Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 13-20 March 2015

Benjamin Van Doren The Cornell Lab Mar 13, 2015

Blue-winged Teal

Continental Summary

Weekend birders can look forward to widespread light to moderate movements across the West, while Monday through Wednesday brings similarly widespread light to moderate flights in the East. Species on the move this week will include Blue-winged Teal, Turkey Vulture, Eastern Phoebe, Western Kingbird, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, Tree Swallow, Lucy’s Warbler, and Hooded Warbler.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.
Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Arriving low pressure in the region brings short-lived favorable conditions for light to moderate movements to kick off the weekend before widespread precipitation shuts down migrants. Birders should watch this precipitation carefully, as it could concentrate birds, particularly waterbirds. Sunday and Monday nights see a return of more widespread favorable conditions, with southerly winds on Monday night spawning nearly region wide and moderate flights. Late week conditions, while also favorable in some areas, will not yield such extensive flights, with more local light to moderate flights and some locations shut down completely in rain.

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Eastern Phoebe 2-Mar 29-Mar 12-Apr
Wilson’s Snipe 8-Mar 25-Mar 15-Apr 30-Apr
Great Blue Heron 11-Mar 21-Mar 14-May
Osprey 13-Mar 29-Mar 19-Apr
Blue-winged Teal 14-Mar 31-Mar 18-Apr 2-May
Northern Gannet 14-Mar 24-Mar 5-Apr 19-Apr
American Kestrel 15-Mar 28-Mar 11-Apr 29-Apr
Pectoral Sandpiper 16-Mar 29-Mar 17-Apr 24-May
Brown-headed Cowbird 16-Mar 8-Apr 2-May
Common Loon 17-Mar 26-Mar 11-Apr 26-Apr
Double-crested Cormorant 18-Mar 1-Apr 19-Apr
Bonaparte’s Gull 18-Mar 30-Mar 11-Apr 24-Apr

Arriving

No species arriving rapidly yet — check back next week!

Peaking

Species Peak Rapid Depart
Snow Goose 6-Mar 29-Mar
Bald Eagle 9-Mar  –
Canvasback 11-Mar 30-Mar
Northern Pintail 12-Mar 31-Mar
Common Merganser 12-Mar 11-Apr
Red-necked Grebe 12-Mar 23-Mar
Tundra Swan 13-Mar 29-Mar
Redhead 13-Mar 30-Mar
American Woodcock 17-Mar 16-Apr
American Wigeon 19-Mar 11-Apr
Red-breasted Merganser 19-Mar 21-Apr

Departing

Species Rapid Depart
White-winged Scoter Before 1-Mar
Rough-legged Hawk Before 1-Mar
Great Black-backed Gull Before 1-Mar
Snow Bunting Before 1-Mar
Horned Lark 19-Mar

Wood Duck

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Local light to moderate movements highlight the weekend in Florida and a few other locations, while the bulk of region waits patiently. On Monday, and then again late in the week, light to moderate movements will occur, but these will not be region wide. Wednesday-Thursday have the most favorable conditions for diurnal and nocturnal migrants to move through Texas, but note that no favorable conditions for trans-Gulf migration are apparent for any part of the week.

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Black-and-white Warbler 10-Mar 17-Apr 26-Apr 9-May
Lesser Yellowlegs 11-Mar 15-Apr 24-Apr 10-May
Baird’s Sandpiper 12-Mar 30-Mar 3-May 19-May
Yellow-throated Vireo 12-Mar 28-Mar 22-Apr
Louisiana Waterthrush 12-Mar 20-Mar 3-Apr
Gull-billed Tern 14-Mar 7-Apr 20-Apr 1-May
Sandwich Tern 14-Mar 9-Apr 19-Apr 1-May
Ash-throated Flycatcher 14-Mar 13-Apr 23-May
Lark Sparrow 14-Mar 12-Apr 2-May
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 15-Mar 26-Mar 10-May
Cliff Swallow 15-Mar 1-Apr 10-May
Marsh Wren 15-Mar 10-Apr 18-Apr 2-May
Swainson’s Hawk 16-Mar 27-Mar 17-Apr 2-May
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 16-Mar 4-Apr 28-Apr 14-May
House Wren 16-Mar 30-Mar 12-Apr 1-May
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 16-Mar 26-Mar 8-Apr 18-Apr
Hooded Warbler 16-Mar 29-Mar 20-Apr 2-May
American Avocet 17-Mar 10-Apr 20-Apr 2-May
Common Tern 17-Mar 11-Apr 20-Apr
Upland Sandpiper 19-Mar 30-Mar 13-Apr 28-Apr
Short-billed Dowitcher 19-Mar 7-Apr 20-Apr 7-May
Broad-winged Hawk 20-Mar 31-Mar 13-Apr 23-Apr

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Golden-cheeked Warbler Before 1-Mar 13-Mar 26-Mar
Blue-winged Teal Before 1-Mar 16-Mar 5-Apr 6-May
Couch’s Kingbird Before 1-Mar 16-Mar
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck Before 1-Mar 18-Mar 24-Apr
Black-chinned Hummingbird Before 1-Mar 18-Mar 3-May
American Golden-Plover 7-Mar 18-Mar 30-Mar 2-May
Brown-headed Cowbird 2-Mar 19-Mar 29-Apr
Black-necked Stilt 8-Mar 19-Mar 21-Apr 4-May
Pectoral Sandpiper 9-Mar 19-Mar 29-Apr 16-May
Louisiana Waterthrush 12-Mar 20-Mar 3-Apr

Peaking

Species Peak Rapid Depart
Northern Flicker 9-Mar 4-Apr
Common Gallinule 10-Mar 3-May
Cooper’s Hawk 12-Mar 18-Apr
Osprey 16-Mar 25-Apr
Long-billed Curlew 16-Mar 29-Apr
Swamp Sparrow 19-Mar 26-Apr
Forster’s Tern 20-Mar 3-May
Vesper Sparrow 20-Mar 5-Apr

Departing

Species Rapid Depart
Snow Goose Before 1-Mar
Northern Pintail Before 1-Mar
Canvasback Before 1-Mar
Redhead Before 1-Mar
Ruddy Duck Before 1-Mar
American Robin Before 1-Mar
American Pipit Before 1-Mar
Harris’s Sparrow Before 1-Mar
Rusty Blackbird Before 1-Mar
Hooded Merganser 3-Mar
Killdeer 3-Mar
Fox Sparrow 3-Mar
Purple Finch 3-Mar
Western Meadowlark 7-Mar
Sandhill Crane 14-Mar
Red-tailed Hawk 15-Mar

American Woodcock

Great Plains

An unfavorable cold and northerly wind will keep migrants grounded to start the period, but as high pressure passes east on come the southerly winds for the Saturday and Sunday nights. Light to moderate movements will be widespread as these conditions arrive. The remainder of the period will see alternating favorable, marginal, and unfavorable conditions across the region, and resulting movements will be much more localized and generally lighter in these variable conditions. Birders should, however, watch for precipitation in the mid to late week time frame, particularly in the southern Plains where local concentrations may result from migrants flying into rain. This may be especially true for early migrant shorebirds and waterbirds.

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
American Golden-Plover 4-Mar 20-Mar 8-Apr
Northern Shoveler 7-Mar 19-Mar 17-Apr
Wood Duck 8-Mar 25-Mar 7-May
Gadwall 10-Mar 17-Mar 26-Mar
Blue-winged Teal 11-Mar 23-Mar 21-Apr 10-May
Greater Yellowlegs 11-Mar 20-Mar 18-Apr 3-May
Baird’s Sandpiper 12-Mar 22-Mar 23-Apr 24-May
Snowy Plover 13-Mar 19-Mar 26-Apr
Pectoral Sandpiper 13-Mar 25-Mar 12-May 28-May
Song Sparrow 13-Mar 20-Mar 30-Mar
Double-crested Cormorant 14-Mar 27-Mar 15-Apr
American White Pelican 14-Mar 21-Mar 17-Apr
Common Loon 15-Mar 23-Mar 5-Apr 10-May
Turkey Vulture 15-Mar 27-Mar 16-Apr
Brown-headed Cowbird 17-Mar 22-Apr 11-May
Pied-billed Grebe 18-Mar 3-Apr 17-Apr 2-May
Eared Grebe 18-Mar 15-Apr 27-Apr
Yellow-throated Warbler 18-Mar 1-Apr 24-Apr
Vesper Sparrow 18-Mar 2-Apr 20-Apr 4-May
Savannah Sparrow 18-Mar 15-Apr 25-Apr 8-May
White-eyed Vireo 19-Mar 3-Apr 22-May
Purple Martin 19-Mar 7-Apr 8-May
Tree Swallow 19-Mar 11-Apr 5-May

