Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 4-11 November 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 11, 2016

Pine Grosbeak. John Corden/Macaulay Library. eBird S32438550.

Pine Grosbeak. John Corden/Macaulay Library. eBird S32438550.

Continental Summary

Movements in the West were local and light, primarily along the Pacific Coast, featuring Tundra Swan, Common Goldeneye, Bufflehead, Bonaparte’s Gull, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Bohemian Waxwing, and Purple Finch, while in the East pulses of sub-regional movements were moderate to locally heavy and featured Greater Scaup, Bufflehead, Hooded Merganser, Red-throated Loon, Horned Grebe, American Robin, American Tree Sparrow, Pine Siskin, and Purple Finch.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

The period began with local light to moderate flights along the coast, and to some extent over New York and New England, while the remainder of the region remained generally quiet. With the arrival and passage of a cold front on Monday night, light to moderate flights began anew in the Upper Midwest. These intensified and grew more extensive by Tuesday night, but their intensity and extent stopped at the Appalachians. The period ended with a similar quiet to its start, with only locally light to moderate flights but this time in the Upper Midwest.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 55% 11.7
American Tree Sparrow 48% 9
Common Goldeneye 47% 3
Hooded Merganser 28% 7.8
Tundra Swan 83% 0.8
Pine Grosbeak 96% 0.4
Pine Siskin 31% 1.7
Redhead 23% 2.6
Lesser Scaup 23% 3.6
Ring-necked Duck 17% 5.9
Red-throated Loon 25% 2.6
Boreal Chickadee 541% 0.1
Sanderling 25% 1.9
Canvasback 29% 1.3
White-winged Crossbill 51% 0.3
Common Merganser 13% 4.7
Gray Jay 47% 0.2
American Black Duck 8% 10
Cave Swallow 91% 0.1
Mallard 5% 33.3
Harlequin Duck 38% 0.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -53% 4.8
Yellow-rumped Warbler -49% 7.2
Chipping Sparrow -61% 2.1
Eastern Phoebe -73% 0.9
Pectoral Sandpiper -80% 0.2
Field Sparrow -41% 2.9
Cedar Waxwing -35% 8
Palm Warbler -62% 0.9
Purple Finch -34% 5.4
Blue-headed Vireo -92% 0
Common Grackle -33% 7.1
Hermit Thrush -36% 3.2
Vesper Sparrow -68% 0.2
Osprey -66% 0.4
White-crowned Sparrow -39% 2.7
Lesser Yellowlegs -63% 0.3
Red-winged Blackbird -23% 14.6
Golden-crowned Kinglet -24% 11.3
Franklin's Gull -72% 0.2
Brown-headed Cowbird -40% 1.9
Tree Swallow -51% 0.8
American Robin -17% 31.4
American Pipit -38% 1.9
Blackpoll Warbler -91% 0
Yellow-breasted Chat -76% 0.1

American Robin. Steve Raduns/Macaulay Library. eBird S32351870.

American Robin. Steve Raduns/Macaulay Library. eBird S32351870.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Widespread moderate and locally heavy flights occurred on Friday night, thereafter diminishing significantly in intensity and extent. Flights remained local for the days that followed, but by Tuesday night began to increase in intensity to moderate to locally heavy over Texas. Wednesday night saw another pulse of moderate to locally heavy flights across most of the region, followed on Thursday night by more scattered light to moderate flights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hooded Merganser 413% 2.2
Bufflehead 830% 1.4
Horned Grebe 617% 1.4
Ring-necked Duck 88% 5.4
Lesser Scaup 98% 2.6
Black Scoter 241% 1.2
Dark-eyed Junco 46% 7.7
American Robin 37% 21.5
Red-breasted Merganser 582% 0.7
Northern Gannet 118% 1.4
Ruddy Duck 29% 5.4
American Goldfinch 34% 10.5
Canvasback 164% 0.8
Surf Scoter 316% 0.7
Ring-billed Gull 26% 7
Common Loon 68% 1.2
Rusty Blackbird 84% 0.8
Yellow-rumped Warbler 23% 33.6
Redhead 28% 2.9
Green-winged Teal 14% 6.5
Gadwall 17% 6.8
Snow Goose 55% 1
Purple Finch 39% 1.5
Great Black-backed Gull 63% 1.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow -60% 2.2
Black Phoebe -77% 0.5
Stilt Sandpiper -74% 0.6
Indigo Bunting -69% 1
White-faced Ibis -58% 1.8
Black-necked Stilt -51% 2.6
Franklin's Gull -68% 0.9
Wilson's Snipe -34% 4.3
Lesser Yellowlegs -38% 3.2
Eastern Wood-Pewee -92% 0.1
Neotropic Cormorant -41% 3.1
Long-billed Dowitcher -42% 2.8

Hooded Merganser. Rick Sammons/Macaulay Library. eBird S32487822.

Hooded Merganser. Rick Sammons/Macaulay Library. eBird S32487822.

Great Plains

Locally moderate to heavy flights kicked off the period in the southern Plains, diminishing rapidly by Saturday night; however, the remainder of the region was quiet. With the passage of low pressure on Monday came a pulse of light and moderate flights in the northern and central Plains, followed on Tuesday night by a more intense flight in the central and southern Plains. Wednesday saw a movement very similar in intensity and extent to the weekend’s kickoff flight in the southern Plains, and the period ended with local light and isolated moderate flights across the region.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lesser Scaup 83% 14
Hooded Merganser 107% 8
Ring-necked Duck 62% 17.5
Bufflehead 78% 8.9
Bonaparte's Gull 60% 9.3
Red-breasted Merganser 151% 3.2
Greater Scaup 282% 1.7
Ruddy Duck 26% 18.1
Snow Goose 39% 8.5
White-throated Sparrow 28% 16.8
Horned Grebe 39% 8.2
American Goldfinch 20% 36.8
Carolina Chickadee 33% 15.1
Red-shouldered Hawk 46% 9.4
Gadwall 17% 27.4
Canvasback 27% 7.4
Tufted Titmouse 20% 15.2
Dark-eyed Junco 13% 52.4
Northern Shoveler 17% 21.8
American Crow 12% 40.9
Brown Creeper 20% 8.1
Pied-billed Grebe 12% 29.2
Winter Wren 37% 2.4
Surf Scoter 523% 0.5
Red-bellied Woodpecker 11% 33.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Avocet -76% 1.6
Orange-crowned Warbler -91% 0.2
Merlin -61% 0.8
Little Gull -92% 0
Blue-winged Teal -60% 1.5
Black-bellied Plover -85% 0.1
Chipping Sparrow -42% 2.9
American Golden-Plover -99% 0
Lesser Yellowlegs -48% 1.2
Long-billed Dowitcher -40% 1.6
Osprey -60% 0.9
Turkey Vulture -51% 1.4
Western Meadowlark -25% 4.9
Franklin's Gull -23% 14.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -23% 8
Pectoral Sandpiper -87% 0.1
White-faced Ibis -57% 1.1
Vesper Sparrow -38% 1.2
Red-tailed Hawk -12% 31.8
Stilt Sandpiper -55% 0.2
Brown Thrasher -96% 0

Bohemian Waxwing. Jamin Taylor/Macaulay Library. eBird S32451568.

Bohemian Waxwing. Jamin Taylor/Macaulay Library. eBird S32451568.

West

The period was generally quiet from a migration perspective. California, portions of the Pacific Northwest, and portions of the Desert Southwest were the only areas that saw action, and even this was restricted mostly to a few nights of the period. The most regular and intense flights occurred in California, with the Central Valley experiencing locally moderate flights on most nights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye 198% 2.6
Bufflehead 49% 17.1
Hooded Merganser 42% 6
Lesser Scaup 48% 6.3
Tundra Swan 99% 1.8
Barrow's Goldeneye 87% 1.5
Bohemian Waxwing 159% 0.7
Golden-crowned Kinglet 26% 8
Red-breasted Merganser 33% 3.1
Grasshopper Sparrow 308% 0.4
Bonaparte's Gull 28% 4.4
Northern Pintail 20% 7.7
Black-vented Shearwater 45% 1.5
Ring-necked Duck 17% 10
Purple Finch 27% 2.2
Canvasback 20% 2.9
Sanderling 28% 1.9
Virginia Rail 18% 2.7
Brant 30% 1
Cackling Goose 12% 7
Trumpeter Swan 35% 0.8
American Wigeon 8% 16.7
Neotropic Cormorant 24% 1.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Plumbeous Vireo -72% 0.1
California Gnatcatcher -59% 0.1
Tropical Kingbird -42% 0.4
Violet-green Swallow -82% 0.1
Cassin's Vireo -62% 0.1
Summer Tanager -91% 0
White-winged Dove -23% 1.1
Barn Swallow -61% 0.2
Greater Scaup -24% 1.4
Black-legged Kittiwake -50% 0.2
Allen's Hummingbird -17% 2.5
Western Grebe -12% 12
Least Bittern -66% 0.1
Common Grackle -43% 0.2
Red-necked Phalarope -80% 0
Varied Thrush -32% 0.4
American Tree Sparrow -23% 1.2
Tree Swallow -31% 0.9
Band-tailed Pigeon -23% 1.6
Merlin -18% 2.4

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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