Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 21-28 August 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Aug 21, 2015

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Continental Summary

Favorable conditions early in the period will bring moderate movements featuring Northern Pintail, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Wilson’s Warbler, and Western Tanager in parts of the West, particularly the Pacific Northwest, while a passing cold front early in the week will bring moderate to locally heavy movements of Warbling Vireo, Red-eyed Vireo, Veery, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Ovenbird, Northern Waterthrush, Blackburnian Warbler, Chestnut-sided Warbler, and Rose-breasted Grosbeak in its wake before southerly flow slows down the system in the East.

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A cold front moving across the Appalachians and eventually off into the Atlantic will bring a pulse of moderate flights for Friday and Saturday nights. However, the second, stronger frontal boundary will bring more favorable conditions to more of the region, and moderate to heavy flights will follow suite on Monday and Tuesday. Some areas of the region will see these favorable conditions persist into the end of the week, particularly in portions of the Appalachians, in New England, and along the Atlantic Coast. Where favorable conditions persist through the week, moderate flights will follow the initial large pulses from earlier in the week.

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Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The hot, humid, and unstable conditions of previous days gradually fade with the passage of two frontal boundaries through the region. The first brings favorable conditions for moderate flights in the southern Appalachians and along the coastal plain of the Carolinas on Friday and Saturday nights; the second brings such conditions to a broad swath of the region, primarily away from the Gulf of Mexico’s influence, for Monday through Wednesday nights; these conditions will facilitate moderate to locally heavy movements.

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Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

Great Plains

Moderate to heavy flights will occur on Saturday and Sunday nights across much of the region as low pressure clears out and northerly and northwesterly winds prevail. These favorable conditions begin to dissipate rapidly, with concurrent reductions in migration intensity, and much less favorable conditions prevail as the period continues. Locally light to moderate flights may persist in some pockets of marginal and favorable conditions by the end of the week, but migration will be mostly light and isolated across the region.

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Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

West

Favorable winds for the Pacific Northwest on Friday night and for the northern half of the region on Saturday night will bring light to moderate flights to many areas in these parts of the region. But things become noticeably less favorable by the end of the weekend and through the work week, as southerly flow and warmer temperatures creep north. After the weekend, most movements will be local and light, with exceptions in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in the latter half of the forecast period.

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Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Peaking Arrivals

Beginning Departures

Ending Departures

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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