Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 3-10 November 2017

Heather Wolf The Cornell Lab Nov 09, 2017

American Woodcock. Richard Evon/Macaulay Library. eBird S40330645.

Continental Summary

Local light and moderate flights were the norm in the West featuring Common and Barrow’s Goldeneyes, Trumpeter Swan, Bonaparte’s Gull, Snowy Owl, American Kestrel, and Horned Lark, while moderate and heavy flights occurred in numerous areas of the East featuring Canvasback, Common Goldeneye, Hooded, Red-breasted and Common Mergansers, Tundra Swan, Bonaparte’s Gull, Snow Bunting, and American Tree Sparrow.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Widespread moderate to locally heavy flights kicked off the weekend. These extent of these flights quickly collapsed to isolated coastal flights by Saturday, but then expanded again in portions of the Upper Midwest following the passage of a frontal boundary there on Sunday night. As the frontal boundary moved east, locally moderate to heavy flights followed on Monday night. And the remainder of the week saw similarly restricted moderate and heavy flights around the region, particularly in its southern reaches. Note some local coastal activity persisted on many nights of the period, typical of this time of the migration season.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 567% 18.1
Tundra Swan 1843% 4.8
Hooded Merganser 248% 10.5
Common Goldeneye 414% 4.1
Common Loon 76% 10.6
Red-breasted Merganser 99% 5.5
Horned Grebe 127% 4.8
Bonaparte's Gull 71% 7.7
Lesser Scaup 119% 4.6
Long-tailed Duck 137% 3
Common Merganser 96% 5.3
Ruddy Duck 53% 8.7
American Tree Sparrow 71% 6.2
Snowy Owl 1743% 0.5
Snow Bunting 75% 2.2
White-winged Scoter 34% 3.6
Pied-billed Grebe 15% 12.2
Greater Scaup 42% 1.8
Rough-legged Hawk 48% 1.3
Common Redpoll 60% 1.1
Trumpeter Swan 40% 1.4
Brant 17% 3.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-crowned Sparrow -73% 2.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler -53% 12.4
Chipping Sparrow -63% 3.6
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -55% 7.3
Red-winged Blackbird -41% 13.3
Turkey Vulture -43% 11.5
Savannah Sparrow -62% 2.7
American Robin -25% 30.4
Swamp Sparrow -47% 6.3
Killdeer -55% 4
Eastern Phoebe -68% 2.4
Great Egret -64% 2.2
Field Sparrow -53% 3.2
Common Grackle -41% 6.5
Song Sparrow -22% 26
Lincoln's Sparrow -88% 0.3
Orange-crowned Warbler -80% 0.4
Double-crested Cormorant -22% 17.4
Eastern Towhee -45% 3.8
Hermit Thrush -46% 3.6
Great Blue Heron -21% 15.1
Greater Yellowlegs -40% 3.2
White-throated Sparrow -17% 26.5
Blue Jay -12% 48.7
Blue-winged Teal -74% 0.4

Bufflehead. Jay Wherley/Macaulay Library. eBird S40409298.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Widespread moderate flights in the region began on Friday night but gradually became increasingly less extensive by Sunday, when they were distributed mostly in coastal areas. Monday and Tuesday nights saw these movements generally intensify, though they remained somewhat less extensive than region wide. With a slow frontal passage ending the period, moderate to locally very heavy flights occurred on Wednesday and Thursday nights in the wake of the boundary’s advances.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hooded Merganser 2173% 3.2
Ring-necked Duck 314% 6.2
Lesser Scaup 484% 3.6
Dark-eyed Junco 182% 5.5
Bufflehead 2381% 2
Northern Pintail 187% 5.4
Northern Shoveler 113% 7.8
Snow Goose 366% 2.7
Redhead 257% 3.3
Canvasback 830% 1.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Gray Catbird -40% 12.7
Indigo Bunting -78% 1.1
Blue Jay -26% 35.3
Brown Thrasher -47% 5.5
Pine Warbler -41% 5.9
Palm Warbler -25% 17.2
Northern Flicker -25% 13.5
Black-and-white Warbler -47% 3.6
Black-throated Blue Warbler -92% 0.2
Barn Swallow -48% 2.7
Common Yellowthroat -30% 7.8
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -31% 6.7
Yellow-throated Warbler -50% 2.2
Turkey Vulture -17% 29
Common Grackle -23% 10.4
Black-throated Green Warbler -61% 0.8
Tennessee Warbler -76% 0.3
American Crow -15% 27.2
Red-tailed Hawk -22% 10.4

Ferruginous Hawk. Colin Croft/Macaulay Library. eBird S40313437.

