Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 22-29 April 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Apr 29, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 1.00.43 PM

Black-and-white Warbler. Derek Gibbons/Macaulay Library. 16 Apr 2016. eBird S29274829

Continental Summary

Light to moderate flights, primarily in the Desert Southwest and the eastern Rockies, were the highlights of the week in the West and featured Wilson’s Phalarope, Vaux’s Swift, Western Wood-Pewee, Hammond’s Flycatcher, Brown-crested Flycatcher, Warbling Vireo, Yellow Warbler, Hermit Warbler, Summer Tanager, Western Tanager, and Lark Sparrow, while moderate to heavy flights featuring Mississippi Kite, Willet, Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Western Kingbird, Gray Catbird, Bay-breasted Warbler, Black-throated Blue Warbler, Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Blue Grosbeak, Dickcissel, and Baltimore Oriole were extensive in many areas of the East.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Light to moderate movements on the fringes of the region on Friday night gradually intensified and became more extensive by Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. However, a quickly passing cold front shut down most movements by Tuesday night, with the exception of light flights in the Upper Midwest an locally moderate and heavy flights in Virginia. Similarly scattered flights occurred for the remainder of the period, largely distributed in areas where precipitation did not shut down movements and winds were slightly more favorable than forecast. This pattern of movements was particularly evident in the Ohio River Valley.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Baltimore Oriole 2267% 7.5
Yellow Warbler 393% 17.3
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 3426% 7.9
Gray Catbird 703% 18.9
Nashville Warbler 1144% 5
Wood Thrush 375% 8.4
Northern Waterthrush 389% 5.8
Warbling Vireo 503% 8.1
Indigo Bunting 674% 5.8
Black-throated Green Warbler 416% 5.9
Blue-winged Warbler 467% 5.3
Common Yellowthroat 183% 13.3
Orchard Oriole 380% 4.8
Black-and-white Warbler 196% 11.3
House Wren 124% 20.2
Chimney Swift 135% 11.2
Great Crested Flycatcher 631% 4.1
Black-throated Blue Warbler 2774% 2.3
Scarlet Tanager 322% 4.5
Red-eyed Vireo 204% 6.3
Ovenbird 207% 8.6
Swainson's Thrush 1937% 2.3
Spotted Sandpiper 160% 8.2
Eastern Kingbird 206% 5.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Kinglet -59% 1.3
Dark-eyed Junco -47% 6.7
Bufflehead -46% 3.6
Northern Shoveler -47% 2.7
American Tree Sparrow -63% 0.9
Brown Creeper -45% 2.4
Ring-necked Duck -51% 2
American Coot -37% 4.6
Green-winged Teal -40% 3.1
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -33% 4.2
Lesser Scaup -46% 1.5
Wilson's Snipe -41% 2.4
Fox Sparrow -53% 0.3
Blue-winged Teal -30% 6.8
Ruddy Duck -38% 1.9
American Wigeon -54% 0.7
Pied-billed Grebe -27% 4.1
Red-breasted Merganser -35% 2.3
Northern Gannet -71% 0.1
Gadwall -37% 1.9
Rusty Blackbird -33% 2.3
Sandhill Crane -33% 3.4
Horned Grebe -32% 1

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 12.59.14 PM

Great Crested Flycatcher. Charles Lyon/Macaulay Library. 24 Apr 2016. eBird S29213262

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to heavy movements were aloft primarily west of the Mississippi River on Friday and Saturday nights in advance of a more widespread regional moderate to heavy flight on Sunday. Similar intensity and extent continued on Monday and Tuesday nights. An approaching cold front arrived on Wednesday, but its effects were limited as it became disorganized upon approach to the Gulf Coast; moderate and locally heavy flights continued in many areas. The period ended with primarily moderate flights west of the Mississippi River and more locally intense flights in the coastal Carolinas, Georgia, and portions of the Florida Peninsula.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Mississippi Kite 252% 5.8
Yellow Warbler 88% 8.3
Dickcissel 97% 4.7
Magnolia Warbler 91% 4
Bay-breasted Warbler 225% 1.3
Bobolink 93% 2.1
Great Crested Flycatcher 31% 25.4
Western Kingbird 49% 4.5
Least Flycatcher 137% 1.2
Yellow-breasted Chat 42% 5.6
Chestnut-sided Warbler 46% 4.6
Chimney Swift 25% 19.5
Painted Bunting 33% 9.2
Acadian Flycatcher 41% 3.6
White-rumped Sandpiper 89% 0.7
Groove-billed Ani 454% 0.4
Eastern Wood-Pewee 25% 7.6
American Redstart 28% 10
Yellow-billed Cuckoo 29% 9.2
Red-eyed Vireo 21% 19.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 17% 11.4
Eastern Kingbird 21% 14.7
Canada Warbler 57% 0.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -52% 4.1
Worm-eating Warbler -50% 3.1
White-throated Sparrow -35% 8.6
Swamp Sparrow -48% 1.5
Caspian Tern -47% 1.6
Pied-billed Grebe -40% 3.6
Merlin -62% 0.6
Blue-winged Teal -30% 7.7
Marbled Godwit -59% 0.6
Forster's Tern -35% 4
Blue-winged Warbler -41% 2
Sedge Wren -61% 0.5
Brown Pelican -29% 9.1
Belted Kingfisher -32% 4.2
Hermit Thrush -65% 0.4
Orange-crowned Warbler -47% 1.2
Prairie Warbler -32% 4.9
Sora -35% 2.4
Royal Tern -31% 5.2
Marsh Wren -36% 2.3
Yellow-headed Blackbird -57% 0.7
Palm Warbler -29% 6.4
Lincoln's Sparrow -33% 2.3
Northern Shoveler -45% 1.3

