Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 8-15 2015 May

Regional Migration Analysis The Cornell Lab May 15, 2015

Magnolia Warbler © Ian Davies

Magnolia Warbler © Ian Davies

Continental Summary

Several widespread pulses of moderate to heavy flights featuring White-rumped Sandpiper, Stilt Sandpiper, Ruddy Turnstone, Common Nighthawk, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Alder Flycatcher, Blackpoll Warbler, and Mourning Warbler punctuated the week across the East, while mid week moderate to locally heavy flights along the eastern Rockies were highlights of the period’s assemblage of Black Tern, Least Flycatcher, Dusky Flycatcher, Plumbeous Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, MacGillivray’s Warbler, and Blue Grosbeak in the West.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered light to moderate flights were the norm for the first half of the period, as more marginal conditions that included unfavorable winds, cooler temperatures and light precipitation moved into the region. By Tuesday and Wednesday many birds stayed on the ground, awaiting the arrival of more favorable conditions arriving from the West. Wednesday night saw these conditions reach the Mississippi, where moderate to heavy flights ensued. The end of the period saw these conditions spread to the Atlantic, with moderate to locally heavy flights from the central Mississippi River valley east through DelMarVa and the New York Metropolitan area.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Wood-Pewee 104% 17.3
Blackpoll Warbler 90% 12.8
Magnolia Warbler 63% 18.3
American Redstart 49% 27.4
Swainson's Thrush 41% 13.1
Red-eyed Vireo 31% 31.2
Chestnut-sided Warbler 28% 18.2
Tennessee Warbler 28% 12.2
Ruddy Turnstone 156% 1.3
Dunlin 51% 4.5
Veery 25% 11.7
Common Nighthawk 77% 1.9
Indigo Bunting 15% 22.7
Cedar Waxwing 33% 7.4
Blackburnian Warbler 25% 9.7
Semipalmated Sandpiper 63% 2.5
Acadian Flycatcher 30% 5.2
Common Tern 48% 4
Semipalmated Plover 45% 3.8
Eastern Kingbird 16% 23.4
Scarlet Tanager 14% 20
Common Yellowthroat 11% 39
Bobolink 25% 5.1
Black Tern 57% 0.8
Great Crested Flycatcher 13% 25.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -68% 2.8
White-throated Sparrow -50% 11.2
Blue-headed Vireo -47% 4
Yellow-rumped Warbler -33% 20.2
Hermit Thrush -39% 2.8
Purple Finch -40% 3.1
Palm Warbler -32% 9.4
Pine Siskin -38% 3.6
Swamp Sparrow -24% 7.5
Rusty Blackbird -65% 0.2
Sharp-shinned Hawk -41% 1
Eastern Whip-poor-will -58% 0.4
Red-breasted Merganser -43% 1
Green-winged Teal -50% 0.6
Pectoral Sandpiper -38% 0.7
Dark-eyed Junco -40% 1.2
Wilson's Snipe -47% 0.5

Alder Flycatcher © Ian Davies

Alder Flycatcher © Ian Davies

Gulf Coast and Southeast

This week saw two primary dichotomies dividing the region, one geographic and one temporal. To the west of the Mississippi River, moderate to locally heavy flights were frequency during the period despite several large areas of passing, intense precipitation. To the east, heavier flights occurred, particularly after the passage of a very early tropical disturbance. In general these larger flights occurred earlier in the week, whereas primarily light to moderate flights prevailed later in the period (after the passage of a substantial cold air mass to the north and east).

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 29% 12.2
Eastern Wood-Pewee 20% 12.8
Alder Flycatcher 114% 0.8
Wilson's Warbler 25% 3
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 58% 0.7
Chimney Swift 12% 26.2
Western Kingbird 21% 6.2
Mourning Warbler 38% 0.9
Common Nighthawk 18% 6.2
Canada Warbler 19% 2.4
Acadian Flycatcher 13% 6.2
Willow Flycatcher 18% 0.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Palm Warbler -96% 0.1
Cape May Warbler -85% 0.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler -81% 0.6
Lesser Yellowlegs -52% 2
Black-throated Blue Warbler -49% 2.7
Blackpoll Warbler -48% 3.5
Black-and-white Warbler -41% 5.7
Solitary Sandpiper -46% 2.3
Savannah Sparrow -60% 1
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -38% 2.9
Pine Siskin -51% 1.4
White-crowned Sparrow -60% 0.5
Bobolink -49% 1.7
Northern Waterthrush -45% 1.8
White-throated Sparrow -53% 0.6
Marsh Wren -77% 0.2
Greater Yellowlegs -45% 1.5
Least Sandpiper -33% 4.6
Black-headed Grosbeak -72% 0.2
Brown Pelican -31% 4.8
Ovenbird -30% 4.5
Pectoral Sandpiper -46% 0.8
Nashville Warbler -45% 1

Wilson's Warbler © Ian Davies

Wilson’s Warbler © Ian Davies

Great Plains

The weekend’s passing disturbance brought scattered moderate to heavy flights before its arrival and migration stoppage in its wake. A cool air mass with unfavorable winds kept birds on the ground for the days to follow, but a change came and quickly by Tuesday night. Warmer air and southerly winds ushered widespread moderate to heavy flights across the region, with some of these flights continuing on sequent nights; however, these subsequent flights did not have the extent nor the intensity of the mid week flight, as another disturbance dropping rain compartmentalized migration to the northern and then southern Plains states on Wednesday and Thursday nights, respectively.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wilson's Warbler 123% 9.8
Eastern Wood-Pewee 72% 12.6
Tennessee Warbler 55% 19.3
Ovenbird 112% 8
White-rumped Sandpiper 123% 7.5
Yellow Warbler 42% 44.5
Common Nighthawk 97% 7.2
Least Flycatcher 38% 26.7
Common Yellowthroat 47% 18
Northern Waterthrush 63% 8.6
Stilt Sandpiper 87% 5.9
Bobolink 73% 6.3
Black-and-white Warbler 35% 14.2
Palm Warbler 57% 7.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 26% 17.4
Pine Siskin 46% 8.8
Blue-headed Vireo 50% 7.1
Bank Swallow 59% 6.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lesser Yellowlegs -37% 5.4
Pectoral Sandpiper -36% 3
Savannah Sparrow -31% 5.5
Baird's Sandpiper -36% 3.4
Green-winged Teal -43% 2.6
Marbled Godwit -42% 1.9
Bufflehead -55% 0.9
Northern Shoveler -16% 13
American Wigeon -27% 4.2
Horned Grebe -74% 0.2
American Coot -17% 14.2
Ring-necked Duck -47% 1.3
American Avocet -19% 4.8
Greater Scaup -79% 0.1

{ PHOTO }

West

A generally quiet weekend for the region, aside from the light to locally moderate flights in California and the Desert Southwest, became more lively during the beginning of the work week. Monday night saw more extensive light to moderate flights across the southern tier of the region, including moderate to locally heavy flights in and to the east of the central and southern Rockies. This area to the east of the Rockies continued to produce on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, although region wide movements were generally less intense through the remainder of the period. Note that eastern Montana ended the week with a moderate to heavy bang.

Swainson's Thrush © Ryan Schain

Swainson’s Thrush © Ryan Schain

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swainson's Thrush 52% 6.6
Western Wood-Pewee 42% 11.6
Yellow Warbler 27% 24.4
Cedar Waxwing 35% 8.4
Dusky Flycatcher 43% 3.9
Western Tanager 19% 16.5
Gray Catbird 146% 1.2
Chipping Sparrow 20% 13.4
Black-headed Grosbeak 17% 24.3
Least Flycatcher 117% 1.1
Common Grackle 19% 7.7
MacGillivray's Warbler 26% 4.3
Black Tern 104% 1.2
Bullock's Oriole 14% 16.1
Broad-tailed Hummingbird 18% 7.8
Clay-colored Sparrow 45% 1.8
Lazuli Bunting 16% 9.7
Warbling Vireo 14% 13.2
Olive-sided Flycatcher 20% 3.7
House Wren 10% 18.4
Plumbeous Vireo 29% 3.3
Blue Grosbeak 22% 2.7
Barn Swallow 10% 26.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Least Sandpiper -59% 1.1
Semipalmated Plover -62% 0.5
Western Sandpiper -42% 1.2
Dunlin -43% 1
Lesser Yellowlegs -68% 0.2
Greater Yellowlegs -44% 1.2
Golden-crowned Sparrow -55% 0.9
Greater White-fronted Goose -61% 0.3
Long-billed Dowitcher -29% 2.3
Bufflehead -33% 2.5
Marbled Godwit -26% 1.3
Varied Thrush -56% 0.3
Common Loon -25% 1.6
Horned Grebe -57% 0.2
Solitary Sandpiper -53% 0.2
Brant -33% 0.6
Black-throated Gray Warbler -16% 4.1
American Pipit -44% 0.4

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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