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Regional Migration Forecast: 3-10 April 2015

Louisiana Waterthrush © Ryan Schain

Louisiana Waterthrush © Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Light to moderate movements featuring Green Heron, Osprey, Rufous Hummingbird, White-throated Swift, and Common Yellowthroat will be the norm from Friday through the middle of the coming work week in the West, as moderate to heavy flights come to many parts of the East and feature Ruddy Duck, Whimbrel, Northern Flicker, Tree Swallow, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Louisiana Waterthrush, and Indigo Bunting.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users to make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A period of changeable conditions arrives in the region, and with the mix of alternating southerly winds, warming temperatures, forecast precipitation, and passing low pressure centers will come some nights of moderate to locally heavy movements as well as the potential for local concentrations of migrants. As these disturbances pass, conditions will fluctuate among favorable before they pass, marginal as they are passing and unfavorable after passage in many areas. In favorable conditions, in particular on Sunday night, widespread moderate movements, some of which will be locally heavy, will occur; however, in less favorable conditions, for example to end the week in the Great Lakes region, movements will be minimal. Birders should watch carefully for the passage of precipitation after birds are already migrating at night, as local concentrations and fallouts are likely in many areas of the East forecast to experience such conditions.

Hermit Thrush © Ian Davies

Hermit Thrush © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Virginia Rail 4/3 4/15 5/7 -
American Bittern 4/4 4/16 5/5 -
Eastern Towhee 4/4 4/16 5/1 -
Purple Finch 4/5 4/14 4/24 5/4
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 4/5 4/17 5/3 5/16
Barn Swallow 4/5 4/19 5/18 -
Broad-winged Hawk 4/7 4/15 4/26 5/5
Prothonotary Warbler 4/9 4/21 5/8 5/22
White-throated Sparrow 4/9 4/18 4/28 5/11
White-eyed Vireo 4/10 4/20 5/4 -
Yellow-rumped Warbler 4/10 4/22 5/3 5/16

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Tree Swallow 3/21 4/3 5/10 -
Vesper Sparrow 3/26 4/3 - -
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 3/26 4/3 4/13 4/23
Belted Kingfisher 3/25 4/4 4/19 -
Laughing Gull 3/24 4/5 - -
Northern Flicker 3/25 4/5 4/20 -
Snowy Egret 3/26 4/5 - -
Louisiana Waterthrush 3/26 4/5 4/30 -
Glossy Ibis 3/29 4/6 - -
Brown-headed Cowbird 3/16 4/8 5/2 -
Hermit Thrush 3/30 4/8 4/21 5/3
Cooper's Hawk 3/16 4/9 4/24 5/13
Greater Yellowlegs 3/23 4/9 4/27 5/16
Purple Martin 3/27 4/9 5/18 -
Field Sparrow 3/28 4/9 4/27 -
Merlin 3/29 4/9 4/24 5/25
Yellow-throated Warbler 3/29 4/9 4/24 5/7
Pine Warbler 3/29 4/9 4/23 -
Caspian Tern 3/30 4/9 4/24 -
Sharp-shinned Hawk 3/24 4/10 4/22 5/9
Little Blue Heron 3/30 4/10 - -

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Northern Shoveler - - 4/3 4/27
Fox Sparrow - 3/2 4/4 4/19
Northern Gannet 3/14 3/24 4/5 4/19
American Coot - - 4/5 5/1
Northern Harrier - - 4/6 4/24
Golden-crowned Kinglet 3/23 3/31 4/9 4/20
Pied-billed Grebe 3/2 3/24 4/10 4/27
Brown Creeper 3/24 4/1 4/10 4/23

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Great Cormorant - - - 4/4
Hooded Merganser - - 3/21 4/6
Greater Scaup - - - 4/7
Herring Gull - - - 4/7
Long-tailed Duck - - - 4/10

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The arrival of a cold front to kick off the weekend brings the potential for fallouts to the western Gulf (particularly circum-Gulf migrants) and moderate to heavy flights farther east of the frontal boundary. The effects of the front are short-lived, as favorable conditions for moderate to heavy flights return by Sunday night (with the exception of Florida). These conditions largely continue, especially in the western Gulf toward which Caribbean easterly flow may push birds, for the duration of the period. Scattered precipitation is also forecast in some areas, shutting down migration when precipitation persist through sunset into the night and concentrating migrants when precipitation begins fall well after sunset. Note, an end of the week frontal boundary arrives just as trans-Gulf flights arrive; birders along the western Gulf Coast should watch for fallouts as migrants meet this frontal boundary.

