Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 28 April – 5 May 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab May 05, 2017

Bobolink. Bente Torvund/Macaulay Library. eBird S36238560.

Continental Summary

Moderate flights occurred in many areas of the West and featured Spotted Sandpiper, Wilson’s Phalarope, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Western Tanager, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Evening Grosbeak, while in the East moderate and heavy flights punctuated by intense low pressure systems featured Mississippi Kite, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, Bell’s Vireo, Bay-breasted Warbler, Magnolia Warbler, Canada Warbler, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Bobolink, and Dickcissel.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate flights occurred over the weekend amidst some significant disturbances passing through the region. Most of these movements subsided by Monday and Tuesday nights, when only localized light to moderate movements were aloft in coastal and Midwestern locales. Wednesday and Thursday saw a return to the earlier period pattern, with moderate movements in Midwest and in New England, with a significant storm system moving across the region literally dampening migrants elsewhere.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Baltimore Oriole 194% 22.5
Black-throated Blue Warbler 241% 9.8
American Redstart 206% 13.9
Gray Catbird 141% 42
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 164% 15.7
Veery 275% 6.7
Ovenbird 123% 18.2
Black-and-white Warbler 109% 19.9
Blackpoll Warbler 281% 3.8
Red-eyed Vireo 125% 11.9
Common Yellowthroat 91% 23.9
Magnolia Warbler 507% 2.7
Chestnut-sided Warbler 291% 3.4
Scarlet Tanager 139% 9.7
Great Crested Flycatcher 101% 13.1
Swainson's Thrush 189% 4.8
Cape May Warbler 405% 2.2
Eastern Kingbird 104% 11.7
Bobolink 309% 2.2
Indigo Bunting 110% 8.9
Wood Thrush 82% 14.9
Black-throated Green Warbler 101% 9.5
Yellow Warbler 65% 25.7
Chimney Swift 86% 12.4
Northern Waterthrush 93% 7.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -48% 3.6
Rusty Blackbird -58% 0.8
Field Sparrow -20% 9.8
Northern Shoveler -36% 2.3
Green-winged Teal -40% 1.9
American Coot -32% 2.7
Wilson's Snipe -46% 1.2
Belted Kingfisher -16% 8.5
Blue-winged Teal -19% 5.7
Ring-necked Duck -41% 1.6
Killdeer -11% 13.8
Pectoral Sandpiper -39% 1.4
Pied-billed Grebe -28% 2.9
Bufflehead -27% 3
Greater Yellowlegs -18% 6
Hermit Thrush -20% 4.7
Brown Thrasher -13% 9.8
White-throated Sparrow -10% 32
Hooded Merganser -33% 1.8
Fish Crow -14% 6.9

Bay-breasted Warbler. Roland Rumm/Macaulay Library. eBird S36227379.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to heavy movements were widespread in the region to begin the period, most extensively so on Friday night. The nights that followed saw significant precipitation shut down flights in some areas. Moderate to heavy flights were again widespread on Monday and Tuesday nights, in advance of a strong storm system passing into the Gulf of Mexico region on Wednesday. With the departure of this system into the mid Atlantic, locally moderate to heavy flights occurred in mostly marginal conditions on Thursday night. Note that early in the period and late in the period, precipitation put down numerous migrants, including in deadly fashion in some locations.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Magnolia Warbler 140% 7.9
Chestnut-sided Warbler 142% 7.8
Bay-breasted Warbler 157% 6
Eastern Wood-Pewee 86% 12.2
American Redstart 48% 13.9
Mississippi Kite 90% 5.7
Black-throated Green Warbler 56% 8.8
Least Flycatcher 121% 2.8
Acadian Flycatcher 76% 4.7
Yellow Warbler 47% 10.5
American Crow 19% 29.5
Chimney Swift 20% 21.3
Canada Warbler 149% 1.9
American Robin 19% 19
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 22% 15.1
Golden-winged Warbler 109% 2.2
Philadelphia Vireo 76% 2.8
Eastern Phoebe 19% 13
White-rumped Sandpiper 55% 2
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 869% 0.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Palm Warbler -51% 3.4
White-throated Sparrow -66% 1.7
Worm-eating Warbler -60% 1.6
Blackpoll Warbler -51% 3.2
Cape May Warbler -52% 2.6
Willet -37% 5
Lesser Yellowlegs -37% 4.4
Marsh Wren -54% 1.2
Blue-winged Teal -38% 4.6
Short-billed Dowitcher -46% 1.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler -34% 6.1
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -50% 1.7
Sora -48% 1.1
Osprey -22% 11
Cattle Egret -25% 7.2
Forster's Tern -30% 3.6
Marbled Godwit -75% 0.2
Merlin -79% 0.2
Northern Harrier -70% 0.3
Common Gallinule -24% 5.9
Greater Yellowlegs -31% 2.7
Whimbrel -44% 1.2
Pied-billed Grebe -38% 1.9
Savannah Sparrow -32% 2.5

Mississippi Kite. Rolando Jordan/Macaulay Library. eBird S36501190.

Great Plains

Local light to moderate flights, primarily in the southern and northern Plains, were the norm for the first days of the period. The distribution of these flights largely surrounded areas of unfavorable weather, most intense on Saturday and Sunday in the central Plains. By Tuesday night more extensive light to moderate flights were apparent, though primarily still in the southern half of the region. Wednesday and Thursday night saw moderate flights return to the northern and central Plains.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow Warbler 232% 8.8
Dickcissel 127% 10.5
Baltimore Oriole 96% 13.1
Western Kingbird 96% 10.7
Least Flycatcher 272% 3.5
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 319% 3.4
Bell's Vireo 476% 2.1
Indigo Bunting 90% 7.2
Chimney Swift 83% 7.8
Gray Catbird 92% 6.6
Eastern Kingbird 43% 13.8
Barn Swallow 25% 33
Orchard Oriole 178% 3.3
Chipping Sparrow 29% 28.2
Bobolink 316% 1.8
House Wren 36% 19.7
White-crowned Sparrow 28% 20
White-rumped Sandpiper 124% 3.3
Blue Grosbeak 158% 2.6
Painted Bunting 120% 3
Swainson's Thrush 42% 9.9
Mississippi Kite 290% 1.3
Purple Martin 49% 7.9
Clay-colored Sparrow 36% 10

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Horned Grebe -78% 0.7
Green-winged Teal -49% 3.4
Gadwall -40% 6.4
American Wigeon -48% 3.3
Double-crested Cormorant -32% 11.4
Black-throated Blue Warbler -79% 0.4
Ruddy Duck -39% 4.7
Ring-necked Pheasant -31% 7.1
Northern Pintail -38% 4.2
Redhead -40% 3.1
Canvasback -51% 1.5
Northern Harrier -43% 2.8
Osprey -43% 2.4
Dark-eyed Junco -78% 0.5
Western Meadowlark -27% 10.9
Hermit Thrush -66% 0.6
Ring-billed Gull -26% 8.4
Bufflehead -47% 2
Northern Shoveler -21% 16.4
Mallard -18% 25.5
Marbled Godwit -45% 1.8
Lesser Scaup -34% 4
Black-necked Stilt -49% 1.2
Semipalmated Plover -36% 2.8
Wilson's Snipe -39% 2.1

Spotted Sandpiper. Ed Harper/Macaulay Library. eBird S36343464.

West

Light to moderate flights were apparent in some areas of the region for much of the period, particularly in California, the Desert Southwest, and portions of the Great Basin. However, it was on Thursday night when the extent of movement across the region was at its greatest, with moderate flights from northern California and the Desert Southwest east through the souther and central Rockies and in portions of the Great Basin. These flights included some locally heavy movements in eastern Colorado and New Mexico.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Western Tanager 89% 9.9
Black-headed Grosbeak 52% 16.6
Yellow Warbler 50% 10.6
Warbling Vireo 50% 9.3
American Goldfinch 31% 15.8
Spotted Sandpiper 43% 7.8
Swainson's Thrush 159% 2
Western Wood-Pewee 74% 2.9
Evening Grosbeak 67% 2.8
Wilson's Phalarope 69% 2.9
Brown-headed Cowbird 24% 17.3
Western Kingbird 24% 11.7
Spotted Towhee 17% 25.6
Chipping Sparrow 27% 8.8
Bullock's Oriole 25% 7.7
Wilson's Warbler 20% 15.1
MacGillivray's Warbler 51% 1.9
Purple Martin 57% 1.6
Red-breasted Nuthatch 23% 7.2
Lazuli Bunting 26% 5.9
Yellow-breasted Chat 36% 2.8
Violet-green Swallow 14% 17.8
American Robin 8% 41.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Sparrow -35% 4.9
Cackling Goose -51% 0.8
Greater White-fronted Goose -49% 0.6
Greater Yellowlegs -29% 2.2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -18% 5.7
Lincoln's Sparrow -28% 2.2
Least Sandpiper -20% 4.6
Green-winged Teal -15% 6.2
Horned Grebe -28% 1.4
Surf Scoter -21% 2.1
Double-crested Cormorant -9% 11.2
Turkey Vulture -6% 20.9
American Coot -8% 14.4
Black Turnstone -69% 0.1
Northern Harrier -14% 4
Brant -31% 0.7
Bufflehead -10% 7.1
Mew Gull -32% 0.6
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -9% 10.8
Red-breasted Merganser -17% 1.7
Short-billed Dowitcher -30% 0.7

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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