Great Plains

A slow start for migration on Friday and Saturday finally gave way to scattered moderate to heavy flights in the central and southern Plains on Sunday night. Several small pulses of locally light to moderate flights persisted generally in more southern areas for the remainder of the period, but migration was generally low intensity or nearly nonexistent in other areas.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hooded Merganser 645% 14
Common Goldeneye 1420% 5.6
Snow Goose 421% 10.7
Bufflehead 238% 13.5
Lesser Scaup 209% 15.3
Common Merganser 2385% 3.5
Common Loon 321% 7.2
Red-breasted Merganser 3615% 3.2
Ross's Goose 748% 3.6
Cackling Goose 176% 8.5
Bonaparte's Gull 258% 5.9
Mallard 53% 36.3
Canada Goose 52% 37.2
Herring Gull 154% 5
American Kestrel 70% 13.5
Ferruginous Hawk 259% 2.3
Redhead 60% 11.8
Northern Shoveler 49% 14.9
Greater White-fronted Goose 144% 4.4
Golden-crowned Kinglet 94% 4.6
Greater Scaup 219% 2.2
Ring-billed Gull 24% 28.3
Canvasback 68% 6.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chipping Sparrow -66% 2.3
Lincoln's Sparrow -69% 1.5
Red Crossbill -78% 0.9
Red-breasted Nuthatch -57% 2.4
Eared Grebe -78% 0.5
Franklin's Gull -38% 6.6
Common Grackle -45% 3.9
Black-capped Chickadee -26% 15.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler -23% 16.8
Field Sparrow -48% 2
Red-bellied Woodpecker -20% 17.2
Blue-winged Teal -67% 0.7
Long-billed Dowitcher -91% 0.1
Turkey Vulture -52% 2.4
Northern Flicker -17% 19.9
Orange-crowned Warbler -54% 1.1
Sharp-shinned Hawk -40% 2.3
Swamp Sparrow -42% 1.7
Marsh Wren -54% 0.6
White-throated Sparrow -18% 9.7
Great Egret -42% 1.6
American Avocet -47% 0.9
Carolina Wren -15% 12.2

Trumpeter Swan. John Gatchet/Macaulay Library. eBird S40373243.

West

Scattered precipitation and some unfavorable wind conditions kept many remaining migrants in the region grounded for much of the weekend. Moderate flights returned to the most common location for such flights in the region at this time of year, the Central Valley of California. However, disturbances and their associated precipitation returned to fill the remainder of the period in many areas, with generally marginal to unfavorable migration conditions keeping migration localized and light.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye 1767% 6.5
Bufflehead 104% 16.2
Hooded Merganser 112% 6.8
Red-breasted Merganser 179% 3.3
Lesser Scaup 76% 6.6
Barrow's Goldeneye 226% 1.5
Snow Goose 79% 3.8
Trumpeter Swan 196% 1.4
Bonaparte's Gull 59% 3
American Kestrel 19% 14.9
Tundra Swan 96% 1.6
Ring-necked Duck 21% 9.8
Canvasback 55% 2.7
California Gull 19% 10.7
Pacific Loon 56% 2.1
Ring-billed Gull 15% 11.6
Horned Lark 33% 3.6
Herring Gull 33% 3.6
Snowy Owl 4692% 0.2
Black Turnstone 44% 2.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Steller's Jay -34% 11.1
Red-breasted Nuthatch -28% 8.7
Golden-crowned Kinglet -35% 3.9
Savannah Sparrow -32% 5.3
Red Crossbill -36% 1.5
Black-capped Chickadee -15% 15
Green-winged Teal -16% 7.7
Downy Woodpecker -17% 6.9
Western Meadowlark -15% 7.4
Hutton's Vireo -21% 2.7
Least Sandpiper -18% 3.8
Belted Kingfisher -13% 10.6
Red-breasted Sapsucker -24% 1.6
House Wren -18% 4.3
Cedar Waxwing -17% 5.1
Forster's Tern -25% 1.3
Red-necked Grebe -26% 1.3
Common Grackle -61% 0.2
Blue-winged Teal -24% 1.2
Purple Finch -19% 1.9
American Pipit -12% 6.6
Greater White-fronted Goose -19% 1.6

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