Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 30 September – 6 October 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 06, 2017

Golden-crowned Kinglet. Joe Wing/Macaulay Library. eBird S39495328.

Continental Summary

Moderate flights that featured Snow Goose, Greater Scaup, Eared Grebe, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Hermit Thrush, and Golden-crowned Sparrow were the norm in many areas of the West this week, while several pulses of heavy flights occurred in the East and featured Ruddy Duck, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Rusty Blackbird, Fox Sparrow, Swamp Sparrow, Harris’s Sparrow, and Purple Finch.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to heavy flights spread across the region on Friday and Saturday nights, first in the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley, then in the Appalachians and portions of the coastal plain. By Sunday and Monday flights were significantly less intense and restricted almost exclusively to coastal locations. With the arrival of a new frontal system through the western Great Lakes, moderate to very heavy flights also arrived in the Upper Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday night. These movements spread to the east on Wednesday night as the front bowed across the northern tier states. By Thursday night as the front dissociated, a patchwork of light to locally heavy movements and precipitation occurred across the region. Note that where skies were clear to the north and west of the region, some very heavy movements occurred.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Golden-crowned Kinglet 86% 13.6
Yellow-rumped Warbler 67% 28
White-crowned Sparrow 101% 9
Swamp Sparrow 63% 14.8
Hermit Thrush 120% 4.3
White-throated Sparrow 53% 23.5
Ruddy Duck 166% 2.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 47% 23.9
Dark-eyed Junco 80% 6.4
Rusty Blackbird 114% 2.3
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 53% 11.7
Red-winged Blackbird 34% 20.7
Song Sparrow 24% 36.4
Winter Wren 65% 3.7
Brown Creeper 58% 4.5
Fox Sparrow 171% 0.9
Lincoln's Sparrow 34% 7.2
House Finch 18% 21.8
Ring-necked Duck 91% 1
American Wigeon 63% 2.6
Savannah Sparrow 26% 8.8
Brown-headed Cowbird 36% 4.2
American Robin 11% 46.1
Nelson's Sparrow 74% 1
American Tree Sparrow 218% 0.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
American Redstart -57% 4.3
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -59% 2.1
Black-and-white Warbler -54% 3.3
Green Heron -70% 0.9
Broad-winged Hawk -65% 1
Philadelphia Vireo -71% 0.6
Chestnut-sided Warbler -77% 0.6
Magnolia Warbler -44% 5.6
Eastern Wood-Pewee -50% 3.4
Red-eyed Vireo -46% 4.6
Yellow-throated Vireo -89% 0.1
Northern Parula -40% 4.9
Wilson's Warbler -78% 0.3
Scarlet Tanager -49% 2
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -48% 2.5
Common Tern -68% 0.5
Swainson's Thrush -34% 4.4
Bay-breasted Warbler -50% 1.4
Gray Catbird -16% 30.9
Osprey -32% 5.1
Blackpoll Warbler -37% 2.9
Brown Thrasher -31% 4.1
House Wren -20% 8.9
Nashville Warbler -27% 4.4
Blackburnian Warbler -63% 0.5

Marsh Wren. Martin Wall/Macaulay Library. eBird S39579244.

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to very heavy flights graced the region for the weekend, becoming gradually less intense and significantly less extensive by Sunday night. By the beginning of the work week, most movement occurred to the east of the Mississippi River, though some of these flights were locally heavy. Tuesday saw a gradual increase in the extent of flights, with similarly intense movements in the southeast but new moderate to locally heavy flights in Texas. This increase continued through the remainder of the period, as moderate and locally heavy flights became more widespread.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Flicker 45% 19.3
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 64% 6.1
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 117% 2.3
Yellow-rumped Warbler 99% 2.2
Gray Catbird 23% 24
Palm Warbler 27% 12
Eastern Phoebe 21% 22.2
House Wren 39% 5.9
American Robin 17% 14.2
Eastern Bluebird 14% 20.4
Swamp Sparrow 181% 0.6
Royal Tern 20% 6.7
House Finch 14% 18.4
Green-winged Teal 58% 1
Turkey Vulture 9% 29.2
Red-winged Blackbird 12% 10.9
American Kestrel 13% 6.9
Savannah Sparrow 45% 0.8
American Crow 6% 35.9
American Coot 20% 2.6
Mallard 16% 6.2
Indigo Bunting 11% 7.7
American White Pelican 24% 1.8
Marsh Wren 32% 1.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -34% 14.1
Baltimore Oriole -60% 1.3
Green Heron -47% 3.1
Great Crested Flycatcher -65% 0.8
Wilson's Warbler -42% 2.1
Yellow Warbler -34% 4.3
Eastern Kingbird -73% 0.4
White-eyed Vireo -24% 16.1
Summer Tanager -31% 6.2
Broad-winged Hawk -50% 1
Yellow-throated Vireo -37% 2.2
Barn Swallow -33% 5.9
Red-eyed Vireo -25% 10.9
Canada Warbler -60% 0.4
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -18% 19.7
Eastern Wood-Pewee -19% 9.2
Least Flycatcher -53% 0.5
Cattle Egret -20% 5.1
Prothonotary Warbler -79% 0.1
Mississippi Kite -88% 0.1
Olive-sided Flycatcher -80% 0.1
Chimney Swift -13% 12.4
Yellow-bellied Flycatcher -99% 0
Northern Waterthrush -26% 1.9

Harris’s Sparrow. Stollery & Flood/Macaulay Library. eBird S39522997.

