Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 1-8 April 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 01, 2016

American Bittern. Ryan Treves/Macaulay Library. 28 Mar 2016. eBird S28609510

American Bittern. Ryan Treves/Macaulay Library. 28 Mar 2016. eBird S28609510

Continental Summary

Favorable conditions this weekend and later in the workweek will bring light to moderate movements including Green Heron, Caspian Tern, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Nashville Warbler, and Brewer’s Blackbird through the West, while cooler weather following two strong frontal passages will contrast starkly with the period’s favorable conditions and their moderate to heavy flights of Snowy Egret, American Bittern, Broad-winged Hawk, Virginia Rail, Upland Sandpiper, Whimbrel, Cliff Swallow, Ovenbird, Black-throated Green Warbler, Palm Warbler, Blue Grosbeak, and Indigo Bunting in the East.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A significant frontal boundary, followed by the arrival of decidedly non-spring like conditions, will dominate much of the region through the weekend. Although locally light to moderate flights may occur in some areas, most migrants will remain where they are. A brief respite from these conditions occurs in the Ohio Valley on Sunday night, where moderate flights will occur, but cool conditions continue through Tuesday. But a change follows, with warmer weather and southerly flow spawning moderate to heavy flights west of the Appalachians on Tuesday night and expanding eastward for Wednesday night. Note the forecast for precipitation on Wednesday night, and where it overlaps with favorable migration conditions – birders should be alert for potential concentrations that result from these areas of overlap. The period ends with another strong frontal passage shutting down migration nearly region wide.

Purple Finch. Jean Guy Chouinard/Macaulay Library. 28 Mar 2016. eBird S28609834

Purple Finch. Jean Guy Chouinard/Macaulay Library. 28 Mar 2016. eBird S28609834

Species on the Move

Arrivals What is this?

Species Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure
Brown Thrasher 4/1 4/14 4/30 -
Chipping Sparrow 4/1 4/14 5/2 -
Savannah Sparrow 4/1 4/13 5/4 -
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 4/2 4/12 4/25 5/8
Palm Warbler 4/2 4/24 5/4 5/16
Virginia Rail 4/3 4/15 5/7 -
Eastern Towhee 4/4 4/16 5/1 -
American Bittern 4/4 4/16 5/5 -
Purple Finch 4/5 4/14 4/24 5/4
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 4/5 4/17 5/3 5/16
Barn Swallow 4/5 4/19 5/18 -
Broad-winged Hawk 4/7 4/15 4/26 5/5

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A frontal boundary shuts down movements in its wake to the west of the Mississippi to begin the weekend, while spawning concentration and fallout potential with its passage in areas farther east. Birders in the eastern Gulf states and Florida should watch for concentrations and fallouts in appropriate coastal habitats on Saturday and Sunday as the front continues to push through the region. Marginal conditions begin the work week, with scattered moderate flights likely where favorable conditions persist. Not until Tuesday and Wednesday does more widespread migration occur, with moderate to heavy flights in many areas. However, another frontal passage, albeit less intense and less extensive than its predecessor, shuts down movements across much of the region to end the period, with the only reprieve being moderate to locally heavy flights in Texas and Louisiana.

Indigo Bunting. Anonymous eBirder/Macaulay Library. 26 Mar 2016. eBird S28566155

Indigo Bunting. Anonymous eBirder/Macaulay Library. 26 Mar 2016. eBird S28566155

Arrivals What is this?

Species Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure
Solitary Sandpiper 4/1 4/15 4/27 5/11
Cerulean Warbler 4/2 4/10 4/21 5/1
Warbling Vireo 4/2 4/16 5/2 5/16
Common Yellowthroat 4/2 4/18 5/2 5/16
Summer Tanager 4/2 4/12 4/26 -
Sedge Wren 4/3 4/10 4/18 5/1
Whimbrel 4/3 4/12 4/23 5/3
Brown-crested Flycatcher 4/3 4/12 4/24 -
Indigo Bunting 4/3 4/14 4/29 -
Black Tern 4/3 4/14 5/15 -
Sora 4/4 4/12 4/21 5/5
Nashville Warbler 4/4 4/15 4/26 5/9
Bell's Vireo 4/4 4/15 4/30 -
Tennessee Warbler 4/5 4/15 4/28 5/11
Bullock's Oriole 4/5 4/16 5/17 -
Scarlet Tanager 4/6 4/15 4/26 5/6
Black-bellied Plover 4/6 4/14 4/24 5/7
Gray Kingbird 4/6 4/15 4/27 5/7
Stilt Sandpiper 4/6 4/21 5/4 5/21
Semipalmated Plover 4/6 4/15 4/26 5/29
Wood Thrush 4/6 4/15 4/27 -
Blue Grosbeak 4/6 4/15 4/28 -
Yellow-headed Blackbird 4/7 4/15 4/27 5/9
Black-throated Green Warbler 4/7 4/17 4/29 5/12
Western Kingbird 4/7 4/17 5/12 -
Ovenbird 4/8 4/17 4/29 5/10
Common Nighthawk 4/8 4/17 5/18 -

 

Great Plains

Cool, northerly flow generally keeps migrants grounded to begin the period, with perhaps a Saturday night and Monday night pulse of favorable conditions bringing locally moderate flights. Monday night is the first period of widespread southerly flow, and moderate to heavy migration will be evident across the region. But the excitement is short-lived, as a strong frontal boundary pushes across the region and shuts down most movements through the weekend.

Upland Sandpiper. Stephen Pollard/Macaulay Library. 27 Mar 2016. eBird S28593818

Upland Sandpiper. Stephen Pollard/Macaulay Library. 27 Mar 2016. eBird S28593818

Species on the Move

Arrivals What is this?

Species Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure
Snowy Egret 4/1 4/12 4/28 -
Marsh Wren 4/1 5/1 6/16 -
Lesser Yellowlegs 4/2 4/14 4/26 5/10
Cattle Egret 4/2 4/14 4/26 -
Barn Swallow 4/2 4/20 5/23 -
Western Grebe 4/2 4/15 6/12 -
American Bittern 4/2 4/13 - -
Upland Sandpiper 4/3 4/19 - -
Osprey 4/4 4/13 4/23 5/4
Black-crowned Night-Heron 4/4 4/20 6/15 -
Broad-winged Hawk 4/5 4/16 5/1 5/15
Lincoln's Sparrow 4/5 4/25 5/4 5/16
Hudsonian Godwit 4/5 4/13 4/23 5/29
Brown Thrasher 4/5 4/25 5/7 -
Yellow-headed Blackbird 4/5 4/13 - -
Prothonotary Warbler 4/6 4/21 5/7 5/21
American Avocet 4/6 4/15 4/27 -
Lark Sparrow 4/6 4/21 5/5 -
Marbled Godwit 4/6 4/15 - -
Grasshopper Sparrow 4/6 5/26 - -
Black-necked Stilt 4/7 4/15 4/26 -
Sora 4/7 4/16 5/16 -
Cassin's Sparrow 4/7 4/30 6/14 -
Cliff Swallow 4/7 4/19 6/17 -
Peregrine Falcon 4/8 4/22 5/4 5/18
Semipalmated Sandpiper 4/8 4/17 5/12 5/29
White-faced Ibis 4/8 4/15 4/27 -

West

Favorable conditions build across the region from Friday night through Monday, and light to moderate movements will be apparent in many reaches of the West. A disturbance with impacts beginning as precipitation on Sunday in the Pacific Northwest and continuing as cooler, more northerly flow will dampen movements by Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally light and moderate flights will persist through much of the remainder of the week, scattered primarily in lower altitude zones across the West. But by Thursday night more favorable conditions, including appropriate southerly flow and warmer temperatures, will spawn a new pulse of light to moderate movements primarily from California east to the central and southern Rockies.

Ash-throated Flycatcher. Jeff Bray/Macaulay Library. 26 Mar 2016. eBird S28557403

Ash-throated Flycatcher. Jeff Bray/Macaulay Library. 26 Mar 2016. eBird S28557403

Species on the Move

Arrivals What is this?

Species Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure
Short-billed Dowitcher 4/1 4/16 4/25 5/7
Caspian Tern 4/1 4/14 4/28 -
Purple Martin 4/1 4/29 - -
Bonaparte's Gull 4/2 4/13 4/24 5/5
Nashville Warbler 4/2 4/13 4/27 5/9
Dusky-capped Flycatcher 4/3 4/15 5/1 -
Ash-throated Flycatcher 4/3 4/15 5/3 -
Green Heron 4/3 4/18 5/13 -
Lesser Yellowlegs 4/4 4/14 4/25 5/9
Brewer's Blackbird 4/4 4/15 5/26 -
White-faced Ibis 4/6 4/15 4/30 5/28
Hammond's Flycatcher 4/6 4/23 5/12 -
Calliope Hummingbird 4/6 4/20 6/16 -
Gray Flycatcher 4/8 4/20 5/5 -

 

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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