Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 27 October – 3 November 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 03, 2017

Long-tailed Duck. Greg Osborne/Macaulay Library. eBird S40248601.

Continental Summary

Light and locally moderate movements featuring Common Goldeneye, Hooded Merganser, Tundra Swan, Bonaparte’s Gull, Say’s Phoebe, American Pipit, and Rusty Blackbird, were the norm in some parts of the West, while pulses of locally moderate to heavy flights came to the East and featured Bufflehead, Hooded Merganser, Ross’s Goose, Common Loon, Rough-legged Hawk, Herring Gull, Hermit Thrush, Snow Bunting, and Dark-eyed Junco.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Local moderate flights directly behind and far ahead of a frontal boundary kicked off the period on Friday night. As the front moved east, moderate flights became slightly more widespread in its wake. However, the air mass following this frontal passage had sufficient disturbance in the form of precipitation that more widespread flights did not occur. Monday and Tuesday night saw the region’s most intense and extensive flights, first in the Ohio River Valley and then toward the coast, respectively. The next frontal boundary pushing into the region quieted migration significantly. But as it passed by Thursday night across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley, moderate and locally heavy flights followed.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 739% 8.2
Hooded Merganser 303% 6.2
Bonaparte's Gull 175% 7.2
American Tree Sparrow 222% 5.3
Ring-necked Duck 125% 4.9
Long-tailed Duck 307% 2.4
Red-breasted Merganser 148% 4.1
Snow Bunting 581% 1.8
Common Loon 86% 7.9
Horned Grebe 161% 3.1
Lesser Scaup 174% 3.3
Common Goldeneye 392% 1.6
Fox Sparrow 113% 4.9
Rough-legged Hawk 413% 1.5
Common Redpoll 2152% 1.2
Common Merganser 105% 4.1
Brant 101% 4.4
American Coot 46% 8.4
Ruddy Duck 56% 7.1
White-winged Scoter 75% 3.3
Red Crossbill 179% 1.1
Herring Gull 14% 18.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Phoebe -68% 4.8
Palm Warbler -74% 2.5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -51% 11.8
Yellow-rumped Warbler -45% 19.3
Eastern Towhee -54% 5.1
Gray Catbird -77% 2
Red-winged Blackbird -41% 15.6
White-crowned Sparrow -48% 5.5
Swamp Sparrow -46% 8.7
Chipping Sparrow -44% 6.9
Lincoln's Sparrow -77% 0.9
Turkey Vulture -37% 15.2
Common Grackle -45% 7
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -54% 3.2
Killdeer -45% 5.8
Northern Flicker -35% 16.3
Savannah Sparrow -48% 4.4
Song Sparrow -26% 29.1
Great Egret -50% 3.8
Brown-headed Cowbird -56% 1.9
Orange-crowned Warbler -67% 1
American Robin -20% 35.6
Hermit Thrush -42% 5.2
Osprey -56% 1.6

Ring-billed Gull. Mary Harrell/Macaulay Library. eBird S40254731.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A passing frontal boundary brought favorable conditions for moderate flights to the region for the weekend. By Monday night a new wave of moderate flights arrived in Texas and portions of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. These movements were promptly shut down Tuesday night as a disturbance passed over this portion of the region, leaving only scattered light to moderate flights in evidence near the Atlantic Coast and in southern Texas. This pattern of far eastern and western pulses of migration intensified to end the period, with some flights even reaching locally heavy amounts.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ring-necked Duck 919% 3.3
White-throated Sparrow 104% 10.1
Dark-eyed Junco 212% 3.6
Gadwall 115% 5.1
Hermit Thrush 115% 4.4
Song Sparrow 63% 13.8
Lesser Scaup 1379% 1.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler 56% 23.2
American Coot 61% 9.9
Redhead 377% 1.5
Orange-crowned Warbler 66% 6.7
Snow Goose 857% 1.2
Northern Shoveler 86% 4.9
Green-winged Teal 111% 3.9
Pied-billed Grebe 48% 13.8
American Pipit 195% 2
Ring-billed Gull 66% 5
Chipping Sparrow 47% 7.8
Swamp Sparrow 50% 7.9
Franklin's Gull 466% 1.2
Winter Wren 82% 3.2
Dunlin 86% 3.1
Common Loon 1805% 0.8
Wilson's Snipe 68% 3.3
Hooded Merganser 3046% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Indigo Bunting -81% 1.6
White-eyed Vireo -66% 4.1
Brown Thrasher -47% 8.2
Common Yellowthroat -48% 7.4
Black-throated Blue Warbler -84% 0.7
Gray Catbird -37% 16.5
Black-and-white Warbler -53% 4.6
Eastern Wood-Pewee -89% 0.5
Black-throated Green Warbler -75% 0.8
Tennessee Warbler -78% 0.7
Pine Warbler -39% 7.5
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -59% 1.5
Nashville Warbler -57% 0.8
Northern Flicker -22% 16.1
Peregrine Falcon -51% 1.2
Broad-winged Hawk -63% 0.4
Caspian Tern -31% 2.5
Sharp-shinned Hawk -34% 2.2

Ross’s Goose. Charles Shield/Macaulay Library. eBird S40270161.

Great Plains

Local and light movements were the norm for most of the first half of the period. By Monday night, however, the southern Plains experienced more intense flights, particularly evident over eastern Oklahoma. This burst of movement was short-lived, as the days that followed held precipitation and little if any migration. A frontal passage to end the period brought a respite from these unfavorable conditions, spawning locally moderate to heavy flights in the central and southern Plains on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hooded Merganser 867% 7.6
Cackling Goose 371% 6.9
Lesser Scaup 209% 8.3
Common Loon 603% 4.6
Dark-eyed Junco 83% 41.3
Rough-legged Hawk 278% 6
Redhead 108% 11.4
American Tree Sparrow 119% 9.9
Mallard 54% 33.3
Canvasback 175% 6.9
Northern Shoveler 70% 14.4
Ring-necked Duck 98% 10
Ross's Goose 1172% 2.3
Ruddy Duck 86% 10.3
Canada Goose 38% 31.3
Northern Pintail 87% 8.4
Ring-billed Gull 37% 26.6
Herring Gull 171% 4.2
Greater Scaup 921% 1.9
Gadwall 50% 18.7
Snow Goose 150% 4.5
Whooping Crane -5733% 1.2
Bufflehead 88% 6.5
Bonaparte's Gull 192% 3.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Turkey Vulture -96% 0.5
Lincoln's Sparrow -81% 1.6
Orange-crowned Warbler -83% 1.2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -61% 5.1
Horned Lark -67% 2.7
Franklin's Gull -54% 8.6
Common Grackle -56% 5
Vesper Sparrow -73% 1.3
Swamp Sparrow -70% 1.5
Eastern Phoebe -72% 1.6
Western Meadowlark -51% 5.6
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -89% 0.3
Blue-winged Teal -76% 1.1
Brown-headed Cowbird -68% 1.4
Great Egret -66% 1.8
Savannah Sparrow -44% 5.9
Wood Duck -59% 2
Chipping Sparrow -47% 4
White-crowned Sparrow -37% 7.3
Northern Flicker -23% 22
Nashville Warbler -92% 0.1
Sharp-shinned Hawk -53% 2.3
Yellow-rumped Warbler -18% 20
Spotted Towhee -55% 1.7
Clay-colored Sparrow -94% 0.1

Snow Goose. John Bishop/Macaulay Library. eBird S40274121.

West

Light migration was in evidence in a number of areas for the first half of the period. Most notably, light flights occurred along the Pacific Coast south and east into the Desert Southwest, with a particular apparent area of activity in the Central Valley of California. The second half of the period saw movements continue in these areas, but most of the remainder of the region experienced noticeably less favorable conditions. Precipitation shut down flights in many areas from the Pacific Northwest south and east into the northern and central Rockies.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 337% 12.7
Hooded Merganser 185% 5.3
Ring-necked Duck 66% 10
American Wigeon 42% 16.4
Lesser Scaup 86% 4.7
Tundra Swan 1414% 1.3
Bonaparte's Gull 133% 2.6
Northern Shoveler 31% 11.4
Red-breasted Merganser 166% 1.8
Ruddy Duck 31% 10.6
Canvasback 103% 2.2
Common Goldeneye 175% 0.9
American Pipit 30% 8
Northern Pintail 30% 6.7
Common Merganser 40% 3.8
Rusty Blackbird 4297% 0.4
American Avocet 43% 3.3
American Coot 15% 23.9
Snow Goose 56% 2.2
Mew Gull 35% 3.5
Say's Phoebe 16% 11.9
Mallard 8% 31.2
Pied-billed Grebe 13% 16.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hairy Woodpecker -36% 3.5
American Robin -22% 17.3
Savannah Sparrow -24% 6.5
Townsend's Warbler -30% 3.4
Band-tailed Pigeon -30% 2.3
Black-throated Gray Warbler -43% 1
Evening Grosbeak -39% 1.2
Brewer's Blackbird -17% 7.3
Killdeer -13% 12.3
Chestnut-backed Chickadee -16% 8
Heermann's Gull -28% 2.1
Sandhill Crane -31% 1.4
Red-winged Blackbird -11% 14.5
Sanderling -35% 0.9
Orange-crowned Warbler -17% 5.6
Hutton's Vireo -21% 2.7
House Wren -14% 4.9
Red Crossbill -24% 1.6
Red-breasted Nuthatch -8% 11.5
Horned Lark -19% 2.3
Pine Siskin -9% 8.6

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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