 28% 3.7
Red-winged Blackbird 21% 41.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-necked Grebe -58% 0.1
Rough-legged Hawk -37% 0.7
Purple Finch -46% 1
Horned Lark -24% 2.8
Pine Siskin -31% 0.8
Black-capped Chickadee -14% 25.3
Snow Goose -17% 2.8
Pine Grosbeak -54% 0.1
Snow Bunting -40% 0.3
Northern Shrike -30% 0.5
Common Redpoll -32% 0.2
Red-breasted Nuthatch -19% 4.2
American Goldfinch -15% 17.5
American Tree Sparrow -12% 8.7
Snowy Owl -36% 0.1
Iceland Gull -28% 0.2

Summer Tanager. Gabriel Gonzalez/Macaulay Library. eBird S35053186.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to moderate flights peppered the region to kick off the weekend, first to the west and then to the east of the Mississippi River valley. Monday and Thursday nights saw the greatest spatial extents of the period’s flights, with birds aloft from Texas to Florida, while the days between saw significantly limited but similarly intense flights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Parula 48% 10.8
Great Crested Flycatcher 99% 2.4
Barn Swallow 49% 3.9
White-eyed Vireo 41% 11
Blue-headed Vireo 46% 4.4
Purple Martin 29% 6.5
Chuck-will's-widow 342% 0.5
Black-and-white Warbler 49% 4.5
Gray Catbird 36% 11.5
Swallow-tailed Kite 40% 2.5
Brown Thrasher 19% 10.8
Prairie Warbler 59% 2
Ovenbird 108% 0.8
Summer Tanager 308% 0.3
Yellow-throated Vireo 121% 0.5
Cliff Swallow 162% 0.3
American Golden-Plover 104% 0.4
Cedar Waxwing 14% 10.7
Laughing Gull 19% 13.6
Caspian Tern 63% 2.6
Yellow-throated Warbler 30% 3.8
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 22% 2.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Harrier -26% 4.1
Western Meadowlark -38% 0.6
American Pipit -23% 1.3
Ring-necked Duck -23% 4.6
Northern Shoveler -19% 6.1
Ring-billed Gull -15% 12.3
Gadwall -18% 5.7
Greater White-fronted Goose -54% 0.1
Rock Wren -58% 0.1
Canvasback -33% 0.4
Wilson's Snipe -19% 3.5
Fulvous Whistling-Duck -51% 0.1
Tundra Swan -52% 0.1
American Coot -9% 13.2

Marsh Wren. Bob Harden/Macaulay Library. eBird S34976882.

Great Plains

Local light movements were the norm for the period. Most of the action, so to speak, occurred in the central and southern Plains, primarily in Oklahoma. The greatest intensity of the period’s flights occurred on Wednesday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Phoebe 60% 12.1
Western Meadowlark 64% 10.9
Green-winged Teal 84% 12.1
Fox Sparrow 115% 5.8
Tree Swallow 217% 2.3
American Wigeon 39% 12.4
Belted Kingfisher 68% 6.4
Brown-headed Cowbird 64% 6
Mountain Bluebird 855% 1.1
Common Grackle 33% 10.4
Blue-winged Teal 56% 3.7
Sandhill Crane 48% 4
Northern Shoveler 27% 12.6
Red-winged Blackbird 17% 33.4
Gadwall 24% 17.7
Cackling Goose 37% 6.8
American Tree Sparrow 30% 13
Horned Grebe 38% 3.2
White-crowned Sparrow 48% 7.9
Canada Goose 11% 46.7
Ruddy Duck 28% 5.6
Cooper's Hawk 27% 4.6
Marsh Wren 317% 1.1
Killdeer 18% 24.3
Redhead 20% 9.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Woodcock -35% 0.8
Herring Gull -25% 2.6
Sharp-shinned Hawk -20% 2.1
American Kestrel -17% 7.7
Barn Owl -67% 0.1
Greater White-fronted Goose -18% 4.1
Eared Grebe -58% 0.1
Tundra Swan -44% 0.2
Purple Finch -20% 1.8
Ferruginous Hawk -51% 0.1
Common Merganser -24% 4.7
Brown Thrasher -75% 0
Snowy Owl -41% 0.1
Hairy Woodpecker -9% 6.6
Brown Creeper -8% 3.9
Short-eared Owl -29% 0.2
Eastern Towhee -26% 0.1
Mourning Dove -2% 23

Pacific-slope Flycatcher. Emily Tornga/Macaulay Library. eBird S35048749.

West

Local light movements occurred from California through the Desert Southwest to begin the weekend.  However, scattered precipitation in many areas quickly quieted these flights. The next round of movement was similarly distributed, occurring on Tuesday night. Some of these flights were more intense, locally moderate in the Desert Southwest. This intensity expanded to additional southern reaches of the region on Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Broad-billed Hummingbird 103% 2.2
Barn Swallow 89% 1.5
Lucy's Warbler 1636% 0.5
Swainson's Hawk 325% 0.8
Violet-green Swallow 31% 3.6
Hooded Oriole 143% 0.5
Bell's Vireo 720% 0.2
Vermilion Flycatcher 24% 3
Cliff Swallow 35% 1.5
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 27% 4.7
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 1033% 0.1
Phainopepla 17% 4.6
Ash-throated Flycatcher 75% 0.5
Orange-crowned Warbler 20% 5.5
Sage Thrasher 61% 0.7
Mourning Dove 7% 23.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Herring Gull -42% 1.8
Spotted Sandpiper -42% 1
Tundra Swan -40% 1.2
Canvasback -34% 2.2
Glaucous-winged Gull -27% 3.9
American White Pelican -35% 2
Snow Goose -35% 1.4
Thayer's Gull -41% 0.7
Hooded Merganser -29% 3.8
Blue-winged Teal -37% 0.8
Heermann's Gull -39% 0.5
Northern Harrier -20% 6.4
Red Crossbill -61% 0.3
Brown Pelican -28% 1.5
Brown-capped Rosy-Finch -72% 0.1
Trumpeter Swan -32% 0.8
Bald Eagle -19% 7.7
Northern Shoveler -18% 9.6
Northern Pintail -20% 5.3
California Gull -20% 6.3
Cackling Goose -24% 3.6

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY