Forecast and Analysis

22-29 May 2015 Regional Migration Forecast: late for a very important date

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab May 22, 2015

Henslow's Sparrow © Benjamin Van Doren

Henslow’s Sparrow © Benjamin Van Doren

Continental Summary

With peaks of spring movements in the rear view for most species, this week will see scattered light flights across much of the West, with moderate flights along the eastern front of the Rockies, that will feature Black Tern, Cordilleran Flycatcher, Willow Flycatcher, MacGillivray’s Warbler, and Blue Grosbeak, and moderate to heavy midweek flights where and when precipitation does not fall in the East, featuring Black-bellied Plover, Black Tern, Olive-sided Flycatcher, Alder Flycatcher, Yellow-bellied Flycatcher, and Mourning Warbler.

Wondering what birds were on the move last week? Check out our analysis!

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A cold blast to start the holiday weekend will make many migrants think twice, although moderate flights may occur if northerly and westerly winds are lighter than forecast. But by Sunday warmer air flows across the region, bringing with it widespread moderate to heavy flights. Aside from scattered precipitation in the days that follow, these conditions persist through Wednesday with similar intensity and extents of movements following suite. Although a late week frontal passage will inhibit movements in portions of the Appalachians and Northeast, the late date and need for birds to arrive on territory will keep moderate movements of migrants on the move.

Olive-sided Flycatcher © Benjamin Van Doren

Olive-sided Flycatcher © Benjamin Van Doren

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

No more for this season, but still some species peaking!

Arriving

None for this week!

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Olive-sided Flycatcher 5/5 5/12 5/22 6/1
Black-bellied Plover 5/5 5/12 5/22 6/2
Sanderling 5/6 5/13 5/22 6/3
Marsh Wren 4/23 5/5 5/22 -
Black Tern 4/30 5/9 5/22 -
Mourning Warbler 5/5 5/13 5/23 6/1
Ruddy Turnstone 5/6 5/13 5/23 6/2
Semipalmated Sandpiper 5/5 5/13 5/24 6/4
Black-billed Cuckoo 5/1 5/11 5/25 6/4
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 5/8 5/15 5/25 6/4
White-rumped Sandpiper 5/6 5/15 5/26 6/7
Red-eyed Vireo 4/27 5/9 5/26 -
Eastern Wood-Pewee 5/4 5/13 5/28 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Prothonotary Warbler 4/9 4/21 5/8 5/22
Lincoln's Sparrow 4/24 5/1 5/11 5/22
Golden-winged Warbler 4/25 5/2 5/12 5/22
Cape May Warbler 4/26 5/2 5/12 5/22
Pectoral Sandpiper 3/16 3/29 4/17 5/24
Forster's Tern 3/28 4/29 5/10 5/24
Baltimore Oriole 4/24 5/2 5/15 5/24
Merlin 3/29 4/9 4/24 5/25
Blackburnian Warbler 4/26 5/4 5/15 5/25
Tennessee Warbler 4/27 5/5 5/15 5/26
Swainson's Thrush 4/27 5/5 5/15 5/26
Gray-cheeked Thrush 4/28 5/5 5/15 5/26
Bay-breasted Warbler 4/28 5/6 5/15 5/26
Least Flycatcher 4/26 5/4 5/16 5/26
Brant - - 3/1 5/27
Bald Eagle - 3/2 3/9 5/27
Spotted Sandpiper 4/17 4/30 5/14 5/27
Least Sandpiper 4/26 5/4 5/15 5/27
Chestnut-sided Warbler 4/27 5/5 5/16 5/27
Magnolia Warbler 4/28 5/5 5/16 5/27
American Redstart 4/27 5/6 5/18 5/28
Philadelphia Vireo 5/1 5/8 5/18 5/28
Wilson's Warbler 5/1 5/8 5/18 5/28
Bank Swallow 4/16 5/1 5/17 5/29
Short-billed Dowitcher 4/30 5/8 5/18 5/29
Blackpoll Warbler 5/1 5/9 5/18 5/29
Canada Warbler 5/3 5/10 5/19 5/29

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Although bookended by some unfavorable and unseasonable conditions, this week sees generally warm and southerly flow in many areas, giving the last movements of this season the conditions to fly. Moderate flights will be the norm, with some locally heavy flights in the western Gulf Coast region during the middle of the week. Note also that, despite the late date, precipitation is forecast in many areas and may bring local concentrations of late migrant passerines and waterbirds.

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher © Ian Davies

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher © Ian Davies

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

No more for this season!

Arriving

No more for this season!

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Ash-throated Flycatcher 3/14 4/13 5/23 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Eastern Wood-Pewee 4/13 4/26 5/10 5/22
Canada Warbler 4/23 5/1 5/11 5/22
Lark Sparrow 3/14 4/12 5/2 5/23
Mourning Warbler 4/24 5/1 5/12 5/23
Olive-sided Flycatcher 4/22 5/1 5/12 5/24
Willow Flycatcher 4/26 5/4 5/15 5/26
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 4/27 5/5 5/15 5/26
White-rumped Sandpiper 4/22 5/1 5/14 5/27
Dunlin - - 4/21 5/28
Semipalmated Plover 4/6 4/15 4/26 5/29
Semipalmated Sandpiper 3/28 4/14 5/13 5/29

Great Plains

Moderate to heavy flights are likely this week during the periods of favorable winds when and where rain is absent. Several loosely organized disturbances pass through the region, with particularly unfavorable effects late in the week in the central and northern Plains; however, birds will want to move, and even marginal conditions at this time of year will likely see larger flights. Birders should watch the distribution of rain and southerly winds, as local shorebird concentrations may occur where stronger storms interact with late season and high flying migrants.

Nelson's Sparrow © Luke Seitz

Nelson’s Sparrow © Luke Seitz

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Nelson's Sparrow 5/23 6/2 6/14 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Violet-green Swallow 5/1 5/22 6/13 -
Western Wood-Pewee 5/15 5/24 6/6 -
Grasshopper Sparrow 4/6 5/26 - -

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Alder Flycatcher 5/6 5/13 5/22 6/1
Acadian Flycatcher 4/29 5/10 5/22 6/2
Common Grackle - 3/2 5/22 -
White-eyed Vireo 3/19 4/3 5/22 -
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher 5/7 5/14 5/23 6/2
Barn Swallow 4/2 4/20 5/23 -
Orchard Oriole 4/26 5/5 5/27 -
Eastern Kingbird 4/17 4/30 5/28 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Northern Waterthrush 4/24 5/1 5/11 5/22
Golden-winged Warbler 4/26 5/2 5/12 5/22
Least Sandpiper 4/17 4/28 5/9 5/23
Black-throated Green Warbler 4/23 5/1 5/12 5/23
Baird's Sandpiper 3/12 3/22 4/23 5/24
Spotted Sandpiper 4/17 4/28 5/11 5/24
Wood Thrush 4/24 5/2 5/13 5/24
Swainson's Thrush 4/24 5/2 5/13 5/24
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 4/25 5/2 5/13 5/24
Gray-cheeked Thrush 4/26 5/3 5/13 5/24
Baltimore Oriole 4/22 5/1 5/14 5/24
Least Flycatcher 4/26 5/3 5/14 5/25
Wilson's Warbler 4/27 5/4 5/14 5/26
Blackpoll Warbler 4/28 5/5 5/15 5/26
Ovenbird 4/28 5/6 5/16 5/26
Tennessee Warbler 4/27 5/5 5/15 5/27
Philadelphia Vireo 4/29 5/6 5/16 5/27
American Golden-Plover 3/4 3/20 4/8 5/28
Semipalmated Plover 4/9 4/17 4/29 5/28
Pectoral Sandpiper 3/13 3/25 5/12 5/28
Black-bellied Plover 4/28 5/7 5/16 5/28
Stilt Sandpiper 4/29 5/7 5/17 5/28
Chestnut-sided Warbler 4/30 5/8 5/17 5/28
American Redstart 5/1 5/8 5/18 5/28
Blackburnian Warbler 5/1 5/9 5/18 5/28
Magnolia Warbler 5/1 5/9 5/18 5/28
Hudsonian Godwit 4/5 4/13 4/23 5/29
Semipalmated Sandpiper 4/8 4/17 5/12 5/29
Sanderling 4/24 5/4 5/16 5/29
Dunlin 4/12 5/10 5/18 5/29
Cape May Warbler 5/3 5/10 5/19 5/29

West

Similar to last week, scattered precipitation is forecast for many areas over the course of this forecast period. Given the date, and that migration timing is generally earlier in many areas of the West than in the East, scattered light migration is the expectation where and when favorable conditions occur. However, east of the Rockies often sees a different pattern more aligned with the Plains and East – favorable conditions during this week along the eastern front, including the prairies and grasslands of Montana, will bring moderate and perhaps locally heavy flights early to mid period before late period precipitation and cooler temperatures shut down these movements.

Common Nighthawk © Benjamin Van Doren

Common Nighthawk © Benjamin Van Doren

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Common Nighthawk 5/22 6/1 6/16 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Cordilleran Flycatcher 5/6 5/22 - -
Willow Flycatcher 5/12 5/23 6/7 -

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
House Wren 3/5 4/30 5/22 -
Yellow-breasted Chat 4/17 5/1 5/24 -
MacGillivray's Warbler 4/22 5/6 5/24 -
Black Tern 4/25 5/7 5/24 -
Brewer's Blackbird 4/4 4/15 5/26 -
Blue Grosbeak 4/17 5/12 5/26 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Wilson's Phalarope 4/18 4/28 5/11 5/22
Blue-winged Teal 3/26 4/10 5/4 5/23
Sora 4/18 4/28 5/10 5/23
Clay-colored Sparrow 4/27 5/4 5/14 5/25
Spotted Sandpiper 4/21 4/30 5/14 5/26
Wilson's Warbler 4/11 4/24 5/11 5/27
Red-necked Phalarope 4/15 4/28 5/12 5/27
White-faced Ibis 4/6 4/15 4/30 5/28

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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