Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 16-23 October 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 23, 2015

Screenshot 2015-10-23 11.38.09

Red-throated Loon, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Light to moderate mid and end of week flights in the West featured numerous waterfowl, Varied Thrush, Hermit Thrush, and Pine Siskin, while extensive moderate to heavy flights last weekend saw the passage of Brant, Bufflehead, Red-throated Loon, Bald Eagle, Wilson’s Snipe, Merlin, Brown Creeper, Saltmarsh Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A moderate and locally heavy weekend movement persisted through Sunday for the Northeast. But Monday night saw the arrival of much less favorable conditions for movement, including warming temperatures and southerly flow, shutting down flights for the region. With the eventual passage of a frontal boundary on Wednesday and Thursday nights, moderate to heavy flights returned to the region, first in the Upper Midwest and then for portions of the Ohio River Valley and northern Appalachians.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 110% 2.8
Hooded Merganser 79% 3.3
Dunlin 67% 5.2
Pine Siskin 38% 4.7
Fox Sparrow 34% 4.1
Red-breasted Merganser 42% 2
American Tree Sparrow 18% 2.8
Red-throated Loon 71% 0.9
Common Goldeneye 98% 0.6
Dark-eyed Junco 8% 25.9
American Black Duck 15% 8.6
Brant 25% 2.7
Black Scoter 35% 1.7
Rusty Blackbird 19% 4.2
Horned Grebe 28% 1.8
Black-bellied Plover 26% 3.9
Ruddy Turnstone 89% 0.7
Long-tailed Duck 51% 0.6
Green-winged Teal 12% 8.7
Northern Shrike 64% 0.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Indigo Bunting -80% 0.4
Northern Parula -86% 0.1
Black-throated Green Warbler -74% 0.5
Blackpoll Warbler -57% 1.7
Gray Catbird -37% 8.4
Black-throated Blue Warbler -62% 0.7
Blue-winged Teal -49% 1.7
Pine Warbler -51% 1.4
Nashville Warbler -58% 1
Palm Warbler -33% 8.4
Tree Swallow -37% 6.2
Great Egret -28% 5.9
Cape May Warbler -92% 0
Common Yellowthroat -32% 4.3
Magnolia Warbler -80% 0.1
Eastern Phoebe -20% 14.2
House Wren -42% 1.6
Swainson's Thrush -66% 0.4
Osprey -35% 2.7
American Redstart -82% 0.1
Black-and-white Warbler -86% 0.1
Blue-headed Vireo -31% 3.5
Tennessee Warbler -54% 0.6
Chimney Swift -104% -0.1
Red-eyed Vireo -67% 0.3

Screenshot 2015-10-23 11.39.16

Saltmarsh Sparrow, Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

An intense and extensive movement kicked off the weekend, with moderate to very heavy flights on Friday night continuing more locally through Sunday night. But this major movement was the highlight of the week, as return flow and its generally unfavorable conditions spread through the region beginning on Monday. These primarily southerly and unfavorable winds kept most movements local and light. Note, however, that some of the easternmost reaches of the region continued to experience more intense movements, particularly in Florida on Thursday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
White-throated Sparrow 42% 8.2
Gadwall 57% 2.8
Golden-crowned Kinglet 49% 5.1
Winter Wren 65% 1.9
Yellow-rumped Warbler 17% 17.3
Dark-eyed Junco 51% 2.1
Green-winged Teal 42% 2.9
American Wigeon 31% 2.5
Ruddy Duck 36% 2.3
Greater Yellowlegs 21% 5.5
Northern Pintail 36% 2.2
Black Scoter 133% 0.3
Song Sparrow 15% 11
Cedar Waxwing 61% 2.2
Orange-crowned Warbler 24% 5.2
Double-crested Cormorant 15% 21.5
Wilson's Snipe 25% 4.3
Brown Creeper 51% 1
Tree Swallow 16% 9
Saltmarsh Sparrow 97% 0.3
Ring-necked Duck 20% 1.6
American Kestrel 14% 16.4
Dunlin 29% 2.3
Pine Siskin 53% 0.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Chimney Swift -69% 1.6
Swainson's Thrush -65% 1.6
Magnolia Warbler -57% 2.8
Red-eyed Vireo -69% 1.3
Indigo Bunting -49% 7
Scarlet Tanager -70% 0.7
Tennessee Warbler -53% 2.4
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -59% 1.3
Summer Tanager -60% 1.4
Blackburnian Warbler -98% 0
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -42% 5.1
Northern Parula -44% 4.5
American Redstart -32% 8.2
Bobolink -94% 0
Blue Grosbeak -64% 0.7
Chestnut-sided Warbler -71% 0.4
White-eyed Vireo -32% 9.7
Common Yellowthroat -30% 13.1
Ovenbird -43% 2.9
Yellow-throated Warbler -40% 3.3
Wood Thrush -52% 1
Yellow Warbler -82% 0.2
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -49% 1.4
Prairie Warbler -39% 3
Gray-cheeked Thrush -54% 0.8

Screenshot 2015-10-23 11.40.52

American Tree Sparrow, Ryan Schain

Great Plains

The region experienced a quiet weekend for migration as southerly flow and high pressure had birds mostly staying put. Locally light and moderate flights on Monday night were primarily central and northern Plains events, whereas more intense movements, including some locally very heavy flights, occurred in the central and southern Plains on Wednesday night. But the whole system shut down on Thursday night with extensive precipitation associated with circulation around an arriving low pressure center.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ring-necked Duck 165% 9.3
Cackling Goose 105% 3.3
Merlin 181% 2.9
Herring Gull 58% 4.6
Horned Grebe 50% 5.6
Gadwall 31% 11.4
American Wigeon 31% 8.7
Dark-eyed Junco 23% 34.7
Bonaparte's Gull 53% 3.3
Ring-billed Gull 21% 24.1
American Tree Sparrow 16% 5.5
Bald Eagle 26% 10.9
Ruddy Duck 25% 10.2
Lesser Scaup 43% 3.4
Green-winged Teal 22% 11.9
Redhead 25% 8.6
Winter Wren 94% 1.9
Whooping Crane 60% 1
Greater White-fronted Goose 35% 3.9
Song Sparrow 18% 21.3
Rusty Blackbird 44% 1.7
Bewick's Wren 55% 1.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
House Wren -95% 0.2
Barn Swallow -89% 0.4
Nashville Warbler -80% 0.7
Common Yellowthroat -80% 0.6
Nelson's Sparrow -87% 0.3
Orange-crowned Warbler -44% 6.8
Eastern Phoebe -51% 4.4
Turkey Vulture -32% 15.9
Lincoln's Sparrow -39% 8.4
Brown Thrasher -65% 1.2
Swainson's Hawk -72% 0.3
Snowy Egret -61% 0.8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -24% 13.2
Sedge Wren -40% 2.2
Red-winged Blackbird -26% 21
Black-throated Green Warbler -64% 0.4
Blue-headed Vireo -79% 0.2
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -36% 3.2
Red-headed Woodpecker -57% 1.2
Blue Jay -14% 38.1
Common Grackle -18% 11.1
Pectoral Sandpiper -59% 0.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -74% 0.2

Screenshot 2015-10-23 11.36.59

Pine Siskin, Ryan Schain

West

Scattered precipitation kept most birds grounded for the start of the period across the region. By Sunday scattered light flights occurred in California and portions of Oregon. These movements persisted through Tuesday night, and even intensified, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. The remainder of the period saw a continuation of lesser intensity flights along the Pacific and in portions of the Desert Southwest.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Bufflehead 65% 4.6
Surf Scoter 48% 5.6
Western Grebe 32% 13
Mew Gull 40% 4
Red-breasted Merganser 102% 1.1
Long-tailed Duck 842% 0.4
Pine Siskin 24% 10.3
Common Loon 27% 4.8
Lesser Scaup 30% 2.9
Snowy Egret 17% 9.6
Hermit Thrush 17% 9.7
Horned Grebe 22% 5.3
Bonaparte's Gull 36% 1.7
Varied Thrush 23% 4.1
Pelagic Cormorant 42% 4
Canvasback 36% 1.5
American Wigeon 13% 12.5
Ruddy Duck 14% 10.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Yellow Warbler -51% 0.9
Cassin's Vireo -79% 0
Hammond's Flycatcher -86% 0
Wilson's Warbler -42% 0.6
Mountain Chickadee -25% 5.7
McCown's Longspur -84% 0
Mountain Bluebird -30% 1.1
Swainson's Thrush -66% 0.1
White-breasted Nuthatch -20% 6.4
Chipping Sparrow -21% 3.1
Barn Swallow -25% 1.5
Blue Jay -15% 2.2
Gray Catbird -78% 0.1
Painted Redstart -75% 0
Common Grackle -21% 0.9
Red-breasted Nuthatch -10% 10.8
Yellow-headed Blackbird -26% 0.7
Common Yellowthroat -13% 5.3

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