Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 20-27 October 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 21, 2017

Northern Harrier. Mary Catherine Miguez/Macaulay Library. eBird S39995621.

Continental Summary

Several pulses of favorable migration conditions bring mid to late period moderate flights featuring Common Loon, Dunlin, Bonaparte’s Gull, Belted Kingfisher, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Marsh Wren, Hermit Thrush, and White-throated Sparrow to many areas of the West, while two frontal passages spawn moderate to very heavy flights featuring Double-crested Cormorant, Northern Harrier, Belted Kingfisher, Vesper Sparrow, Common Grackle, and Red-winged Blackbird in the East.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Aside from light to moderate flights in localized marginal migration conditions in the first days of the forecast period, southerly flow and warmer than typical conditions keep most migration to a minimum across the region. A significant frontal passages changes the game on Monday, bringing moderate to very heavy flights in favorable migration conditions. These movements first occur in Upper Midwest on Monday night and Tuesday, gradually spreading to the east of the Appalachians by Wednesday night. Another frontal passage occurs at the end of the forecast period, bringing another bout of favorable migration conditions and moderate to heavy flights.

Green-winged Teal. Daniel Jauvin/Macaulay Library. eBird S39620019.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Great Cormorant * 9/5 11/16 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/7 10/23 11/9 11/17 11/24
Greater Scaup * 10/9 10/22 After Nov 30 - -
Red-necked Grebe * 10/11 10/23 11/5 11/15 11/23
Red-throated Loon ** 10/11 10/28 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback * 10/12 10/23 After Nov 30 - -
Lesser Scaup *** 10/12 10/25 11/14 11/20 After Nov 30
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/12 10/25 11/11 After Nov 30 -
White-winged Scoter ** 10/12 10/24 11/6 11/13 11/18
Common Loon *** 10/14 10/26 11/11 11/24 After Nov 30
Horned Grebe *** 10/15 10/26 11/11 11/17 11/22
Common Merganser ** 10/16 11/29 After Nov 30 - -
Red-breasted Merganser *** 10/16 11/1 After Nov 30 - -
Long-tailed Duck *** 10/18 10/27 After Nov 30 - -
Bufflehead ****! 10/20 10/30 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/20 11/3 After Nov 30 - -
Common Goldeneye *** 10/24 11/29 After Nov 30 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Pipit ** 9/10 9/22 10/24 11/11 11/25
Rusty Blackbird ** 9/19 10/3 10/23 11/10 After Nov 30
American Wigeon ** 9/23 10/8 10/28 11/10 11/29
Purple Finch *** 9/26 10/8 10/24 11/8 After Nov 30
Northern Harrier ** 8/2 10/9 10/21 11/2 11/13
Pine Siskin *** 9/27 10/10 10/28 11/11 After Nov 30
Green-winged Teal ** 8/13 10/11 10/24 After Nov 30 -
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/4 10/11 10/31 11/20 After Nov 30
Northern Shoveler * 8/9 10/12 11/8 After Nov 30 -
Northern Pintail ** 9/5 10/12 10/27 11/7 After Nov 30
Vesper Sparrow * 10/5 10/12 10/21 11/2 11/10
Brant ** 10/1 10/13 10/30 11/8 11/15
American Black Duck ** 9/23 10/14 After Nov 30 - -
Dark-eyed Junco ****! 9/28 10/14 11/10 11/16 11/22
Fox Sparrow *** 9/28 10/16 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck *** 9/29 10/17 11/8 11/23 After Nov 30
Dunlin ** 9/13 10/17 10/29 11/11 11/22
Gadwall ** 10/4 10/19 11/12 11/22 After Nov 30
Redhead * 9/28 10/19 11/14 11/18 11/20
Surf Scoter * 9/25 10/19 11/4 11/12 11/17
Greater Scaup * 10/9 10/22 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback * 10/12 10/23 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/7 10/23 11/9 11/17 11/24
Red-necked Grebe * 10/11 10/23 11/5 11/15 11/23
White-winged Scoter ** 10/12 10/24 11/6 11/13 11/18
Lesser Scaup ** 10/12 10/25 11/14 11/20 After Nov 30
Bonaparte's Gull ** 10/12 10/25 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Common Loon *** 10/14 10/26 11/11 11/24 After Nov 30
Horned Grebe *** 10/15 10/26 11/11 11/17 11/22
Long-tailed Duck ** 10/18 10/27 After Nov 30 - -
Red-throated Loon ** 10/11 10/28 After Nov 30 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Killdeer *** - - Before Aug 1 10/25 11/24
Tree Swallow *** - 8/2 8/9 10/25 11/6
Great Egret *** - 8/2 8/13 10/22 11/5
Laughing Gull ** - 8/2 8/14 After Nov 30 -
Greater Yellowlegs ** - 8/2 8/20 11/11 After Nov 30
Wood Duck ** - 8/2 8/21 11/2 11/22
Royal Tern * - 8/2 8/21 11/8 After Nov 30
Blue-winged Teal ** 8/2 8/19 9/7 10/22 11/5
Turkey Vulture *** 8/28 9/6 9/19 10/27 After Nov 30
Merlin * 8/26 9/4 9/20 10/26 11/6
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/26 9/5 9/21 11/10 11/19
American Kestrel ** 8/29 9/6 9/26 10/22 11/2
Blue Jay *** 8/23 9/8 9/28 10/30 11/26
Palm Warbler *** 9/2 9/21 10/6 10/21 11/1
Eastern Towhee *** 9/23 9/30 10/9 10/23 11/3
Cooper's Hawk *** 8/2 9/7 10/11 10/28 11/8
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/19 9/29 10/12 10/26 11/7
Chipping Sparrow *** 9/16 10/2 10/12 10/29 11/9
Savannah Sparrow *** 9/12 9/26 10/12 10/29 11/12
American Robin *** 9/13 9/24 10/13 11/8 After Nov 30
Swamp Sparrow *** 9/20 9/30 10/13 10/27 11/10
Brown Creeper ** 9/19 9/29 10/14 10/24 11/5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/18 9/30 10/14 10/28 11/8
Song Sparrow *** 9/19 10/1 10/14 10/28 11/10
Winter Wren ** 9/17 9/28 10/15 10/28 11/8
Golden-crowned Kinglet *** 9/22 10/1 10/15 11/6 11/18
White-crowned Sparrow *** 9/23 10/2 10/15 10/27 11/6
Wilson's Snipe * 9/24 10/3 10/16 10/29 After Nov 30
Eastern Meadowlark * 9/17 10/2 10/16 10/30 11/11
Sharp-shinned Hawk *** 8/31 9/10 10/17 10/30 After Nov 30
Eastern Bluebird ** 9/12 9/27 10/18 11/12 After Nov 30
Field Sparrow *** 9/29 10/8 10/18 10/30 11/8
White-throated Sparrow *** 9/18 9/30 10/18 10/31 11/12
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9/24 10/4 10/18 11/6 After Nov 30
Common Grackle *** 10/2 10/8 10/18 11/7 After Nov 30
Hermit Thrush *** 9/25 10/6 10/19 10/31 11/10
Northern Harrier ** 8/2 10/9 10/21 11/2 11/13
Vesper Sparrow ** 10/5 10/12 10/21 11/2 11/10
Rusty Blackbird ** 9/19 10/3 10/23 11/10 After Nov 30
Green-winged Teal *** 8/13 10/11 10/24 After Nov 30 -
Purple Finch ** 9/26 10/8 10/24 11/8 After Nov 30
American Pipit ** 9/10 9/22 10/24 11/11 11/25
Northern Pintail * 9/5 10/12 10/27 11/7 After Nov 30
American Wigeon * 9/23 10/8 10/28 11/10 11/29
Pine Siskin ** 9/27 10/10 10/28 11/11 After Nov 30