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Green-winged Teal Before 1-Mar 3-Mar 28-Mar 25-Apr
Ring-necked Duck Before 1-Mar 5-Mar 19-Mar 4-Apr
Bufflehead Before 1-Mar 8-Mar 23-Mar 6-Apr
Lesser Scaup Before 1-Mar 16-Mar 29-Mar 27-Apr
Ruddy Duck Before 1-Mar 18-Mar 5-Apr
Northern Shoveler 7-Mar 19-Mar 17-Apr
American Golden-Plover 4-Mar 20-Mar 8-Apr
Greater Yellowlegs 11-Mar 20-Mar 18-Apr 3-May
Song Sparrow 13-Mar 20-Mar 30-Mar

Peaking

Species Peak Rapid Depart
Snow Goose 7-Mar 23-Mar
Greater White-fronted Goose 8-Mar 21-Mar
Rough-legged Hawk 10-Mar 23-Mar
American Woodcock 12-Mar 22-Mar
Northern Pintail 14-Mar
Redhead 14-Mar
Sandhill Crane 17-Mar 31-Mar
Northern Harrier 18-Mar 25-Apr
Ring-billed Gull 18-Mar 2-Apr
Greater Scaup 19-Mar 13-Apr
Ring-necked Duck 19-Mar 4-Apr

Departing

Species Rapid Depart
Rusty Blackbird 12-Mar
Common Goldeneye 17-Mar
Ross’s Goose 19-Mar

West

Favorable conditions will facilitate light to moderate movements across the region to begin the forecast period this weekend. Those in the Pacific Northwest should pay particular attention to the distribution of precipitation, which may interact with migrants on the move on Saturday and Sunday nights. More marginal and locally favorable conditions are the norm for the remainder of the period during the work week, with similar local and scattered movements that will be primarily light. More isolated moderate movements are possible late in the period in portions of the Desert Southwest.

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Lucy’s Warbler 10-Mar 19-Mar 1-Apr
Bell’s Vireo 11-Mar 21-Mar 28-Apr
White-winged Dove 12-Mar 20-Apr 4-May
Hooded Oriole 13-Mar 23-Mar 30-Apr
Scott’s Oriole 14-Mar 22-Mar 28-Apr
Black-chinned Hummingbird 15-Mar 4-Apr 16-May
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 15-Mar 22-Apr 3-Jun
Western Kingbird 17-Mar 27-Apr 17-May
Cliff Swallow 17-Mar 15-Apr 21-Jun
Whimbrel 18-Mar 19-Apr 28-Apr 10-May

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Broad-billed Hummingbird 2-Mar 16-Mar 28-Mar
Painted Redstart 6-Mar 17-Mar 26-Apr
Lucy’s Warbler 10-Mar 19-Mar 1-Apr
Rufous Hummingbird 2-Mar 20-Mar 10-Apr
Lincoln’s Sparrow 2-Mar 20-Mar 3-Apr 23-Apr

Peaking

Species Peak Rapid Depart
Northern Flicker 13-Mar 27-Mar
Lesser Scaup 14-Mar 28-Apr

Departing

Species Rapid Depart
Northern Pintail 14-Mar
Red-shouldered Hawk 15-Mar
Bald Eagle 18-Mar
Ring-billed Gull 20-Mar

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

Photographs courtesy of Ian Davies.

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