Great Plains

A slow start to the weekend saw locally light and moderate movements on the eastern and western fringes of the region. But more intense flights arrive on Sunday night with the passage of a significantly low pressure evener through the central Plains. As this system organized and eventually passed on Monday and Tuesday, moderate and heavy movements became increasingly more widespread. However, Wednesday and Thursday saw more restricted flights, with moderate to locally heavy movements in the northern Plains and locally light to moderate flights to their south.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Swamp Sparrow 148% 5.4
Dark-eyed Junco 79% 7
White-crowned Sparrow 64% 8.6
Spotted Towhee 79% 7
American Wigeon 96% 4.8
Yellow-rumped Warbler 39% 23.1
Song Sparrow 53% 8.1
Double-crested Cormorant 31% 17.4
Harris's Sparrow 62% 5.4
Herring Gull 174% 1.4
Redhead 63% 4
Lincoln's Sparrow 39% 10
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 28% 20.1
Green-winged Teal 47% 5.5
Field Sparrow 60% 4.3
Gadwall 52% 4.8
Savannah Sparrow 34% 8.3
American Coot 25% 14.3
White-throated Sparrow 32% 8.3
Ring-necked Duck 68% 2
Bonaparte's Gull 111% 1.3
Western Meadowlark 28% 13.1
Purple Finch 186% 0.9
Canvasback 66% 1.7
Western Wood-Pewee 103% 1.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Northern Parula -92% 0.2
Brown Thrasher -45% 5.8
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -53% 3.5
Eastern Wood-Pewee -69% 1.2
Yellow-billed Cuckoo -89% 0.2
Gray Catbird -37% 7.2
Red-headed Woodpecker -45% 4.1
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher -83% 0.4
Red-eyed Vireo -68% 1
Least Flycatcher -74% 0.7
Yellow Warbler -92% 0.1
Snowy Egret -59% 1.4
White-eyed Vireo -90% 0.1
Spotted Sandpiper -95% 0.1
Great Egret -23% 10.3
Warbling Vireo -70% 0.7
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -84% 0.2
American Redstart -76% 0.4
Mourning Dove -15% 34.1
Killdeer -22% 14.9
Broad-winged Hawk -46% 1.8
Swainson's Thrush -78% 0.3
American Kestrel -20% 11.3

Varied Thrush. Ryan Merrill/Macaulay Library. eBird S39508864.

West

The intensity and extent of movements gradually increased over the first days of the period, with locally moderate and heavy flights in the Pacific Northwest and the central and southern Rockies by Sunday night. Following these flights, the remainder of the period saw primarily light to moderate flights that never achieved the extents seen on Sunday. These movements were particularly apparent in California and the Desert Southwest, occurring more locally away from these areas.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Hermit Thrush 62% 7.2
Golden-crowned Sparrow 38% 17.6
Dark-eyed Junco 28% 27.6
Yellow-rumped Warbler 28% 36.9
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 34% 17.6
Snow Goose 183% 1.2
Pine Siskin 19% 10
White-crowned Sparrow 15% 40.1
Acorn Woodpecker 16% 8.7
Mew Gull 32% 2.1
Eared Grebe 23% 3.8
Northern Mockingbird 13% 12.1
Western Grebe 16% 6
Northern Flicker 9% 37.7
Greater Scaup 69% 0.7
Fox Sparrow 12% 9.1
White-throated Sparrow 39% 1
American Crow 5% 33.2
Greater White-fronted Goose 15% 3.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Western Wood-Pewee -74% 1
Western Tanager -49% 3
Vaux's Swift -76% 0.7
Barn Swallow -48% 5.4
Wilson's Warbler -37% 6.8
Violet-green Swallow -68% 1.3
Yellow Warbler -31% 7.9
Pacific-slope Flycatcher -46% 1.9
White-faced Ibis -38% 2
Willow Flycatcher -73% 0.3
Turkey Vulture -17% 18.4
MacGillivray's Warbler -65% 0.5
Semipalmated Plover -50% 0.9
Common Yellowthroat -19% 9
Warbling Vireo -35% 2.6
Swainson's Thrush -62% 0.4
Black-headed Grosbeak -71% 0.3
Orange-crowned Warbler -18% 13.9
Black-chinned Hummingbird -44% 1.2
Western Sandpiper -31% 2.5
Cassin's Vireo -49% 0.6
Killdeer -12% 15.4
Lesser Yellowlegs -42% 0.9
White-throated Swift -42% 0.9
Greater Yellowlegs -17% 5.8

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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