Forecasts

Looking ahead

Next Friday, BirdCast begins its official Fall 2017 season of weekly migration forecast and analysis reports. Additionally, we will soon be introducing a few new members of Team BirdCast, some new visualizations, and of course discussions of any interesting patterns we see (or hear). Stay tuned!


Species Highlight: Dickcissel in the Northeastern US

In June 2017 numerous observers around the Northeastern US commented that Dickcissels were more obvious, and in greater numbers, than years in recent memory. Team BirdCast take a quick look at this pattern and how it changed (or not!) over the weeks that followed.


Arriving soon . . . BirdCast Fall 2017

BirdCast will soon return for Fall 2017! Favorable migration conditions for light to moderate flights become more widespread across the West, while the East sees a mix of marginal and locally favorable migration conditions with local light and moderate movements punctuate an otherwise summery pattern. Please check back in the coming week for the first official forecast and analysis posts!


Regional Migration Forecast: 26 May – 2 June 2017

Late season light to moderate flights will occur in widely scattered locations during the forecast period and feature Common Nighthawk, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Eastern Kingbird, Cedar Waxwing, and Brewer’s Sparrow, while the most widespread favorable conditions for moderate to locally heavy flights featuring Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Acadian Flycatcher, Blue Grosbeak, Dickcissel, Grasshopper Sparrow, and Henslow’s Sparrow in the East come during the weekend and end of the period.


Regional Migration Forecast: 19-26 May 2017

Light to moderate flights becomes increasingly likely in the West and will feature White-throated Swift, Willow Flycatcher, Western Wood-Pewee, Eastern Kingbird, Swainson’s Thrush, MacGillivray’s Warbler, and Western Tanager, as spring migration winds down, while scattered moderate to heavy flights featuring Black Tern, Common Nighthawk, Chimney Swift, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Acadian Flycatcher, Philadelphia Vireo, Cedar Waxwing, and Mourning Warbler will punctuate the migration scene in the East amidst unsettled conditions.


Regional Migration Analysis: 5-19 May 2017

BirdCast regional analyses return after our global big day absence! Widespread light and moderate to locally heavy flights characterized the first days of this long forecast period in the West and featured Willow Flycatcher, Dusky Flycatcher, Western Wood-Pewee, Swainson’s Thrush, MacGillivray’s Warbler, Yellow Warbler, and Black-headed Grosbeak, while moderate to very heavy flights occurred in the latter two thirds of the two-week period in the East, first in the Plains and then farther to the coasts, featuring Alder Flycatcher, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Philadelphia Vireo, Bay-breasted Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Canada Warbler, and Wilson’s Warbler.


BirdCast Break and Global Big Day

Team BirdCast is taking a break from forecasting this week to focus on the Global Big Day on May 13. We’ll be back next week!


Regional Migration Forecast: 5-12 May 2017

Favorable migration conditions early in the period bring light moderate flights to many areas of the West away from the Pacific Coast that will feature Dusky Flycatcher, Cedar Waxwing, Yellow-breasted Chat, Bullock’s Oriole, Chipping Sparrow, while the East will see locally moderate to very heavy flights featuring Short-billed Dowitcher, Black Tern, Red-headed Woodpecker, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Eastern Kingbird, Swainson’s Thrush, Canada Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, and Orchard Oriole in mostly marginal migration conditions that in many areas will hinder or inhibit migration. The second half of the period will see the best chance for more trans-Gulf migration as well as another opportunity for fallouts and concentrations with a passing frontal boundary.


Regional Migration Analysis: 28 April – 5 May 2017

Moderate flights occurred in many areas of the West and featured Spotted Sandpiper, Wilson’s Phalarope, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Western Tanager, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Evening Grosbeak, while in the East moderate and heavy flights punctuated by intense low pressure systems featured Mississippi Kite, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Bell’s Vireo, Bay-breasted Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Canada Warbler, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Bobolink, and Dickcissel.


Regional Migration Forecast: World Series of Birding and Atlantic Coast, 4 May evening update

Team BirdCast is looking closely at the current frontal boundary pushing across the southeastern US and pondering what it might mean for those competing in the World Series of Birding 2017, among other birding events presumably scheduled in the coming days.


