Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 11-18 March 2016

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Mar 18, 2016

Northern Rough-winged Swallow. Bradley Hacker/Macaulay Library. 15 Mar 2016 eBird S28239965, ML 25760121

Northern Rough-winged Swallow. Bradley Hacker/Macaulay Library. 15 Mar 2016
eBird S28239965, ML 25760121

Continental Summary

Although early week rain kept most migrants in the West grounded, more favorable midweek conditions spawned light and moderate flights in California and the Desert Southwest; meanwhile, most of the period saw the East experience a dynamic weather scene in which light and moderate flights alternated with precipitation and strong storms.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Scattered light to moderate movements were the norm this week across the region. Largely responsible for these patterns were several significant areas of precipitation that kept birds grounded, most notably between Saturday night and Wednesday morning. The most intense flights of the week occurred on Monday and Tuesday, in the Midwest and Ohio Valley, respectively. Note the highly localized moderate flights in coastal New Jersey and New York on Wednesday night, interestingly following the passage of precipitation in calmer than expected winds.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Phoebe 140% 14.3
Tree Swallow 88% 9.2
Osprey 117% 2.8
Blue-winged Teal 78% 2.5
Field Sparrow 65% 4.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 42% 10.9
Chipping Sparrow 120% 2.2
Pied-billed Grebe 49% 6.4
Northern Flicker 35% 15
Eastern Towhee 41% 6.2
Wood Duck 25% 14.7
Song Sparrow 21% 47.1
Golden-crowned Kinglet 78% 4
Laughing Gull 148% 0.8
Double-crested Cormorant 43% 5.3
Fox Sparrow 30% 5.5
American Robin 15% 59.3
Pectoral Sandpiper 347% 0.5
Great Egret 143% 0.7
American Golden-Plover 200% 0.2
Brown Thrasher 75% 1.5
Bonaparte's Gull 73% 1.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 259% 0.2
Pine Warbler 53% 2.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Greater White-fronted Goose -61% 0.9
Common Goldeneye -37% 4.7
Cackling Goose -74% 0.2
Snow Goose -43% 2.2
Northern Pintail -36% 3.4
Tundra Swan -38% 2.4
Glaucous Gull -57% 0.2
White-winged Scoter -43% 0.8
Rough-legged Hawk -44% 0.5
Herring Gull -19% 12
Hooded Merganser -19% 8.6
Redhead -25% 4.2
Razorbill -53% 0.1
Golden Eagle -53% 0.1
Ring-billed Gull -14% 21.7
American Tree Sparrow -14% 9.5
Common Merganser -13% 9.6
Canvasback -24% 1.9
Bald Eagle -13% 10.6
Iceland Gull -30% 0.3
Short-eared Owl -34% 0.2
American Wigeon -13% 6.1

Northern Parula. Steve Raduns/Macaulay Library. 7 Mar 2016 eBird S28026108, ML 25435171

Northern Parula. Steve Raduns/Macaulay Library. 7 Mar 2016
eBird S28026108, ML 25435171

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Precipitation bisected the region for Friday and Saturday nights, with light to locally moderate flights occurring to the east and west of the disturbance. After the passage of this disturbance, more intense flights appeared, primarily west of the Mississippi River. But widespread flights did not material, with only local light to moderate flights scattered across the region for the remainder of the period. Note, however, the input of birds from Cuba visible on the Key West radar on several nights during the past week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow 98% 8
Couch's Kingbird 121% 2.9
Chimney Swift 1360% 0.9
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 183% 1.4
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 63% 4.5
Purple Martin 42% 8.3
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 90% 2.2
Northern Parula 31% 12
Black-necked Stilt 35% 4.2
White-eyed Vireo 31% 13.1
Yellow-throated Vireo 126% 1
Lark Sparrow 93% 1.4
Wilson's Phalarope 170% 0.7
Golden-cheeked Warbler 605% 0.4
Great Crested Flycatcher 48% 2.9
Cliff Swallow 88% 1.1
Common Yellowthroat 28% 8.7
Louisiana Waterthrush 76% 0.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-throated Loon -80% 0.2
Bonaparte's Gull -42% 1.6
Ring-billed Gull -26% 10.3
Horned Grebe -46% 1.1
American Robin -22% 17.6
Gadwall -32% 5
Lesser Scaup -27% 4.5
American Pipit -45% 1.1
Ring-necked Duck -25% 3.7
Fox Sparrow -52% 0.4
Great Black-backed Gull -53% 0.5
Eastern Phoebe -18% 19.2
Bufflehead -26% 3.7
Rusty Blackbird -43% 0.5
American Wigeon -35% 2.3
Le Conte's Sparrow -97% 0
Yellow-rumped Warbler -11% 37.3
Dark-eyed Junco -23% 7.3
Black Skimmer -31% 1.4
Long-billed Curlew -40% 0.5

