Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 28 October – 4 November 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 04, 2016

Long-tailed Duck. Peter Hawrylyshyn/Macaulay Library. eBird S32406018.

Long-tailed Duck. Peter Hawrylyshyn/Macaulay Library. eBird S32406018.

Continental Summary

A quiet week in the West for migration saw a few, mostly coastal pulses of light to moderate movements featuring Tundra Swan, Red Phalarope, Bonaparte’s Gull, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, American Pipit, Cedar Waxwing, and Dark-eyed Junco, while moderate to locally heavy flights associated with frontal passages featured Northern Pintail, Common Goldeneye, Long-tailed Duck, Long-billed Curlew, Northern Shrike, Sedge Wren, and American Tree Sparrow in the East.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Light to moderate flights in the mid Atlantic kicked off Friday night, followed by a pulse of mostly moderate and locally heavy flights in the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend. A similar, albeit less intense example of the same pattern followed on Monday and Tuesday night. With a frontal boundary moving across the region late in the period, a more extensive mostly moderate intensity flight ended the work week; note that most of this movement was south and west of the eastern Great Lakes.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Long-tailed Duck 70% 2.7
Hooded Merganser 43% 5.6
Common Loon 35% 8.2
Common Goldeneye 59% 1.7
Horned Grebe 38% 3.8
American Tree Sparrow 41% 5.2
Bufflehead 33% 5.1
Glaucous Gull 382% 0.2
Common Redpoll 250% 0.3
Red-throated Loon 42% 2
Black Guillemot 217% 0.3
American Goldfinch 12% 37.4
Red-breasted Merganser 31% 3.7
Black-capped Chickadee 10% 38.8
Northern Shrike 54% 0.8
Cedar Waxwing 17% 12.2
Eastern Bluebird 13% 16.8
Common Eider 30% 1.7
Franklin's Gull 68% 0.6
Downy Woodpecker 7% 38.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tree Swallow -61% 1.7
Forster's Tern -55% 0.9
Osprey -55% 1.2
Eastern Phoebe -42% 3.8
Blue-headed Vireo -63% 0.5
Chipping Sparrow -34% 5.6
Field Sparrow -31% 4.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -29% 11.2
Cattle Egret -69% 0.2
Palm Warbler -38% 2.7
Turkey Vulture -23% 15.6
Blackpoll Warbler -64% 0.5
Brant -38% 2.2
Merlin -33% 2.4
Lincoln's Sparrow -52% 0.7
Yellow-rumped Warbler -24% 16.5
Royal Tern -40% 1
White-crowned Sparrow -27% 4.9
Eastern Towhee -26% 4.4
Sharp-shinned Hawk -23% 5.4
Gray Catbird -41% 1.9
Cooper's Hawk -20% 7.3
Clay-colored Sparrow -63% 0.1

Long-billed Curlew. Chris Wood/Macaulay Library. eBird S31078652.

Long-billed Curlew. Chris Wood/Macaulay Library. eBird S31078652.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Locally moderate flights kicked off the weekend, with more intense local flights and more widespread moderate flights arriving by Sunday night in most areas. Intensities of movements dropped significantly during the course of the work week, as southerly flow and warmer temperatures built back into the region. But Thursday night saw a break in these conditions, with the return of more widespread moderate and locally heavy flights in almost all but the most southern reaches of the region.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-necked Stilt 182% 5.5
Long-billed Curlew 338% 3.4
Least Grebe 219% 4
Franklin's Gull 488% 2.7
Spotted Sandpiper 109% 6.8
White-tailed Kite 296% 2.8
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck 92% 7.3
Black Phoebe 521% 2.3
Northern Pintail 159% 4.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -69% 0.5
Northern Flicker -28% 15.4
Tundra Swan -94% 0
Blue Jay -23% 37
Red-bellied Woodpecker -20% 32.4
White-crowned Sparrow -39% 2.1
Brown Thrasher -25% 9.4
Lincoln's Sparrow -35% 2
Red-breasted Nuthatch -33% 2.3
Great Black-backed Gull -44% 0.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -25% 8.8
American Crow -17% 29.7
Pine Warbler -21% 7.8
Downy Woodpecker -15% 21.7
Northern Cardinal -13% 42.1
Indigo Bunting -22% 2.9
House Finch -15% 15.3
Brown Creeper -32% 1.2
Common Raven -38% 0.8
Prairie Warbler -32% 1.8

American Goldfinch. Jack and Shirley Foreman/Macaulay Library. eBird S32403455.

American Goldfinch. Jack and Shirley Foreman/Macaulay Library. eBird S32403455.

Great Plains

Locally moderate to heavy pulses were the norm for the entire period across the region. No region wide movements occurred, primarily because of multiple passing disturbance that were neither intense nor extensive in their extents. The heavies flights occurred in the southern Plains, on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday nights, with Thursday’s flight the most intense in particular over eastern Oklahoma.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Shrike 302% 3
American Tree Sparrow 64% 12.8
Golden Eagle 585% 1.4
American Goldfinch 29% 30.6
Greater White-fronted Goose 121% 6.1
Pacific Loon 634% 0.9
Dark-eyed Junco 21% 46.5
White-faced Ibis 88% 2
Black-crowned Night-Heron 229% 1.2
Sedge Wren 230% 2.4
Song Sparrow 16% 23.7
Herring Gull 29% 6.5
Snow Goose 31% 4.4
Red-breasted Nuthatch 19% 9.6
Purple Finch 33% 3
Common Loon 26% 4
Ferruginous Hawk 350% 1
Redhead 18% 13
Black-capped Chickadee 13% 26.3
Fox Sparrow 20% 6.8
Green-winged Teal 16% 15.9
Brown Creeper 17% 6.2
Downy Woodpecker 9% 28.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Orange-crowned Warbler -81% 0.8
Eastern Towhee -89% 0.1
Turkey Vulture -66% 2.2
Barn Swallow -92% 0.1
Osprey -41% 2.1
Fish Crow -75% 0.1
Carolina Chickadee -20% 10
Yellow-rumped Warbler -15% 17.9
Pine Siskin -63% 0.3
Clay-colored Sparrow -53% 0.5
Pectoral Sandpiper -67% 0.2
Great Egret -19% 7.5
Chipping Sparrow -23% 5.7
Blue-headed Vireo -85% 0.1
Snow Bunting -67% 0.6
Red-shouldered Hawk -18% 6.9
Black-bellied Plover -47% 0.5
Double-crested Cormorant -9% 27
Common Yellowthroat -74% 0.1
Mourning Dove -11% 16.8
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -117% -0.2
Eastern Phoebe -26% 3
Least Sandpiper -22% 3.8

Red Phalarope. Dan Murphy/Macaulay Library. eBird S32390809.

Red Phalarope. Dan Murphy/Macaulay Library. eBird S32390809.

West

Aside from the isolated moderate flights in the Pacific Northwest on Friday night, the West experienced a quiet migration weekend. Scattered precipitation and some unfavorable winds kept birds grounded in many areas. Scattered light movements aside, the next more intense flight came in California on Tuesday night reaching moderate levels. Slightly less intense but similarly distributed, more coastal, flights continued through the end of the period, most notably reaching their greatest extents on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-vented Shearwater 388% 1.4
Bonaparte's Gull 63% 3.5
American Pipit 51% 7.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 29% 27.8
Red Phalarope 122% 2
Black Oystercatcher 82% 2
American Goldfinch 30% 11.3
Bufflehead 27% 10.7
Tundra Swan 85% 0.9
Common Murre 76% 2.1
Cedar Waxwing 42% 7.8
Black Phoebe 14% 27
Anna's Hummingbird 15% 26.9
Red-breasted Sapsucker 52% 2.7
Merlin 31% 3.1
Western Bluebird 19% 9.7
American Kestrel 16% 15.2
Turkey Vulture 25% 11.7
Fox Sparrow 20% 7.4
Canada Goose 10% 22
White-throated Swift 55% 1
Dark-eyed Junco 13% 29.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lark Bunting -95% 0
Common Grackle -64% 0.2
Pigeon Guillemot -46% 0.5
White-winged Scoter -45% 1.2
Snowy Plover -48% 0.4
Northern Goshawk -71% 0.1
Sabine's Gull -74% 0.1
Red-necked Grebe -25% 1.5
Gray Catbird -55% 0.2
Lesser Yellowlegs -45% 0.3
Black Scoter -46% 0.3
Long-billed Dowitcher -21% 2
Barrow's Goldeneye -35% 0.4
Sandhill Crane -19% 2.1
Clark's Nutcracker -23% 0.7
Mountain Chickadee -14% 3.8
Caspian Tern -30% 0.6
Black-bellied Plover -15% 2.4
American White Pelican -11% 4.7
Evening Grosbeak -29% 0.4
Blue-winged Teal -18% 1.2
Redhead -14% 2.6

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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