Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 16-23 October 2015

Benjamin Van Doren The Cornell Lab Oct 16, 2015

Yellow-rumped Warbler (Myrtle), Chris Wood

Yellow-rumped Warbler (Myrtle), Chris Wood

Continental Summary

Favorable conditions mid period bring light to moderate movements of American Wigeon, Ring-necked Duck, Pied-billed Grebe, Bald Eagle, Northern Flicker, and Yellow-rumped Warbler to the West, while moderate to very heavy weekend movements of Gadwall, Ruddy Duck, Horned Grebe, Sandhill Crane, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Eastern Meadowlark, and Fox Sparrow take flight in the East.

Want to know what birds were on the move last week? Check out our analysis.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Favorable winds and cooler temperatures spreading across the region will bring moderate to very heavy flights to many areas for the weekend. This will include extensive nocturnal flights as well as morning flights, particularly in coastal areas. By Monday, southerly flow and high pressure building from the west slow the flood gates in most areas away from the immediate coast. As this air mass moves east, much of the region will see only light movements on Tuesday. Another disturbance in passage by this time will bring some changes to the intensity and extent of movements, but these will not be uniform: for the remainder of the week much of the region sees multiple transitions from locally favorable to unfavorable conditions, with similar transitions from moderate and heavy flights to minimal movement.

Ruddy Duck, Chris Wood

Ruddy Duck, Chris Wood

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Red-throated Loon ** 16-Oct 3-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec 15-Dec
Bufflehead *** 18-Oct 1-Nov 21-Nov 4-Dec 13-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser *** 18-Oct 5-Nov 28-Nov - -
White-winged Crossbill * 18-Oct 31-Oct 17-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec
Hooded Merganser *** 20-Oct 4-Nov 26-Nov 9-Dec 24-Dec
Cave Swallow * 21-Oct 2-Nov 17-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec
Common Redpoll * 22-Oct 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Common Goldeneye *** 23-Oct 13-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Northern Goshawk * 3-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 16-Nov 28-Nov
Northern Saw-whet Owl * 3-Oct 16-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov 24-Nov
Ruddy Duck *** 30-Sep 17-Oct 10-Nov 30-Nov -
Fox Sparrow *** 30-Sep 17-Oct 8-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec
Redhead * 2-Oct 18-Oct 12-Nov - -
Gadwall *** 3-Oct 19-Oct 13-Nov 30-Nov -
White-winged Scoter * 1-Oct 19-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec
Red-necked Grebe * 6-Oct 19-Oct 7-Nov 22-Nov 8-Dec
Golden Eagle * 8-Oct 19-Oct 2-Nov 16-Nov 27-Nov
Greater Scaup * 6-Oct 20-Oct 23-Dec After Dec 31 -
Evening Grosbeak * 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 18-Nov 28-Nov
Canvasback * 7-Oct 21-Oct 17-Dec - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 5-Oct 21-Oct 12-Nov 27-Nov 12-Dec
Northern Shrike * 9-Oct 22-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Snow Bunting *** 12-Oct 23-Oct 9-Nov 22-Nov 1-Dec

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Wilson's Snipe * 6-Aug 1-Oct 16-Oct 2-Nov 19-Nov
Field Sparrow *** 21-Sep 2-Oct 16-Oct 3-Nov 15-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark * 17-Sep 29-Sep 16-Oct 2-Nov 17-Nov
Brown Creeper ** 15-Sep 28-Sep 17-Oct 30-Oct 9-Nov
Winter Wren ** 14-Sep 28-Sep 17-Oct 31-Oct 12-Nov
Golden-crowned Kinglet *** 18-Sep 30-Sep 18-Oct 2-Nov 15-Nov
Common Grackle *** 1-Oct 8-Oct 18-Oct 8-Nov 23-Nov
Eastern Bluebird *** 9-Sep 25-Sep 19-Oct 11-Nov 29-Nov
Hermit Thrush *** 20-Sep 3-Oct 19-Oct 5-Nov 17-Nov
White-throated Sparrow *** 16-Sep 29-Sep 19-Oct 2-Nov 13-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird *** 21-Sep 3-Oct 19-Oct 7-Nov 23-Nov
Northern Harrier * 1-Aug 26-Sep 20-Oct 10-Nov 27-Nov
Song Sparrow *** 8-Sep 10-Oct 20-Oct 1-Nov -
Saltmarsh Sparrow * 15-Sep 10-Oct 20-Oct 5-Nov 15-Nov
Vesper Sparrow * 24-Sep 6-Oct 21-Oct 7-Nov 18-Nov
American Pipit * 5-Sep 21-Sep 22-Oct 17-Nov 4-Dec
Rusty Blackbird ** 18-Sep 3-Oct 23-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Sora * 12-Aug 28-Aug 21-Sep 16-Oct 30-Oct
Great Blue Heron *** - Before July 1 10-Aug 19-Oct 8-Dec
Great Egret *** Before July 1 11-Jul 12-Aug 19-Oct 6-Nov
American Kestrel *** 27-Aug 10-Sep 28-Sep 19-Oct 5-Nov
Eastern Phoebe *** 4-Sep 16-Sep 30-Sep 20-Oct 3-Nov
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker *** 10-Sep 22-Sep 7-Oct 21-Oct 31-Oct
Blue-headed Vireo *** 6-Sep 19-Sep 4-Oct 21-Oct 2-Nov
Clay-colored Sparrow * 5-Sep 17-Sep 4-Oct 21-Oct 3-Nov
Blue-winged Teal ** 4-Aug 18-Aug 9-Sep 22-Oct 6-Nov
Peregrine Falcon *** 6-Sep 20-Sep 5-Oct 22-Oct 3-Nov
Palm Warbler *** 4-Sep 18-Sep 5-Oct 22-Oct 4-Nov
Lincoln's Sparrow *** 7-Sep 19-Sep 5-Oct 22-Oct 2-Nov

