Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 11-18 September 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 18, 2015

Screenshot 2015-09-18 13.11.25

Continental Summary

A busy week of migration featured light to moderate flights across much of the West, featuring Cackling Goose, Dunlin, Black Tern, Vaux’s Swift, Tree Swallow, Black-headed Grosbeak and Fox Sparrow, and heavy flights to begin and end the period in the East, featuring some huge movements of American Redstart among other species such as Broad-winged Hawk, Chimney Swift, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, American Pipit, Palm Warbler, Northern Parula and White-crowned Sparrow.

Want to know more about what species are on the move this week? Visit our forecast page.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and Southeast
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A large flight occurred to kick off the weekend, including some heavy and very heavy flights in the Mississippi River valley and the coast of New England. These flights included a massive movement of birds at the Tribute in Light in New York City. Flights decreased in intensity and extent as high pressure returned to the region, with movements becoming more localized. But this decrease did not occur until after a massive morning flight event occurred in Cape May (see this site). Scattered light to moderate movements persisted in the region for the remainder of the period. Note, however, that Thursday night saw the next big pulse of heavy and very heavy flights in the Upper Midwest behind a low pressure system’s precipitation.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Parula 72% 10.5
Palm Warbler 67% 7.2
Black-throated Green Warbler 40% 14.3
Sharp-shinned Hawk 65% 6.1
Black-throated Blue Warbler 50% 6.5
Broad-winged Hawk 74% 4.5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 82% 2.1
Blackpoll Warbler 24% 8.4
Magnolia Warbler 21% 18.1
Philadelphia Vireo 34% 5.2
Pine Warbler 46% 5.7
Yellow-rumped Warbler 38% 5.1
Northern Flicker 15% 34.8
Lincoln's Sparrow 77% 1.7
Northern Mockingbird 28% 11.1
Chimney Swift 30% 18.2
Black-and-white Warbler 20% 15.7
Nashville Warbler 18% 9.6
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 20% 11
Prairie Warbler 54% 2.6
Merlin 27% 5.3
Eastern Phoebe 17% 20.4
Brown Thrasher 21% 6.9
American Pipit 231% 0.5
Carolina Wren 17% 23.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -77% 0.3
Baird's Sandpiper -63% 0.5
Green Heron -32% 6.8
Least Sandpiper -30% 6.1
Warbling Vireo -28% 6.7
Solitary Sandpiper -34% 3
Semipalmated Sandpiper -31% 3.7
Spotted Sandpiper -30% 4.2
Western Sandpiper -62% 0.3
Purple Martin -82% 0.1
American Golden-Plover -46% 1.5
Short-billed Dowitcher -44% 0.9
Killdeer -18% 14.1
Sora -40% 0.9
Semipalmated Plover -24% 5.1
Barn Swallow -25% 6.6
Caspian Tern -39% 3
Olive-sided Flycatcher -45% 0.4
Black Tern -56% 0.3
Great Crested Flycatcher -23% 3.9
Eastern Kingbird -29% 2.2
Sandhill Crane -32% 2.4
Lesser Yellowlegs -19% 6.1
Stilt Sandpiper -26% 1.4
White-rumped Sandpiper -42% 0.5

Screenshot 2015-09-18 13.15.29

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A busy weekend of moderate to heavy flights across the region included some particularly active movements in the southern Appalachians, the southeastern coastal Plain and Florida, and also the western Gulf Coast. But by Monday night, moderate and locally heavy movements were much reduced in their spatial extents, a pattern that largely continued for the remainder of the week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Redstart 84% 22.1
Magnolia Warbler 91% 9.3
Palm Warbler 766% 3
Black-throated Blue Warbler 180% 5
Tennessee Warbler 83% 7.2
Common Yellowthroat 60% 13.8
Swainson's Thrush 103% 4.5
Cape May Warbler 159% 3.3
Gray Catbird 59% 11.7
Northern Waterthrush 66% 7
Black-and-white Warbler 39% 14.7
Ovenbird 65% 7.2
Philadelphia Vireo 307% 1.2
Eastern Phoebe 32% 14.7
Yellow-throated Warbler 46% 9.5
Merlin 141% 1.3
Scarlet Tanager 49% 5.6
Northern Flicker 44% 8.5
Veery 58% 3.5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 353% 0.6
Northern Parula 33% 15.7
Blue-headed Vireo 86% 2
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 68% 2.1
Brown Thrasher 24% 16

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Nighthawk -58% 2.2
Upland Sandpiper -75% 0.4
Black Tern -52% 1.1
Ring-billed Gull -53% 1.1
Baird's Sandpiper -59% 0.4
Wilson's Snipe -69% 0.3
Pectoral Sandpiper -41% 2.4
Barn Swallow -29% 11.5
Spotted Sandpiper -32% 4.6
Semipalmated Sandpiper -36% 2.4
Western Sandpiper -29% 2.3
Mississippi Kite -39% 1.3
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -40% 1.2
Lesser Yellowlegs -28% 2.7
Western Kingbird -67% 0.2
Semipalmated Plover -21% 4.4
Least Sandpiper -18% 7.1
Least Tern -42% 0.8
Green Heron -16% 11
Western Wood-Pewee -74% 0.1
Killdeer -15% 16.7
Lark Sparrow -28% 1.7
Bank Swallow -25% 1.7
Dickcissel -43% 1.3
Bell's Vireo -51% 0.3

Screenshot 2015-09-18 13.10.09

Great Plains

Pulses of movements occurred within the region during much of the period, with few nights of consistently favorable conditions across the Plains. Early weekend saw flights in the southern Plains of light to moderate intensity; the northern and central Plains saw similarly intense movements during much of the workweek. In general, conditions aloft included precipitation and marginal winds, making most movements scattered and more localized. However, Thursday night saw a more extensive and intense movement, the first widespread flight of the week for the region with moderate to heavy flights prevailed from the Dakotas south through Oklahoma.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-crowned Sparrow 509% 3.2
Chimney Swift 106% 18.9
White-throated Sparrow 86% 4
Dark-eyed Junco 116% 2.4
Lincoln's Sparrow 55% 6.4
Eastern Phoebe 43% 16.3
Yellow-rumped Warbler 36% 9.2
Nashville Warbler 29% 13.3
Chestnut-collared Longspur -1565% 0.8
Eastern Bluebird 27% 19.5
Turkey Vulture 24% 39.9
Harris's Sparrow -564% 0.4
Indigo Bunting 25% 10.1
Magnolia Warbler 17% 3.3
Osprey 23% 6.9
Summer Tanager 25% 4.8
White-eyed Vireo 44% 2.5
Eastern Meadowlark 105% 3.9
Tennessee Warbler 24% 3.8
Blue Jay 11% 51.5
Northern Flicker 12% 33.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Baltimore Oriole -69% 3.4
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -95% 0.1
Black Tern -67% 1.8
American Avocet -83% 0.6
Eastern Kingbird -64% 3.7
Mississippi Kite -61% 2.5
Bell's Vireo -71% 0.8
Cliff Swallow -70% 1.4
American Coot -57% 4.4
Western Kingbird -88% 0.3
Willow Flycatcher -75% 0.4
Olive-sided Flycatcher -48% 1.9
Green-winged Teal -66% 1.2
Pectoral Sandpiper -51% 2.1
Semipalmated Sandpiper -48% 1.8
Forster's Tern -45% 2.7
Common Nighthawk -30% 6.1
Warbling Vireo -29% 9.5
Blue-winged Teal -24% 11.5
Yellow Warbler -36% 8.1
Spotted Sandpiper -35% 4.2
Barn Swallow -17% 25.1
Wilson's Phalarope -39% 1.9
Black-crowned Night-Heron -61% 0.6
Orchard Oriole -67% 0.5

Screenshot 2015-09-18 13.04.29

West

Light to moderate flights were apparent from the Pacific Coast east across the region through the Rockies to kick off the weekend. By Sunday night, however, most movement was centered west of the Sierras or east of the Rockies, as less favorable conditions including precipitation arrived in the intermontane west and Desert Southwest. Another later week pulse of scattered light to moderate flights, similar interrupted across the region by precipitation, was a harbinger of a more extensive end of the week movement that saw light to moderate flights return to much of the region.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Sparrow 78% 3.3
Eared Grebe 34% 6
Fox Sparrow 53% 2.3
Cackling Goose 151% 0.6
Red-shouldered Hawk 52% 7.1
Dunlin 99% 0.7
American Wigeon 23% 5.4
Say's Phoebe 16% 8.9
White-crowned Sparrow 11% 17.3
Long-billed Dowitcher 27% 4.4
Green-winged Teal 20% 8.7
Vaux's Swift 92% 5
Tree Swallow 81% 3.7
Ring-necked Duck 29% 1.7
Merlin 30% 1.4
Ruddy Duck 14% 5.7
Western Grebe 14% 5
Parasitic Jaeger 27% 1.5
Horned Grebe 28% 1.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-headed Grosbeak -51% 2.4
Virginia's Warbler -67% 0.3
Common Nighthawk -65% 0.4
Chipping Sparrow -35% 6.3
Western Wood-Pewee -28% 4.8
Willow Flycatcher -32% 3
Olive-sided Flycatcher -45% 0.6
Western Tanager -26% 9.7
Black Tern -74% 0.1
Warbling Vireo -30% 6.7
Rufous Hummingbird -34% 2
Hooded Oriole -44% 1.3
Gray Catbird -35% 1.6
Western Kingbird -36% 1.9
Cassin's Vireo -38% 1.2
Broad-tailed Hummingbird -29% 2.6

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY