Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 6-13 November 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Nov 13, 2015

Red-throated Loon, Ryan Schain

Red-throated Loon, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

A generally quiet week in the West featured isolated light and moderate flights of Greater White-fronted Goose, Northern Pintail, Bufflehead, Common Goldeneye, Western Bluebird, and Yellow-rumped Warbler, while moderate flights of Red-breasted Merganser, White-winged Scoter, Franklin’s Gull, American Robin, Savannah Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow graced the East early and late in the period.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Moderate to locally heavy flights kicked off the weekend, though most movements occurred south and west of New England and New York. Coastal areas in New England were the exception, experiencing moderate and locally heavy flights on Saturday and Sunday nights. Following the weekend, an unsettled period kept most birds grounded – precipitation associated with several passing disturbances shut down the system for most locations and nights. Some areas of the mid Atlantic experienced locally moderate flights on Wednesday night.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Red-breasted Merganser 76% 4.9
Red-throated Loon 66% 3.3
Cave Swallow 314% 0.3
Bufflehead 31% 11.3
White-winged Scoter 50% 3.1
Long-tailed Duck 45% 2.5
Harlequin Duck 70% 0.5
Black Scoter 48% 2.9
American Tree Sparrow 12% 9.6
Hooded Merganser 21% 7.3
Razorbill 51% 0.3
Surf Scoter 34% 2.9
Purple Sandpiper 45% 0.3
Dovekie 161% 0
Common Merganser 22% 4.4
Common Goldeneye 24% 2.5
Franklin's Gull 124% 0.7
Tundra Swan 21% 0.9
Common Loon 12% 9.1
Horned Grebe 14% 4.1
Common Eider 15% 2.1
American Avocet 36% 0.2
Ruddy Turnstone 31% 0.5

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Pectoral Sandpiper -85% 0.1
Yellow-rumped Warbler -32% 8.6
Dickcissel -79% 0.1
Red-winged Blackbird -28% 14.7
Golden-crowned Kinglet -33% 6.5
Chipping Sparrow -50% 1.5
Savannah Sparrow -41% 2.5
Common Grackle -28% 7.2
Killdeer -35% 4.4
Orange-crowned Warbler -61% 0.3
Swamp Sparrow -31% 5.4
White-crowned Sparrow -40% 2.7
Gray Catbird -57% 1
American Woodcock -60% 0.2
American Robin -17% 33.9
Semipalmated Plover -83% 0.1
Black-bellied Plover -36% 1.4
Osprey -63% 0.3
Greater Yellowlegs -28% 3.1
Cedar Waxwing -24% 10.9
Eastern Bluebird -20% 11.3
Clay-colored Sparrow -95% 0
Lesser Yellowlegs -55% 0.4
Pine Siskin -29% 3.1
Wood Duck -25% 4.1

American Robin, Ryan Schain

American Robin, Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A variety of weather conditions yielded a similarly varied migration scene from Friday through Monday night. Light to locally heavy movements kicked off the weekend in many areas excluding the Mississippi River valley and southern Appalachian terminus. As the rain associated with the disturbance moved east, moderate and locally heavy flights continued but excluding the southeastern coastal Plains and southern Appalachians on Sunday. By Monday night movements were local, but moderate, as generally marginal and unfavorable conditions were spreads across the region. A widespread moderate flight occurred east of the Mississippi River on Tuesday night, while Wednesday saw generally lower intensity but more widely scattered flights as a frontal boundary bisected the region. The period ended with moderate flights scattered from Texas east through the southern Appalachians and Florida Panhandle.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Lesser Scaup 102% 2.9
American Robin 40% 20.4
Bufflehead 211% 1.5
Horned Grebe 67% 2.5
Ring-necked Duck 47% 5.8
American Goldfinch 32% 13
Hooded Merganser 101% 2.2
Red-breasted Merganser 278% 0.7
Cedar Waxwing 38% 4.8
Dark-eyed Junco 28% 7.5
Savannah Sparrow 39% 12.9
Rusty Blackbird 116% 0.8
Redhead 36% 3.7
Harris's Sparrow 349% 0.4
Yellow-rumped Warbler 19% 31
Ruddy Duck 23% 7
Northern Gannet 68% 1.1
Red-tailed Hawk 27% 13
American Pipit 35% 3
Canvasback 61% 1.1
Winter Wren 49% 2.6
Bonaparte's Gull 48% 1.2
Eared Grebe 49% 1.1

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Black-throated Green Warbler -63% 1.2
Barn Swallow -52% 2.9
Indigo Bunting -50% 3.2
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher -49% 3.4
Northern Rough-winged Swallow -53% 0.9
Tennessee Warbler -61% 0.6
Summer Tanager -62% 0.5
American Redstart -57% 0.8
Ruby-throated Hummingbird -43% 2.8
Rose-breasted Grosbeak -65% 0.4

Bufflehead, Ryan Schain

Bufflehead, Ryan Schain

Great Plains

Scattered light to locally moderate flights on the weekend diminished to little to no movement by Sunday and Monday night. The end of the week saw slight improvements but only at a very local scale, with most movements isolated and light to moderate and nowhere distributed widely. These included light to moderate flights in the eastern Plains on Thursday night from the Dakotas south to Oklahoma.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Purple Finch 750% 4.3
Thayer's Gull 149% 4.2
Herring Gull 120% 10
Common Merganser 118% 2.8
Red-breasted Merganser 94% 3.3
Cackling Goose 93% 5.2
Hooded Merganser 31% 7.1
Lesser Scaup 20% 11.4
Black-headed Gull 141% 0.5
Common Goldeneye 39% 2.4
Common Loon 25% 5
Nashville Warbler 375% 0.3
White-winged Scoter 39% 1.3
Greater Scaup 32% 1.3
Ring-billed Gull 8% 31.4
American Tree Sparrow 16% 12.2
Bonaparte's Gull 15% 7.3
Cedar Waxwing 13% 11
Ring-necked Duck 13% 10.9
Redhead 12% 15.2
Belted Kingfisher 12% 10.6
Mallard 7% 33.8
Rusty Blackbird 18% 1.5
Pine Grosbeak 29% 0.7

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Sandhill Crane -85% 0.5
Chipping Sparrow -67% 1.4
Swamp Sparrow -80% 0.5
Merlin -78% 0.5
Lincoln's Sparrow -68% 1.2
Savannah Sparrow -51% 3
Fox Sparrow -53% 2.4
White-throated Sparrow -39% 5.4
Eared Grebe -60% 1.3
Franklin's Gull -30% 8.8
American Crow -22% 31.6
American Avocet -48% 1.3
White-crowned Sparrow -25% 8.1
Green-winged Teal -23% 9.2
Sedge Wren -92% 0
Turkey Vulture -64% 0.6
Orange-crowned Warbler -51% 1.2
Snowy Owl -67% 0.4
Ruby-crowned Kinglet -28% 5.9
American White Pelican -25% 6.1
Rough-legged Hawk -66% 1.2
Song Sparrow -16% 14.4
Le Conte's Sparrow -44% 1.2
Lapland Longspur -51% 0.7

Ross's Goose, Ryan Schain

Ross’s Goose, Ryan Schain

West

The region was generally quiet for this week, typical of this late date in the season. Locally light movements from the Central Valley south and east through the Desert Southwest were the primary subjects of the period’s flights.

Top Movers

Increasing

Species Increase from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Common Goldeneye 45% 2.1
Bufflehead 16% 15.9
Canvasback 25% 3.7
Hooded Merganser 18% 6.3
Greater White-fronted Goose 23% 2.5
Barrow's Goldeneye 25% 1.5
Sanderling 21% 2
Ring-necked Duck 13% 9.3
Snow Goose 9% 2.3
Red-breasted Merganser 6% 4.2
Western Bluebird 11% 8
Yellow-rumped Warbler 6% 33.6
Northern Pintail 11% 7.3

Decreasing

Species Decrease from Last Week % of Checklists Reporting
Brant -57% 0.4
Common Loon -34% 3.4
Townsend's Solitaire -25% 1.5
Pacific Golden-Plover -71% 0
Wilson's Warbler -80% 0.1
Surfbird -33% 0.7
Lewis's Woodpecker -48% 0.2
Nashville Warbler -76% 0
Harlequin Duck -34% 0.5
Clark's Nutcracker -29% 0.5
Evening Grosbeak -24% 0.7
Chestnut-collared Longspur -54% 0.1

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Farnsworth and Van Doren

POWERED BY