Prairie Warbler © Ian Davies

Prairie Warbler © Ian Davies

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Sedge Wren 4/3 4/10 4/18 5/1
Whimbrel 4/3 4/12 4/23 5/3
Brown-crested Flycatcher 4/3 4/12 4/24 -
Indigo Bunting 4/3 4/14 4/29 -
Black Tern 4/3 4/14 5/15 -
Sora 4/4 4/12 4/21 5/5
Nashville Warbler 4/4 4/15 4/26 5/9
Bell's Vireo 4/4 4/15 4/30 -
Tennessee Warbler 4/5 4/15 4/28 5/11
Bullock's Oriole 4/5 4/16 5/17 -
Scarlet Tanager 4/6 4/15 4/26 5/6
Black-bellied Plover 4/6 4/14 4/24 5/7
Gray Kingbird 4/6 4/15 4/27 5/7
Stilt Sandpiper 4/6 4/21 5/4 5/21
Semipalmated Plover 4/6 4/15 4/26 5/29
Wood Thrush 4/6 4/15 4/27 -
Blue Grosbeak 4/6 4/15 4/28 -
Yellow-headed Blackbird 4/7 4/15 4/27 5/9
Black-throated Green Warbler 4/7 4/17 4/29 5/12
Western Kingbird 4/7 4/17 5/12 -
Ovenbird 4/8 4/17 4/29 5/10
Common Nighthawk 4/8 4/17 5/18 -
Baltimore Oriole 4/9 4/17 4/28 5/9
Gray Catbird 4/9 4/17 4/27 5/10
Northern Waterthrush 4/9 4/17 4/28 5/11
Swainson's Thrush 4/9 4/20 5/3 5/17
Yellow-breasted Chat 4/9 4/18 5/2 -
Painted Bunting 4/9 4/18 5/2 -
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 4/10 4/17 4/27 5/8
Cape May Warbler 4/10 4/17 4/28 5/9
Spotted Sandpiper 4/10 4/22 5/5 5/20
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 4/10 4/28 5/30 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Cattle Egret 3/19 4/3 - -
Prairie Warbler 3/22 4/3 4/16 4/28
Chimney Swift 3/23 4/3 5/11 -
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 3/16 4/4 4/28 5/14
Swainson's Warbler 3/26 4/5 4/20 -
Franklin's Gull 3/27 4/6 4/20 5/3
Marbled Godwit - 4/6 4/14 4/29
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron 3/2 4/7 6/30 -
Gull-billed Tern 3/14 4/7 4/20 5/1
Short-billed Dowitcher 3/19 4/7 4/20 5/7
Least Tern 3/28 4/7 4/22 -
Merlin - 4/7 4/17 4/30
Green Heron 3/26 4/8 - -
Worm-eating Warbler 3/27 4/8 4/19 4/30
Blue-winged Warbler 3/30 4/8 4/19 5/1
Sandwich Tern 3/14 4/9 4/19 -
Eastern Kingbird 3/26 4/9 5/2 -
Royal Tern - 4/9 4/18 4/30
Laughing Gull 3/2 4/10 4/18 5/2
American Avocet 3/17 4/10 4/20 5/2
Chuck-will's-widow 3/19 4/10 4/25 -
Red-eyed Vireo 3/29 4/10 5/4 -
Orchard Oriole 3/30 4/10 4/28 5/11
Kentucky Warbler 3/31 4/10 4/25 -
Cerulean Warbler 4/2 4/10 4/21 5/1
Sedge Wren 4/3 4/10 4/18 5/1
Marsh Wren - 4/10 4/18 5/2

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Louisiana Waterthrush 3/12 3/20 4/3 -
Blue-winged Teal 3/2 3/16 4/5 5/6
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 3/16 3/26 4/8 -
Blue-headed Vireo - - 4/8 5/15
Yellow-throated Warbler - 3/15 4/10 -
White-throated Sparrow - - 4/10 4/29

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Winter Wren - - 3/1 4/3
Rufous Hummingbird - - - 4/3
Northern Flicker - - 3/9 4/4
Dark-eyed Junco - - - 4/4
Yellow-rumped Warbler - - 3/1 4/5
Northern Gannet - - 3/13 4/5
Vesper Sparrow - - 3/20 4/5
Great Blue Heron - - - 4/5
Bonaparte's Gull - - - 4/6
Bald Eagle - - - 4/7
Hermit Thrush - - 3/23 4/8
Common Loon - - - 4/8
Green-winged Teal - - - 4/9
Wilson's Snipe - - 3/1 4/10

Great Plains

Saturday night begins an active period of moderate to locally heavy movements in the central and southern Plains that spans nearly the entire period. Precipitation is forecast for many nights, and its timing will have drastic implications for migrant exodus, groundings, or concentrations. Saturday through Monday will see the most extensive of these movements across the region, with more extensive and organizing precipitation arriving thereafter to shutdown many movements by late in the week.

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher © Ian Davies

Blue-gray Gnatcatcher © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Upland Sandpiper 4/3 4/19 - -
Osprey 4/4 4/13 4/23 5/4
Black-crowned Night-Heron 4/4 4/20 6/15 -
Broad-winged Hawk 4/5 4/16 5/1 5/15
Lincoln's Sparrow 4/5 4/25 5/4 5/16
Hudsonian Godwit 4/5 4/13 4/23 5/29
Brown Thrasher 4/5 4/25 5/7 -
Yellow-headed Blackbird 4/5 4/13 - -
Prothonotary Warbler 4/6 4/21 5/7 5/21
American Avocet 4/6 4/15 4/27 -
Lark Sparrow 4/6 4/21 5/5 -
Marbled Godwit 4/6 4/15 - -
Grasshopper Sparrow 4/6 5/26 - -
Black-necked Stilt 4/7 4/15 4/26 -
Sora 4/7 4/16 5/16 -
Cassin's Sparrow 4/7 4/30 6/14 -
Cliff Swallow 4/7 4/19 6/17 -
Peregrine Falcon 4/8 4/22 5/4 5/18
Semipalmated Sandpiper 4/8 4/17 5/12 5/29
White-faced Ibis 4/8 4/15 4/27 -
Semipalmated Plover 4/9 4/17 4/29 5/28
Forster's Tern 4/9 4/19 5/6 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Pied-billed Grebe 3/18 4/3 4/17 5/2
White-eyed Vireo 3/19 4/3 5/22 -
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 3/25 4/3 5/6 5/18
Hermit Thrush 3/23 4/5 4/23 5/10
Northern Parula 3/28 4/5 5/6 5/19
Cinnamon Teal 3/2 4/6 4/17 -
Great Egret 3/23 4/6 4/25 -
Purple Martin 3/19 4/7 5/8 -
Bonaparte's Gull 3/26 4/7 4/19 5/2
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 3/27 4/7 4/26 -
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron 3/23 4/8 - -
Swainson's Hawk 3/30 4/8 4/22 -

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Ruddy Duck - 3/18 4/5 5/10
Common Loon 3/15 3/23 4/5 5/1
American Kestrel - - 4/5 4/27
American Golden-Plover 3/4 3/20 4/8 5/28

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Redhead - - 3/14 4/4
Ring-necked Duck - - 3/19 4/4
Bufflehead - 3/8 3/23 4/6
Red-breasted Merganser - - 3/26 4/6
Dark-eyed Junco - - - 4/8
Fox Sparrow - - 3/28 4/9
Northern Pintail - - 3/14 4/10

West

Widespread favorable conditions on Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday nights will spawn the greatest extents of light to moderate movements (with some locally heavy in the Desert Southwest and California) across the region. However, Wednesday’s forecast sees much more localized conditions favorable for migration, primarily limited to the southern Rockies where moderate and locally heavy flights are expected; and by Thursday most of the West experiences primarily unfavorable and marginal conditions with locally light to moderate flights.

Common Yellowthroat © Ian Davies

Common Yellowthroat © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Dusky-capped Flycatcher 4/3 4/15 5/1 -
Green Heron 4/3 4/18 5/13 -
Ash-throated Flycatcher 4/3 4/15 5/3 -
Lesser Yellowlegs 4/4 4/14 4/25 5/9
Brewer's Blackbird 4/4 4/15 5/26 -
Calliope Hummingbird 4/6 4/20 6/16 -
Hammond's Flycatcher 4/6 4/23 5/12 -
White-faced Ibis 4/6 4/15 4/30 5/28
Gray Flycatcher 4/8 4/20 5/5 -
Grasshopper Sparrow 4/9 5/21 6/3 -
Bank Swallow 4/9 4/27 5/18 -
Western Sandpiper 4/9 4/17 4/28 5/10
Dunlin 4/10 4/17 4/26 5/9
Willet 4/10 4/17 4/27 5/9
Least Sandpiper 4/10 4/17 4/27 5/9

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Common Yellowthroat 3/20 4/3 5/20 -
Osprey 3/22 4/3 4/21 -
White-throated Swift 3/1 4/4 5/30 -
Black-chinned Hummingbird 3/15 4/4 5/16 -
American White Pelican 3/23 4/5 5/8 -
Greater Yellowlegs - 4/5 4/15 5/1
Cinnamon Teal 3/2 4/6 4/20 -
Franklin's Gull 3/25 4/6 4/21 5/2
Swainson's Hawk 3/25 4/6 4/25 -
Eared Grebe - 4/7 4/21 5/11
American Avocet 3/25 4/8 4/26 5/19
Black-necked Stilt 3/26 4/8 4/26 5/16
Savannah Sparrow 3/26 4/8 4/24 -
Common Loon 3/31 4/9 4/20 5/3
Blue-winged Teal 3/26 4/10 5/4 5/23
Yellow-headed Blackbird 3/26 4/10 5/16 -

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Northern Shoveler - - 4/7 5/2
White-crowned Sparrow - 3/30 4/9 5/3
Rufous Hummingbird 3/2 3/20 4/10 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Snow Goose - - - 4/4
Varied Thrush - - - 4/4
Hooded Merganser - - - 4/7
Common Goldeneye - - - 4/10
Dark-eyed Junco - - - 4/10

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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