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Black Skimmer * - - Before Aug 1 8/3 10/28
Little Blue Heron * - 8/2 8/9 8/25 10/24
Black-crowned Night-Heron * - 8/2 8/9 8/25 10/27
Northern Rough-winged Swallow ** - - Before Aug 1 8/25 10/25
Black-bellied Plover * - 8/2 8/18 8/27 After Nov 30
Pectoral Sandpiper ** 8/11 8/17 8/23 9/7 11/13
Caspian Tern ** - 8/2 8/20 9/12 10/22
Cedar Waxwing *** - 8/2 8/17 9/25 After Nov 30
Forster's Tern * - 8/2 8/16 9/26 After Nov 30
House Wren *** 8/30 9/5 9/15 10/7 10/21
Blackpoll Warbler *** 8/28 9/7 9/22 10/8 10/23
Gray Catbird *** 8/28 9/8 9/18 10/9 10/22
Common Yellowthroat *** 8/24 9/2 9/17 10/9 10/23
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron * - 8/2 8/6 10/10 10/28
Northern Flicker *** 8/30 9/12 9/25 10/10 10/30
Nashville Warbler *** 8/23 9/3 9/20 10/10 10/22
Sora * 8/12 8/21 9/24 10/12 10/25
Pine Warbler *** 8/23 9/4 9/21 10/12 10/26
Indigo Bunting *** 9/10 9/16 9/25 10/12 10/21
Black-throated Blue Warbler *** 8/23 9/2 9/25 10/14 10/23
Belted Kingfisher *** - 8/2 9/19 10/16 10/29
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker *** 9/16 9/25 10/5 10/16 10/24
Snowy Egret ** - 8/2 8/11 10/17 10/31
Peregrine Falcon *** 8/2 9/23 10/4 10/17 10/28
Red-breasted Nuthatch * 8/12 9/4 10/2 10/17 After Nov 30
Marsh Wren ** 9/7 9/19 9/30 10/17 10/29
Eastern Phoebe *** 9/9 9/18 9/30 10/18 11/3
Osprey *** - 8/2 8/15 10/19 11/4
Blue-headed Vireo *** 9/8 9/21 10/4 10/19 10/31
Lincoln's Sparrow *** 9/10 9/22 10/5 10/19 10/31
Great Blue Heron *** - 8/2 8/15 10/20 After Nov 30
Palm Warbler *** 9/2 9/21 10/6 10/21 11/1
Blue-winged Teal *** 8/2 8/19 9/7 10/22 11/5
Great Egret *** - 8/2 8/13 10/22 11/5
American Kestrel *** 8/29 9/6 9/26 10/22 11/2
Eastern Towhee *** 9/23 9/30 10/9 10/23 11/3
Brown Creeper ** 9/19 9/29 10/14 10/24 11/5
Killdeer *** - - Before Aug 1 10/25 11/24
Tree Swallow *** - 8/2 8/9 10/25 11/6
Merlin *** 8/26 9/4 9/20 10/26 11/6
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/19 9/29 10/12 10/26 11/7
Turkey Vulture *** 8/28 9/6 9/19 10/27 After Nov 30
Swamp Sparrow *** 9/20 9/30 10/13 10/27 11/10
White-crowned Sparrow *** 9/23 10/2 10/15 10/27 11/6
Cooper's Hawk *** 8/2 9/7 10/11 10/28 11/8
Winter Wren ** 9/17 9/28 10/15 10/28 11/8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/18 9/30 10/14 10/28 11/8
Song Sparrow *** 9/19 10/1 10/14 10/28 11/10

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A slow weekend of migration evolves to a more exciting beginning to the work week. A frontal boundary will move across the region on Sunday night, spawning moderate to very heavy flights in Texas. Monday night sees these movements expand to the Mississippi River, and by Tuesday night heavy migration will be widespread across the region. These movements continue mostly east of the Appalachians on Wednesday night, as southerly flow returns and slows movements in most other areas farther west. Another frontal passage arrives at the end of the period, bringing another bout of highly favorable migration conditions and significantly large flights.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker. William Rivera/Macaulay Library. eBird S40018339.

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Great Blue Heron *** 8/2 11/5 11/16 After Nov 30 -
American Avocet * 8/2 10/22 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Northern Harrier *** 9/16 10/27 11/16 After Nov 30 -
Herring Gull ** 9/22 11/29 After Nov 30 - -
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/25 10/31 11/20 After Nov 30 -
American White Pelican *** 9/29 10/30 11/15 11/21 After Nov 30
Red-tailed Hawk *** 10/1 10/26 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Sandhill Crane ** 10/8 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
American Wigeon *** 10/10 10/30 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Dunlin *** 10/10 10/26 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Green-winged Teal *** 10/11 11/4 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Vesper Sparrow *** 10/12 10/23 11/7 11/15 11/22
Chipping Sparrow *** 10/13 10/24 After Nov 30 - -
Franklin's Gull ** 10/14 10/26 11/7 11/25 After Nov 30
Field Sparrow *** 10/14 10/25 11/14 After Nov 30 -
Pine Siskin ** 10/14 10/30 After Nov 30 - -
Hermit Thrush *** 10/15 10/25 11/11 11/17 11/21
Gadwall *** 10/17 10/30 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 11/18 11/24
Northern Pintail *** 10/18 10/31 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck *** 10/18 11/1 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Common Gallinule *** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Common Gallinule *** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Dark-eyed Junco *** 10/18 11/2 After Nov 30 - -
Northern Gannet * 10/19 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/20 11/5 11/23 After Nov 30 -
Redhead *** 10/21 11/3 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Eared Grebe * 10/21 11/4 11/24 After Nov 30 -
Black-necked Stilt ** 10/21 10/29 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Northern Shoveler *** 10/22 11/4 11/19 After Nov 30 -
American Pipit *** 10/22 11/4 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Snow Goose *** 10/23 11/5 After Nov 30 - -
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck ** 10/24 10/30 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Ross's Goose * 10/24 11/7 After Nov 30 - -
Common Loon *** 10/27 11/8 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback ** 10/28 11/8 After Nov 30 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Black-bellied Plover * - 8/2 10/31 After Nov 30 -
Caspian Tern * - 8/2 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Blue-winged Teal * 8/8 8/26 11/8 11/29 After Nov 30
Bald Eagle ** 9/3 9/15 11/21 After Nov 30 -
Belted Kingfisher *** 8/13 9/18 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Sora * 8/29 9/21 11/7 11/17 After Nov 30
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 9/8 9/24 10/28 11/15 After Nov 30
Brown-headed Cowbird ** 9/15 9/27 10/23 After Nov 30 -
American Kestrel *** 9/12 9/29 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Black Vulture ** 8/28 9/30 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Tree Swallow ** 9/24 10/3 11/2 11/14 11/22
Marsh Wren ** 9/20 10/3 11/1 11/18 After Nov 30
Lincoln's Sparrow ** 9/23 10/4 10/31 11/13 11/21
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9/22 10/4 11/9 After Nov 30 -
House Wren *** 9/23 10/6 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30
American Bittern * 9/14 10/9 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Eastern Phoebe *** 9/25 10/9 10/30 After Nov 30 -
Common Grackle *** 9/29 10/9 10/21 After Nov 30 -
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker *** 9/30 10/9 10/24 10/31 11/6
Double-crested Cormorant *** 9/27 10/11 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Red-breasted Nuthatch * 10/2 10/11 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Sedge Wren * 9/28 10/11 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/26 10/14 11/16 11/24 After Nov 30
Wilson's Snipe ** 9/30 10/15 11/14 After Nov 30 -
Blue-headed Vireo ** 9/3 10/15 10/31 11/8 11/14
Eastern Meadowlark *** 10/2 10/15 11/3 11/23 After Nov 30
Spotted Towhee * 10/5 10/16 After Nov 30 - -
Winter Wren * 10/7 10/17 After Nov 30 - -
Golden-crowned Kinglet *** 10/7 10/17 11/15 After Nov 30 -
Brown Creeper * 10/6 10/18 11/23 After Nov 30 -
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 10/6 10/18 After Nov 30 - -
Song Sparrow *** 10/7 10/19 11/17 After Nov 30 -
White-throated Sparrow *** 10/9 10/19 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Western Meadowlark * 10/2 10/19 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Savannah Sparrow *** 10/5 10/20 11/10 11/27 After Nov 30
American Avocet * 8/2 10/22 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Vesper Sparrow ** 10/12 10/23 11/7 11/15 11/22
Chipping Sparrow *** 10/13 10/24 After Nov 30 - -
Hermit Thrush *** 10/15 10/25 11/11 11/17 11/21
Field Sparrow *** 10/14 10/25 11/14 After Nov 30 -
Red-tailed Hawk *** 10/1 10/26 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Dunlin ** 10/10 10/26 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Franklin's Gull * 10/14 10/26 11/7 11/25 After Nov 30
Northern Harrier *** 9/16 10/27 11/16 After Nov 30 -
Common Gallinule ** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Common Gallinule ** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 11/18 11/24

