Forecasts

BirdCast Europe Edition: Migration Progress, 14 April 2017

Team BirdCast is including a World Edition to bring a more diverse array of forecasts and analyses for this season. In this week’s post, we briefly feature four species: Common Cuckoo, Barn Swallow, Eurasian Blackcap, and European Robin.


Regional Migration Forecast: 14-21 April 2017

Scattered favorable conditions primary in the middle of the forecast period will see light to moderate flights of Green Heron, Western Sandpiper, Red-necked Phalarope, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Hammond’s Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, and Townsend’s Warbler for the West, while widespread favorable migration bring moderate to heavy flights in many areas of the East and will feature Sora, Least Sandpiper, Semipalmated Sandpiper, Common Nighthawk, Blue-headed Vireo, Kentucky Warbler, Summer Tanager, and Painted Bunting. Continued unfavorable conditions in many areas of northern Central America will slow the typical seasonal pulses of trans-Gulf migration.


Regional Migration Analysis: 7-14 April 2017

The past week in the West saw light to moderate flights primarily in the southern portion of the region featuring Swainson’s Hawk, Vaux’s Swift, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Cassin’s Vireo, Nashville Warbler, Grace’s Warbler, and Lazuli Bunting, while moderate and locally heavy flights came to many areas of the East and featured Marbled Godwit, Hudsonian Godwit, Swainson’s Thrush, Wood Thrush, House Wren, Northern Parula, Tennessee Warbler, and Rose-breasted Grosbeak.


Arrival Highlights – 8 April 2017

We’ve created a new tool to update us as species advance through their arrivals in each region. We assign each species to four possible categories, and we look for transitions between categories to tell us how each species is progressing through these stages. Most of the action is happening in the southeast, as we expect for this time of year. But this will not be true for long!


Regional Migration Forecast: 7-14 April 2017

Continental Summary Widespread light to moderate movements that feature Forster’s Tern, Vaux’s Swift, Bank Swallow, Wilson’s Warbler, Hermit Warbler, and Lazuli Bunting come to the West to begin and end the period, while the East experiences a series of moderate to heavy flights of Broad-winged Hawk, Sora, Semipalmated Plover, Semipalmated Sandpiper, Wilson’s Phalarope, Eastern Wood-Pewee, White-eyed Vireo, and […]


Swifts back on track? – 2 Apr 2017

On our 28 March arrival update, we highlighted the late arrival of Chimney Swifts into the US this spring. In the last several days, we’ve seen a big increase in eBird reports of swifts, and the 10-day delay we wrote about earlier seems to have evaporated!


Regional Migration Forecast: 31 March – 7 April 2017

Mostly unfavorable conditions for migration dominate in the West, restricting light to moderate flights of Green Heron, Black-bellied Plover, Ash-throated Flycatcher, American Pipit, Yellow-rumped Warbler, and Golden-crowned Sparrow to late in the period or local distributions, while mid and late period southerly flow will bring an influx of Caspian Tern, Forster’s Tern, Barn Swallow, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Prothonotary Warbler, Worm-eating Warbler, Palm Warbler, Summer Tanager, Lark Sparrow, Indigo Bunting, and Blue Grosbeak in moderate to locally heavy movements. Fallout potential on the Gulf Coast arrives on Monday and Tuesday in mid to eastern Gulf states and again on Thursday and Friday with the passage of significant frontal boundaries.


BirdCast World Edition: United Kingdom

Team BirdCast plans to include a more diverse array of forecasts and analyses for this season. You may have already seen some of the new graphics that we started to employ earlier in March. Now, we present another new feature: BirdCast World Edition.


Regional Migration Analysis: 24-31 March 2017

Scattered among the West’s areas of persistent precipitation during were light to moderate flights featuring Turkey Vulture, Greater Yellowlegs, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Hooded Oriole, while pulses of similarly intense flights featuring Great Egret, Eastern Kingbird, Barn Swallow, Brown Thrasher, Prothonotary Warbler, and Louisiana Waterthrush occurred in advance of multiple frontal passages in the East.


