Forecasts

Regional Migration Forecast: 29 April – 6 May 2016

Favorable migration conditions in the latter half of the period for the West will bring extensive light to moderate movements of Spotted Sandpiper, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Dusky Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, MacGillivray’ Warbler, Lark Bunting, Clay-colored Sparrow, and Chipping Sparrow, while a highly variable period for weather in the East will bring similarly variable and patchily distributed moderate to heavy movements featuring Least Sandpiper, Forster’s Tern, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Least Flycatcher, Acadian Flycatcher, Wood Thrush, Swainson’s Thrush, Golden-winged Warbler, Nashville Warbler, Cape May Warbler, Blackburnian Warbler, and Baltimore Oriole.


Regional Migration Analysis: 22-29 April 2016

Light to moderate flights, primarily in the Desert Southwest and the eastern Rockies, were the highlights of the week in the West and featured Wilson’s Phalarope, Vaux’s Swift, Western Wood-Pewee, Hammond’s Flycatcher, Brown-crested Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Yellow Warbler, Hermit Warbler, Summer Tanager, Western Tanager, and Lark Sparrow, while moderate to heavy flights featuring Mississippi Kite, Willet, Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Western Kingbird, Gray Catbird, Bay-breasted Warbler, Black-throated Blue Warbler, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Blue Grosbeak, Dickcissel, and Baltimore Oriole were extensive in many areas of the East.


And now for something a bit different: selected anomalous distributions brought to you by the BirdCast Anomaly Detector

Team BirdCast has been experimenting with ways to detect changes in bird distributions as they are occurring. With the help of two talented Cornell undergraduates, Alex Wiebe and Benjamin Van Doren, who are leading the charge, we introduce the BirdCast Anomaly Detector. To detect unusual events–such as the beginnings of a Snowy Owl invasion, or […]


Regional Migration Forecast: 22-29 April 2016

The most favorable migration conditions in the West bring light to moderate movements of Vaux’s Swift, Broad-tailed Hummingbird, Western Kingbird, Bank Swallow, Virginia’s Warbler, Hermit Warbler, Lazuli Bunting, and Lark Sparrow during the work work, while the East experiences moderate to heavy flights featuring Forster’s Tern, Solitary Sandpiper, Least Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Blue-headed Vireo, Kentucky Warbler, Chestnut-sided Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, American Redstart during a wave of favorable and unfavorable migration conditions associated with the movements of a strong frontal boundary.


Regional Migration Analysis: 15-22 April 2016

Light and moderate flights featuring White-faced Ibis, Semipalmated Plover, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Red-faced Warbler, and Western Tanager were frequent in many areas of the West, while the East saw moderate and locally heavy flights featuring Spotted Sandpiper, Chimney Swift, Warbling Vireo, Red-eyed Vireo, Blackpoll Warbler, Cape May Warbler, and Prairie Warbler in the southerly flow ahead of a frontal boundary.


Regional Migration Forecast: 15-22 April 2016

Increasingly favorable conditions for light to moderate movements will build across the West for the work week, featuring Green Heron, Marbled Godwit, Short-billed Dowitcher, Cassin’s Vireo, Barn Swallow, Gray Flycatcher, and Summer Tanager, while the East experiences moderate to heavy flights of Broad-winged Hawk, Sora, Semipalmated Plover, American Avocet, Barn Swallow, Wood Thrush, Black-and-white Warbler, Prothonotary Warbler, Scarlet Tanager, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Baltimore Oriole, and Lark Sparrow in the Plains for the first half of the period and similarly intense movements farther east later in the period.


Regional Migration Analysis: 8-15 April 2016

Scattered moderate movements featuring Swainson’s Hawk, Vaux’s Swift, Bank Swallow, Yellow-breasted Chat, Summer Tanager, and Western Tanager were the migration highlights for the period in the West, while moderate to locally heavy movements associated with the passage of a strong frontal boundary through the East featured Green Heron, Broad-winged Hawk, Sora, Common Nighthawk, Warbling Vireo, House Wren, Palm Warbler, and Baltimore Oriole.


Regional Migration Forecast: 8-15 April 2016

Warming conditions, occasionally punctuated with scattered precipitation, will generally see light to moderate flights across the West, particularly during the second half of the period, while a cold and quiet start to the weekend in the East will change markedly to begin (and end) the work week with moderate to locally heavy flights.


Regional Migration Analysis: 1-8 April 2016

Moderate movements including White-faced Ibis, Swainson’s Hawk, Nashville Warbler, MacGillivray’s Warbler, Lazuli Bunting, and Black-headed Grosbeak highlighted the period in the West, particularly along the Pacific Coast and in the Desert Southwest, while moderate to locally heavy movements featuring Spotted Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Chimney Swift, Red-eyed Vireo, Cliff Swallow, Northern Parula, and Blue Grosbeak graced the southern reaches of the East.


Regional Migration Forecast: 1-8 April 2016

Favorable conditions this weekend and later in the workweek will bring light to moderate movements including Green Heron, Caspian Tern, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Nashville Warbler, and Brewer’s Blackbird through the West, while cooler weather following two strong frontal passages will contrast starkly with the period’s favorable conditions and their moderate to heavy flights of Snowy Egret, American Bittern, Broad-winged Hawk, Virginia Rail, Upland Sandpiper, Whimbrel, Cliff Swallow, Ovenbird, Black-throated Green Warbler, Palm Warbler, Blue Grosbeak, and Indigo Bunting in the East.


Regional Migration Analysis: 25 March – 1 April 2016

The light to moderate movements featuring Common Loon, Double-crested Cormorant, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Wilson’s Warbler, and Black-headed Grosbeak along the Pacific Coast and in the Desert Southwest highlighted the period’s migration in the West, while the East featured American White Pelican, Osprey, Least Sandpiper, Solitary Sandpiper, Chimney Swift, Northern Flicker, Eastern Kingbird, Barn Swallow, Chipping Sparrow scattered light to moderate flights, most consistent in the Gulf states.


Regional Migration Forecast: 25 March – 1 April 2016

Light to moderate migration reach its greatest extents in the West as favorable conditions arrive primarily from Sunday through Wednesday, while the East will experience two waves of moderate and locally heavy flights late in the weekend and in the middle of the work week.


Regional Migration Analysis: 19-25 March 2016

Light to moderate flights along the Pacific Coast and in portions of the Desert Southwest highlighted the period in the West, while light to moderate flights reached their greatest extents on Tuesday night in the East.


Regional Migration Forecast: 18-25 March 2016

An active weather week will be in store for the West and the East, the former experiencing a pulse of favorable conditions early with light to moderate flights followed by largely unfavorable conditions and the latter exhibiting nearly the opposite pattern. Flights in the east, when favorable conditions are present, will be moderate to locally heavy. Note also that two strong low pressure systems are forecast to move through the central and eastern portions of the US, creating concentration and fallout potential when and where they pass.


Regional Migration Analysis: 11-18 March 2016

Although early week rain kept most migrants in the West grounded, more favorable midweek conditions spawned light and moderate flights in California and the Desert Southwest; meanwhile, most of the period saw the East experience a dynamic weather scene in which light and moderate flights alternated with precipitation and strong storms.


Regional Migration Forecast 11-18 March 2016

The West sees a mixed bag of conditions including favorable southerly flow that will carry light to moderate movements this weekend and late in the work week as well as unfavorable (for birds at least!) precipitation that shuts down migration, while an active week in the East will see moderate flights, most widespread early in the work week and punctuated by periods of precipitation that shut down migration.


Regional Migration Analysis: 4-11 March 2016

Conditions in the West were more unfavorable than favorable this week, with only light movements early in the weekend and late in the work week, while localized light to moderate movements in the Great Plains and Texas and parts of the southeast were there highlights of migration in the East.


Regional Migration Forecast: 4-11 March 2016

Early migrants will be on the move in the West and the East. Favorable conditions this weekend and at the end of the coming week will see light to moderate movements scattered across the West, while a pulse of unseasonably warm air will inspire widespread light to moderate flights over the weekend in the Great Plains and for the first half of the work week in much of the East. Read on to find out what species will be on the move in your region!


Migration story: mid-latitude cyclones, Plains temperature anomalies, Edmund Fitzgerald, and Franklin’s Gulls, Part 2

We posted previously on the exceptional movements of Franklin’s Gulls and Cave Swallows that occurred around 13 November 2015. The first post set the stage for how these species appeared so far out of range, and we follow with this post about some rumination about why this event took place. Here, we consider the combined effects […]


Migration story: mid-latitude cyclones, Plains temperature anomalies, Edmund Fitzgerald, and Franklin’s Gulls

November 13 saw an epic Franklin’s Gull and Cave Swallow flight to the East Coast of the United States, the likes of which have not been previously recorded. Here, we describe in the first of a three part series how and why this unprecedented event occurred.


Toggle Grid