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Piping Plover * - 8/2 8/20 After Nov 30 -
Red-headed Woodpecker ** 8/22 9/4 9/18 10/26 11/5
Northern Parula *** 8/11 9/2 9/19 10/24 11/4
Black-and-white Warbler *** 8/22 9/5 9/22 10/25 11/5
Ovenbird *** 8/26 9/11 9/25 10/25 11/5
Cape May Warbler * 9/3 9/12 9/25 10/28 11/5
Tennessee Warbler *** 8/31 9/11 10/3 10/23 11/3
Nashville Warbler ** 8/30 9/11 10/4 10/24 11/12
Clay-colored Sparrow * 9/2 9/16 10/4 10/21 11/6
Brown Thrasher *** 9/2 9/22 10/6 10/21 11/3
Common Yellowthroat *** 9/1 9/17 10/6 10/21 11/2
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher *** 9/8 9/23 10/7 11/3 11/23
Merlin * 9/8 9/18 10/9 11/2 11/16
Pine Warbler *** 8/15 9/1 10/9 10/26 11/3
Gray Catbird *** 9/16 9/27 10/10 10/23 11/6
Northern Mockingbird *** 9/7 9/23 10/10 10/26 11/22
Black-throated Green Warbler *** 8/28 9/6 10/10 10/25 11/6
Black-throated Blue Warbler *** 8/31 9/11 10/11 10/27 11/5
Indigo Bunting *** 9/21 9/30 10/11 10/25 11/5
Northern Rough-winged Swallow ** 9/25 10/3 10/13 11/2 11/20
Painted Bunting ** 9/28 10/4 10/14 10/29 11/9
Cooper's Hawk ** 8/2 9/21 10/17 After Nov 30 -
Northern Flicker *** 9/18 10/1 10/17 10/29 11/8
Eastern Towhee *** 9/10 10/10 10/19 11/1 11/12
Palm Warbler *** 9/15 10/5 10/20 10/31 11/7
Common Grackle *** 9/29 10/9 10/21 After Nov 30 -
Belted Kingfisher ** 8/13 9/18 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Red-breasted Nuthatch * 10/2 10/11 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Brown-headed Cowbird * 9/15 9/27 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker *** 9/30 10/9 10/24 10/31 11/6
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 9/8 9/24 10/28 11/15 After Nov 30
House Wren *** 9/23 10/6 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Blue Grosbeak ** - - Before Aug 1 8/24 10/28
Sandwich Tern * - 8/2 8/16 8/27 After Nov 30
Barn Swallow *** - 8/2 8/10 9/9 11/14
Least Sandpiper * - 8/2 8/25 9/15 After Nov 30
Western Sandpiper * 8/2 8/17 8/31 9/15 After Nov 30
Cave Swallow * 8/2 8/28 9/4 9/16 11/21
Dickcissel * 8/21 8/29 9/5 9/20 10/25
Common Tern * - 8/2 8/18 9/30 11/10
Blackburnian Warbler ** 8/26 9/5 9/18 10/3 10/28
Hooded Warbler *** 8/8 8/20 9/20 10/5 10/29
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron * - - Before Aug 1 10/8 10/23
Red-eyed Vireo *** 8/20 9/3 9/17 10/8 10/24
Chestnut-sided Warbler *** 8/23 9/6 9/22 10/9 10/23
Chimney Swift *** 8/23 9/5 9/21 10/11 10/22
White-eyed Vireo *** 8/21 9/2 9/19 10/13 10/28
Swainson's Thrush *** 9/8 9/17 9/29 10/13 10/23
Bobolink * 8/21 9/2 9/20 10/13 10/26
Prairie Warbler *** 8/2 9/7 9/22 10/14 11/3
Scarlet Tanager *** 8/30 9/12 9/28 10/14 10/25
Wood Thrush *** 9/10 9/21 10/2 10/15 10/25
Swainson's Hawk * - 8/2 10/2 10/16 10/28
Rose-breasted Grosbeak *** 9/12 9/21 10/4 10/16 10/26
Eastern Wood-Pewee *** 8/19 9/1 9/17 10/17 11/2
Peregrine Falcon *** 9/15 9/25 10/7 10/18 10/26
American Redstart *** 8/31 9/12 9/26 10/19 11/2
Magnolia Warbler *** 8/31 9/13 10/1 10/19 10/31
Yellow-throated Warbler *** 8/2 9/3 9/25 10/20 11/4
Brown Thrasher *** 9/2 9/22 10/6 10/21 11/3
Common Yellowthroat *** 9/1 9/17 10/6 10/21 11/2
Clay-colored Sparrow * 9/2 9/16 10/4 10/21 11/6
Gray Catbird *** 9/16 9/27 10/10 10/23 11/6
Tennessee Warbler *** 8/31 9/11 10/3 10/23 11/3
Nashville Warbler *** 8/30 9/11 10/4 10/24 11/12
Northern Parula *** 8/11 9/2 9/19 10/24 11/4
Ovenbird *** 8/26 9/11 9/25 10/25 11/5
Black-and-white Warbler *** 8/22 9/5 9/22 10/25 11/5
Black-throated Green Warbler *** 8/28 9/6 10/10 10/25 11/6
Indigo Bunting *** 9/21 9/30 10/11 10/25 11/5
Red-headed Woodpecker ** 8/22 9/4 9/18 10/26 11/5
Northern Mockingbird *** 9/7 9/23 10/10 10/26 11/22
Pine Warbler *** 8/15 9/1 10/9 10/26 11/3
Black-throated Blue Warbler *** 8/31 9/11 10/11 10/27 11/5
Cape May Warbler ** 9/3 9/12 9/25 10/28 11/5

