Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Analysis: 9-16 October 2015

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 16, 2015

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Short-eared Owl, Ryan Schain

Continental Summary

Light to moderate flights in the West last weekend featured Bufflehead, Cackling Goose, Ring-necked Duck, Herring Gull, Varied Thrush, Ruby-crowned Kinglet, Golden-crowned Sparrow, and Dark-eyed Junco, while several pulses of moderate to very heavy flights in the East featured Green-winged Teal, Bufflehead, Northern Harrier, Wilson’s Snipe, Hermit Thrush, Eastern Meadowlark, Snow Bunting, White-throated Sparrow, Swamp Sparrow, Le Conte’s Sparrow, and Field Sparrow.

Curious what birds will move next? Check out our forecast.

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Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

Northerly flow and slightly cooler temperatures following the passage of a cold front brought moderate to very heavy flights to the Midwest and Northeast on Friday and Saturday nights. Following the passage of this front, high pressure returned to the region and quieted the movements substantially by Sunday night. Another frontal passage through the region brought moderate to heavy flights in the Midwest and mid Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday nights, with the extent of these flights reaching the coast by Wednesday night. Note that some coastal movements on Wednesday night were very heavy, particular in New Jersey and DelMarVa. Another disturbance moving through the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday night spawned a new round of moderate to heavy flights, as the remainder of the region farther east saw little movement in primarily unfavorable southerly flow. Note that some localized flights occurred in the mid Atlantic, where conditions were locally favorable for the large number of migrants from previous nights’ to take flight.

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American Wigeon, Ryan Schain

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to very heavy flights occurred across the region during the period. These movements occurred in several waves, but much of the region participate in the action and experienced excellent migration nights. The pulses of favorable conditions moved in two to three waves through the southeast, alternating with locally unfavorable conditions where migration was minimal. By the end of the period, movements were increasingly restricted to coastal areas from the Carolinas into Florida and west along the Gulf Coast through Texas.

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Savannah Sparrow, Ryan Schain

Savannah Sparrow, Ryan Schain

Great Plains

No extensive intense flights occurred at the regional scale during this period. However, northern, central, and southern Plains’ locations each experienced pulses of moderate flights. The most extensive occurred in the southern Plains to kick off last weekend, followed on Sunday night by similarly intense flights in the central Plains. Monday night saw the most extensive of the region’s flight for the week, with light to moderate flights in the north and moderate flights in the central and southern Plains. As similarly extensive but less intense movement ended the period on Thursday night.

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Bufflehead, Ryan Schain

Bufflehead, Ryan Schain

West

Light to moderate flights were scattered across the west last weekend. Additionally, a local flight in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night that reached moderate to locally heavy intensities was a bright spot in what was otherwise a mostly quiet remainder of the period across the region. Note that some areas of the southern Rockies saw more intense flights, in some places moderate to locally heavy, particularly last weekend and to end the period on Thursday night.

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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