Forecasts

Regional Migration Forecast: 18-25 November 2016

A general quiet late season period in the West will see scattered light flights in the middle of the work week that feature Northern Shoveler, Northern Pintail, Tundra Swan, Northern Harrier, Sandhill Crane, Mew Gull, and Say’s Phoebe, while two strong frontal passages will bring light to moderate late season flights of Canada Goose, Tundra Swan, Bufflehead, Long-tailed Duck, Red-throated Loon, American Pipit, White-throated Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco to the East.


Regional Migration Forecast: 11-18 November 2016

Scattered light movements will be the norm for this late season period with higher intensities and extents to end the week that will feature Tundra Swan, Green-winged Teal, Gadwall, Lesser Scaup, Pied-billed Grebe, Eared Grebe, Say’s Phoebe, and American Pipit, while the East sees a significant early and late period push of moderate to locally heavy movements featuring Redhead, Lesser Scaup, Common Loon, Horned Grebe, Bonaparte’s Gull, Hermit Thrush, and Field Sparrow.


Regional Migration Analysis: 4-11 November 2016

Movements in the West were local and light, primarily along the Pacific Coast, featuring Tundra Swan, Common Goldeneye, Bufflehead, Bonaparte’s Gull, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Bohemian Waxwing, and Purple Finch, while in the East pulses of sub-regional movements were moderate to locally heavy and featured Greater Scaup, Bufflehead, Hooded Merganser, Red-throated Loon, Horned Grebe, American Robin, American Tree Sparrow, Pine Siskin, and Purple Finch.


Regional Migration Forecast: 4-11 November 2016

The West will experience some conditions favorable for locally light to moderate flights during the middle and latter parts of the period that will feature White-winged Scoter, Surf Scoter, Common Loon, Clark’s Grebe, California Gull, Merlin, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, and Dark-eyed Junco, while the East will experience several pulses of such favorable conditions with light to locally heavy movements that features Greater White-fronted Goose, Green-winged Teal, Ring-necked Duck, Canvasback, Red-necked Grebe, Ring-billed Gull, Caspian Tern, Red-winged Blackbird, Fox Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco.


Regional Migration Analysis: 28 October – 4 November 2016

A quiet week in the West for migration saw a few, mostly coastal pulses of light to moderate movements featuring Tundra Swan, Red Phalarope, Bonaparte’s Gull, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, American Pipit, Cedar Waxwing, and Dark-eyed Junco, while moderate to locally heavy flights associated with frontal passages featured Northern Pintail, Common Goldeneye, Long-tailed Duck, Long-billed Curlew, Northern Shrike, Sedge Wren, and American Tree Sparrow in the East.


Regional Migration Forecast: 28 October – 4 November 2016

Scattered and local light to moderate flights begin and end the period in the West and feature White-winged Scoter, Common Loon, Western Grebe, Red-necked Grebe, Dunlin, Marsh Wren, and White-throated Sparrow, moderate to heavy flights begin and end the period in the East and feature American Wigeon, Surf Scoter, Pied-billed Grebe, Northern Harrier, Sandhill Crane, Dunlin, Sedge Wren, Lincoln’s Sparrow, and Pine Siskin.


Regional Migration Analysis: 14-21 October 2016

Scattered light to moderate flights were the later period highlights in the West, while moderate to very heavy flights graced the later period in the East.


Regional Migration Forecast: 21-28 October 2016

Favorable migration conditions in the West will be localized and mostly occur at the end of the forecast period, when light to moderate movements, mostly in the northern reaches of the region, will feature Green-winged Teal, Northern Pintail, American Wigeon, Ring-necked Duck, Lesser Scaup, Eared Grebe, Western Grebe, Red-tailed Hawk, Hermit Thrush, Varied Thrush and American Pipit; meanwhile, the East will see a major frontal passage and arrival of cooler air that will usher moderate to very heavy movements to the region that feature Ruddy Duck, Common Loon, Double-crested Cormorant, Northern Harrier, Sandhill Crane, Belted Kingfisher, American Kestrel, House Wren, Fox Sparrow, Dark-eyed Junco, Pine Siskin, and Purple Finch.


Regional Migration Forecast: 14-21 October 2016

Favorable migration conditions do not arrive in the West until mid period, bringing light to moderate flights of Redhead, Ruddy Duck, Red-tailed Hawk, Northern Flicker, Hermit Thrush, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Western Meadowlark, Fox Sparrow, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco, while a warming trend in the East yields to more typical fall conditions featuring moderate to heavy movements of Pied-billed Grebe, Franklin’s Gull, Northern Flicker, American Kestrel, Eastern Bluebird, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Red-winged Blackbird, White-throated Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco.


Regional Migration Analysis: 7-14 October 2016

Locally light and moderate flights featuring Cackling Goose, Common Loon, Pacific Loon, White-winged Scoter, Ferruginous Hawk, Dunlin, Merlin, White-throated Sparrow, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Fox Sparrow punctuated the migration scene in the West during this period, while an early and late pulse of moderate and heavy movements featuring Pied-billed Grebe, Black Vulture, Northern Harrier, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, American Pipit, Marsh Wren, Orange-crowned Warbler, White-crowned Sparrow, Nelson’s Sparrow, Le Conte’s Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco graced the East.