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 12.58.37 PM

Blue Grosbeak. Clancy Deel/Macaulay Library. 27 Apr 2016. eBird S29242817

Great Plains

Moderate to locally heavy flights spanned the region on Friday and Saturday nights but generally came to a quick end on Sunday with the passage of a strong frontal boundary; some light to moderate flights lingered in the southern Plains. A return of moderate flights to the central and southern Plains on Monday night was also a flash in the pan, as intense storms associated with another frontal boundary shut down the system on Tuesday. The remainder of the period saw scattered light to locally moderate flights in the northern and southern extremes of the region, as conditions for widespread flights were not favorable.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Baltimore Oriole 430% 17.3
Great Crested Flycatcher 912% 10.2
Western Kingbird 560% 10.5
Swainson's Thrush 419% 11.9
Nashville Warbler 1063% 9.8
Indigo Bunting 706% 9.3
Dickcissel 830% 5.6
Yellow Warbler 12174% 5.8
Eastern Kingbird 235% 15.7
Clay-colored Sparrow 387% 6
Gray Catbird 1515% 4.4
Red-eyed Vireo 223% 8.3
Warbling Vireo 136% 9.9
House Wren 110% 14.7
Tennessee Warbler 1797% 2.9
Summer Tanager 276% 5.9
Orchard Oriole 504% 3.7
Willet 164% 7
Black-and-white Warbler 241% 6.4
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 336% 5.2
Blue Grosbeak 4919% 2.7
Orange-crowned Warbler 64% 14.1
Palm Warbler 328% 2.7
Bell's Vireo -710% 1.9
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 2224% 1.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Dark-eyed Junco -77% 1.2
Wilson's Snipe -63% 1.8
Fox Sparrow -96% 0.1
Ring-necked Duck -62% 2.1
Gadwall -40% 8.3
Northern Shoveler -31% 15.9
Western Meadowlark -37% 11.7
American Coot -30% 16.8
Green-winged Teal -37% 5.4
American Wigeon -42% 3.7
Say's Phoebe -67% 0.7
Bufflehead -47% 2.5
Brown Creeper -70% 0.5
Lesser Scaup -39% 4.1
Northern Harrier -40% 3.2
Greater Roadrunner -59% 0.6
Vesper Sparrow -35% 4.2
Pied-billed Grebe -23% 10.3
Double-crested Cormorant -18% 15.8
Rock Wren -73% 0.1
Ruddy Duck -28% 5.9
California Gull -67% 0.2
Mallard -12% 28

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 12.58.06 PM

Western Wood-Pewee. Jeff Bray/Macaulay Library. 25 Apr 2016. eBird S29199517

West

Scattered precipitation kept most movements of migrants similarly scattered and light for the first days of the period. Note, however, the moderate flights occurring east of the Rockies on Friday night. Tuesday night saw the first more intense flight, primarily in California and the Desert Southwest, where light to moderate movements were underway. But these flights never reached greater intensity or extent elsewhere in the region during the period, as conditions for migration remained generally marginal or unfavorable. There were, however, light to moderate flights in portions of Montana and the southern Rockies to end the work week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Vaux's Swift 190% 5.9
Western Tanager 124% 6.4
Western Wood-Pewee 151% 3.2
Spotted Sandpiper 108% 6.8
Bank Swallow 139% 3.3
Lazuli Bunting 66% 4.5
Brown-crested Flycatcher 169% 1.4
Brown-headed Cowbird 40% 16.2
Wilson's Warbler 41% 13.7
Warbling Vireo 45% 5.8
Yellow Warbler 48% 8.5
Wilson's Phalarope 88% 2.1
Black-headed Grosbeak 41% 11.2
Barn Swallow 30% 21.2
Lark Sparrow 42% 5.5
Dusky Flycatcher 115% 1.5
Hermit Warbler 88% 1.6
Townsend's Warbler 55% 3.3
Green-tailed Towhee 57% 3.2
Hammond's Flycatcher 136% 1.8
Summer Tanager 55% 2.8
Yellow-breasted Chat 54% 2.5
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 31% 15.1
Cliff Swallow 25% 14.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Greater Yellowlegs -38% 3.5
Bufflehead -30% 7.3
Golden-crowned Sparrow -27% 5.3
Marbled Godwit -36% 2
American Wigeon -21% 6.8
Brant -37% 0.7
Ring-necked Duck -19% 5.3
Green-winged Teal -18% 7.6
Common Goldeneye -32% 1.7
Common Loon -26% 2.9
Greater Scaup -33% 0.8
American Bittern -50% 0.6
Greater White-fronted Goose -37% 0.8
Northern Shoveler -15% 10.5
White-crowned Sparrow -13% 19.2
Black-bellied Plover -26% 1.2
Pinyon Jay -49% 0.3
Lesser Scaup -16% 4.6
Mountain Bluebird -18% 2.8
Wilson's Snipe -23% 2.1
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -17% 5.2
Northern Pintail -17% 3.5
Herring Gull -44% 0.3
Surfbird -43% 0.2
Cackling Goose -19% 1.5

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY