Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 9-16 September 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 16, 2016

American Pipit. Elizabeth Curley/Macaulay Library. eBird S31607399

American Pipit. Elizabeth Curley/Macaulay Library. eBird S31607399

Continental Summary

Moderate and even locally heavy flights featuring Sandhill Crane, Dunlin, Merlin, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, American Pipit, White-crowned Sparrow, and Golden-crowned Sparrow punctuated this period in the West, while moderate to heavy flights of Broad-winged Hawk, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Magnolia Warbler, Hooded Warbler, Palm Warbler, Lincoln’s Sparrow, and Purple Finch occurred in the East following the passage of a significant cold front.

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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered moderate and locally heavy flights that began the weekend quickly grew to more widespread moderate to heavy flights in the wake of a cold front. With this frontal passage, high pressure followed by Monday and just as quickly quieted migration activity to locally light to moderate flights. However, another change of air mass brought favorable migration conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday nights to the region, and spawned moderate to heavy flights first in the Upper Midwest and then farther east across the remainder of the region respectively. By Thursday night locally moderate and heavy flights are primarily distributed east of the Appalachians.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Palm Warbler 129% 7.4
Swainson's Thrush 73% 10.9
White-throated Sparrow 180% 4.1
Lincoln's Sparrow 361% 2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 333% 1.7
Gray-cheeked Thrush 137% 2
Northern Parula 44% 8.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler 55% 5
Blackpoll Warbler 46% 6.6
Northern Flicker 25% 31.9
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 36% 9.1
Eastern Phoebe 26% 21
Broad-winged Hawk 71% 4.5
American Pipit 175% 1
Blue-headed Vireo 74% 2.7
Nashville Warbler 45% 7.1
Sharp-shinned Hawk 42% 5
House Wren 24% 13.7
Philadelphia Vireo 47% 3.4
Brown Thrasher 30% 6
Blue Jay 11% 62.6
Common Yellowthroat 17% 23
Winter Wren 187% 0.6
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 56% 2.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow -54% 5.2
Common Nighthawk -57% 1.9
Black Tern -71% 0.5
Baird's Sandpiper -59% 0.6
Baltimore Oriole -46% 2.2
Purple Martin -72% 0.3
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -34% 4.6
Bank Swallow -63% 0.4
Sanderling -37% 3.6
Tree Swallow -30% 7.4
Semipalmated Plover -31% 5.7
Spotted Sandpiper -35% 3.7
Least Tern -82% 0.1
Eastern Kingbird -48% 1.6
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -63% 0.3
Semipalmated Sandpiper -30% 5
Least Sandpiper -24% 7.9
Great Crested Flycatcher -30% 3.7
Cliff Swallow -62% 0.3
Short-billed Dowitcher -44% 1.3
Ruddy Turnstone -36% 1.2
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -19% 21
Common Tern -34% 2.6
Canada Warbler -39% 1.1
Great Black-backed Gull -23% 6.1

Philadelphia Vireo. PW/Macaulay Library. eBird S31610394

Philadelphia Vireo. PW/Macaulay Library. eBird S31610394

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A frontal passage brought moderate to heavy flights across much of the region for Saturday and Sunday nights. The days that followed did not achieve the intensity and extent of these weekend movements; however, light to moderate flights were evident in many areas across the region. Some of these were locally heavy, particularly Monday night in the Carolinas and Tuesday night in the Florida Panhandle.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cape May Warbler 315% 3.7
Tennessee Warbler 168% 4.2
Swainson's Thrush 179% 3.1
Magnolia Warbler 69% 6
Palm Warbler 497% 1.2
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 413% 1.3
Black-throated Blue Warbler 72% 3.1
Merlin 154% 1.3
Gray-cheeked Thrush 1457% 0.4
Pied-billed Grebe 38% 5.9
Bay-breasted Warbler 275% 0.6
Baltimore Oriole 38% 7.2
Brown Thrasher 21% 15
Philadelphia Vireo 244% 0.5
Nashville Warbler 84% 1.2
American Redstart 29% 14.2
Eastern Phoebe 22% 12
Warbling Vireo 69% 1
Bobolink 66% 1.7
Common Yellowthroat 22% 9.2
Alder Flycatcher 98% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bank Swallow -56% 1
Barn Swallow -33% 11
Least Tern -52% 1
Semipalmated Plover -28% 4.3
Solitary Sandpiper -38% 1.7
Black-necked Stilt -31% 2.6
Semipalmated Sandpiper -29% 2.8
Mississippi Kite -45% 1.3
Magnificent Frigatebird -40% 1
Black Tern -38% 1.7
Red-necked Phalarope -97% 0
Kentucky Warbler -46% 1.1
Spotted Sandpiper -22% 5.2
Black-bellied Plover -28% 3.6
Great Crested Flycatcher -18% 7.4
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -28% 2
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -43% 0.6
King Rail -72% 0.1
Say's Phoebe -86% 0.1
Purple Martin -34% 1.9
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -21% 3.8
Cerulean Warbler -50% 0.4
Upland Sandpiper -62% 0.3