Regional Migration Forecast: 30 September – 8 October 2016

Favorable conditions for migration come to the West from Sunday to Thursday bringing light to moderate flights of Eared Grebe, Cooper’s Hawk, Red-tailed Hawk, Say’s Phoebe, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Western Meadowlark, Golden-crowned Sparrow, White-crowned Sparrow, and Fox Sparrow, while a patchwork of favorable and unfavorable conditions for migration including the arrival of a tropical system bring similarly patchy moderate to heavy movements featuring Pied-billed Grebe, Franklin’s Gull, Northern Flicker, Eastern Phoebe, Gray Catbird, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Nashville Warbler, and Lincoln’s Sparrow to the East.


Regional Migration Analysis: 23-30 September 2016

Widespread light to moderate movements dominated the first half of the forecast period in the West and featured Cackling Goose, Greater White-fronted Goose, Dunlin, Varied Thrush, Hermit Thrush, American Pipit, Yellow-rumped Warbler and Palm Warbler, Golden-crowned Sparrow, while pulses of moderate to very heavy flights graced the East and featured Pied-billed Grebe, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Sprague’s Pipit, Orange-crowned Warbler, Rusty Blackbird, Brewer’s Blackbird, White-throated Sparrow, White-crowned Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco.


Migration Event, 26-27 September 2016: Mortality at and near the Sewanee Memorial War Cross

Team BirdCast would like to highlight one of the more unfortunate aspects of the study of nocturnal bird migration. Bird mortality at and near areas of strong artificial illumination has been well documented at numerous locations around the world with the spread of electricity and associated technologies since the mid to late 19th century. We call your attention to […]


Regional Migration Forecast: 23-30 September 2016

Favorable conditions for widespread light to moderate migration featuring Greater White-fronted Goose, Northern Shoveler, Eared Grebe, Red-tailed Hawk, Townsend’s Warbler, Yellow-rumped Warbler, and White-crowned Sparrow come to the West during the first half of the forecast period, while the East experiences several bouts of favorable migration conditions with moderate to locally very heavy flights of Pied-billed Grebe, Turkey Vulture, Franklin’s Gull, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Gray Catbird, Ovenbird, Tennessee Warbler, Yellow-rumped Warbler, and White-throated Sparrow.


Regional Migration Analysis: 16-23 September 2016

Moderate to heavy movements were the norm for the East this period, featuring Sharp-shinned Hawk, Merlin, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Swainson’s Thrush, Ruby-crownd Kinglet, Rusty Blackbird, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Harris’s Sparrow, and Nelson’s Sparrow, while the West experienced moderate movements primarily early in the forecast period that featured Cackling Goose, Greater White-fronted Goose, Hooded Merganser, Dunlin, Herring Gull, Varied Thrush, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Yellow-rumped Warbler, and Golden-crowned Sparrow.


Regional Migration Forecast: 16-23 September 2016

Marginal and locally favorable migration conditions early in the period eventually yield to slightly more widespread favorable migration conditions, featuring Northern Shoveler, Eared Grebe, Belted Kingfisher, Orange-crowned Warbler, Townsend’s Warbler, Savannah Sparrow, and White-crowned Sparrow in the West and Bald Eagle, Chimney Swift, Northern Flicker, Merlin, Blue-headed Vireo, White-eyed Vireo, Magnolia Warbler, Pine Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, and Wilson’s Warbler in the East.


Regional Migration Analysis: 9-16 September 2016

Moderate and even locally heavy flights featuring Sandhill Crane, Dunlin, Merlin, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, American Pipit, White-crowned Sparrow, and Golden-crowned Sparrow punctuated this period in the West, while moderate to heavy flights of Broad-winged Hawk, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Gray-cheeked Thrush, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Magnolia Warbler, Hooded Warbler, Palm Warbler, Lincoln’s Sparrow, and Purple Finch occurred in the East following the passage of a significant cold front.


Local Migration Analysis: September 11, 2016 Tribute in Light Monitoring, New York, NY

For those in the greater New York City metropolitan area, September 11th 2016 brought the return of the Tribute in Light Memorial. The powerful, side-by-side beams of light aimed skyward were, first and foremost, a somber tribute to lives lost on September 11th 2001; but, as in past years, the event also provide a rare opportunity to witness, […]


Regional Migration Forecast: 9-16 September 2016

Favorable conditions for moderate movements featuring Northern Shoveler, Eared Grebe, Belted Kingfisher, Warbling Vireo, Orange-crowned Warbler, Townsend’s Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, and Savannah Sparrow highlight the beginning and end of the work week in the West, while the East experiences two pulses of moderate to heavy flights over the weekend and in the middle of the work week featuring Blue-winged Teal, Northern Flicker, Eastern Wood-Pewee, White-eyed Vireo, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, American Redstart, and Chestnut-sided Warbler.


Regional Migration Analysis: 2-9 September 2016

Moderate to heavy flights were peppered across the nation and featured Sharp-shinned Hawk, Veery, Swainson’s Thrush, Northern Parula, Orange-crowned Warbler, Mourning Warbler, Fox Sparrow, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco during this past forecast period, with more widespread and regional movements generally limited by a few extreme weather events in the Desert Southwest and the Atlantic Seaboard.


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