Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 13-20 November 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 20, 2015

Screenshot 2015-11-19 22.36.02

Franklin’s Gull, Tom Johnson

Continental Summary

A quiet late season week in the West saw primarily scattered light movements, while a wild post-frontal passage ride of Franklin’s Gulls and Cave Swallows in the Northeast highlighted the period’s primarily localized light to moderate flights.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

After the passage of a strong cold front on Friday through the region, remaining showers and unsettled weather kept movements primarily local and light to moderate for the weekend. Two localized moderate flights on the coast highlighted the early week, but another strong frontal boundary moving into the region kept most other movements to a minimum. By Thursday night scattered light to moderate flights were aloft primarily west of the Appalachians and south of the Great Lakes; precipitation kept birds farther north and east grounded.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hooded Merganser 30% 10
Fish Crow 43% 4.2
Tundra Swan 46% 2.1
Purple Finch 22% 6
Ross's Goose 250% 0.3
Snow Goose 68% 1.7
Red-throated Loon 15% 3.7
Great Black-backed Gull 14% 12.2
American Tree Sparrow 13% 11.1
Herring Gull 6% 23.7
Common Eider 20% 2.6
Ring-billed Gull 9% 34.2
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 32% 4.8
Tufted Titmouse 15% 28.1
Harlequin Duck 41% 0.7
Franklin's Gull 30% 1.9

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Greater Yellowlegs -40% 1.9
Wilson's Snipe -53% 0.5
Lark Sparrow -89% 0
Tree Swallow -67% 0.4
Killdeer -30% 3.3
Red-headed Woodpecker -35% 1.2
Hudsonian Godwit -68% 0.1
Black-bellied Plover -37% 1
Lesser Yellowlegs -60% 0.2
Wood Duck -26% 3.3
Osprey -56% 0.3
Red-winged Blackbird -14% 13
Nelson's Sparrow -81% 0
Great Egret -35% 1.4
Dunlin -29% 2.1
Pied-billed Grebe -16% 7.5
Northern Shrike -43% 0.2
Savannah Sparrow -21% 2.3

Ring-necked Duck, Ryan Schain

Ring-necked Duck, Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to moderate flights on the weekend became increasingly sparse as the work week approached. And with the arrival of the work week, localized light flights punctuated a mostly quiet region as a new frontal boundary formed and approached in Texas. The low pressure system driving the front sat over the Mississippi River by Tuesday night, with light to moderate flights following in its wake over Texas. And these flights built in extent to end the period, with more widespread moderate flights on Thursday night in most areas away from southern Texas and peninsular Florida.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 113% 3.7
Hooded Merganser 86% 4.6
Lesser Scaup 63% 4.8
Ring-billed Gull 40% 10.8
Red-breasted Merganser 94% 1.6
Lesser Black-backed Gull 93% 1.8
American Goldfinch 18% 15.8
Common Loon 38% 2.9
Wood Stork 24% 8.5
Ring-necked Duck 26% 6.9
Canvasback 46% 1.6
Northern Shoveler 24% 8.4
Green-winged Teal 26% 6
Bald Eagle 18% 10.3
Bonaparte's Gull 39% 1.7
Black Scoter 57% 0.9
Mallard 17% 11.4
Ferruginous Hawk 215% 0.3
Red Knot 52% 1.1
Northern Gannet 26% 1.6

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Barn Swallow -75% 0.9
Black-throated Green Warbler -64% 0.5
Tennessee Warbler -91% 0.1
White-eyed Vireo -45% 3.6
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -41% 2.3
Indigo Bunting -43% 2.1
Wilson's Warbler -61% 0.5
Common Yellowthroat -32% 6.6
Nashville Warbler -66% 0.4
Magnolia Warbler -90% 0.1

Red Crossbill, Ryan Schain

Red Crossbill, Ryan Schain

Great Plains

With the exception of locally moderate flights in the central and southern Plains to end the period, most of the region was quiet during this week. After southerly flow built in early in the week, a substantially passing disturbance moved across the region, both of which contributed to the dearth of passing migrants.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cackling Goose 47% 8.4
Common Goldeneye 75% 5.3
Bufflehead 42% 14.9
Hooded Merganser 34% 12.5
Lesser Scaup 26% 15.8
Snow Goose 27% 10
Purple Finch 34% 4.9
Canvasback 20% 8.4
Red Crossbill 109% 0.6
Rusty Blackbird 44% 2
Prairie Falcon 77% 0.7
Ross's Goose 32% 3
Red-breasted Merganser 16% 4.8
Eared Grebe 62% 3.3
Snowy Owl 30% 2.1
Bonaparte's Gull 16% 9
Redhead 13% 18
Pine Warbler 70% 0.5
Red-headed Woodpecker 28% 2.6
Mallard 8% 37.9
Ruddy Duck 10% 17.8
Smith's Longspur 46% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Le Conte's Sparrow -86% 0.2
Great Egret -64% 1
Franklin's Gull -41% 5.6
White-crowned Sparrow -40% 4.8
Orange-crowned Warbler -94% 0.1
Lincoln's Sparrow -61% 0.9
Rough-legged Hawk -48% 1.5
Wilson's Snipe -67% 0.4
American Pipit -46% 1.4
Song Sparrow -24% 10.9
Osprey -64% 0.6
Vesper Sparrow -86% 0.1
White-winged Dove -69% 0.1
Greater Yellowlegs -39% 1.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler -24% 11.6
Blue-winged Teal -78% 0.2
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -33% 4.6
Swamp Sparrow -52% 0.8
Pied-billed Grebe -16% 15.4
Savannah Sparrow -34% 3.1
Killdeer -21% 9.8
Eastern Meadowlark -28% 4

Varied Thrush, Ryan Schain

Varied Thrush, Ryan Schain

West

Away from scattered light and locally moderate flights from the Central Valley south and east through the Desert Southwest, the region was mostly quiet for this very late season period. Several areas of precipitation passed through the region, particularly intense in the Pacific Northwest.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye 65% 3.8
White-faced Ibis 53% 2.6
Lesser Scaup 29% 6.6
Varied Thrush 51% 4.5
Tundra Swan 36% 1.9
Loggerhead Shrike 21% 4.7
Bufflehead 17% 18.7
Brant 38% 1.4
Dunlin 23% 3.7
Prairie Falcon 26% 1.6
Sanderling 21% 2.6
Ruddy Duck 11% 13.1
Least Sandpiper 13% 6.1
Brewer's Blackbird 11% 10.2
Lark Sparrow 19% 2.1
Red-breasted Merganser 14% 5
Hooded Merganser 13% 6.8
Pigeon Guillemot 51% 1.1
Mountain Plover 142% 0.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cassin's Vireo -95% 0
Snow Bunting -72% 0
Rough-legged Hawk -29% 1.2
Cassin's Finch -37% 0.3
Mountain Chickadee -19% 5.5
Black-throated Gray Warbler -40% 0.5
Harris's Sparrow -91% 0
Elegant Tern -15% 1.9
Common Redpoll -32% 0.3
Summer Tanager -89% 0
Bohemian Waxwing -52% 0.1

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