Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 1-8 April 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 08, 2016

Spotted Sandpiper. Eileen Bennett/Macaulay Library. 5 Apr 2016 eBird S28758385

Spotted Sandpiper. Eileen Bennett/Macaulay Library. 5 Apr 2016. eBird S28758385

Continental Summary

Moderate movements including White-faced Ibis, Swainson’s Hawk, Nashville Warbler, MacGillivray’s Warbler, Lazuli Bunting, and Black-headed Grosbeak highlighted the period in the West, particularly along the Pacific Coast and in the Desert Southwest, while moderate to locally heavy movements featuring Spotted Sandpiper, Yellow-billed Cuckoo, Chimney Swift, Red-eyed Vireo, Cliff Swallow, Northern Parula, and Blue Grosbeak graced the southern reaches of the East.

Curious to know what species will be on the move in the coming week? Check out the forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A much cooler than normal air mass took up residence in the region to begin the week, at times associated with precipitation and extensive precipitation at that. This all but shut down migration for most areas, with the only hints of light to locally moderate flights on Sunday night in the Midwest. Similarly distributed movements occurred in the same areas on Tuesday night, again in stark contrast with a generally unfavorable suite of conditions elsewhere in the region. A strong frontal passage ended the period, basically the unfavorable conditions through the work week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow 163% 3.2
Hermit Thrush 119% 4.7
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 106% 6
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 97% 4.3
Common Loon 80% 8.3
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 57% 7.4
Northern Parula 679% 0.5
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 71% 3.2
Chipping Sparrow 33% 11.4
Palm Warbler 82% 1.2
Snowy Egret 85% 1.4
Caspian Tern 110% 0.8
American Pipit 101% 1.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler 38% 6.7
Savannah Sparrow 46% 2.4
Yellow-throated Warbler 63% 1.2
Great Egret 35% 4.6
Spotted Sandpiper 396% 0.2
Little Blue Heron 167% 0.2
Chimney Swift 490% 0.1
Bonaparte's Gull 35% 4.3
Fox Sparrow 32% 7.7
Cliff Swallow 210% 0.2
Double-crested Cormorant 22% 12.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Woodcock -44% 0.8
Eastern Bluebird -16% 12.2
Canvasback -36% 0.8
Tundra Swan -59% 0.3
Eastern Meadowlark -18% 4.9
American Wigeon -21% 3.2
Red-shouldered Hawk -20% 2.9
Harlequin Duck -77% 0
Gadwall -17% 5.2
Ring-necked Duck -13% 8.9
Northern Pintail -35% 1.2
Killdeer -13% 14.8
Great Horned Owl -25% 1.2
Greater White-fronted Goose -56% 0.3
Common Goldeneye -27% 1.8
Snowy Owl -65% 0.1
Eastern Phoebe -14% 19.5
Sandhill Crane -16% 3.9
Turkey Vulture -8% 24.9

Swainson's Warbler. Lee Dunn/Macaulay Library. 25 Mar 2016. eBird S28535377

Swainson’s Warbler. Lee Dunn/Macaulay Library. 25 Mar 2016. eBird S28535377

Gulf Coast and Southeast

The passage of a strong cold front kept most of the region on the lighter side of migration intensity for Friday and Saturday nights; however, extensive moderate to locally heavy flights returned on Sunday night from Brownsville north and east through the Florida Panhandle. Similar intensity and extent were apparent for movements in the region through Wednesday night. But Thursday saw the passage of another frontal boundary, significantly restricting the region’s flights to primarily coastal locations and the southeastern coastal plain. These movements in Georgia and Florida were slightly more intense, with birds taking advantage of favorable migration conditions in advance of the approaching frontal boundary. The period ended with scattered light to moderate flights, primarily in Texas and portions of the southern Appalachians.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 160% 2.2
Red-eyed Vireo 87% 6.6
Great Crested Flycatcher 70% 10.8
Orchard Oriole 122% 2.8
Eastern Kingbird 56% 5.8
Summer Tanager 72% 3.7
Chimney Swift 48% 8.7
Indigo Bunting 66% 4.3
Blue Grosbeak 197% 1.1
Swainson's Hawk 66% 3.1
Tennessee Warbler 77% 1.4
Swainson's Thrush 146% 1.1
Wood Thrush 89% 1.4
Prothonotary Warbler 44% 4.3
Brown-crested Flycatcher 972% 0.5
Least Tern 36% 4
Swainson's Warbler 155% 0.7
Black-throated Green Warbler 42% 3.3
Scarlet Tanager 149% 0.7
Solitary Sandpiper 36% 3.9
Upland Sandpiper 52% 1.9
Kentucky Warbler 93% 0.8
Hooded Warbler 17% 6.8
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 19% 11.5
White-eyed Vireo 15% 21.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Kestrel -41% 3.4
Dark-eyed Junco -34% 3.1
Hermit Thrush -30% 3.6
Golden-crowned Kinglet -65% 0.4
American Wigeon -38% 1.1
Green-winged Teal -28% 2.4
Northern Flicker -23% 5.2
Eastern Meadowlark -23% 6
Black Skimmer -31% 2.2
Northern Harrier -23% 3.2
Forster's Tern -26% 5.4
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -29% 2.3
Herring Gull -20% 3.5
Ring-necked Duck -53% 0.7
Tree Swallow -18% 10.5
Gadwall -25% 2.7
Ring-billed Gull -20% 7
American Bittern -35% 0.7
Swamp Sparrow -17% 4.4
Eastern Phoebe -15% 10.6

