Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 24-31 March 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Mar 31, 2017

Chipping Sparrow. Simon Best/Macaulay Library. eBird S35546296.

Continental Summary

Scattered among the West’s areas of persistent precipitation during were light to moderate flights featuring Turkey Vulture, Osprey, Greater Yellowlegs, Black-headed Grosbeak, and Hooded Oriole, while pulses of similarly intense flights featuring Great Egret, Eastern Kingbird, Barn Swallow, Northern Rough-winged Swallow, Brown Thrasher, Prothonotary Warbler, and Louisiana Waterthrush occurred in advance of multiple frontal passages in the East.

Looking at eBird reports on the following map, we see that Ospreys made great headway, reaching the Canadian border in both the East and West:

Northern Rough-winged Swallows pushed well north in the last week, reaching Massachusetts in the East and British Columbia in the West.

Barn Swallows weren’t far behind!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

 

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
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BirdCast West Region

 

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Locally light flights were the norm for the first days of this period, primarily in the southern reaches of the region. By Monday night, scattered light to moderate flights were apparent the Upper Midwest and in portions of the Northeast on either side of a low pressure system moving east. As a more significant storm system moved east on Tuesday night, moderate flights in more favorable migration conditions occurred in portions of the Upper Midwest, and then in the central Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys on Wednesday night. The arrival of the organized low pressure system on Thursday shut down movements across the region.

Louisiana Waterthrush continued an impressive northward movement in the last week, with reports as far north as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, northern Ohio, and northern Illinois.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Tree Swallow 108% 16.1
Eastern Phoebe 93% 21.5
Chipping Sparrow 185% 7.5
Golden-crowned Kinglet 93% 12.2
Great Egret 139% 4.1
Northern Flicker 48% 17.4
Field Sparrow 71% 6.6
Brown Thrasher 102% 3.8
Eastern Towhee 55% 7.7
Brown-headed Cowbird 41% 13.9
Double-crested Cormorant 44% 8.9
Wood Duck 27% 16.6
Song Sparrow 20% 46.7
American Robin 16% 61
Louisiana Waterthrush 217% 0.9
Greater Yellowlegs 84% 2.4
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 56% 3.4
Barn Swallow 246% 0.4
Blue-winged Teal 32% 5.7
Common Grackle 12% 33.9
Brown Creeper 31% 5.6
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 69% 2.7
Pied-billed Grebe 22% 10.2
Belted Kingfisher 24% 8.5
American Goldfinch 18% 23.2

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye -29% 4.8
Northern Pintail -35% 3.4
Canvasback -33% 2.3
Herring Gull -16% 11.8
Redhead -22% 4
Hooded Merganser -12% 12.7
Bald Eagle -13% 10.8
Greater White-fronted Goose -39% 0.7
Lesser Scaup -15% 7.9
Greater Scaup -18% 2.9
Red-breasted Merganser -13% 7.5
American Woodcock -17% 2.4
Northern Shoveler -11% 8.6
Horned Lark -12% 3.2
Harlequin Duck -52% 0.1
White-winged Scoter -21% 0.8
American Coot -12% 6.9
American White Pelican -21% 0.8
Barrow's Goldeneye -41% 0.1
Ring-necked Duck -8% 13.9
Red-breasted Nuthatch -7% 4.4
Sandhill Crane -11% 4.7
Long-tailed Duck -12% 1.6

 

Eastern Kingbird. Lawrence Gardella/Macaulay Library. eBird S35557829.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate flights in Texas and from the Appalachians east kicked off the weekend. These movements broadened to include much of the region for the remainder of the region. Note several inputs of birds across the Florida Straits from Cuba, as well as an extensive flight in Florida on Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Prothonotary Warblers have started to pull away from the Gulf Coast in the last week, as far as North Carolina.

Black-throated Green Warbler. Jeffrey Offermann/Macaulay Library. eBird S30118078.

The first Black-throated Green Warblers have arrived – and it seems many of them have skipped the coast entirely! Notice sightings as far north as Kentucky and Tennessee. Are these birds entirely overflying coastal areas? We assume (and have assumed) so, but there is much still to learn!

Yellow-throated Warblers are also on the move, reaching New Jersey this past week.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Great Crested Flycatcher 93% 7.6
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 120% 4.9
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 50% 22.9
Chimney Swift 626% 1.9
Willet 41% 8
Eastern Kingbird 176% 1.3
Barn Swallow 37% 12
Louisiana Waterthrush 68% 3.2
Brown-headed Cowbird 25% 15.4
Ruby-throated Hummingbird 45% 4.9
Chipping Sparrow 21% 19.4
Black-throated Green Warbler 145% 1.3
Eastern Towhee 18% 20.2
Least Tern 199% 0.9
Red-eyed Vireo 92% 1.5
Broad-winged Hawk 101% 1.4
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 28% 8.8
Hooded Warbler 101% 1.3
Yellow-throated Warbler 28% 6.1
Prothonotary Warbler 134% 0.9
Sandwich Tern 54% 2.2
Green Heron 27% 6.8
Yellow-throated Vireo 46% 2.9
Black-bellied Plover 36% 4.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Kinglet -64% 1.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker -37% 2.8
American Kestrel -29% 5.8
Eastern Phoebe -23% 14
Hooded Merganser -41% 1.2
Ring-necked Duck -38% 1.5
Yellow-rumped Warbler -17% 26.5
Dark-eyed Junco -22% 5.4
Northern Harrier -24% 3.9
Brown Creeper -39% 0.7
American White Pelican -23% 2.9
Bald Eagle -17% 6.2
Common Goldeneye -87% 0
Bufflehead -24% 2.4
Ring-billed Gull -17% 7.6
Song Sparrow -15% 10.6
Red-tailed Hawk -17% 7.6
Fox Sparrow -65% 0.2
Horned Grebe -35% 0.7
Green-winged Teal -20% 3.1
Gadwall -19% 2.9
American Wigeon -29% 1.1
Cape May Warbler -71% 0.1
Wilson's Snipe -21% 2.6
Sandhill Crane -17% 3

Brown Thrasher. Charles Donnelly/Macaulay Library. eBird S35398029.

Great Plains

Locally light flights were the norm for the weekend as marginal and unfavorable migration conditions persisted in many areas. Monday night saw an uptick in intensities, with locally moderate movements int he northern and central Plains. But a strong frontal passage with some heavy precipitation shut down many flights on Tuesday night (but not all flights, check out parts of the northern Plains!). Locally light flights continued through the remainder of the period in the wake of low pressure, as a cool air mass with northerly winds kept many birds grounded.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Brown Thrasher 191% 4.7
Barn Swallow 134% 4.4
Chipping Sparrow 88% 5.1
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 135% 2.6
Great Egret 92% 4.7
Pied-billed Grebe 37% 13.8
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 134% 2.7
Common Grackle 28% 31.7
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron 430% 1.6
Wood Duck 39% 8.6
Tundra Swan 96% 3
Purple Martin 81% 2.1
Osprey 179% 0.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 30% 5.6
Northern Shoveler 12% 24.7
Red-winged Blackbird 8% 44.4
Northern Mockingbird 17% 11.2
Franklin's Gull 44% 3.8
Western Meadowlark 14% 20.7
Lesser Scaup 18% 16.3
Mourning Dove 8% 29.6
Common Loon 47% 2.8

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Wilson's Snipe -52% 2.9
Pectoral Sandpiper -64% 1.5
Snow Goose -38% 4.9
Sandhill Crane -47% 3
Lesser Yellowlegs -46% 2.9
Cackling Goose -49% 1.9
Long-billed Dowitcher -71% 0.6
Northern Flicker -17% 18.2
Cinnamon Teal -85% 0.2
American Tree Sparrow -23% 7.1
Greater White-fronted Goose -41% 2.5
Common Goldeneye -25% 5.1
Eastern Phoebe -17% 13.8
Eastern Bluebird -15% 15.6
Least Sandpiper -48% 1.7
Bald Eagle -21% 9.6
Savannah Sparrow -28% 5.1
Baird's Sandpiper -49% 1.2
Northern Shrike -96% 0
American Avocet -71% 0.1
Marsh Wren -61% 0.3
Northern Pintail -18% 7.8
Song Sparrow -13% 15.5
American Pipit -41% 0.9
American Crow -9% 29

Black-headed Grosbeak. Dave Bengston/Macaulay Library. eBird S35553123.

West

A disturbance and its associated precipitation moving across the region kept light to moderate movements localized in California, the Desert Southwest, and portions of the northern Rockies for the weekend. Scattered precipitation continued to squelch most migration signal for the early part of the week outside of light to locally moderate flights in California. And although the extent of these light to moderate movements expanded slightly from California back into the Desert Southwest to end the period, the continued occurrence of precipitation in many areas grounded most migrants.

Pacific-slope Flycatchers are moving north, up the coast:

Violet-green Swallows are also on the move, increasing by 15% this week:

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Grackle 147% 2.4
Osprey 37% 5.2
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 29% 7.4
Turkey Vulture 24% 21.1
Barn Swallow 34% 5.8
Cliff Swallow 41% 4.2
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 49% 3.4
Hooded Oriole 35% 4.6
Greater Yellowlegs 28% 4.7
Wilson's Warbler 38% 2.2
Orange-crowned Warbler 20% 8.3
Black-headed Grosbeak 286% 0.6
Bell's Vireo 26% 3.4
Gray Hawk 55% 0.9
Black-throated Gray Warbler 53% 1.1
Caspian Tern 46% 1.2
Violet-green Swallow 15% 8.5
Bullock's Oriole 26% 2.1
Western Kingbird 17% 3.3
Band-tailed Pigeon 16% 3.5
Savannah Sparrow 17% 4.1
Warbling Vireo 29% 1.2
Common Yellowthroat 11% 5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Pintail -22% 4.1
Common Goldeneye -17% 5.7
Tundra Swan -47% 0.7
Trumpeter Swan -49% 0.5
Dark-eyed Junco -7% 20.6
Black-billed Magpie -11% 9.4
Ring-billed Gull -11% 7.2
Hooded Merganser -13% 3.2
Varied Thrush -22% 0.8
Herring Gull -12% 1.3
White-breasted Nuthatch -4% 6.7
California Gull -5% 5.9
Tree Swallow -4% 10.4
Bald Eagle -3% 7.9
Say's Phoebe -3% 8.6
Glaucous-winged Gull -2% 3.9
Black-capped Chickadee -2% 14
Hermit Thrush -1% 2.9
Rufous Hummingbird -4% 5.2
Surf Scoter 0% 3.2

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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