Franklin's Gull. Douglas Faulder/Macaulay Library. eBird S31601501

Franklin’s Gull. Douglas Faulder/Macaulay Library. eBird S31601501

Great Plains

Moderate to heavy flights occurred in staggered waves for the weekend, first in the northern and central Plains, then in the eastern and southern Plains, and then again in the northern Plains, as favorable migration conditions built in and through the region. This pattern continued for the beginning of the work week, but without the extent of the weekend flights. As a strong disturbance, with intense rain and thunderstorms, pass through the region to end the period, locally moderate to heavy flights followed in the clearer and cooler air building in from the west.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-rumped Warbler 92% 8.5
Lincoln's Sparrow 180% 5.6
Franklin's Gull 75% 18.2
Pied-billed Grebe 69% 17.4
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 91% 5.4
White-throated Sparrow 158% 2
Double-crested Cormorant 58% 17
Blue-headed Vireo 83% 5.3
American White Pelican 56% 16
Purple Finch 598% 1.3
Nashville Warbler 38% 10.5
White-winged Dove 87% 2.3
Hooded Warbler 353% 0.6
Red-bellied Woodpecker 22% 26.7
Ruddy Duck 48% 3.5
Osprey 29% 9.6
Dark-eyed Junco 54% 1.8
Blue Jay 18% 52.1
Ring-billed Gull 20% 21.4
Orange-crowned Warbler 27% 7.1
Eared Grebe 61% 1.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Baltimore Oriole -74% 3
Say's Phoebe -83% 0.4
Red Crossbill -76% 0.6
Mississippi Kite -48% 5.4
Eastern Kingbird -61% 3.9
Western Wood-Pewee -90% 0.1
Bell's Vireo -64% 1.2
American Redstart -47% 4.7
Red-headed Woodpecker -42% 9.7
Cliff Swallow -68% 1.1
Blue Grosbeak -78% 0.4
Warbling Vireo -36% 8.8
Red-eyed Vireo -32% 9.2
Great Crested Flycatcher -32% 6.3
Western Tanager -62% 0.6
Yellow Warbler -31% 8
Black Tern -53% 3
Little Blue Heron -59% 0.8
Orchard Oriole -90% 0.1
Olive-sided Flycatcher -35% 3.3
Western Kingbird -53% 1.1
Black-crowned Night-Heron -40% 2.6
Green Heron -29% 3.3
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -27% 7

Dunlin. Justyn Stahl/Macaulay Library. eBird S31585232

Dunlin. Justyn Stahl/Macaulay Library. eBird S31585232

West

Moderate to locally heavy flights kicked off the weekend on Friday night and ended the period on Thursday night, with larger flights evident particularly in the Rockies. In the interim light to moderate flights were widespread across the region, although tamped by scattered precipitation. Note that some areas that are often active with migrating birds on radar, such as the Central Valley, continued to show modest movements during this period.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Sparrow 220% 3.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 106% 5.9
White-crowned Sparrow 49% 18.2
Fox Sparrow 102% 3.6
American Wigeon 49% 5.3
American Pipit 54% 3.8
Lincoln's Sparrow 38% 7
Sandhill Crane 124% 2.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler 25% 12.6
Merlin 119% 1.6
Say's Phoebe 24% 7.3
Eared Grebe 35% 3.7
Townsend's Solitaire 41% 2.5
Northern Flicker 16% 26
Ring-necked Duck 51% 1.8
Red-shouldered Hawk 27% 6.8
Redhead 40% 1.7
Townsend's Warbler 20% 5.7
Dunlin 288% 0.3
Red-necked Grebe 36% 1.5
Lapland Longspur 1669% 0.2
Red-breasted Sapsucker 32% 1.7
Orange-crowned Warbler 12% 15.9
Red-naped Sapsucker 39% 1.2
Vaux's Swift 17% 4.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -53% 1.7
Western Kingbird -51% 2.3
Rufous Hummingbird -49% 1.8
Solitary Sandpiper -49% 1.1
Western Sandpiper -35% 5.4
Wilson's Phalarope -50% 0.9
Purple Martin -61% 0.4
Lesser Yellowlegs -32% 2.5
Broad-tailed Hummingbird -43% 1.9
Semipalmated Plover -35% 2.5
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck -97% 0
Cliff Swallow -46% 1.8
Blue Grosbeak -42% 1.5
MacGillivray's Warbler -35% 2.9
Semipalmated Sandpiper -72% 0.2
Barn Swallow -23% 19.6
Caspian Tern -26% 4.7
Violet-green Swallow -23% 4.9
Bank Swallow -36% 1.1
Eastern Kingbird -78% 0.1
Lazuli Bunting -38% 1.7
Black-headed Grosbeak -36% 2.4

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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