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Regional Migration Forecast: 30 October – 6 November 2015

Screenshot 2015-10-30 11.29.38

Hooded Merganser, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Favorable conditions from the weekend through early week in the West will see light to locally moderate flights of Canada Goose, Common Merganser, Ring-billed Gull, Short-eared Owl, Marsh Wren, and Golden-crowned Sparrow, while a moderate to heavy pulse Friday along the Atlantic coast and along the Canadian border on Wednesday and Thursday nights will feature Snow Goose, Tundra Swan, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, American Pipit, Common Redpoll, and assorted western goodies.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to heavy flights come to many areas east of the Appalachians on Friday night, before most of the region gets rather quiet in the face of an approaching period of warmer air from the southwest. Southwesterly flow is forecast to prevail for much of the week, making conditions for nocturnal migration unfavorable; movements will be mostly light to locally moderate. This southwesterly flow may be the harbinger, however, of later season western vagrants typical in such flow, such as Franklin’s Gull, Cave Swallow, Ash-throated Flycatcher, among other species. Not until the end of the period does the region see favorable conditions for nocturnal flights, and these will be restricted again to coastal reaches primarily from New York north through New England and also in the Mississippi River valley (where another frontal boundary will be passing). Note that some nights during the period may see larger flights if winds aloft are lighter than forecast.

Cave Swallow, Tom Johnson

Cave Swallow, Tom Johnson

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Ash-throated Flycatcher * 30-Oct 10-Nov 25-Nov 11-Dec -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
White-winged Crossbill * 18-Oct 31-Oct 17-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec
Bufflehead *** 18-Oct 1-Nov 21-Nov 4-Dec 13-Dec
Cave Swallow * 21-Oct 2-Nov 17-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec
Red-throated Loon ** 16-Oct 3-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec 15-Dec
Hooded Merganser *** 20-Oct 4-Nov 26-Nov 9-Dec 24-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser *** 18-Oct 5-Nov 28-Nov - -
Tundra Swan ** 25-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec 13-Dec
Harlequin Duck * 24-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Northern Goshawk * 3-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 16-Nov 28-Nov
Northern Pintail * 1-Sep 3-Oct 31-Oct 20-Nov 11-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe *** 12-Sep 10-Oct 31-Oct 22-Nov 11-Dec
Dunlin * 15-Sep 9-Oct 31-Oct 20-Nov 6-Dec
American Wigeon * 9-Sep 5-Oct 1-Nov 23-Nov 19-Dec
Northern Saw-whet Owl * 3-Oct 16-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov 24-Nov
Golden Eagle * 8-Oct 19-Oct 2-Nov 16-Nov 27-Nov
Evening Grosbeak * 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 18-Nov 28-Nov
American Coot *** 26-Sep 14-Oct 6-Nov 26-Nov 20-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Brown Creeper ** 15-Sep 28-Sep 17-Oct 30-Oct 9-Nov
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 16-Sep 28-Sep 14-Oct 30-Oct 11-Nov
Chipping Sparrow *** 18-Sep 27-Sep 9-Oct 30-Oct 13-Nov
Swamp Sparrow *** 16-Sep 28-Sep 14-Oct 30-Oct 12-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow *** 19-Sep 30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct 10-Nov
Wood Duck *** Before July 1 6-Jul 18-Aug 31-Oct 21-Nov
Turkey Vulture *** 16-Aug 5-Sep 28-Sep 31-Oct 25-Nov
Winter Wren ** 14-Sep 28-Sep 17-Oct 31-Oct 12-Nov
Le Conte's Sparrow * 17-Sep 29-Sep 15-Oct 31-Oct 12-Nov
Cooper's Hawk *** 3-Aug 10-Sep 7-Oct 2-Nov 16-Nov
Wilson's Snipe * 6-Aug 1-Oct 16-Oct 2-Nov 19-Nov
Golden-crowned Kinglet *** 18-Sep 30-Sep 18-Oct 2-Nov 15-Nov
White-throated Sparrow *** 16-Sep 29-Sep 19-Oct 2-Nov 13-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark ** 17-Sep 29-Sep 16-Oct 2-Nov 17-Nov
Field Sparrow *** 21-Sep 2-Oct 16-Oct 3-Nov 15-Nov
Hermit Thrush *** 20-Sep 3-Oct 19-Oct 5-Nov 17-Nov
Saltmarsh Sparrow ** 15-Sep 10-Oct 20-Oct 5-Nov 15-Nov

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Mostly unfavorable conditions for migration are forecast across the region for this period. Although local moderate to heavy flights will occur Friday night in the southeastern coastal Plains, Sunday night in Texas, and late in the period back in the southeastern coastal plain, much of the region will experience southerly flow that will not be conducive to much movement at night. Additionally, several areas of precipitation are forecast during the period, further dampening the intensities and extents of any flights.

Ring-necked Duck, Ryan Schain

Ring-necked Duck, Ryan Schain

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Bonaparte's Gull ** 30-Oct 14-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Tundra Swan * 30-Oct 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Bufflehead *** 31-Oct 12-Nov 5-Dec - -
Common Merganser * 4-Nov 1-Dec After Dec 31 - -
Red-breasted Merganser ** 4-Nov 22-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Harris's Sparrow ** 6-Nov 23-Nov 15-Dec - -
Red-throated Loon * 6-Nov 30-Dec After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Cinnamon Teal * 18-Oct 30-Oct 23-Nov - -
Redhead *** 17-Oct 31-Oct 20-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec
Ring-necked Duck *** 15-Oct 1-Nov 8-Dec After Dec 31 -
Snow Goose ** 16-Oct 2-Nov 7-Dec - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Eastern Phoebe *** 22-Sep 11-Oct 31-Oct 12-Nov -
Eastern Meadowlark ** 2-Oct 16-Oct 3-Nov 14-Nov -
American Avocet * 1-Sep 20-Oct 5-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec
Franklin's Gull * 8-Oct 20-Oct 5-Nov 21-Nov 4-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Merlin * 3-Sep 17-Sep 11-Oct 1-Nov 18-Nov
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher *** 6-Sep 20-Sep 5-Oct 1-Nov 19-Nov
Palm Warbler *** 15-Sep 29-Sep 19-Oct 2-Nov 12-Nov
Northern Rough-winged Swallow ** - - 14-Oct 3-Nov 18-Nov

Great Plains

The nights of moderate to heavy flights will be few and far between this period, with such intensities restricted to local movements primarily on Saturday and then again mid week. The first region wide extents of migration will not occur until the very end of the period, when the passage of a strong frontal boundary will set the stage for the fall’s last major and diverse migration event in the region.

Redhead, Ryan Schain

Redhead, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye ****! 1-Nov 13-Nov 3-Dec - -
Common Merganser *** 1-Nov 14-Nov 8-Dec - -
Snowy Owl * 5-Nov 19-Dec After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Hooded Merganser *** 17-Oct 30-Oct 20-Nov 2-Dec 11-Dec
Greater Scaup * 19-Oct 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 10-Dec
Snow Goose *** 18-Oct 1-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec 15-Dec
Common Redpoll * 16-Oct 2-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Ross's Goose ** 19-Oct 2-Nov 23-Nov 7-Dec 19-Dec
Bufflehead *** 20-Oct 3-Nov 19-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec
Bald Eagle *** 16-Oct 5-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Black Scoter * 24-Oct 5-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 15-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser *** 25-Oct 5-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec 13-Dec

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Fox Sparrow *** 2-Oct 14-Oct 30-Oct 12-Nov 24-Nov
Sandhill Crane *** 5-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 15-Nov 25-Nov
Tundra Swan ** 28-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct 18-Nov 30-Nov
Pied-billed Grebe *** 30-Aug 12-Sep 31-Oct 20-Nov 6-Dec
Western Grebe ** 2-Sep 18-Oct 31-Oct 19-Nov 3-Dec
Greater White-fronted Goose ** 6-Oct 18-Oct 3-Nov 15-Nov -
American Wigeon *** 5-Oct 18-Oct 4-Nov 20-Nov 3-Dec
Green-winged Teal *** 7-Oct 19-Oct 4-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec
Northern Pintail *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 19-Nov 1-Dec
Ruddy Duck *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec
Horned Grebe *** 7-Oct 20-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov 9-Dec
Northern Shoveler *** 11-Oct 22-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Savannah Sparrow *** 14-Sep 27-Sep 13-Oct 30-Oct 12-Nov
Chipping Sparrow *** - - 1-Sep 31-Oct 14-Nov
Common Grackle *** 12-Sep 23-Sep 8-Oct 31-Oct 16-Nov
Le Conte's Sparrow *** 21-Sep 1-Oct 17-Oct 1-Nov 12-Nov
Swamp Sparrow *** 18-Sep 30-Sep 17-Oct 2-Nov 13-Nov
Killdeer *** Before July 1 4-Jul 2-Aug 3-Nov 28-Nov
Western Meadowlark *** 11-Sep 21-Sep 8-Oct 3-Nov 19-Nov
White-crowned Sparrow *** 16-Sep 30-Sep 18-Oct 3-Nov 15-Nov
White-throated Sparrow *** 13-Sep 28-Sep 18-Oct 3-Nov 16-Nov
Wilson's Snipe ** 7-Aug 3-Oct 18-Oct 4-Nov 16-Nov
Eastern Meadowlark *** 17-Sep 1-Oct 19-Oct 5-Nov 17-Nov
Field Sparrow *** 18-Sep 30-Sep 18-Oct 6-Nov 17-Nov

West

Favorable conditions become increasingly rare over the first half of the forecast period, as light to locally moderate flights become similarly rare. Most movements will be restricted to the Desert Southwest on the weekend, with a slow period to follow as southerly winds and scattered precipitation spread into the mountainous west. By Tuesday and Wednesday a new area of favorable conditions builds into the region west of the Rockies, where light to locally moderate migration will return. These conditions persist locally in the Desert Southwest and in California to end the period, where localized flights will also persist.

Canada Goose, Ryan Schain

Canada Goose, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye *** 30-Oct 11-Nov 2-Dec - -
Snowy Owl * 4-Nov 16-Nov 8-Dec - -
Glaucous Gull * 6-Nov 1-Dec After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Rough-legged Hawk * 7-Oct 30-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Rusty Blackbird * 16-Oct 30-Oct 18-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec
Ferruginous Hawk * 2-Oct 31-Oct After Dec 31 - -
Common Merganser * 1-Oct 1-Nov 15-Dec - -
Canada Goose *** 1-Oct 1-Nov 25-Nov - -
Pacific Loon * 18-Oct 1-Nov 17-Nov - -
Red-breasted Merganser ** 17-Oct 1-Nov 21-Nov - -
Ring-billed Gull *** Before July 1 2-Nov 22-Nov 5-Dec -
Hooded Merganser *** 18-Oct 2-Nov 26-Nov 6-Dec 14-Dec
Tundra Swan ** 21-Oct 3-Nov 22-Nov - -
Short-eared Owl * 20-Oct 5-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Brant * 23-Oct 6-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Trumpeter Swan * 24-Oct 6-Nov 25-Nov - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Marsh Wren * 19-Aug 27-Sep 30-Oct 21-Nov -
Western Grebe *** 15-Sep 14-Oct 5-Nov 24-Nov 9-Dec
Clark's Grebe * 7-Oct 20-Oct 6-Nov 23-Nov -
Red-necked Grebe * 26-Aug 20-Oct 6-Nov 22-Nov -
Dunlin * 22-Sep 11-Oct 6-Nov 24-Nov 8-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Golden-crowned Sparrow ** 12-Sep 27-Sep 21-Oct 30-Oct 7-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird ** 24-Aug 11-Sep 10-Oct 31-Oct 21-Nov
Cooper's Hawk * 1-Aug 7-Sep 1-Oct 2-Nov 19-Nov
Northern Flicker *** 6-Sep 27-Sep 20-Oct 5-Nov 20-Nov
Red-throated Pipit * 19-Sep 2-Oct 19-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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