The most recent forecast has not changed terribly – this massive storm’s circulation looks to be coming ashore on Monday night along the southern or central New Jersey shore, moving inland to central Pennsylvania by Tuesday night, into Lake Ontario on Wednesday night, and then north and east into the St Lawrence by Thursday night. Dangerous conditions are going to be widespread, so extreme caution is required in consideration and action – safety is always first! The shear size of this storm, among a few other attributes, make speculating about what might occur as it passes all the more interesting. Such a large storm that could spawn alcid wrecks in and around Cape Cod and Pterodromas and frigatebirds farther south is a unique juxtaposition that will make for lively post-game debates. Birders along the immediate path of this storm close to the coast have the greatest chance of something exotic, and presumably this chance is still reasonable as far west as much of the Delaware Valley. Much of what was posited in the last forecast still holds relevance. However, one intriguing point to consider – if, in fact, conditions for departure of hurricane-driven birds do not ameliorate quickly as they do after most hurricanes pass, these birds could stay where they are. Sandy is so large that even after circulation comes ashore, much nasty weather will remain before clearing finally occurs later in the week . . .
11PM EDT Forecast Track, 28 October 2012
