Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 2-9 September 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 09, 2016

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Northern Parula. Mike Bailey/Macaulay Library. eBird S31455590

Continental Summary

Moderate to heavy flights were peppered across the nation and featured Sharp-shinned Hawk, Veery, Swainson’s Thrush, Northern Parula, Orange-crowned Warbler, Mourning Warbler, Fox Sparrow, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco during this past forecast period, with more widespread and regional movements generally limited by a few extreme weather events in the Desert Southwest and the Atlantic Seaboard.

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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Widespread moderate flights were the norm across much of the region to begin the weekend, gradually diminishing in intensity and extent through the beginning of the work week. Hermine’s arrival kept a generally easterly flow, facilitating coastal flights particularly in the mid Atlantic. During the work week, increasing temperatures and generally calmer flow away from the immediate New York and New England ocean coasts allowed light to moderate movements to continue. However, these were generally more local than regional. By Thursday night, an approaching frontal boundary slowly moving east through the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio River valley spawned moderate to heavy flights to its west while locations farther east were generally significantly less active.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Parula 62% 5.4
Swainson's Thrush 70% 5.5
Magnolia Warbler 32% 11.9
Palm Warbler 149% 2.4
Black-throated Green Warbler 34% 7.3
Bay-breasted Warbler 38% 3.4
Sharp-shinned Hawk 56% 3.3
Blackpoll Warbler 51% 3.7
Black-throated Blue Warbler 34% 3.8
Red-breasted Nuthatch 25% 12.1
Chestnut-sided Warbler 30% 8.3
Yellow-throated Vireo 34% 4.2
Tennessee Warbler 30% 5.8
Philadelphia Vireo 52% 2.1
Merlin 34% 4
Scarlet Tanager 31% 4.8
Cape May Warbler 31% 2.9
American Redstart 15% 18.5
Wilson's Warbler 40% 3
White-eyed Vireo 30% 4.6
Gray-cheeked Thrush 148% 0.6
Nashville Warbler 30% 5
Common Yellowthroat 13% 19.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -74% 0.6
Baltimore Oriole -39% 4.7
Eastern Kingbird -52% 3.1
Horned Lark -50% 0.9
Purple Martin -47% 1.3
Barn Swallow -27% 12.6
Stilt Sandpiper -37% 1.6
Baird's Sandpiper -37% 1.5
Marbled Godwit -59% 0.3
Tree Swallow -20% 10.9
Short-billed Dowitcher -34% 2.2
Semipalmated Sandpiper -20% 7.5
Red Knot -41% 0.6
Orchard Oriole -97% 0
Little Blue Heron -34% 1.2
Least Sandpiper -17% 10.7
Spotted Sandpiper -22% 6
Least Tern -53% 0.5
Bank Swallow -32% 1.5
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron -37% 0.7
Piping Plover -42% 0.4
Caspian Tern -21% 4.3
Cliff Swallow -39% 0.8
Great Crested Flycatcher -17% 5.4
Osprey -12% 13

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Veery. Jeff O’Connell/Macaulay Library. eBird S31486714

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to locally heavy flights followed the passage of Hermine across the region, with great extents and intensities on Friday night and diminishing returns thereafter. Note, Hermine brought a number of typically cyclone-entrained or driven species seabirds inland in Florida and elsewhere in the region (see this and this). The decrease in migration activity continued through the work week to the end of the period, as less favorable southerly flow and warmer and wetter air built into the region.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Veery 447% 2.2
Red-eyed Vireo 53% 19.3
Magnolia Warbler 148% 2.9
Ovenbird 113% 5.6
Common Yellowthroat 64% 8
Swainson's Thrush 1220% 1
Brown Thrasher 49% 13.7
Eastern Wood-Pewee 37% 14.6
Black-and-white Warbler 41% 10.6
Golden-winged Warbler 325% 0.8
American Redstart 33% 11.9
Northern Parula 33% 14.2
Kentucky Warbler 76% 2.1
Blackburnian Warbler 58% 2.8
Yellow-throated Vireo 40% 5.9
Acadian Flycatcher 55% 4.2
Tennessee Warbler 96% 1.2
Summer Tanager 31% 10.9
Cape May Warbler 150% 0.5
Worm-eating Warbler 45% 4.2
Chestnut-sided Warbler 46% 4.5
Pine Warbler 31% 10.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Orchard Oriole -58% 1.1
Pectoral Sandpiper -52% 3.1
Mississippi Kite -45% 2
Black Tern -40% 2.3
Black-chinned Hummingbird -45% 1.1
Wilson's Snipe -77% 0.2
Barn Swallow -29% 16.3
Eastern Kingbird -30% 6.6
Western Kingbird -58% 0.4
Whooping Crane -97% 0
Least Tern -31% 2.3
Upland Sandpiper -49% 0.6
Fulvous Whistling-Duck -60% 0.2
Caspian Tern -35% 2.2
Red Phalarope -84% 0
Common Tern -42% 1.3
Sandwich Tern -30% 3.5
Solitary Sandpiper -30% 2.6
Spotted Sandpiper -17% 6.7

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Mourning Warbler. Nick Saunders/Macaulay Library. eBird S31431868

Great Plains

Away from light to locally moderate flights in the southern Plains, the weekend began quietly. But by Saturday and Sunday nights moderate to locally heavy movements took flight in the northern and central Plains with the passage of low pressure and strong storms. This pattern continued for several days though the middle of the work week, as a slow moving frontal boundary developed and pushed east, spawning moderate to locally heavy flights in its wake.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Orange-crowned Warbler 182% 5.8
Swainson's Thrush 181% 7
Yellow-rumped Warbler 207% 4.2
Red Crossbill 311% 4.2
Dark-eyed Junco 1318% 2
Brown Creeper -1603% 1.4
Nashville Warbler 65% 7.3
Merlin 128% 2.7
Lincoln's Sparrow 145% 2.2
Wilson's Warbler 45% 12.8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 201% 1.8
Hairy Woodpecker 35% 13.8
Red-breasted Nuthatch 40% 7.8
Marsh Wren 149% 1.9
Mourning Warbler 225% 2.5
Osprey 39% 6.5
Black-and-white Warbler 38% 7.5
Magnolia Warbler 43% 4
Gray Catbird 23% 17.8
American Redstart 28% 10.8
Northern Flicker 17% 29.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lark Sparrow -58% 2.2
Bell's Vireo -44% 3.1
Dickcissel -60% 1.4
Eastern Kingbird -34% 11.7
Lark Bunting -60% 0.7
Kentucky Warbler -86% 0.1
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -30% 6.3
Field Sparrow -41% 2.3
Blue Grosbeak -48% 1.4
Buff-breasted Sandpiper -74% 0.2
Baltimore Oriole -22% 13.4
Willow Flycatcher -60% 0.4
Purple Martin -39% 1.4
Barn Swallow -16% 27.2
Northern Mockingbird -28% 4.8
Orchard Oriole -51% 1
Mourning Dove -14% 52.8
Eastern Bluebird -17% 13.6
Grasshopper Sparrow -87% 0.1
Western Meadowlark -28% 4.5
Brown-headed Cowbird -43% 1.9
Eastern Meadowlark -50% 0.9

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Golden-crowned Sparrow. Cameron Eckert/Macaulay Library. eBird S31431577

West

Light to moderate flights were scattered across the region for the weekend, especially on the western perimeter from the Pacific Northwest south and east through the Desert Southwest. By Monday night these movements shifted farther east, with similarly intense flights apparent in the northern Rockies and California through the Desert Southwest. The remainder of the period saw widely scattered light to moderate flights intensify and become widespread, with the greatest intensities and extents on Thursday night. Note, especially the flights in the Desert Southwest that were moderate and locally heavy. Also, note the passage of Newton on Tuesday night, which brought intense rain and some amazing pelagic vagrants to Arizona (we will follow up with a separate post on this subject).

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 61% 7.4
Golden-crowned Sparrow 643% 1.4
Lincoln's Sparrow 50% 4.6
Vaux's Swift 45% 4.2
Orange-crowned Warbler 35% 15.2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 87% 2.4
White-crowned Sparrow 23% 10.6
Fox Sparrow 129% 1.3
Black-throated Gray Warbler 30% 6
Townsend's Warbler 47% 5
Warbling Vireo 25% 7.5
Red-necked Grebe 70% 1.2
Hermit Thrush 82% 1.3
Red-necked Phalarope 21% 4.1
Song Sparrow 10% 26.8
Hutton's Vireo 22% 3.8
Western Tanager 12% 10.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Kingbird -72% 0.5
Baird's Sandpiper -56% 2.5
Tricolored Heron -87% 0.1
Stilt Sandpiper -46% 0.6
Lesser Yellowlegs -34% 3.8
Broad-tailed Hummingbird -27% 3.5
Black-chinned Hummingbird -23% 5.1
Calliope Hummingbird -41% 0.7
Rufous Hummingbird -24% 4
Nashville Warbler -23% 2.1
Short-billed Dowitcher -36% 1.2
Cassin's Vireo -28% 1.3
Baltimore Oriole -83% 0
Semipalmated Plover -25% 4.1
Mountain Chickadee -18% 5.8
Western Sandpiper -23% 8.6
Least Sandpiper -21% 10.3
Sanderling -24% 2
Hooded Oriole -30% 1.5
Sandhill Crane -36% 0.8
Black-headed Grosbeak -22% 4.1
Pine Siskin -19% 4

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