Great Plains

A complex forecast for the weekend brings a patchwork of migration intensities and extents. A disturbance moving through the region produces some marginal conditions, where moderate flights are likely. By Sunday night the disturbance and advancing frontal boundary have organized themselves to track off to the east, bringing a wave of northerly winds and cooler temperatures. Moderate to very heavy migration will ensue. This pattern continues through Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday see a new system moving through the region, once again bringing favorable migration conditions in its wake; moderate to very heavy flights will again follow the passage of this system and continue into Friday.

Pied-billed Grebe. Jonathan Nikkila/Macaulay Library. eBird S39743719.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Purple Finch * 8/2 10/27 After Nov 30 - -
Herring Gull *** 9/30 10/24 After Nov 30 - -
Horned Grebe *** 10/8 10/21 11/6 11/22 After Nov 30
Northern Pintail *** 10/10 10/23 11/6 After Nov 30 -
Ring-billed Gull *** 10/11 10/23 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Rough-legged Hawk *** 10/12 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
Ruddy Duck ****! 10/13 10/24 11/6 11/21 After Nov 30
Mallard ****! 10/14 10/31 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/16 10/25 11/5 11/14 11/19
Common Loon *** 10/16 10/27 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/16 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Redhead *** 10/17 10/26 11/8 11/20 After Nov 30
Bald Eagle *** 10/17 11/10 After Nov 30 - -
Northern Shoveler ****! 10/19 10/27 11/7 11/19 After Nov 30
Canvasback *** 10/19 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Lesser Scaup ****! 10/21 10/30 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Snow Goose *** 10/23 11/3 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/23 11/3 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Ross's Goose *** 10/25 11/5 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Greater Scaup ** 10/26 11/5 11/16 After Nov 30 -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Greater Yellowlegs * - 8/2 10/27 11/16 After Nov 30
Merlin * 8/19 9/6 10/24 11/8 11/24
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/3 9/16 10/30 11/13 11/29
Double-crested Cormorant *** 9/10 9/26 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9/12 9/26 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Red-tailed Hawk *** 9/5 9/27 10/27 11/9 After Nov 30
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker * 9/12 9/27 After Nov 30 - -
Brown Creeper ** 9/18 10/5 After Nov 30 - -
American Pipit *** 9/17 10/6 10/24 11/12 After Nov 30
Song Sparrow *** 9/26 10/8 10/24 11/6 11/17
Pine Siskin ** 9/26 10/9 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Northern Harrier *** 9/12 10/11 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30
Golden-crowned Kinglet ** 9/25 10/12 11/5 11/15 After Nov 30
Dark-eyed Junco ****! 9/29 10/14 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Western Grebe * 9/6 10/17 10/31 After Nov 30 -
Greater White-fronted Goose *** 10/5 10/18 11/5 11/24 After Nov 30
Sandhill Crane *** 10/7 10/18 10/31 11/13 After Nov 30
Gadwall *** 10/9 10/20 11/7 After Nov 30 -
American Wigeon *** 10/4 10/20 11/4 11/20 After Nov 30
Green-winged Teal *** 10/5 10/20 11/5 After Nov 30 -
Horned Grebe *** 10/8 10/21 11/6 11/22 After Nov 30
Northern Pintail *** 10/10 10/23 11/6 After Nov 30 -
Ring-billed Gull *** 10/11 10/23 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck *** 10/13 10/24 11/6 11/21 After Nov 30
Herring Gull ** 9/30 10/24 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/16 10/25 11/5 11/14 11/19
Redhead *** 10/17 10/26 11/8 11/20 After Nov 30
Northern Shoveler *** 10/19 10/27 11/7 11/19 After Nov 30
Common Loon *** 10/16 10/27 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Purple Finch * 8/2 10/27 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback *** 10/19 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/16 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30 -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Killdeer *** - - Before Aug 1 11/4 After Nov 30
Wood Duck ** - 8/2 8/20 10/28 After Nov 30
Blue-winged Teal *** 8/2 8/10 9/13 10/24 11/10
Cooper's Hawk ** 8/2 9/5 9/24 10/24 11/8
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/2 9/7 9/29 10/28 11/25
Northern Flicker *** 9/7 9/16 10/1 11/4 11/13
Chipping Sparrow *** 9/20 9/24 10/1 11/1 11/13
Common Grackle *** 9/13 9/20 10/6 10/29 After Nov 30
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/7 9/21 10/8 10/24 11/8
Sedge Wren *** 9/19 9/28 10/9 10/21 10/31
Marsh Wren *** 9/14 9/27 10/9 10/23 11/5
Spotted Towhee *** 9/9 9/23 10/9 10/25 11/6
Vesper Sparrow *** 9/7 9/23 10/10 10/27 11/6
Nelson's Sparrow ** 9/23 9/30 10/10 10/21 10/29
Sprague's Pipit * 9/19 9/29 10/11 10/25 11/6
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/15 9/26 10/11 10/24 11/15
Lincoln's Sparrow *** 9/6 9/21 10/11 10/29 11/10
Savannah Sparrow *** 9/13 10/3 10/15 10/29 11/8
White-throated Sparrow *** 9/16 9/28 10/15 11/6 11/17
Western Meadowlark *** 8/2 9/9 10/15 10/29 11/7
Franklin's Gull *** 9/3 9/16 10/16 11/7 After Nov 30
Le Conte's Sparrow *** 9/25 10/4 10/16 10/28 11/7
Swamp Sparrow *** 9/21 10/2 10/16 11/2 11/14
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 8/31 10/2 10/17 10/28 After Nov 30
Eastern Meadowlark *** 9/21 10/1 10/17 11/7 11/19
American White Pelican *** 8/2 9/8 10/18 After Nov 30 -
Wilson's Snipe ** 8/2 10/3 10/18 11/3 11/16
Field Sparrow *** 9/20 10/4 10/18 11/4 11/15
American Avocet *** 9/23 10/5 10/20 11/12 After Nov 30
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9/12 9/26 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Double-crested Cormorant *** 9/10 9/26 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Merlin * 8/19 9/6 10/24 11/8 11/24
American Pipit *** 9/17 10/6 10/24 11/12 After Nov 30
Song Sparrow *** 9/26 10/8 10/24 11/6 11/17
Red-tailed Hawk ** 9/5 9/27 10/27 11/9 After Nov 30
Greater Yellowlegs ** - 8/2 10/27 11/16 After Nov 30
Northern Harrier *** 9/12 10/11 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Black-bellied Plover * - 8/2 8/21 9/1 11/21
Pectoral Sandpiper ** - - Before Aug 1 9/2 10/23
Tree Swallow ** - - Before Aug 1 9/9 11/1
Lesser Yellowlegs ** - 8/2 8/20 9/13 11/8
Black-crowned Night-Heron * - 8/2 8/27 9/27 10/28
Blue-headed Vireo *** 8/25 9/2 9/16 9/28 10/24
Cattle Egret * - - Before Aug 1 10/1 11/2
White-faced Ibis * - 8/2 9/1 10/2 10/30
Tennessee Warbler * 8/2 8/9 9/9 10/3 10/23
Mourning Dove *** - 8/2 8/17 10/4 10/25
Snowy Egret ** - 8/2 8/20 10/5 10/26
Osprey *** 8/28 9/9 9/23 10/6 11/11
Sanderling * 8/2 8/20 9/6 10/7 10/26
Northern Rough-winged Swallow ** - - Before Aug 1 10/7 10/23
Peregrine Falcon * 8/2 9/13 9/24 10/9 10/23
American Golden-Plover * 8/12 9/22 9/30 10/12 11/16
Eastern Phoebe *** 9/1 9/13 9/25 10/12 10/25
Common Yellowthroat *** 8/30 9/6 9/20 10/12 10/21
Indigo Bunting *** 9/7 9/11 9/20 10/12 10/21
Black-throated Green Warbler * 8/20 9/2 9/22 10/13 10/28
Swainson's Hawk *** - 8/2 9/11 10/14 10/22
Nashville Warbler *** 8/27 9/5 9/22 10/14 10/24
Turkey Vulture *** 8/2 9/4 9/27 10/16 10/25
Clay-colored Sparrow *** 8/20 9/3 9/24 10/16 10/30
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 9/5 9/21 10/4 10/17 10/28
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher *** 9/6 9/16 9/27 10/19 11/1
Great Egret *** - 8/2 9/13 10/20 11/11
Sora * - 8/2 9/27 10/20 11/4
Sedge Wren *** 9/19 9/28 10/9 10/21 10/31
Nelson's Sparrow ** 9/23 9/30 10/10 10/21 10/29
Marsh Wren *** 9/14 9/27 10/9 10/23 11/5
Blue-winged Teal *** 8/2 8/10 9/13 10/24 11/10
Cooper's Hawk ** 8/2 9/5 9/24 10/24 11/8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/7 9/21 10/8 10/24 11/8
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/15 9/26 10/11 10/24 11/15
Sprague's Pipit * 9/19 9/29 10/11 10/25 11/6
Spotted Towhee *** 9/9 9/23 10/9 10/25 11/6
Vesper Sparrow *** 9/7 9/23 10/10 10/27 11/6
Wood Duck ** - 8/2 8/20 10/28 After Nov 30
Sharp-shinned Hawk * 8/31 10/2 10/17 10/28 After Nov 30
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/2 9/7 9/29 10/28 11/25
Le Conte's Sparrow *** 9/25 10/4 10/16 10/28 11/7

West

Favorable migration conditions are scattered across the region, primarily in the Desert Southwest and the Rockies through the weekend and gradually expanding to begin the work week. Light to moderate movements are likely in many areas, with some locally heavy flights particularly in the northern Rockies on Sunday night. By Monday night these conditions are widespread across the region, and widespread light to moderate flights will occur. The days the follow will see a return to less favorable conditions, and migration will decrease in intensity and extent during this period. But Wednesday night sees a disturbance move through the northern portions of the region, with increasingly widespread northerly flow facilitating moderate to locally heavy flights. This will be particularly true in the Rockies as the period comes to an end.

Horned Grebe. Jonathan Riegsecker/Macaulay Library. eBird S39801446.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Canada Goose ** 8/2 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
California Gull * 8/2 10/22 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Ring-billed Gull ** 8/10 11/7 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Northern Harrier ** 8/17 11/8 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Sandhill Crane * 9/14 11/10 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Horned Grebe ** 9/20 10/21 11/8 11/15 11/19
Mew Gull ** 10/1 10/22 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Gadwall *** 10/7 10/25 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Surf Scoter *** 10/7 10/21 11/10 11/15 11/18
Lesser Scaup *** 10/8 10/26 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Canvasback *** 10/9 11/4 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Glaucous-winged Gull ** 10/10 10/23 After Nov 30 - -
Common Loon *** 10/12 10/23 11/4 11/14 11/22
Rough-legged Hawk * 10/12 11/29 After Nov 30 - -
Pacific Loon * 10/14 10/29 11/24 After Nov 30 -
Bufflehead ****! 10/16 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/19 11/2 After Nov 30 - -
Red-breasted Merganser *** 10/20 11/2 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Trumpeter Swan * 10/21 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
Tundra Swan ** 10/25 11/6 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Barrow's Goldeneye ** 10/25 11/8 After Nov 30 - -
Ferruginous Hawk * 10/25 11/6 After Nov 30 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Belted Kingfisher ** - 8/2 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Northern Shoveler *** 8/6 8/20 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Northern Pintail ** 8/12 8/20 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Green-winged Teal ** 8/2 8/20 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Black Phoebe ** 8/16 9/9 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Red-tailed Hawk *** 8/7 9/10 After Nov 30 - -
American Pipit ** 8/31 9/11 11/15 After Nov 30 -
Say's Phoebe ** 9/1 9/13 11/21 After Nov 30 -
Merlin * 8/30 9/14 11/9 11/28 After Nov 30
Eared Grebe *** 9/2 9/16 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Marsh Wren * 8/21 9/20 10/29 After Nov 30 -
Varied Thrush ** 9/18 9/29 After Nov 30 - -
Cackling Goose ** 9/16 10/3 After Nov 30 - -
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/21 10/3 11/5 11/10 11/12
White-throated Sparrow * 9/20 10/3 10/28 11/5 11/10
Golden-crowned Kinglet ** 9/10 10/4 10/23 11/6 11/18
Dark-eyed Junco *** 9/23 10/5 11/8 11/13 11/16
Hermit Thrush *** 9/25 10/6 10/26 11/6 11/15
Herring Gull ** 9/28 10/13 After Nov 30 - -
Redhead * 10/3 10/14 11/14 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck ** 9/21 10/14 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Western Grebe *** 10/3 10/14 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Dunlin ** 10/5 10/15 10/30 After Nov 30 -
American Wigeon *** 9/2 10/17 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Ring-necked Duck *** 9/21 10/17 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Clark's Grebe * 10/8 10/18 11/6 After Nov 30 -
Pied-billed Grebe ** 8/2 10/19 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Bald Eagle ** 9/26 10/19 After Nov 30 - -
Greater Scaup * 10/8 10/20 After Nov 30 - -
White-winged Scoter * 10/11 10/20 11/5 11/15 After Nov 30
Red-necked Grebe * 8/26 10/20 11/3 11/13 11/20
Surf Scoter ** 10/7 10/21 11/10 11/15 11/18
Horned Grebe ** 9/20 10/21 11/8 11/15 11/19
Mew Gull ** 10/1 10/22 11/20 After Nov 30 -
California Gull * 8/2 10/22 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Common Loon ** 10/12 10/23 11/4 11/14 11/22
Glaucous-winged Gull ** 10/10 10/23 After Nov 30 - -
Gadwall ** 10/7 10/25 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Lesser Scaup *** 10/8 10/26 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Greater Yellowlegs * 8/11 8/18 8/28 After Nov 30 -
Elegant Tern * 8/2 8/21 9/7 After Nov 30 -
Pink-footed Shearwater * 8/8 8/27 9/14 10/25 11/7
Blue-winged Teal * - 8/2 9/22 10/23 11/3
Savannah Sparrow ** 8/2 9/3 9/23 10/24 11/2
Black-bellied Plover * 9/12 9/18 9/30 After Nov 30 -
Cooper's Hawk * 8/2 9/7 10/1 10/24 11/11
Townsend's Warbler ** 8/13 8/30 10/2 10/22 11/6
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/17 9/12 10/3 After Nov 30 -
Lincoln's Sparrow ** 8/30 9/11 10/4 10/21 11/5
Red-naped Sapsucker * 9/6 9/19 10/7 10/22 11/3
Red-winged Blackbird ** 8/25 9/12 10/10 10/27 After Nov 30
White-crowned Sparrow *** 9/6 9/21 10/11 10/21 10/31
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/13 9/27 10/14 10/23 11/3
Northern Flicker *** 9/5 9/29 10/16 11/8 11/22
Western Meadowlark * 9/16 9/30 10/16 After Nov 30 -
Sharp-shinned Hawk * 8/23 9/10 10/19 11/11 After Nov 30
Golden-crowned Sparrow * 9/13 9/26 10/19 10/26 11/18
Fox Sparrow * 9/9 9/23 10/20 11/1 11/8
Belted Kingfisher * - 8/2 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Golden-crowned Kinglet * 9/10 10/4 10/23 11/6 11/18
Hermit Thrush * 9/25 10/6 10/26 11/6 11/15
White-throated Sparrow * 9/20 10/3 10/28 11/5 11/10

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Violet-green Swallow *** - - Before Aug 1 8/3 10/23
Hermit Warbler * - 8/2 8/19 9/3 10/23
House Wren *** 8/23 8/31 9/9 9/21 10/26
Sora * 8/21 9/1 9/13 9/23 After Nov 30
Marbled Godwit * 8/9 8/17 8/28 9/29 After Nov 30
American Avocet * 8/15 8/21 8/30 9/30 After Nov 30
Parasitic Jaeger * 8/26 9/6 9/19 10/1 10/29
Black Turnstone * 8/6 8/17 9/21 10/2 After Nov 30
Heermann's Gull * 8/15 9/14 9/21 10/2 After Nov 30
Yellow Warbler *** - 8/2 9/8 10/2 10/21
Killdeer *** 8/2 8/14 9/7 10/3 11/3
Franklin's Gull * - 8/2 8/31 10/3 11/5
Common Yellowthroat *** 8/18 8/30 9/15 10/5 10/27
Pectoral Sandpiper ** 8/16 8/25 9/20 10/9 10/24
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 8/18 9/1 9/18 10/15 10/27
Mountain Bluebird * 9/3 9/8 9/19 10/17 10/27
American Robin * 8/30 9/4 10/10 10/17 11/14
Chipping Sparrow *** - 8/2 9/8 10/18 11/2
Clay-colored Sparrow * 8/17 8/28 9/14 10/18 11/6
Red-breasted Nuthatch *** - 8/2 9/7 10/19 10/30
Black-throated Gray Warbler *** - 8/2 10/4 10/19 10/29
Brewer's Blackbird * 8/23 9/11 9/27 10/20 After Nov 30
Lincoln's Sparrow ** 8/30 9/11 10/4 10/21 11/5
White-crowned Sparrow *** 9/6 9/21 10/11 10/21 10/31
Red-naped Sapsucker * 9/6 9/19 10/7 10/22 11/3
Townsend's Warbler *** 8/13 8/30 10/2 10/22 11/6
Blue-winged Teal * - 8/2 9/22 10/23 11/3
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/13 9/27 10/14 10/23 11/3
Cooper's Hawk ** 8/2 9/7 10/1 10/24 11/11
Savannah Sparrow ** 8/2 9/3 9/23 10/24 11/2
Pink-footed Shearwater * 8/8 8/27 9/14 10/25 11/7
Golden-crowned Sparrow * 9/13 9/26 10/19 10/26 11/18
Red-winged Blackbird ** 8/25 9/12 10/10 10/27 After Nov 30

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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