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Regional Migration Forecast: 10-17 April 2015

Yellow-throated Warbler © Ian Davies

Yellow-throated Warbler © Ian Davies

Continental Summary

Pulses of light to moderate movements will follow the favorable conditions across the West, particularly early in the week, and will feature Lesser Yellowlegs, Dunlin, Bonaparte’s Gull, Caspian Tern, Vaux’s Swift, Black-throated Gray Warbler, Wilson’s Warbler, and Yellow-headed Blackbird, while the East sees moderate to heavy flights that track those favorable conditions early to mid week and that feature a large number of arrivals including Green Heron, Willet, Wilson’s Snipe, Red-eyed Vireo, Cliff Swallow, Yellow-throated Warbler, Kentucky Warbler, and Swamp Sparrow among many others.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

The passage of a cold front cleans the slate on Friday and Saturday, setting the stage for a new round of favorable conditions to begin the work week. Moderate to locally heavy movements will be widespread on Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Birders should watch the passage of this system carefully, as there is potential for concentrations and fallouts where it meets migrants, especially along the Atlantic Coast on Tuesday. A similar pattern follows for the end of the week, as the next low pressure center spins its way into and through the region.

Virginia Rail © Ian Davies

Virginia Rail © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
White-eyed Vireo 4/11 4/21 5/5 -
Yellow-rumped Warbler 4/11 4/23 5/4 5/17
Willet 4/12 4/22 5/22 -
Sora 4/13 4/25 5/8 5/21
Cliff Swallow 4/13 4/29 5/19 -
Prairie Warbler 4/15 4/25 5/8 -
Green Heron 4/15 4/26 5/12 -
Worm-eating Warbler 4/17 4/25 5/7 -
Bank Swallow 4/17 5/2 5/18 5/30
Blue-headed Vireo 4/17 4/26 5/6 5/17
Spotted Sandpiper 4/18 5/1 5/15 5/28
Chimney Swift 4/18 4/29 5/18 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Sharp-shinned Hawk 3/25 4/11 4/23 5/10
Little Blue Heron 3/31 4/11 - -
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 4/3 4/13 4/26 5/9
Swamp Sparrow 4/1 4/14 4/30 5/15
Savannah Sparrow 4/2 4/14 5/5 -
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 4/1 4/15 5/4 -
Brown Thrasher 4/2 4/15 5/1 -
Chipping Sparrow 4/2 4/15 5/3 -
Purple Finch 4/6 4/15 4/25 5/5
Virginia Rail 4/4 4/16 5/8 -
Broad-winged Hawk 4/8 4/16 4/27 5/6
American Bittern 4/5 4/17 5/6 -
Eastern Towhee 4/5 4/17 5/2 -
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 4/6 4/18 5/4 5/17

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Pied-billed Grebe 3/3 3/25 4/11 4/28
Brown Creeper 3/25 4/2 4/11 4/24
Rusty Blackbird - 3/3 4/12 5/1
Common Loon 3/18 3/27 4/12 4/27
American Kestrel 3/16 3/29 4/12 4/30
Bonaparte's Gull 3/19 3/31 4/12 4/25
Eastern Phoebe 3/3 3/30 4/13 -
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 3/27 4/4 4/14 4/24
Winter Wren 3/24 4/2 4/15 4/27
Song Sparrow - 3/3 4/16 -
Wilson's Snipe 3/9 3/26 4/16 5/1
Pectoral Sandpiper 3/17 3/30 4/18 5/25

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Long-tailed Duck - - - 4/11
American Black Duck - - 3/2 4/12
Common Merganser - - 3/13 4/12
American Wigeon - - 3/20 4/12
Gadwall - - 3/22 4/13
Ring-billed Gull - - 3/19 4/14
Lesser Scaup - - 3/24 4/14
Ring-necked Duck - - 3/24 4/15
Surf Scoter - - - 4/15
Common Redpoll - - 3/2 4/17
American Woodcock - 3/3 3/18 4/17
Horned Grebe - 3/6 3/28 4/17

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The list of arrivals is diverse and large in the Southeast! And the forecast is similarly diverse, with several extensive disturbances bringing a mix of precipitation, favorable winds, and then clear skies and northerly winds. Birders should watch the progression of these disturbances carefully, as several may be timed properly to create fallouts along the entirety of the Gulf Coast. Monday and Tuesday look especially interesting because of the combined favorable wind forecast for Yucatan and northern Central America and the timing of the rain forecast along and over the Gulf of Mexico. By the end of the week, the disturbances break briefly, as the next round of favorable conditions builds into Texas. Moderate to heavy flights are likely this week where and when rain is not falling.

Migrants at the Drip (High Island, TX) © Luke Seitz

Migrants at the Drip (High Island, TX) © Luke Seitz

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 4/11 4/18 4/28 5/9
Cape May Warbler 4/11 4/18 4/29 5/10
Spotted Sandpiper 4/11 4/23 5/6 5/21
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 4/11 4/29 5/31 -
Golden-winged Warbler 4/12 4/19 4/30 5/11
Black-throated Blue Warbler 4/12 4/20 5/1 5/12
Gray-cheeked Thrush 4/12 4/20 5/1 5/13
Acadian Flycatcher 4/12 4/26 5/31 -
Veery 4/13 4/20 5/2 5/13
Blackpoll Warbler 4/13 4/21 5/3 5/15
Blackburnian Warbler 4/13 4/25 5/6 5/19
Wilson's Phalarope 4/14 4/24 5/6 5/18
Yellow Warbler 4/14 4/24 5/6 5/19
Dickcissel 4/14 4/23 5/7 5/18
Mississippi Kite 4/14 4/24 5/8 -
Eastern Wood-Pewee 4/14 4/27 5/11 5/23
Bobolink 4/16 4/24 5/5 5/16
Philadelphia Vireo 4/17 4/26 5/6 5/18
Chestnut-sided Warbler 4/17 4/26 5/7 5/18
Bay-breasted Warbler 4/18 4/26 5/6 5/16

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Laughing Gull 3/3 4/11 4/19 5/3
American Avocet 3/18 4/11 4/21 5/3
Chuck-will's-widow 3/20 4/11 4/26 -
Red-eyed Vireo 3/30 4/11 5/5 -
Orchard Oriole 3/31 4/11 4/29 5/12
Kentucky Warbler 4/1 4/11 4/26 -
Cerulean Warbler 4/3 4/11 4/22 5/2
Sedge Wren 4/4 4/11 4/19 5/2
Marsh Wren - 4/11 4/19 5/3
Willet 3/10 4/12 4/20 5/2
Common Tern 3/18 4/12 4/21 -
Lark Sparrow 3/15 4/13 5/3 5/24
Great Crested Flycatcher 3/28 4/13 5/7 -
Magnificent Frigatebird 4/1 4/13 4/26 -
Summer Tanager 4/3 4/13 4/27 -
Whimbrel 4/4 4/13 4/24 5/4
Brown-crested Flycatcher 4/4 4/13 4/25 -
Sora 4/5 4/13 4/22 5/6
Wilson's Plover 3/3 4/14 4/22 -
Ash-throated Flycatcher 3/15 4/14 5/24 -
Fulvous Whistling-Duck 3/29 4/14 4/24 5/5
White-faced Ibis 3/21 4/15 4/24 5/6
Least Bittern 3/21 4/15 4/25 -
Bronzed Cowbird 3/21 4/15 4/27 -
Semipalmated Sandpiper 3/29 4/15 5/14 5/30
Indigo Bunting 4/4 4/15 4/30 -
Black Tern 4/4 4/15 5/16 -
Black-bellied Plover 4/7 4/15 4/25 5/8
Lesser Yellowlegs 3/12 4/16 4/25 5/11
Solitary Sandpiper 4/2 4/16 4/28 5/12
Nashville Warbler 4/5 4/16 4/27 5/10
Bell's Vireo 4/5 4/16 5/1 -
Tennessee Warbler 4/6 4/16 4/29 5/12
Scarlet Tanager 4/7 4/16 4/27 5/7
Semipalmated Plover 4/7 4/16 4/27 5/30
Gray Kingbird 4/7 4/16 4/28 5/8
Wood Thrush 4/7 4/16 4/28 -
Blue Grosbeak 4/7 4/16 4/29 -
Yellow-headed Blackbird 4/8 4/16 4/28 5/10
Grasshopper Sparrow 3/31 4/17 5/4 -
Bank Swallow 4/1 4/17 5/3 5/18
Warbling Vireo 4/3 4/17 5/3 5/17
Bullock's Oriole 4/6 4/17 5/18 -
Black-and-white Warbler 3/11 4/18 4/27 5/10
Black-throated Green Warbler 4/8 4/18 4/30 5/13
Western Kingbird 4/8 4/18 5/13 -
Ovenbird 4/9 4/18 4/30 5/11
Common Nighthawk 4/9 4/18 5/19 -
Gray Catbird 4/10 4/18 4/28 5/11
Baltimore Oriole 4/10 4/18 4/29 5/10
Northern Waterthrush 4/10 4/18 4/29 5/12
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 4/11 4/18 4/28 5/9
Cape May Warbler 4/11 4/18 4/29 5/10

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Yellow-throated Warbler - 3/16 4/11 -
White-throated Sparrow - - 4/11 4/30
House Wren 3/17 3/31 4/13 5/2
Upland Sandpiper 3/20 3/31 4/14 4/29
Broad-winged Hawk 3/21 4/1 4/14 4/24
Western Sandpiper - - 4/14 5/16
Marbled Godwit - 4/7 4/15 4/30
White-eyed Vireo 3/3 3/26 4/16 -
Lincoln's Sparrow - - 4/16 5/7
Prothonotary Warbler 3/25 4/3 4/17 -
Prairie Warbler 3/23 4/4 4/17 4/29
Brown Pelican - - 4/17 4/30
Northern Parula - 3/3 4/18 5/12
Swainson's Hawk 3/17 3/28 4/18 5/3
Piping Plover - 4/2 4/18 5/2
Merlin - 4/8 4/18 5/1

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Wilson's Snipe - - 3/2 4/11
Cinnamon Teal - - - 4/12
Pied-billed Grebe - - 3/2 4/13
Double-crested Cormorant - - 3/9 4/14
Chipping Sparrow - - 4/1 4/15
Belted Kingfisher - - 3/8 4/17

Great Plains

Three reasonably distinct periods of favorable conditions spread across the region of the forecast period, first on Saturday and Sunday, again on Tuesday and Wednesday, and finally to end the period on Friday. In each of these bouts of southerly flow and warmth will come moderate to heavy flights of migrants. Following each of these bouts, rather strong storms may be possible as frontal boundaries between air masses push through the region. These passing storm systems may bring concentrations of birds, depending on the timing of rain and birds as well as the strength of the storms. Regardless, each passing disturbance will ground migrants for a day or two and shut down nocturnal flights.

Hudsonian Godwit © Luke Seitz

Hudsonian Godwit © Luke Seitz

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Willet 4/12 4/20 5/2 -
White-throated Sparrow 4/12 4/22 5/2 5/15
Wilson's Phalarope 4/12 4/20 5/5 5/21
Green Heron 4/12 4/24 5/14 -
Long-billed Dowitcher 4/13 4/21 5/2 5/16
Bank Swallow 4/13 5/2 5/16 -
Dunlin 4/13 5/11 5/19 5/30
Virginia Rail 4/13 5/6 6/10 -
Solitary Sandpiper 4/15 4/24 5/4 5/15
Yellow-rumped Warbler 4/16 4/25 5/4 5/17
House Wren 4/16 4/27 5/13 -
Chimney Swift 4/16 4/28 5/16 -
Chuck-will's-widow 4/16 4/25 6/2 -
Least Sandpiper 4/18 4/29 5/10 5/24
Spotted Sandpiper 4/18 4/29 5/12 5/25

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Tree Swallow 3/20 4/12 5/6 -
Say's Phoebe 3/24 4/12 - -
Little Blue Heron 3/30 4/12 4/30 -
Franklin's Gull 3/26 4/13 4/23 5/3
Snowy Egret 4/2 4/13 4/29 -
American Bittern 4/3 4/14 - -
Osprey 4/5 4/14 4/24 5/5
Hudsonian Godwit 4/6 4/14 4/24 5/30
Yellow-headed Blackbird 4/6 4/14 - -
Lesser Yellowlegs 4/3 4/15 4/27 5/11
Cattle Egret 4/3 4/15 4/27 -
Savannah Sparrow 3/19 4/16 4/26 5/9
Eared Grebe 3/19 4/16 4/28 -
Western Grebe 4/3 4/16 6/13 -
American Avocet 4/7 4/16 4/28 -
Marbled Godwit 4/7 4/16 - -
Black-necked Stilt 4/8 4/16 4/27 -
White-faced Ibis 4/9 4/16 4/28 -
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 3/30 4/17 5/7 -
Broad-winged Hawk 4/6 4/17 5/2 5/16
Sora 4/8 4/17 5/17 -
Semipalmated Sandpiper 4/9 4/18 5/13 5/30
Semipalmated Plover 4/10 4/18 4/30 5/29

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Belted Kingfisher 3/3 3/21 4/12 -
Double-crested Cormorant 3/15 3/28 4/16 -
Turkey Vulture 3/16 3/28 4/17 -
Horned Grebe 3/3 3/29 4/17 5/6
Wilson's Snipe - 3/3 4/18 -
Northern Shoveler - 3/20 4/18 -
American White Pelican 3/15 3/22 4/18 -
Pied-billed Grebe 3/19 4/4 4/18 5/3
Cinnamon Teal 3/3 4/7 4/18 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Northern Pintail - - 3/15 4/11
Golden-crowned Kinglet - - 3/2 4/12

West

From Friday through Tuesday favorable conditions for migrants to fly extend to many parts of the West, and light to moderate movements will follow in many areas. Saturday and Monday looks especially favorable for flights, particularly in California and the Desert Southwest, but also in parts of the northern Rockies that have so far largely missed out on the fun. The second half of the forecast period will not be as favorable, with less extensive movements that generally occur in the typical hot zones in the southwest.

Nashville Warbler © Ian Davies

Nashville Warbler © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Dunlin 4/11 4/18 4/27 5/10
Willet 4/11 4/18 4/28 5/10
Least Sandpiper 4/11 4/18 4/28 5/10
Semipalmated Plover 4/12 4/20 4/30 5/12
Vaux's Swift 4/12 4/23 5/8 5/17
Wilson's Warbler 4/12 4/25 5/12 5/28
Summer Tanager 4/12 4/21 5/6 -
Brown-headed Cowbird 4/12 4/28 5/20 -
Broad-tailed Hummingbird 4/12 4/29 5/21 -
Solitary Sandpiper 4/13 4/22 5/2 5/14
Forster's Tern 4/13 4/25 5/10 -
Lark Sparrow 4/13 4/26 5/13 -
Plumbeous Vireo 4/13 4/25 5/18 -
Lazuli Bunting 4/13 4/27 5/18 -
Hermit Warbler 4/14 4/25 5/8 -
Red-necked Phalarope 4/16 4/29 5/13 5/28
Brown-crested Flycatcher 4/16 4/27 5/17 -
Long-billed Dowitcher 4/17 4/25 5/4 5/16
Virginia's Warbler 4/17 4/27 5/10 -
Green-tailed Towhee 4/18 4/28 5/7 -
Chipping Sparrow 4/18 4/30 5/14 -
Yellow-breasted Chat 4/18 5/2 5/25 -
Blue Grosbeak 4/18 5/13 5/27 -
Olive-sided Flycatcher 4/18 5/4 6/5 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Blue-winged Teal 3/27 4/11 5/5 5/24
Yellow-headed Blackbird 3/27 4/11 5/17 -
Black-throated Gray Warbler 3/28 4/13 4/28 -
Bonaparte's Gull 4/3 4/14 4/25 5/6
Nashville Warbler 4/3 4/14 4/28 5/10
Caspian Tern 4/2 4/15 4/29 -
Lesser Yellowlegs 4/5 4/15 4/26 5/10
Cliff Swallow 3/18 4/16 6/22 -
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 3/21 4/16 5/11 -
Dusky-capped Flycatcher 4/4 4/16 5/2 -
Ash-throated Flycatcher 4/4 4/16 5/4 -
Brewer's Blackbird 4/5 4/16 5/27 -
White-faced Ibis 4/7 4/16 5/1 5/29
Short-billed Dowitcher 4/2 4/17 4/26 5/8
Marbled Godwit - 4/17 4/25 5/7
Western Sandpiper 4/10 4/18 4/29 5/11
Dunlin 4/11 4/18 4/27 5/10
Willet 4/11 4/18 4/28 5/10
Least Sandpiper 4/11 4/18 4/28 5/10

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Rufous Hummingbird 3/3 3/21 4/11 -
Golden-crowned Sparrow - - 4/13 5/2
Gadwall - - 4/14 5/21
Greater Yellowlegs - 4/6 4/16 5/2

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Common Goldeneye - - - 4/11
Dark-eyed Junco - - - 4/11
Barrow's Goldeneye - - - 4/12
American Wigeon - - 3/2 4/16
Canvasback - - - 4/16
Fox Sparrow - - - 4/16

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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