Field Sparrow. Rob Bielawski/Macaulay Library. 13 Mar 2016 eBird S28136487ML 25715601

Field Sparrow. Rob Bielawski/Macaulay Library. 13 Mar 2016
eBird S28136487ML 25715601

Great Plains

Scattered light to moderate flights were the norm for the first half of the period. These movements were primarily in the central and southern Plains, particularly on Monday night as strong storms moved across the northern Plains. With the passage of these storms and the frontal boundary with which they were associated, migration shut down in northerly flow and cooler temperatures. This pattern closed out the week, with minimal to light flights returning only in the southernmost reaches of the Plains.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Blue-winged Teal 84% 12.9
Brown-headed Cowbird 58% 12
Northern Shoveler 52% 19
Eastern Phoebe 46% 20.2
Fish Crow 176% 3.7
Song Sparrow 33% 20.9
Ruddy Duck 65% 9.4
Tree Swallow 118% 3.4
Purple Martin 199% 1.8
American Coot 40% 15.2
Black-and-white Warbler 2528% 0.9
Vesper Sparrow 1680% 1.4
Field Sparrow 51% 5.4
Barn Swallow 881% 0.7
Marsh Wren 99% 1.6
Turkey Vulture 31% 10.7
Common Grackle 24% 20.7
Cedar Waxwing 30% 9.9
Eastern Meadowlark 25% 17.1
Lesser Scaup 29% 12.1
Bufflehead 33% 13.7
Wood Duck 30% 6.3
Ring-necked Duck 25% 13.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Tree Sparrow -40% 6.4
Evening Grosbeak -94% 0
Ross's Goose -52% 0.8
Common Merganser -37% 2.7
Rough-legged Hawk -41% 1.2
Hooded Merganser -43% 2.2
Bald Eagle -25% 7.4
Northern Shrike -51% 0.5
Lapland Longspur -43% 0.5
Herring Gull -32% 1.5
Common Redpoll -22% 2.6
Snowy Owl -56% 0.3
Common Raven -63% 0.1
Golden Eagle -63% 0.1
Red Crossbill -54% 0.2
Common Goldeneye -14% 5.6
Peregrine Falcon -99% 0

Western Kingbird. Jeff Bray/Macaulay Library. 14 Mar 2016 eBird S28225152 ML 25723981

Western Kingbird. Jeff Bray/Macaulay Library.
14 Mar 2016
eBird S28225152 ML 25723981

West

Widely scattered precipitation fell across the region for the first half of the period, characteristic of a generally unfavorable suite of conditions for much movement. However, signs of changes came on Monday night, when light to moderate flights appeared in California and the Desert Southwest. The intensity of these flights increased slowly on subsequent nights through the remainder of the period, most notably with moderate flights in the Central Valley of California on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-breasted Sapsucker 147% 2.8
Turkey Vulture 31% 17.8
Band-tailed Pigeon 57% 4.4
Orange-crowned Warbler 36% 7.2
Purple Finch 77% 3.4
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 170% 1.2
Barn Swallow 59% 2.9
Rufous Hummingbird 77% 3.5
Lucy's Warbler 65% 2.2
Golden-crowned Sparrow 38% 12.8
Western Kingbird 361% 0.9
Warbling Vireo 352% 0.8
Hutton's Vireo 63% 4
Brown Creeper 46% 5.2
Bell's Vireo 96% 1.2
Hooded Oriole 39% 2.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Herring Gull -28% 1.6
American Dipper -46% 0.3
Black-tailed Gnatcatcher -33% 1.6
Long-eared Owl -59% 0.1
Red Crossbill -37% 0.6
Eastern Meadowlark -65% 0.1
Lark Bunting -44% 0.3
Heermann's Gull -29% 0.8
Hooded Merganser -19% 3.9
Rock Wren -26% 1.6
Northern Pintail -16% 6.1
Brewer's Sparrow -28% 1.2
Bonaparte's Gull -32% 0.5

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY