Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 28 August – 4 September 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 04, 2015

Screenshot 2015-09-04 13.44.01

Continental Summary

Scattered light to moderate flights of Vaux’s Swift, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, Western Tanager, Black-throated Gray Warbler, and Orange-crowned Warbler took flight in the West this week, while moderate flights of Red-eyed Vireo, Warbling Vireo, Swainson’s Thrush, Veery, Gray Catbird, Magnolia Warbler, and Scarlet Tanager became increasingly widespread by the end of the week in the East.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

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Upper Midwest and Northeast

Light to moderate migration was apparent from the Appalachians east to the coast to kick off the weekend. By Saturday and Sunday nights, more extensive moderate movements appeared, first in the Great Lakes and Mississippi River valley, then into the Appalachian and coastal regions. Monday and Tuesday nights saw locally heavy and very heavy flights in the upper Mississippi River valley, including this amazing morning flight observation. By Wednesday and Thursday, the slow movements of a frontal boundary to the east enhanced flights further, with moderate and heavy flights becoming more common over the Great Lakes and New York and New England.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swainson's Thrush 103% 4.4
Warbling Vireo 37% 11
Magnolia Warbler 28% 11.5
Blackpoll Warbler 100% 2.4
White-eyed Vireo 45% 5.2
Bay-breasted Warbler 58% 2.1
Yellow-throated Vireo 32% 4.3
Common Nighthawk 21% 7.6
Philadelphia Vireo 57% 1.7
Palm Warbler 261% 0.9
Pine Warbler 33% 3.5
Wilson's Warbler 32% 2.8
Gray-cheeked Thrush -33891% 0.5
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 36% 2.4
Veery 27% 3.9
Merlin 33% 2.4
Cape May Warbler 33% 2.2
Bobolink 21% 5.2
Rose-breasted Grosbeak 17% 6.6
Common Yellowthroat 11% 20.9
Buff-breasted Sandpiper 16% 2.1
Northern Flicker 11% 24.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Cliff Swallow -68% 0.8
Bank Swallow -54% 1.7
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -45% 2.4
Barn Swallow -34% 16.5
Eastern Kingbird -33% 7.9
Tree Swallow -29% 11.8
Black Tern -48% 0.9
Baltimore Oriole -29% 9.2
Purple Martin -40% 1.8
Semipalmated Sandpiper -20% 8.8
Least Tern -44% 0.9
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -26% 10.2
Orchard Oriole -63% 0.2
Osprey -17% 12.8
Spotted Sandpiper -16% 8.8
Ruddy Turnstone -27% 1.8
Common Tern -22% 3.4
Piping Plover -53% 0.2
Blue-winged Warbler -32% 1.8
Willet -27% 1.4
Canada Warbler -33% 3.4

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Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to moderate flights were the norm across the region this week, as birds gradually began to overtake insects and bats as components of the nocturnal atmosphere. Locally heavy flights over Texas were probably a mixture of all of these biologicals, whereas building week’s movements in the southeastern coastal plain were increasingly dominated by birds by period’s end. Note also the departures of birds from Florida, including late week departures of birds leaving the Keys for Cuba

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Magnolia Warbler 298% 1.5
American Redstart 42% 9.4
Scarlet Tanager 239% 2.1
Chestnut-sided Warbler 70% 4.6
Red-eyed Vireo 29% 15.9
Ovenbird 65% 3.3
Veery 889% 0.7
Blackburnian Warbler 71% 2.2
White-eyed Vireo 20% 19.8
Black-and-white Warbler 27% 8.4
Wilson's Warbler 69% 1.8
Northern Parula 22% 12.1
Sandhill Crane 56% 3.2
Black-throated Blue Warbler 89% 1.1
Pine Warbler 24% 8.3
Tennessee Warbler 88% 0.9
Wood Thrush 108% 1.1
Sora 70% 0.9
Yellow-throated Vireo 27% 4.6
Yellow-throated Warbler 22% 5.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Stilt Sandpiper -52% 0.9
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -37% 3.5
Solitary Sandpiper -38% 2.1
Pectoral Sandpiper -33% 2.3
American Avocet -44% 0.8
Blue Grosbeak -26% 3.6
Eastern Kingbird -17% 7.7
Blue-winged Teal -27% 3.9
Western Kingbird -32% 0.8
Long-billed Dowitcher -44% 0.5
Spotted Sandpiper -13% 7.5
Mississippi Kite -20% 3.5

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Great Plains

The central and southern Plains saw moderate to heavy movements kickoff the weekend, followed by a Monday night pulse of similar intensity movements in the northern Plains. But in the days that followed, the region quieted substantially as less favorable conditions prevailed. These nights were not without migration, however, as scattered light movements continued where more marginal conditions (in particular, light winds) persisted.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-and-white Warbler 38% 7.2
Swainson's Thrush 48% 5.4
Buff-breasted Sandpiper 58% 4.7
Nashville Warbler 54% 2.8
Warbling Vireo 25% 13.5
Philadelphia Vireo 48% 2.4
California Gull 65% 1.9
Broad-winged Hawk 31% 1.9
Wilson's Warbler 19% 6.8
Olive-sided Flycatcher 19% 5.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Avocet -68% 2
Yellow Warbler -47% 8.3
Orchard Oriole -68% 1.5
Common Nighthawk -54% 6.6
Cliff Swallow -39% 4.6
Purple Martin -51% 1.9
Western Kingbird -35% 4.1

Screenshot 2015-09-04 13.43.11

West

California, portions of the Desert Southwest, and the eastern and northern Rockies all saw a peppering of light to moderate flights during the first half of the forecast period. Migration was generally more apparent during this time, as less favorable conditions with generally lower intensity and less extensive movements followed during the second half of the period. Note the moderate flight in northeastern Montana that ends the period, associated with a localized northern tier flight behind a frontal boundary.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Western Tanager 25% 14.9
Vaux's Swift 69% 4.1
Red-shouldered Hawk 47% 5.9
Black-throated Gray Warbler 40% 6.6
Violet-green Swallow 35% 8.4
Anna's Hummingbird 20% 26.1
Allen's Hummingbird 35% 3.6
Black Phoebe 18% 24
Orange-crowned Warbler 17% 13.9
Lesser Goldfinch 14% 23.8
Pacific-slope Flycatcher 33% 5.4

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Eastern Kingbird -67% 0.7
Marbled Godwit -40% 2.3
Baird's Sandpiper -39% 2.3
Solitary Sandpiper -42% 1.6
Semipalmated Sandpiper -46% 0.8
Wilson's Phalarope -36% 2.2
Wandering Tattler -55% 0.4
Black Turnstone -35% 1.5
Western Kingbird -31% 4.3
Short-billed Dowitcher -37% 1.3
Sanderling -36% 1.3
Common Nighthawk -35% 1.2
Bullock's Oriole -33% 1.7
Red-throated Loon -39% 0.5
Semipalmated Plover -24% 4.3

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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