Regional Migration Update, Gulf Coast and Southeast: 3 May 2017

Team BirdCast is highlighting an area where fallouts and concentrations may occur over the course of the day. An areas of significant storms and precipitation is moving slowly north and east over the western Gulf Coast, impacting Louisiana and nearshore off the immediate coast.


Regional Migration Forecast: 28 April – 5 May 2017

Conditions are mostly marginal for scattered light to moderate flights of Long-billed Dowitcher, Wilson’s Phalarope, Western Wood-Pewee, Swainson’s Thrush, Yellow Warbler, Western Tanager, and Bullock’s Oriole after a strong frontal passage in the West, while the first half of the period in the East see many areas with favorable conditions for moderate to very heavy flights featuring Short-billed Dowitcher, Black Tern, Common Nighthawk, Willow Flycatcher, Least Flycatcher, American Redstart, and Wilson’s Warbler. Conditions for trans-Gulf migration will be generally favorable during the period, with the potential for late weekend and early work week fallouts and concentrations in the Gulf Coast states as frontal passages with precipitation are forecast.


Regional Migration Forecast, western and central Gulf Coast Update: 26 April 2017

Team BirdCast has been watching the trans- and circum-Gulf movements unfold in the last days. Today’s movement is an exciting one, featuring the arrival of large numbers of migrants and another frontal boundary.


Regional Migration Update, Gulf Coast and Southeast: 22-24 April 2017

Last week, Team BirdCast highlighted at potentially complex scenario for inbound Neotropical migrants in the Gulf of Mexico. Let’s get a brief update to see what happened.


Arrival Highlights – 24 April 2017

We’ve created a new tool to update us as species advance through their arrivals in each region, using data from eBird. We assign each species to four possible categories: Not Yet Arrived, Arrival Beginning, Approaching Peak, or Peaking. Then, we look for transitions between categories to tell us how each species is progressing through these […]


Updates from our friends in the field: Emily Cohen at Clive Runnels Mad Island Marsh Preserve

This week, Team BirdCast highlights a friend in the field. Today, it is Dr. Emily Cohen, a research associate at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute.


Regional Migration Forecast 21-28 April 2017

The West will see light to moderate flights, particularly in the Desert Southwest late in the weekend and late in the work week, featuring Spotted Sandpiper, Long-billed Dowitcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Townsend’s Warbler, MacGillivray’s Warbler, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Western Tanager, while a pulse of highly favorable migration period late in the period in the East will bring moderate to very heavy flights featuring Red-headed Woodpecker, Acadian Flycatcher, Least Flycatcher, Swainson’s Thrush, Chestnut-sided Warbler, Bay-breasted Warbler, Northern Parula, and Mourning Warbler. Early period brings a dynamic and complex atmosphere will potential for Gulf Coast concentrations, where late period brings a major incursion of Neotropical migrants across and around the Gulf of Mexico, as favorable flight conditions arrive in Mexico and northern Central America at the peak of the season.


Regional Migration Analysis: 14-21 April 2017

Moderate movements featuring Semipalmated Plover, Caspian Tern, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Nashville Warbler, and Western Tanager were the norm for California and the Desert Southwest, while moderate to locally heavy flights graced portions of the East and featured Spotted Sandpiper, Great Crested Flycatcher, Red-eyed Vireo, Wood Thrush, Blackpoll Warbler, Baltimore Oriole, and Dickcissel.


BirdCast World Edition: Barn Swallow in southeast Asia

Here comes the BirdCast World Edition again! Here, we highlight a species with an extensive global distribution and focus on populations that winter in and migrate through southeast Asia: Barn Swallow!


Arrival Highlights – 17 April 2017

We’ve created a new tool to update us as species advance through their arrivals in each region, using data from eBird. We assign each species to four possible categories: Not Yet Arrived, Arrival Beginning, Approaching Peak, or Peaking. Then, we look for transitions between categories to tell us how each species is progressing through these […]


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