Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 2-9 October 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 09, 2015

Screenshot 2015-10-09 14.42.08

Hermit Thrush, Ryan Schain.

Continental Summary

A week of light to moderate movements in the southern half of the West featured Red-necked Grebe, Mew Gull, Hermit Thrush, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Townsend’s Warbler, and White-crowned Sparrow, while moderate to heavy flights in the East, particularly in the Upper Midwest, Appalachians, and central Plains, featured Cooper’s Hawk, American Coot, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Black-throated Blue Warbler, Eastern Towhee, Fox Sparrow, Swamp Sparrow, and White-crowned Sparrow.

Wondering what species are going to move this week? Check out our forecast for the next 7 days.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered moderate and local heavy flights occurred last weekend as low pressure finally departed from the region. With the departure of unsettled weather, the beginning of the work week featured more widespread light to moderate flights, with some locally heavier Virginia flights. Toward the middle of the week, more widespread moderate flights expanded to cover many areas, with some continued heavy flights in the Great Lakes region. In addition, many coastal areas experienced a prolonged period of northeasterly flow, bringing moderate flights to these areas for several days. However, much less favorable conditions ended the week, and Thursday night saw much reduced migration for most of the region away from the coastal fringe and Upper Mississippi River valley.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swamp Sparrow 91% 19.1
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 64% 26.1
Northern Mockingbird 117% 17
Yellow-rumped Warbler 58% 41.1
White-throated Sparrow 52% 31.5
Song Sparrow 53% 43.4
White-crowned Sparrow 65% 13.5
Eastern Towhee 81% 16.5
Golden-crowned Kinglet 49% 16.5
Hermit Thrush 94% 8.1
White-rumped Sandpiper 224% 2.6
Red-winged Blackbird 52% 23.4
Chipping Sparrow 57% 16.7
Savannah Sparrow 59% 11.2
Eastern Bluebird 59% 16.7
Blue-headed Vireo 78% 8.3
Dark-eyed Junco 44% 13.4
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 53% 12.4
Field Sparrow 54% 7.3
Fox Sparrow 154% 1.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 70% 4.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bay-breasted Warbler -65% 0.5
Short-billed Dowitcher -66% 0.2
American Redstart -38% 4.2
Magnolia Warbler -33% 3.9
Stilt Sandpiper -55% 0.3
Chestnut-sided Warbler -58% 0.5
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -34% 2.3
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -44% 2.4
Black-and-white Warbler -33% 2.6
Northern Waterthrush -50% 0.6
Snowy Egret -24% 2.5
Osprey -24% 5.9
Least Flycatcher -82% 0.1
Hooded Warbler -71% 0.1
Wood Thrush -38% 0.8
Marbled Godwit -73% 0.1
Mourning Warbler -94% 0
Eastern Wood-Pewee -23% 3.5
Yellow-throated Warbler -76% 0.1
Wilson's Warbler -46% 0.3
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -45% 1.5

Screenshot 2015-10-09 14.43.10

Eastern Towhee, Ian Davies

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate and locally heavy flights occurred primarily west of the Alabama River drainage and scattered across Florida last weekend. Precipitation shut down flights in other areas, particularly in the southern Appalachians and southeastern coastal Plain. By Monday, heavier flights came to the Appalachians, and movements in the region generally became more eastern in their distribution. This pattern continued through the remainder of the period, as birds moved through the Appalachians, into the southeast, and out of Florida. By the end of the week, primarily light to locally moderate movements spanned the region.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 465% 6.4
Palm Warbler 112% 15.4
Northern Flicker 100% 21.5
Black-throated Blue Warbler 308% 5.3
Gray Catbird 41% 28.3
Yellow-rumped Warbler 215% 2.8
Savannah Sparrow 203% 2.4
Eastern Phoebe 39% 22.1
Eastern Bluebird 35% 22.1
Cape May Warbler 522% 3.2
White-throated Sparrow 1914% 0.8
Song Sparrow 73% 5.5
Swamp Sparrow 381% 1.1
Golden-crowned Kinglet 771% 0.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 47% 7.9
Gray-cheeked Thrush 141% 2.9
Swainson's Thrush 76% 8.4
Marsh Wren 78% 2.8
Pine Warbler 41% 12
Magnolia Warbler 61% 11.1
Blue-headed Vireo 166% 2.6
American Redstart 60% 19.3
Bobolink 99% 1.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wilson's Warbler -47% 1.6
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher -85% 0.1
Yellow Warbler -42% 2.7
White-winged Dove -31% 7.8
Warbling Vireo -83% 0.1
Eastern Kingbird -60% 0.6
Cattle Egret -36% 6.4
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -22% 13.7
Piping Plover -47% 0.8
Blue-winged Teal -33% 5.3
Prothonotary Warbler -94% 0
Lark Sparrow -39% 0.9
Black-bellied Plover -28% 3
Red Knot -54% 0.3
Black-chinned Hummingbird -57% 0.3
Dickcissel -45% 0.7
Marbled Godwit -36% 1

