Forecasts are likely converging by this point, and a central New Jersey coast strike seems likely. Please see eBird for a discussion of possible species composition of the storm. Landfall is slated to occur very early Tuesday morning on 30 October, and at first light the eye is likely to be somewhere inland in central NJ. The track afterward is similar to previous forecasts, moving the storm into central PA and then eventually Lake Ontario by Wednesday. All points north of landfall on the central NJ coast north and east to Long Island are likely to experience very nasty and dangerous conditions as well as see the largest displacement events of coastal and near-shore species. This will probably include some entrained tropical and pelagic species. North and Central NJ, eastern PA, and central NY will probably see hurricane-driven birds on all inland water bodies and river valleys. Given the storm’s current track, the Delaware River and Delaware looks to be a major exit strategy for hurricane-driven birds that end up inland, presumably primarily on Tuesday but to some extent on Wednesday. Additionally coastal location will certainly see the largest diversity and abundance of hurricane birds on Tuesday. New York Harbor and the Hudson may act as an endpoint or exit for hurricane-driven birds, depending on how much farther north the storm tracks, particularly on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Lake Ontario may be a major conduit and end point for hurricane birds as well, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday but possibly for days and even longer after the storm passes. Lake watches could be extremely interesting late in the week and through next week. As stated previously, safety is the primary concern – this storm will be extremely dangerous and being safe is the top priority above all.
8AM EDT Forecast Track, 28 October 2012