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to very heavy flights abound on the weekend, and continue in more easterly reaches of the region through the remainder of the period, particularly in the Carolinas through Florida. However, many areas west of the Mississippi River will experience substantial reductions in flights after the beginning of the work week, including a total migration shutdown in intense precipitation to end the period.

Savannah Sparrow, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Snow Goose ** 16-Oct 2-Nov 7-Dec - -
Redhead *** 17-Oct 31-Oct 20-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec
Cinnamon Teal * 18-Oct 30-Oct 23-Nov - -
Ross's Goose * 18-Oct 8-Nov 11-Dec - -
Rusty Blackbird * 20-Oct 9-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Ferruginous Hawk * 22-Oct 8-Nov 29-Nov 16-Dec After Dec 31
Canvasback ** 23-Oct 8-Nov 7-Dec - -
Common Loon *** 23-Oct 7-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Lesser Scaup *** 23-Oct 7-Nov 4-Dec - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Eastern Meadowlark *** 2-Oct 16-Oct 3-Nov 14-Nov -
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 1-Oct 16-Oct 15-Dec - -
Swamp Sparrow ** 4-Oct 16-Oct 16-Dec - -
Double-crested Cormorant *** 25-Sep 17-Oct 21-Nov 27-Nov 1-Dec
Blue-headed Vireo * 1-Sep 18-Oct 18-Dec After Dec 31 -
Spotted Towhee * 5-Oct 18-Oct 16-Dec - -
Winter Wren * 7-Oct 18-Oct 14-Dec - -
Golden-crowned Kinglet ** 7-Oct 19-Oct 14-Dec - -
Savannah Sparrow ** 6-Oct 19-Oct 20-Dec - -
Western Meadowlark * 3-Oct 19-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 8-Dec
Wilson's Snipe * 20-Sep 19-Oct 15-Dec - -
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 6-Oct 19-Oct 20-Dec After Dec 31 -
American Avocet * 1-Sep 20-Oct 5-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Franklin's Gull * 8-Oct 20-Oct 5-Nov 21-Nov 4-Dec
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 6-Oct 20-Oct 12-Nov - -
Song Sparrow *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 16-Dec After Dec 31 -
Vesper Sparrow * 8-Oct 20-Oct 18-Dec - -
White-crowned Sparrow ** 7-Oct 20-Oct 14-Dec - -
White-throated Sparrow *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 15-Dec - -
Brown Creeper * 8-Oct 21-Oct 17-Dec - -
Great Blue Heron ** 27-Jul 21-Oct 19-Nov - -
Northern Harrier *** 26-Sep 21-Oct 17-Nov - -
Sprague's Pipit * 11-Oct 21-Oct 7-Nov - -
Field Sparrow ** 11-Oct 22-Oct 17-Dec - -
Hermit Thrush *** 11-Oct 22-Oct 16-Dec - -
American Coot *** 5-Oct 23-Oct 20-Nov - -
Chipping Sparrow *** 12-Oct 23-Oct 17-Dec After Dec 31 -
Dunlin ** 9-Oct 23-Oct 14-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe *** 2-Oct 23-Oct 25-Nov - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Northern Flicker *** 14-Sep 29-Sep 18-Oct 2-Nov -
Palm Warbler *** 15-Sep 29-Sep 19-Oct 2-Nov 12-Nov
Eastern Towhee *** 7-Sep 15-Sep 21-Oct 8-Nov 22-Nov

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Redstart *** 29-Aug 11-Sep 28-Sep 16-Oct 30-Oct
Cape May Warbler ** 31-Aug 12-Sep 29-Sep 16-Oct 31-Oct
Ovenbird *** 26-Aug 9-Sep 27-Sep 16-Oct 2-Nov
Northern Parula *** 7-Aug 3-Sep 23-Sep 17-Oct 2-Nov
Black-and-white Warbler *** 18-Aug 6-Sep 26-Sep 18-Oct 5-Nov
Black-billed Cuckoo * 17-Aug 5-Sep 26-Sep 18-Oct 1-Nov
Gray-cheeked Thrush ** 6-Sep 17-Sep 2-Oct 19-Oct 30-Oct
Magnolia Warbler *** 1-Sep 14-Sep 1-Oct 19-Oct 1-Nov
Wood Thrush *** 3-Sep 16-Sep 2-Oct 19-Oct 31-Oct
Yellow-throated Warbler *** 31-Jul 6-Sep 26-Sep 19-Oct 4-Nov
Clay-colored Sparrow * 2-Sep 15-Sep 4-Oct 21-Oct 4-Nov
Rose-breasted Grosbeak *** 7-Sep 19-Sep 4-Oct 21-Oct 1-Nov
Tennessee Warbler *** 31-Aug 15-Sep 3-Oct 22-Oct 5-Nov
Common Yellowthroat *** 2-Sep 16-Sep 5-Oct 23-Oct 6-Nov
Peregrine Falcon ** 9-Sep 22-Sep 8-Oct 23-Oct 3-Nov
Swainson's Hawk * - - 28-Sep 23-Oct 19-Nov

Great Plains

A quick start to the weekend with moderate to heavy flights will be short lived, as southerly flow returns and quiets the system for Saturday and Sunday. By Monday night, the northern Plains get back in the action with moderate to heavy flights, some of which will continue locally through Tuesday and Wednesday nights. A substantial disturbance arrives to end the period, shutting down migrants and keeping birds in place.

Greater White-fronted Geese, Ian Davies

Greater White-fronted Geese, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Bald Eagle *** 16-Oct 5-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Common Redpoll * 16-Oct 2-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Hooded Merganser *** 17-Oct 30-Oct 20-Nov 2-Dec 11-Dec
Snow Goose *** 18-Oct 1-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec 15-Dec
Greater Scaup ** 19-Oct 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 10-Dec
Ross's Goose ** 19-Oct 2-Nov 23-Nov 7-Dec 19-Dec
Bufflehead *** 20-Oct 3-Nov 19-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Sandhill Crane *** 5-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 15-Nov 25-Nov
American Wigeon *** 5-Oct 18-Oct 4-Nov 20-Nov 3-Dec
Greater White-fronted Goose *** 6-Oct 18-Oct 3-Nov 15-Nov -
Western Grebe ** 2-Sep 18-Oct 31-Oct 19-Nov 3-Dec
Green-winged Teal *** 7-Oct 19-Oct 4-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec
Northern Shrike * 8-Oct 19-Oct 17-Dec - -
Gadwall *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 7-Nov 20-Nov 1-Dec
Horned Grebe *** 7-Oct 20-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov 9-Dec
Northern Pintail *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 19-Nov 1-Dec
Ring-necked Duck *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 7-Nov 19-Nov 29-Nov
Ruddy Duck *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec
Snow Bunting ** 10-Oct 20-Oct 5-Nov - -
Lapland Longspur * 9-Oct 21-Oct 21-Dec - -
Herring Gull ** 30-Sep 22-Oct 28-Nov After Dec 31 -
Northern Shoveler *** 11-Oct 22-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec
Redhead *** 10-Oct 22-Oct 7-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Rusty Blackbird * 6-Oct 22-Oct 13-Nov - -
American Tree Sparrow *** 11-Oct 23-Oct 21-Dec - -
Ring-billed Gull *** 16-Jul 23-Oct 10-Nov 29-Nov -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American White Pelican ** 22-Aug 9-Sep 16-Oct 18-Nov 9-Dec
Le Conte's Sparrow *** 21-Sep 1-Oct 17-Oct 1-Nov 12-Nov
Swamp Sparrow *** 18-Sep 30-Sep 17-Oct 2-Nov 13-Nov
Field Sparrow *** 18-Sep 30-Sep 18-Oct 6-Nov 17-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow *** 16-Sep 30-Sep 18-Oct 3-Nov 15-Nov
White-throated Sparrow *** 13-Sep 28-Sep 18-Oct 3-Nov 16-Nov
Wilson's Snipe ** 7-Aug 3-Oct 18-Oct 4-Nov 16-Nov
American Avocet *** - - 19-Oct 11-Nov 25-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark *** 17-Sep 1-Oct 19-Oct 5-Nov 17-Nov
Double-crested Cormorant *** 8-Sep 25-Sep 22-Oct 24-Nov 17-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Clay-colored Sparrow *** 20-Aug 3-Sep 24-Sep 16-Oct 31-Oct
Great Egret *** - 15-Jul 11-Sep 16-Oct 10-Nov
Turkey Vulture *** 20-Aug 8-Sep 22-Sep 16-Oct 30-Oct
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher *** 6-Sep 16-Sep 28-Sep 19-Oct 2-Nov
Cooper's Hawk ** 8-Aug 2-Sep 25-Sep 20-Oct 10-Nov
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 3-Sep 17-Sep 3-Oct 21-Oct 2-Nov
Sora * 18-Aug 6-Sep 29-Sep 22-Oct 5-Nov
American Golden-Plover * 6-Aug 3-Sep 27-Sep 23-Oct 19-Nov

West

Precipitation and marginal conditions for flight will be spread across the region for the weekend, keeping movements light and local. By Monday, portions of California north and east through the Great Basin and northern Rockies will begin to experience more favorable conditions and light to moderate flights. The favorable conditions reach their greatest extents on Tuesday night, and much of the region away from the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies experiences light to moderate flights. As the period draws to a close, favorable conditions persist but become increasingly scattered; migration intensities will be light to locally moderate, but mirror the scattered patterns of good flight conditions in place and time.

Horned Grebe, Ian Davies

Horned Grebe, Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Rusty Blackbird * 16-Oct 30-Oct 18-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser *** 17-Oct 1-Nov 21-Nov - -
Pacific Loon * 18-Oct 1-Nov 17-Nov - -
Hooded Merganser *** 18-Oct 2-Nov 26-Nov 6-Dec 14-Dec
Short-eared Owl * 20-Oct 5-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Tundra Swan ** 21-Oct 3-Nov 22-Nov - -
Bohemian Waxwing * 22-Oct 22-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Barrow's Goldeneye ** 23-Oct 7-Nov 2-Dec - -
Brant * 23-Oct 6-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Ring-necked Duck ** 24-Sep 17-Oct 7-Dec - -
Pied-billed Grebe ** 27-Jul 18-Oct 11-Nov 29-Nov -
Horned Grebe ** 21-Sep 18-Oct 11-Nov 26-Nov 6-Dec
American Wigeon *** 3-Sep 19-Oct 20-Nov 4-Dec 16-Dec
Clark's Grebe * 7-Oct 20-Oct 6-Nov 23-Nov -
Red-necked Grebe * 26-Aug 20-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov -
Common Loon ** 7-Oct 21-Oct 7-Nov 24-Nov -
Greater Scaup * 5-Oct 21-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Redhead * 3-Oct 21-Oct 14-Nov 3-Dec After Dec 31
Surf Scoter ** 28-Sep 21-Oct 12-Nov - -
Bald Eagle ** 28-Sep 22-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Mew Gull ** 4-Oct 22-Oct 17-Nov - -
White-winged Scoter * 20-Sep 22-Oct 10-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 2-Sep 26-Sep 17-Oct 29-Oct 8-Nov
Palm Warbler * 13-Sep 27-Sep 18-Oct 5-Nov 29-Nov
Red-throated Pipit * 19-Sep 2-Oct 19-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov
Northern Flicker *** 6-Sep 27-Sep 20-Oct 5-Nov 20-Nov
Golden-crowned Sparrow ** 12-Sep 27-Sep 21-Oct 30-Oct 7-Nov
Sharp-shinned Hawk * 23-Aug 9-Sep 22-Oct 8-Nov -
Western Meadowlark * 10-Sep 27-Sep 22-Oct 8-Nov 6-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Brewer's Blackbird ** 23-Aug 8-Sep 28-Sep 16-Oct 10-Nov
Savannah Sparrow ** 13-Aug 29-Aug 27-Sep 21-Oct 9-Nov
Black-throated Gray Warbler *** 30-Jul 13-Aug 30-Sep 22-Oct 4-Nov
Lincoln's Sparrow ** 30-Aug 13-Sep 5-Oct 22-Oct 8-Nov
Pomarine Jaeger * 20-Jul 30-Aug 25-Sep 22-Oct 14-Nov

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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