Cooper's Hawk, Ian Davies

Cooper’s Hawk, Ian Davies

Great Plains

The Plains experienced local light to moderate migration for the first half of the period, including more extensive flights in the central Plains on Sunday night and the northern Plains on Monday night. The big change came on Tuesday night, when more extensive flights occurred across the region including heavy migration in the central Plains. Another large flight occurred to end the period on Thursday night, when heavy flights were aloft over the central and southern Plains. Note that some of these heavy flights were shut down by precipitation associated with a passing frontal boundary in Kansas.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Greater White-fronted Goose -1314% 2
Herring Gull 891% 2.2
Fox Sparrow 86% 4.6
Swamp Sparrow 74% 5.5
Cooper's Hawk 75% 11.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 32% 7.2
Brown Creeper 56% 4.6
Baird's Sandpiper 169% 2.8
Dark-eyed Junco 30% 15.3
American Coot 35% 16.9
Yellow-headed Blackbird 206% 1.9
White-throated Sparrow 20% 16.7
Marbled Godwit 4644% 0.9
Winter Wren 64% 2
Sanderling 137% 1.5
Purple Finch 52% 2.4
Sedge Wren 31% 5.7
Harris's Sparrow 34% 5.1
Black-bellied Plover 92% 1.4
California Gull 263% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Broad-winged Hawk -99% 0
Summer Tanager -76% 1.1
Eastern Wood-Pewee -93% 0.2
Peregrine Falcon -62% 1.4
Belted Kingfisher -29% 9.9
Indigo Bunting -35% 4.4
Bonaparte's Gull -89% 0.1
Barn Swallow -32% 8.2
Osprey -27% 7
Caspian Tern -86% 0.1
Wilson's Warbler -55% 0.7
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -26% 6.3
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -49% 0.4
Black-and-white Warbler -96% 0
Swainson's Thrush -66% 0.5
Warbling Vireo -67% 0.4
House Wren -19% 10.5
Northern Parula -52% 0.7
Solitary Sandpiper -93% 0
Green Heron -60% 0.7
Common Yellowthroat -26% 6.4
Northern Flicker -13% 40.8
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -38% 1.5

Red-necked Grebes, Chris Wood

Red-necked Grebes, Chris Wood

West

The Central Valley of California and the Great Basin saw the primary action for the region this past week, as light to moderate flights their highlighted otherwise localized flights. Localized light to moderate flights continued through the middle of the week in many areas. But Wednesday night saw more extensive movements in the Desert Southwest, where similarly intense but slightly more extensive flights continued to end the period. Note that portions of the eastern front of the Rockies saw heavier flights to end the period, associated with large movements occurring in the favorable conditions in the Great Plains.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 42% 23
Hermit Thrush 41% 6.3
Mew Gull 55% 2.4
Red-necked Grebe 76% 1.8
Pine Siskin 20% 7.7
Rough-legged Hawk 143% 0.5
Northern Shrike 312% 0.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler 15% 38.5
Marbled Murrelet 159% 0.8
Northern Mockingbird 15% 13.1
Ruddy Turnstone 71% 1
Franklin's Gull 64% 1.2
Ring-necked Duck 17% 4.4
White-crowned Sparrow 13% 39.9
Arctic Tern 62% 0.7
Northern Flicker 10% 39.1
Black-throated Gray Warbler 14% 6
Townsend's Warbler 18% 9.5
Anna's Hummingbird 11% 28.2
Thayer's Gull 162% 0.3
Herring Gull 23% 2.1
Black Phoebe 14% 28

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Vesper Sparrow -37% 1.4
Black-chinned Hummingbird -48% 0.7
Willow Flycatcher -88% 0.1
Turkey Vulture -26% 15.6
Lesser Yellowlegs -36% 0.9
Swainson's Hawk -31% 1.2
Yellow-green Vireo -88% 0
Mountain Bluebird -35% 1.6
Western Sandpiper -29% 2.2
Bell's Vireo -59% 0.2
Elegant Tern -20% 2.5
Yellow Warbler -16% 6.4
Lazuli Bunting -52% 0.3
Barn Swallow -22% 5.4
Swainson's Thrush -34% 0.8

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