Broad-winged Hawk. James Rieman/Macaulay Library. 5 Apr 2016. eBird S28769302

Broad-winged Hawk. James Rieman/Macaulay Library. 5 Apr 2016. eBird S28769302

Great Plains

Locally moderate movements, first on Saturday in the northern Plains and then on Sunday in the souther Plains, were the highlights of the region’s otherwise lackluster weekend migration. Generally cold temperatures associated with the oft-mentioned anomalous polar vortex kept migrants grounded in most places. Monday night saw the first break in conditions, allowing widespread light and locally moderate flights across the Plains. But this break in the doldrums was brief, as another passing low pressure system ushered in a new wave of cool air and northerly flow unfavorable for the season’s movers.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swainson's Hawk 2086% 3.7
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 475% 4.1
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 137% 6.4
Cliff Swallow 223% 3.9
Brown Thrasher 75% 8.4
Chipping Sparrow 67% 7.8
Fish Crow 76% 7.6
Northern Mockingbird 43% 16.3
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 96% 4.2
Cattle Egret 1436% 1.3
Northern Parula 214% 1.6
Barn Swallow 59% 6.1
American Goldfinch 29% 22.4
Franklin's Gull 61% 4.9
White-faced Ibis -1687% 0.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 29% 19.5
Forster's Tern 884% 0.7
Snowy Egret 234% 1
Osprey 94% 2.2
Lark Sparrow 209% 1.3
Broad-winged Hawk 307% 0.8
Baird's Sandpiper 36% 7.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 31% 9
Vesper Sparrow 36% 5.4
American Bittern 435% 0.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Herring Gull -68% 1
Ring-necked Duck -31% 7.8
Pine Siskin -54% 1.9
Dark-eyed Junco -21% 27.4
Tundra Swan -48% 1.2
Bufflehead -22% 9
Greater Scaup -52% 0.7
Common Goldeneye -38% 1.9
American Tree Sparrow -38% 2.7
Common Redpoll -63% 0.4
Redhead -21% 7.4
Red-tailed Hawk -12% 23.1
Merlin -40% 1
Snowy Owl -83% 0.1
American Kestrel -18% 9.8
Northern Pintail -20% 6.7
Common Merganser -30% 2.3
Greater White-fronted Goose -30% 2.4
Ruddy Duck -18% 8.7
Lesser Scaup -16% 10.9
Rusty Blackbird -66% 0.1
Green-winged Teal -12% 14.5
Horned Lark -12% 9.3

Nashville Warbler. Tony Battiste/Macaulay Library. 28 Mar 2016. eBird S28606953

Nashville Warbler. Tony Battiste/Macaulay Library. 28 Mar 2016. eBird S28606953

West

Portions of the Pacific Coast and Desert Southwest were quite active during this period, with light to moderate flights in many areas along the coast and in the southern deserts. In particular, the Central Valley of California south and east through Arizona showed consistent movements on the weekend. Many of these flights extended through the period, although Wednesday and Thursday nights saw precipitation shut migration down in some portions of the Desert Southwest. Also of interest were light to moderate movements, first on Tuesday night and continuing and intensifying through Thursday night, in the Pacific Northwest. Additionally, widespread light movements were apparent in many other areas of the West to end the work week, for example in the central and southern Rockies.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-headed Grosbeak 145% 3.4
Brown-headed Cowbird 88% 5.3
Common Grackle 64% 3
Common Yellowthroat 39% 8.9
Swainson's Hawk 72% 3.1
Barn Swallow 52% 7.7
White-faced Ibis 98% 2.1
Yellow-headed Blackbird 53% 2.9
Nashville Warbler 194% 0.9
Western Kingbird 39% 4.9
Greater Yellowlegs 28% 6.5
Black-chinned Hummingbird 52% 3.9
American Avocet 34% 5.2
Bullock's Oriole 34% 3.9
Savannah Sparrow 24% 7.4
Osprey 26% 7.7
Dusky-capped Flycatcher 87% 0.7
Caspian Tern 34% 3.1
MacGillivray's Warbler 289% 0.3
Killdeer 15% 19.8
Yellow Warbler 36% 2.9
Wilson's Snipe 29% 3.1
Lazuli Bunting 97% 0.5
Wilson's Warbler 32% 3.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Costa's Hummingbird -35% 1.5
Hermit Thrush -28% 2.6
Hooded Merganser -29% 2.7
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -23% 9.5
Common Goldeneye -18% 5
Varied Thrush -28% 1.3
Dark-eyed Junco -12% 23.5
Long-tailed Duck -68% 0.1
Northern Shrike -73% 0.1
Herring Gull -29% 0.9
American Tree Sparrow -90% 0
Tundra Swan -65% 0.2
Red-shouldered Hawk -13% 4.1
Black-throated Sparrow -18% 1.6
Double-crested Cormorant -11% 14.7
Fox Sparrow -15% 2.6
Red-tailed Hawk -5% 24.1

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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