Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 25 September – 2 October 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 02, 2015

Screenshot 2015-10-02 13.30.16

Dark-eyed (Slate-colored) Junco, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Light to moderate flights in the West, particularly the northern extents, featured American Wigeon, Ring-necked Duck, Northern Flicker, Varied Thrush, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco, while the East saw moderate to very heavy flights from the middle of the period that featured Tundra Swan, Northern Pintail, Golden-crowned Kinglet, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Lincoln’s Sparrow, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered light to locally heavy movements occurred across the region from the weekend through the early portion of the work week, as patches of favorable and marginal conditions allowed some birds to take flight. Changes arrived by Monday night in the Upper Midwest, where heavy and very heavy flights occurred; Tuesday saw these flights extend to the east behind the frontal passage. Wednesday and Thursday nights’ flights were extensive, though tempered to primarily moderate to locally heavy intensities. Note the exception in New England, where the effects (primarily extensive precipitation) of a strong low pressure center kept birds grounded.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-crowned Sparrow 174% 4.4
Dark-eyed Junco 92% 6.8
Golden-crowned Kinglet 114% 5
Fox Sparrow 715% 0.8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 36% 10.4
Harris's Sparrow 345% 0.6
White-throated Sparrow 24% 15
Dunlin 46% 2.1
Hermit Thrush 51% 3
Pine Siskin 124% 0.9
Brown Creeper 38% 3.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler 19% 20
Orange-crowned Warbler 48% 2.1
Rusty Blackbird 60% 1.1
American Pipit 40% 2.1
Swamp Sparrow 21% 9
Ring-necked Duck 79% 0.8
Winter Wren 35% 2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-eyed Vireo -59% 5
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -48% 5.7
Broad-winged Hawk -65% 1.3
Chestnut-sided Warbler -60% 1.5
American Redstart -40% 8.7
Scarlet Tanager -54% 2.1
Philadelphia Vireo -61% 1.1
Yellow-throated Vireo -68% 0.6
Common Yellowthroat -34% 15.3
Black-and-white Warbler -43% 5.8
Wilson's Warbler -61% 0.9
Eastern Wood-Pewee -40% 6.2
Magnolia Warbler -37% 8
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -77% 0.4
Cedar Waxwing -29% 14.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -38% 5.2
Cape May Warbler -52% 1.7
Swainson's Thrush -41% 5.7
White-eyed Vireo -50% 1.2
Black-throated Green Warbler -39% 7.5
Gray Catbird -24% 33.9
House Wren -31% 8.4
Bay-breasted Warbler -47% 2
Least Flycatcher -63% 0.5
Northern Parula -36% 5

Screenshot 2015-10-02 13.29.00

American Kestrel, Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to heavy flights graced the western reaches of the region, primarily in Texas, for the first half of the period. Movements farther east were generally more localized and of lesser intensities. But Tuesday night saw region wide flights, varying from moderate movements in the southeastern coastal Plain to heavy flight in the Mississippi River valley and over Texas. The intensities of the flights increased on Wednesday night in the Florida Panhandle and in the southern Appalachians. Note that Thursday night saw continued heavy flights along parts of the Gulf Coast, while the Carolinas experienced a full halt to the system in extensive precipitation.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 62% 3.5
Peregrine Falcon 39% 2.8
American Kestrel 26% 7.8
House Wren 36% 4.1
Orange-crowned Warbler 42% 1.3
Lincoln's Sparrow 90% 0.6
Gray Catbird 16% 17
Yellow-rumped Warbler 52% 0.8
Brown Thrasher 17% 19.4
Northern Flicker 15% 10.9
Gray-cheeked Thrush 31% 1.5
Nelson's Sparrow -2650% 0.2
Northern Mockingbird 13% 52.8
Sharp-shinned Hawk 22% 2.2
Boat-tailed Grackle 13% 9.8
Savannah Sparrow 41% 0.6
Palm Warbler 11% 5.6
Northern Harrier 16% 2.1
Northern Pintail 43% 0.5
Ruddy Duck 38% 0.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Baltimore Oriole -54% 2.3
Great Crested Flycatcher -52% 1.9
Cape May Warbler -46% 1.3
Yellow Warbler -35% 5.5
Yellow-throated Vireo -36% 2.6
Least Flycatcher -52% 0.8
Purple Martin -67% 0.4
Hooded Warbler -33% 2.9
Bank Swallow -79% 0.1
Veery -37% 1.2
Red-eyed Vireo -24% 9.3
Bobolink -54% 0.4
Summer Tanager -26% 7.3
Canada Warbler -60% 0.3
Blackburnian Warbler -36% 1.3
Eastern Kingbird -31% 2
Black Tern -66% 0.3
Orchard Oriole -60% 0.3
Acadian Flycatcher -32% 2
Blue-winged Warbler -39% 0.8
Black-and-white Warbler -20% 7.6

Screenshot 2015-10-02 13.27.43

Tundra Swans, Ian Davies

Great Plains

A light to moderate pulse in the central and southern Plains kicked off the weekend, followed by heavier migration on Sunday night in the northern reaches of the region. After a frontal boundary pushed through the region on Monday night, with some moderate to heavy flights in tow, much larger and heavier movements occurred on Tuesday night; these were primarily in the central and southern Plains. Following this large pulse of birds, the remainder of the period was generally quiet, with much more localized and lower intensity movements.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco 83% 10.4
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 73% 24.4
White-throated Sparrow 80% 12.3
Yellow-rumped Warbler 49% 27.7
Golden-crowned Kinglet -1379% 0.9
Tundra Swan 348% 0.9
Orange-crowned Warbler 28% 20.2
Nashville Warbler 34% 16.9
Lesser Scaup 55% 1.7
American Pipit 52% 1.7
Sharp-shinned Hawk 24% 5.3
Osprey 17% 11.9
Harris's Sparrow 44% 2.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow Warbler -94% 0.1
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -54% 4.2
Common Nighthawk -60% 2.7
Cliff Swallow -88% 0.3
Red-eyed Vireo -47% 2.8
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -58% 1
Black Tern -65% 0.6
Wilson's Phalarope -93% 0.1
Least Flycatcher -51% 0.7
Bank Swallow -74% 0.3
Warbling Vireo -37% 2
Say's Phoebe -67% 0.3
Black-and-white Warbler -44% 1.3
Barn Swallow -25% 13
Cooper's Hawk -24% 6.6
Philadelphia Vireo -41% 1.1
Yellow-headed Blackbird -44% 1
Semipalmated Plover -54% 0.5
Yellow-throated Vireo -59% 0.2

Screenshot 2015-10-02 13.26.54

Cackling Goose, Brian Sullivan

West

Light to moderate flights kicked off the weekend, with the most intense of these occurring in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Saturday night. Beginning on Monday night, light to moderate flights continued in many areas across the region, gradually diminishing over the course of the week as conditions became less favorable (and scattered precipitation increased). By the end of the week, movements were substantially more localized to portions of the Pacific Northwest, central California, and portions of the southern Rockies.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Sparrow 33% 14.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler 25% 31.1
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 29% 13.3
Dark-eyed Junco 22% 23.1
Fox Sparrow 29% 7.5
Ring-necked Duck 28% 3.7
White-throated Sparrow 119% 1
Varied Thrush 36% 2.4
American Wigeon 14% 7.8
White-crowned Sparrow 7% 33.5
Eurasian Wigeon 315% 0.3
Cackling Goose 19% 2.3
Western Meadowlark 11% 8.3
Northern Flicker 9% 33.2
Spotted Towhee 9% 21.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Western Tanager -42% 3.7
Caspian Tern -53% 1.1
MacGillivray's Warbler -49% 0.9
Wilson's Warbler -35% 6.4
Willow Flycatcher -50% 0.8
Vaux's Swift -36% 1.1
Gray Catbird -67% 0.2
Barn Swallow -32% 8.6
Warbling Vireo -33% 3.1
Brewer's Sparrow -41% 1.2
Hooded Oriole -73% 0.2
Nashville Warbler -44% 0.7
Black-headed Grosbeak -54% 0.6
Violet-green Swallow -27% 1.9
Lazuli Bunting -46% 0.7
Blue Grosbeak -48% 0.6
Hammond's Flycatcher -52% 0.3
Dickcissel -65% 0.1
Pacific-slope Flycatcher -30% 2.3
Green-tailed Towhee -31% 1.5
Swainson's Thrush -31% 1.7
Yellow Warbler -24% 9.3

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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