Forecasts

Regional Migration Forecast: 28 April – 5 May 2017

Conditions are mostly marginal for scattered light to moderate flights of Long-billed Dowitcher, Wilson’s Phalarope, Western Wood-Pewee, Swainson’s Thrush, Yellow Warbler, Western Tanager, and Bullock’s Oriole after a strong frontal passage in the West, while the first half of the period in the East see many areas with favorable conditions for moderate to very heavy flights featuring Short-billed Dowitcher, Black Tern, Common Nighthawk, Willow Flycatcher, Least Flycatcher, American Redstart, and Wilson’s Warbler. Conditions for trans-Gulf migration will be generally favorable during the period, with the potential for late weekend and early work week fallouts and concentrations in the Gulf Coast states as frontal passages with precipitation are forecast.


Regional Migration Forecast, western and central Gulf Coast Update: 26 April 2017

Team BirdCast has been watching the trans- and circum-Gulf movements unfold in the last days. Today’s movement is an exciting one, featuring the arrival of large numbers of migrants and another frontal boundary.


Regional Migration Update, Gulf Coast and Southeast: 22-24 April 2017

Last week, Team BirdCast highlighted at potentially complex scenario for inbound Neotropical migrants in the Gulf of Mexico. Let’s get a brief update to see what happened.


Arrival Highlights – 24 April 2017

We’ve created a new tool to update us as species advance through their arrivals in each region, using data from eBird. We assign each species to four possible categories: Not Yet Arrived, Arrival Beginning, Approaching Peak, or Peaking. Then, we look for transitions between categories to tell us how each species is progressing through these […]


Updates from our friends in the field: Emily Cohen at Clive Runnels Mad Island Marsh Preserve

This week, Team BirdCast highlights a friend in the field. Today, it is Dr. Emily Cohen, a research associate at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute.


Regional Migration Forecast 21-28 April 2017

The West will see light to moderate flights, particularly in the Desert Southwest late in the weekend and late in the work week, featuring Spotted Sandpiper, Long-billed Dowitcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Townsend’s Warbler, MacGillivray’s Warbler, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Western Tanager, while a pulse of highly favorable migration period late in the period in the East will bring moderate to very heavy flights featuring Red-headed Woodpecker, Acadian Flycatcher, Least Flycatcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Chestnut-sided Warbler, Bay-breasted Warbler, Northern Parula, and Mourning Warbler. Early period brings a dynamic and complex atmosphere will potential for Gulf Coast concentrations, where late period brings a major incursion of Neotropical migrants across and around the Gulf of Mexico, as favorable flight conditions arrive in Mexico and northern Central America at the peak of the season.


Regional Migration Analysis: 14-21 April 2017

Moderate movements featuring Semipalmated Plover, Caspian Tern, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Nashville Warbler, and Western Tanager were the norm for California and the Desert Southwest, while moderate to locally heavy flights graced portions of the East and featured Spotted Sandpiper, Great Crested Flycatcher, Red-eyed Vireo, Wood Thrush, Blackpoll Warbler, Baltimore Oriole, and Dickcissel.


BirdCast World Edition: Barn Swallow in southeast Asia

Here comes the BirdCast World Edition again! Here, we highlight a species with an extensive global distribution and focus on populations that winter in and migrate through southeast Asia: Barn Swallow!


Arrival Highlights – 17 April 2017

We’ve created a new tool to update us as species advance through their arrivals in each region, using data from eBird. We assign each species to four possible categories: Not Yet Arrived, Arrival Beginning, Approaching Peak, or Peaking. Then, we look for transitions between categories to tell us how each species is progressing through these […]


BirdCast Europe Edition: Migration Progress, 14 April 2017

Team BirdCast is including a World Edition to bring a more diverse array of forecasts and analyses for this season. In this week’s post, we briefly feature four species: Common Cuckoo, Barn Swallow, Eurasian Blackcap, and European Robin.


Regional Migration Forecast: 14-21 April 2017

Scattered favorable conditions primary in the middle of the forecast period will see light to moderate flights of Green Heron, Western Sandpiper, Red-necked Phalarope, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Hammond’s Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, and Townsend’s Warbler for the West, while widespread favorable migration bring moderate to heavy flights in many areas of the East and will feature Sora, Least Sandpiper, Semipalmated Sandpiper, Common Nighthawk, Blue-headed Vireo, Kentucky Warbler, Summer Tanager, and Painted Bunting. Continued unfavorable conditions in many areas of northern Central America will slow the typical seasonal pulses of trans-Gulf migration.


Regional Migration Analysis: 7-14 April 2017

The past week in the West saw light to moderate flights primarily in the southern portion of the region featuring Swainson’s Hawk, Vaux’s Swift, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Cassin’s Vireo, Nashville Warbler, Grace’s Warbler, and Lazuli Bunting, while moderate and locally heavy flights came to many areas of the East and featured Marbled Godwit, Hudsonian Godwit, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush, House Wren, Northern Parula, Tennessee Warbler, and Rose-breasted Grosbeak.


Arrival Highlights – 8 April 2017

We’ve created a new tool to update us as species advance through their arrivals in each region. We assign each species to four possible categories, and we look for transitions between categories to tell us how each species is progressing through these stages. Most of the action is happening in the southeast, as we expect for this time of year. But this will not be true for long!


Regional Migration Forecast: 7-14 April 2017

Continental Summary Widespread light to moderate movements that feature Forster’s Tern, Vaux’s Swift, Bank Swallow, Wilson’s Warbler, Hermit Warbler, and Lazuli Bunting come to the West to begin and end the period, while the East experiences a series of moderate to heavy flights of Broad-winged Hawk, Sora, Semipalmated Plover, Semipalmated Sandpiper, Wilson’s Phalarope, Eastern Wood-Pewee, White-eyed Vireo, and […]


Swifts back on track? – 2 Apr 2017

On our 28 March arrival update, we highlighted the late arrival of Chimney Swifts into the US this spring. In the last several days, we’ve seen a big increase in eBird reports of swifts, and the 10-day delay we wrote about earlier seems to have evaporated!


Regional Migration Forecast: 31 March – 7 April 2017

Mostly unfavorable conditions for migration dominate in the West, restricting light to moderate flights of Green Heron, Black-bellied Plover, Ash-throated Flycatcher, American Pipit, Yellow-rumped Warbler, and Golden-crowned Sparrow to late in the period or local distributions, while mid and late period southerly flow will bring an influx of Caspian Tern, Forster’s Tern, Barn Swallow, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Prothonotary Warbler, Worm-eating Warbler, Palm Warbler, Summer Tanager, Lark Sparrow, Indigo Bunting, and Blue Grosbeak in moderate to locally heavy movements. Fallout potential on the Gulf Coast arrives on Monday and Tuesday in mid to eastern Gulf states and again on Thursday and Friday with the passage of significant frontal boundaries.


BirdCast World Edition: United Kingdom

Team BirdCast plans to include a more diverse array of forecasts and analyses for this season. You may have already seen some of the new graphics that we started to employ earlier in March. Now, we present another new feature: BirdCast World Edition.


Regional Migration Analysis: 24-31 March 2017

Scattered among the West’s areas of persistent precipitation during were light to moderate flights featuring Turkey Vulture, Greater Yellowlegs, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Hooded Oriole, while pulses of similarly intense flights featuring Great Egret, Eastern Kingbird, Barn Swallow, Brown Thrasher, Prothonotary Warbler, and Louisiana Waterthrush occurred in advance of multiple frontal passages in the East.


Arrival Highlights – 28 March 2017

The last several days have seen significant movements of birds in the US. Here are the highlights: On March 20th, we predicted a big influx of Scissor-tailed Flycatchers: Scissor-tailed Flycatchers are poised for a big entrance in the next week #GulfCoast #migration pic.twitter.com/jfLfnIsQMs — BirdCast–Cornell Lab (@DrBirdCast) March 20, 2017 We can now report that […]


Arrival Highlights – 25 March 2017

Species currently on the move in the United States include: Louisiana Waterthrush Great Egret Ruby-throated Hummingbird Osprey Red-eyed Vireo Hooded Warbler Prothonotary Warbler


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