Arrival Highlights – 28 March 2017

The last several days have seen significant movements of birds in the US. Here are the highlights: On March 20th, we predicted a big influx of Scissor-tailed Flycatchers: Scissor-tailed Flycatchers are poised for a big entrance in the next week #GulfCoast #migration pic.twitter.com/jfLfnIsQMs — BirdCast–Cornell Lab (@DrBirdCast) March 20, 2017 We can now report that […]


Arrival Highlights – 25 March 2017

Species currently on the move in the United States include: Louisiana Waterthrush Great Egret Ruby-throated Hummingbird Osprey Red-eyed Vireo Hooded Warbler Prothonotary Warbler


Regional Migration Forecast: 24-31 March 2017

The West will see a mix of marginal migration conditions spawning scattered light to moderate movements featuring Caspian Tern, Cassin’s Vireo, Barn Swallow, American Pipit, Black-throated Gray Warbler, Savannah Sparrow, and Golden-crowned Sparrow, while light to locally heavy flights in the first half of the period and to end the period in the East will feature Sharp-shinned Hawk, Franklin’s Gull, Northern Rough-winged Swallow, Great Crested Flycatcher, Pine Warbler, Yellow-throated Warbler, Yellow-headed Blackbird, Orchard Oriole, and Field Sparrow. The forecast for late in this period also suggests the first significant chance for fallouts and concentrations of migrants along the Gulf Coast.


Regional Migration Analysis: 17-24 March 2017

The West experienced light to moderate movements early in the period, primarily in the southern reaches of the region, featuring Osprey, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Western Kingbird, Barn Swallow, Warbling Vireo, and Grace’s Warbler, while the central and southern portions of the East experienced light to moderate flights featuring Great Blue Heron, Osprey, American Golden-Plover, Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, Black-chinned Hummingbird, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, and Louisiana Waterthrush. The greatest extent of these movements occurred in the West on 17-18 March and in the East on 23-24 March.


Visualizing Migration

This spring, we’ll be tracking migration from many angles. New interactive maps made with eBird data will give us a bird’s-eye view of migration in progress. We’ll also make use of line graphs showing the percent of eBird checklists reporting species through time. And follow us on Twitter!


Regional Migration Forecast: 17-24 March 2017

A week of often favorable migration conditions punctuated with scattered precipitation will see light to moderate flights in many areas of the West that will feature American White Pelican, Black-chinned Hummingbird, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Orange-crowned Warbler, White-crowned Sparrow, and Hooded Oriole, while cooler temperatures in the East alternate with some pulses of marginally favorable migration conditions that feature light to moderate movements of Common Loon, Double-crested Cormorant, Broad-winged Hawk, Northern Flicker, Purple Martin, Golden-crowned Kinglet, and Prairie Warbler.


Regional Migration Analysis: 10-17 March 2017

Light to moderate flights in the West, primarily in California and the Desert Southwest, featured Black-chinned Hummingbird, Western Kingbird, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Wilson’s Warbler, and Hooded Oriole, while a mostly quiet and cooler East saw locally moderate movements featuring Swainson’s Hawk, Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, Hooded Warbler, Fox Sparrow, and Chipping Sparrow.


Regional Migration Forecast: 10-17 March 2017

A pulse of widespread light to moderate movements in favorable migration conditions comes to the West on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with species on the move including Rufous Hummingbird, Western Kingbird, Orange-crowned Warbler, Lucy’s Warbler, Hooded Oriole, and Scott’s Oriole, while highly variable, and in some cases extreme wintry, weather halts and starts mostly light to moderate flights that will include Blue-winged Teal, Green-winged Teal, Osprey, Killdeer, Greater Yellowlegs, Baird’s Sandpiper, Pectoral Sandpiper, Yellow-throated Vireo, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Louisiana Waterthrush, and Field Sparrow.


Regional Migration Analysis: 3-10 March 2017

Scattered light to moderate movements, primarily in California and the Desert Southwest, punctuated the early migration scene in the West and featured Swainson’s Hawk, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Bell’s Vireo, Sage Thrasher, and Hooded Oriole, while light to moderate flights in the southern states featured Blue-winged Teal, Osprey, Chuck-will’s-widow, Eastern Phoebe, Tree Swallow, Marsh Wren, and Summer Tanager.


Regional Migration Forecast: 3-10 March 2017

A favorable weekend forecast will see light to locally moderate flights of numerous species of waterfowl, Tree Swallow, Northern Rough-winged Swallow, and Ruby-crowned Kinglet in the West, while a weekend blast of winter cold precedes a serious of much more favorable spring like days with moderate to locally heavy flights of waterfowl, Killdeer, Eastern Phoebe, and Red-winged Blackbird in the East.


Spring 2017 and BirdCast: Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow . . .

Did Team BirdCast say spring 2017 and it’s only February? Are we incorrect in saying this on two conflicting fronts, first because of the record winter warmth in many parts of the US that already seems like spring (or summer!) and second because of the date on the calendar? Well, we may be incorrect because of the date on the calendar, but birds have been on the move for many weeks now. And the warm temperatures in many areas of the country have no doubt played a large role in some of the magnitude of these movements. Here’s just a sample of what’s on the move in the last week, to whet your appetite for our upcoming weekly migration forecast and analysis features.


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