Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 14-21 October 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 21, 2016

 

Continental Summary

Scattered light to moderate flights were the later period highlights in the West, while moderate to very heavy flights graced the later period in the East.

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Upper Midwest and Northeast

A moderate to locally heavy flight, primarily east of the Appalachians, was the highlight of the weekend action to begin the period. The days that followed saw locally moderate and isolated heavy flights, but nowhere were flights intense and extensive. However, the passage of a frontal boundary spawned moderate to locally very heavy flights on Tuesday night west of the Appalachians and more regionally widespread where precipitation was not falling by Wednesday night. As the system finally geared up and organized itself to depart the region by Friday, locally moderate to heavy flights took off to the west of the frontal boundary. To the east, heavy rain and southerly flow kept most migrants on the ground.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Snow Bunting 428% 1.5
Bonaparte's Gull 82% 4
Gadwall 53% 6.3
Eurasian Wigeon 343% 1
Bufflehead 68% 2.4
Brant 60% 3
American Tree Sparrow 50% 2.8
Ruddy Duck 36% 7.1
Short-eared Owl 722% 0.3
Hooded Merganser 56% 2.5
Common Merganser 53% 3.4
Common Loon 39% 5.4
Lesser Scaup 54% 2.1
Snow Goose 124% 1.2
Ring-necked Duck 36% 3.5
Long-tailed Duck 56% 1.1
Horned Grebe 48% 2
Great Black-backed Gull 24% 8.5
Fox Sparrow 35% 2.8
Northern Shrike 100% 0.2
Red-breasted Merganser 37% 2.1
American Wigeon 22% 4.6
Rough-legged Hawk 71% 0.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Palm Warbler -54% 5.1
Gray Catbird -63% 3.4
Common Yellowthroat -72% 1.1
Chimney Swift -76% 0.6
Eastern Phoebe -46% 8.1
Nashville Warbler -73% 0.5
Black-throated Blue Warbler -67% 0.6
House Wren -68% 0.7
Blue-headed Vireo -50% 2
Black-throated Green Warbler -86% 0.2
White-crowned Sparrow -40% 6.7
Swainson's Thrush -98% 0
Lincoln's Sparrow -48% 2.2
Blackpoll Warbler -46% 2.5
Savannah Sparrow -42% 5.2
Yellow-rumped Warbler -30% 25.1
Indigo Bunting -83% 0.2
Orange-crowned Warbler -58% 0.9
Northern Parula -95% 0
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -28% 17.6
Chipping Sparrow -28% 8.3
Pine Warbler -54% 0.8
Tennessee Warbler -60% 0.6
Magnolia Warbler -100% 0
Cape May Warbler -84% 0.1

 

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Most of the period featured scattered light to moderate flights, with isolated pockets of heavy movements. These isolated heavy flights were mostly late in the work week, associated with the approach and slow passage of a frontal boundary. But it was not until Thursday night the more widespread favorable migration conditions arrived. These were mostly west of the Mississippi River, where moderate to locally very heavy flights occurred, while more moderate and highly isolated heavy flights were apparent to the east.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Savannah Sparrow 108% 8.6
Yellow-rumped Warbler 111% 31
Hermit Thrush 109% 3.5
White-throated Sparrow 70% 11.9
Common Loon 2616% 1
Eastern Meadowlark 74% 8.5
Golden-crowned Kinglet 62% 9.3
Ring-necked Duck 126% 1.6
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 62% 23.5
Gadwall 46% 3.9
Swamp Sparrow 47% 7.8
Glossy Ibis 76% 4.2
Orange-crowned Warbler 45% 5.1
Redhead 91% 1.5
Red-breasted Nuthatch 74% 4.2
American Pipit 146% 1.1
Common Grackle 35% 18.3
Field Sparrow 46% 3.7
House Wren 24% 16.3
Winter Wren 81% 2.3
Lincoln's Sparrow 41% 3.1
Song Sparrow 22% 11.8
Brewer's Blackbird 134% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chimney Swift -81% 1.1
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -77% 1.1
Magnolia Warbler -62% 2.9
American Redstart -60% 3.5
Swainson's Thrush -76% 0.8
Scarlet Tanager -81% 0.3
Cape May Warbler -66% 1
Red-eyed Vireo -75% 0.8
Wood Thrush -76% 0.4
Tennessee Warbler -58% 2.7
Eastern Wood-Pewee -60% 2.3
White-breasted Nuthatch -51% 6.6
Hooded Warbler -76% 0.4
Black-throated Blue Warbler -62% 1.8
Chestnut-sided Warbler -82% 0.3
Yellow Warbler -84% 0.2
Gray-cheeked Thrush -83% 0.1
Ovenbird -47% 1.7
Blackpoll Warbler -67% 0.4
White-eyed Vireo -41% 6.9
Northern Parula -39% 4.6
Bay-breasted Warbler -51% 1
Summer Tanager -68% 0.5
Hairy Woodpecker -41% 2.4

 

Great Plains

After the weekend’s scattered light to moderate flights in mostly marginal migration conditions, favorable conditions arrived as low pressure drifted east through the region. Moderate to heavy flights highlighted portions of the northern and central Plains migration scene by Monday night. And Tuesday and Wednesday night saw these become more widespread and intense, albeit with a decidedly eastern Plains distribution. As the frontal boundary moved farther to the east, and the high pressure center passed over the region, migration was primarily light to moderate and almost exclusively in the eastern reaches of the central and southern Plains.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Rusty Blackbird -882% 3
Carolina Wren 121% 30
Le Conte's Sparrow 237% 8.1
Red-shouldered Hawk 184% 10.3
White-winged Dove 1021% 2.4
Dark-eyed Junco 54% 36.7
European Starling 62% 47.3
Northern Flicker 65% 48.8
House Finch 76% 26.4
Bewick's Wren 137% 3.8
Greater White-fronted Goose 77% 5.9
Killdeer 65% 30.8
Common Yellowthroat 2293% 3.2
Common Loon 102% 3.6
Song Sparrow 44% 22.3
American Goldfinch 47% 27.1
Northern Cardinal 47% 40.7
White-breasted Nuthatch 48% 23.8
Sedge Wren 190% 4.6
Eastern Bluebird 33% 29.4
Gadwall 21% 15.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
California Gull -99% 0
Surf Scoter -91% 0.2
Nashville Warbler -72% 0.8
House Wren -78% 0.5
Barn Swallow -65% 1.5
Common Merganser -80% 0.3
Turkey Vulture -47% 10.1
Eastern Phoebe -48% 3.7
Herring Gull -52% 2.9
Peregrine Falcon -94% 0
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -49% 2.1
Tundra Swan -65% 1
Indigo Bunting -67% 0.5
Horned Grebe -57% 2.3
Canvasback -56% 1.4
Snowy Egret -59% 0.9
Orange-crowned Warbler -37% 6.5
American Pipit -52% 2.2
Merlin -51% 1
Osprey -38% 3.5
Swainson's Hawk -75% 0.2
Franklin's Gull -24% 17.7
Ring-billed Gull -24% 21.3
Gray Catbird -95% 0
Great Egret -28% 7.5

 

West

Several days of scattered precipitation and generally unfavorable migration conditions yielded only highly isolated light to moderate flights across the region. By Monday night, more pockets of movements were apparent, increasing to moderate intensities in the Central Valley and Desert Southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. But to end the period, light to moderate flights were primarily restricted to the coastal mountain ranges and locally to the Desert Southwest.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-winged Dove 749% 4.8
Sandhill Crane 184% 4.8
Pinyon Jay 674% 1.2
Ferruginous Hawk 287% 2
Bufflehead 51% 5.3
White-throated Sparrow 77% 2
Dark-eyed Junco 34% 29.5
Mountain Chickadee 62% 6.2
Snow Goose 46% 1.6
Red-throated Loon 27% 1.5
Canvasback 32% 2
Lesser Scaup 25% 3.8
Black-legged Kittiwake 86% 0.2
Eurasian Wigeon 32% 0.9
Bonaparte's Gull 25% 1.6
Horned Grebe 16% 4.5
Prairie Falcon 19% 1.7
Cackling Goose 15% 4.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Brewer's Blackbird -48% 5.8
Snowy Egret -48% 5
Violet-green Swallow -87% 0.2
Orange-crowned Warbler -38% 4.9
Canada Goose -38% 13.4
Peregrine Falcon -44% 2.3
Great Egret -37% 9.7
Turkey Vulture -35% 7.9
California Gull -36% 8.1
Northern Shoveler -41% 7.1
Black-crowned Night-Heron -45% 2.5
Pygmy Nuthatch -42% 2.2
Golden Eagle -47% 0.9
Mallard -32% 22.5
Rock Wren -38% 1.8
Wood Duck -44% 2.1
Western Tanager -72% 0.2
Barn Swallow -51% 1.4
Long-tailed Duck -84% 0
Merlin -40% 1.5

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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