Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 25 March – 1 April 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 01, 2016

Northern Flicker (Yellow-shafted). Charles Shields/Macaulay Library. 1 Apr 2016. eBird S28677970

Northern Flicker (Yellow-shafted). Charles Shields/Macaulay Library. 1 Apr 2016. eBird S28677970

Continental Summary

The light to moderate movements featuring Common Loon, Double-crested Cormorant, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Wilson’s Warbler, and Black-headed Grosbeak  along the Pacific Coast and in the Desert Southwest highlighted the period’s migration in the West, while the East featured American White Pelican, Osprey, Least Sandpiper, Solitary Sandpiper, Chimney Swift, Northern Flicker, Eastern Kingbird, Barn Swallow, Chipping Sparrow scattered light to moderate flights, most consistent in the Gulf states.

Curious what birds will move next Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Saturday’s extensive light to locally moderate flights, mostly west of the coast and east of the Mississippi River, were the most obvious migration highlights for the first half of the period. A strong frontal passage that finally moved out of the region by Monday was the primary culprit, keeping most birds grounded in its wake. But by Monday night the next round of more favorable conditions were in place in the Upper Midwest, facilitating locally light to moderate movements. These continued on Tuesday night, and then shifted to the Appalachians and coast by Wednesday night. This shift was a function of another approaching frontal boundary, producing favorable southerly and southwesterly flow as it advanced east. Thursday night saw traces of migration, which were mostly light and scattered and interestingly distributed between the first lines of precipitation moving off the coast and the more organized boundary leading a cool air mass.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 185% 1.5
Chipping Sparrow 84% 7.8
Blue-winged Teal 57% 9.6
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 68% 4.3
Louisiana Waterthrush 140% 1.3
Northern Flicker 37% 24.9
Snowy Egret 343% 0.7
Osprey 39% 8.4
Tree Swallow 34% 18.9
Vesper Sparrow 204% 0.8
Great Egret 53% 3.3
Purple Martin 100% 1.2
Brown Thrasher 38% 3.8
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 70% 1.5
Eastern Phoebe 27% 23.4
Caspian Tern 305% 0.3
Barn Swallow 109% 0.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 28% 17.9
Lesser Yellowlegs 64% 1.5
Golden-crowned Kinglet 22% 10.1
Yellow-throated Warbler 93% 0.6
Greater Yellowlegs 41% 2.5
Pine Warbler 37% 4.3
Glossy Ibis 174% 0.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tundra Swan -45% 0.8
Snow Goose -44% 0.8
Iceland Gull -59% 0.2
Common Goldeneye -28% 2.7
American Wigeon -24% 4.1
Hooded Merganser -24% 6.6
Ring-necked Duck -20% 10.1
Redhead -24% 3
Eurasian Wigeon -70% 0.1
Canvasback -25% 1.4
Lesser Scaup -21% 4.6
Northern Pintail -25% 1.8
Bufflehead -18% 12.5
American Tree Sparrow -16% 7.3
Common Merganser -15% 7.4
Black Scoter -30% 0.7
Greater White-fronted Goose -26% 0.6
Gadwall -13% 6.5
Ring-billed Gull -12% 19.4
Ross's Goose -45% 0.1
Rough-legged Hawk -39% 0.4
Greater Scaup -18% 1.8

Eastern Kingbird. Judy Ferris/Macaulay Library. 24 Mar 2016. eBird S28519738

Eastern Kingbird. Judy Ferris/Macaulay Library. 24 Mar 2016. eBird S28519738

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to moderate movements were the norm this period across the region, despite the passage of several rounds of precipitation associated with cold fronts. Earlier flights were generally less intense, particularly on Friday and Saturday nights. However, Wednesday and Thursday nights saw more intense, moderate flights, particularly in Texas and Florida. Note, especially, the inbound migrants over the Florida Keys and Peninsula on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chimney Swift 155% 5.3
Eastern Kingbird 224% 2.8
Least Tern 188% 2.5
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 93% 5.5
Hooded Warbler 88% 4.2
Sandwich Tern 109% 3.6
Worm-eating Warbler 131% 1.8
Great Crested Flycatcher 56% 5.5
Red-eyed Vireo 55% 2.7
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 34% 6.1
Yellow-throated Vireo 43% 3.9
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 22% 20.7
Prairie Warbler 36% 5.2
Magnificent Frigatebird 90% 1.9
Solitary Sandpiper 49% 2.5
Swainson's Hawk 68% 1.5
Franklin's Gull 147% 0.8
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 23% 9.5
Clay-colored Sparrow 139% 0.9
Black-capped Vireo 848% 0.4
Lark Sparrow 60% 2.2
Brown-headed Cowbird 19% 16.8
Orchard Oriole 143% 0.6
Least Sandpiper 29% 6.5
Royal Tern 25% 7.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Kinglet -43% 1.1
Bufflehead -35% 1.7
Long-billed Curlew -58% 0.4
Sandhill Crane -29% 2.8
American Kestrel -18% 6.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler -17% 25.1
Glossy Ibis -21% 4.2
Dark-eyed Junco -32% 4.7
Northern Flicker -17% 7.1
Wood Stork -25% 3.9
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -22% 3.5
Pied-billed Grebe -15% 12.3
Whooping Crane -68% 0.1
Rusty Blackbird -50% 0.2
Winter Wren -41% 0.6
Song Sparrow -15% 8.3
Eastern Phoebe -12% 12.5
Brown Creeper -36% 0.4
Northern Harrier -20% 4.1
Horned Grebe -36% 0.7

American White Pelican. Jack Foreman/Macaulay Library. 26 Mar 2016. eBird S28617303

American White Pelican. Jack Foreman/Macaulay Library. 26 Mar 2016. eBird S28617303

Great Plains

Unfavorable conditions, including a mix of cold temperatures, precipitation, and northerly winds that followed two strong frontal passages, kept a lid on migration for most of the week. Some signs of flight occurred on Monday night after the weekend’s storms and cool, when the northern and central Plains experienced light to locally moderate movements. But these signs were brief, as the remainder of the period saw a return of unfavorable conditions, including unfavorable winds and more precipitation.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-winged Teal 60% 30.2
Lesser Yellowlegs 105% 5.2
Baird's Sandpiper 98% 6.1
Tree Swallow 48% 9.5
Yellow-throated Warbler 280% 1.6
Wilson's Snipe 66% 6.2
Pectoral Sandpiper 167% 2.9
Franklin's Gull 78% 2.6
Hermit Thrush 130% 2.2
Barn Swallow 65% 2.8
Osprey 496% 0.7
Common Grackle 18% 32.4
American White Pelican 43% 6.9
Northern Shoveler 19% 28.3
Solitary Sandpiper -1034% 0.5
Eared Grebe 48% 2.3
Wood Duck 25% 10.5
Mourning Dove 17% 33.4
Double-crested Cormorant 18% 15.8
American Golden-Plover 46% 2.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Snowy Owl -86% 0.3
Ring-necked Duck -41% 9.5
Snow Goose -36% 4.3
Horned Lark -34% 9.8
Ross's Goose -58% 0.6
Sandhill Crane -24% 4.3
Bald Eagle -23% 7.6
Greater Scaup -42% 1.4
Ruddy Duck -28% 9.2
Gadwall -20% 18.8
Common Redpoll -37% 1.2
Northern Shrike -58% 0.3
Western Meadowlark -20% 13.1
Redhead -15% 9.3
Cackling Goose -29% 1.6
Greater White-fronted Goose -20% 3.5
Sprague's Pipit -97% 0
American Wigeon -14% 12.2
Rough-legged Hawk -26% 1.1
Common Goldeneye -19% 3.7
Pine Siskin -23% 3.2

Wilson's Warbler. Matt Davis/Macaulay Library. 25 Mar 2016. eBird S28542055

Wilson’s Warbler. Matt Davis/Macaulay Library. 25 Mar 2016. eBird S28542055

West

Light to moderate flights were aloft on the weekend from the Pacific Northwest south and east through California and the Desert Southwest. But a rather strong low pressure system moving across the West, responsible for substantial snow and rain, shut down migration on Monday and Tuesday. With this system’s passage to the east, migration returned along the Pacific Coast as more favorable winds west of the Sierras allowed light to locally moderate flights. Movements were mostly coastal through the end of the period, with birds aloft in particular over western Oregon and Washington and the Central Valley of California.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Grackle 254% 1.6
Black-headed Grosbeak 313% 1.2
Osprey 51% 6.1
Franklin's Gull 601% 0.9
Orange-crowned Warbler 35% 11.3
Western Kingbird 47% 3
Bullock's Oriole 56% 2.4
Violet-green Swallow 32% 10.6
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 39% 3.4
Black-throated Gray Warbler 57% 1.7
Barn Swallow 24% 5.5
Wilson's Warbler 37% 2.8
Cliff Swallow 25% 4.8
Bonaparte's Gull 60% 1.3
Brown Creeper 29% 5.5
Common Loon 44% 2.7
Caspian Tern 33% 2
Double-crested Cormorant 17% 17.6
Brant 73% 1.8
Warbling Vireo 37% 1.7
Scott's Oriole 65% 0.8
Pelagic Cormorant 49% 3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tundra Swan -43% 0.5
Heermann's Gull -51% 0.2
Mountain Chickadee -22% 3.6
Greater White-fronted Goose -26% 1.2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -18% 12.6
Canvasback -21% 2.3
Northern Pintail -16% 4.4
Cattle Egret -32% 0.4
Black Vulture -39% 0.3
Ferruginous Hawk -35% 0.4
Vesper Sparrow -24% 1
Pacific Loon -23% 0.5
Herring Gull -26% 1.3
Rock Wren -19% 1.5
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher -23% 1.5
Loggerhead Shrike -12% 1.7
Northern Harrier -11% 7.7
White-faced Ibis -25% 0.9
American Wigeon -8% 12.4
Eurasian Wigeon -21% 0.5
Common Goldeneye -8% 6.9

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY