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Regional Migration Forecast: 13-20 November 2015

Golden Eagle, Brian Sullivan

Golden Eagle, Brian Sullivan

Continental Summary

Mid to late period conditions will be favorable for scattered light to moderate pulses of movements featuring American Wigeon, Cooper’s Hawk, Golden Eagle, American Coot, Snowy Owl, and Red-winged Blackbird in the West, while a strong frontal passage early in the weekend brings moderate to heavy flights of Mallard, Snow Goose, Hooded Merganser, Common Merganser, Purple Sandpiper, Bonaparte’s Gull, and American Robin to the East.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

The passage of a strong low pressure center to the east brings favorable conditions to much of the region for moderate to heavy weekend flights. These conditions, and the intensity of these flights, persists in more coastal and northeastern locales through Monday. However, Tuesday sees a return of southerly flow, and for an extended period, shutting down flights in most areas through the forecast week. Note that a few areas are forecast to experience light winds, and locally light and moderate flights may occur in these locations. In addition, another strong system approaches the region to end the period, bringing moderate flights, some of which may be locally heavy, to the upper midwest on Friday.

American Robin, Ryan Schain

American Robin, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Barrow's Goldeneye * 20-Nov 5-Dec After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye ** 23-Oct 13-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Purple Sandpiper * 29-Oct 13-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Gadwall * 3-Oct 19-Oct 13-Nov 30-Nov -
Common Loon *** 9-Oct 25-Oct 14-Nov 30-Nov 12-Dec
Horned Grebe ** 10-Oct 25-Oct 14-Nov 1-Dec 15-Dec
Lesser Scaup * 9-Oct 24-Oct 16-Nov 1-Dec -
White-winged Crossbill * 18-Oct 31-Oct 17-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec
Cave Swallow * 21-Oct 2-Nov 17-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Red-shouldered Hawk ** 24-Aug 5-Sep 22-Sep 13-Nov 22-Nov
American Woodcock * 27-Sep 12-Oct 26-Oct 13-Nov 25-Nov
Double-crested Cormorant *** - - 5-Sep 14-Nov 7-Dec
Pine Siskin *** 24-Sep 9-Oct 29-Oct 14-Nov 27-Nov
Parasitic Jaeger * 23-Aug 6-Sep 25-Sep 15-Nov 30-Nov
Northern Saw-whet Owl * 3-Oct 16-Oct 1-Nov 15-Nov 24-Nov
Golden Eagle * 8-Oct 19-Oct 2-Nov 16-Nov 27-Nov
Northern Goshawk * 3-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 16-Nov 28-Nov
American Pipit ** 5-Sep 21-Sep 22-Oct 17-Nov 4-Dec
Evening Grosbeak * 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 18-Nov 28-Nov
Northern Pintail * 1-Sep 3-Oct 31-Oct 20-Nov 11-Dec
Dunlin * 15-Sep 9-Oct 31-Oct 20-Nov 6-Dec

Gulf Coast and Southeast

A weekend of moderate to heavy flights is in store for the region, as favorable conditions associated with the passage of the strong low pressure center moving off into the Atlantic spawn late season migration. The weekend’s flights become increasingly sparse by Monday as several new disturbances enter the scene. Although a few patches of marginal and favorable conditions may allow for local light and moderate flights through the remainder of the period, most movement will shut down through the end of the work week.

Screenshot 2015-11-12 19.04.28

Bonaparte’s Gull, Ryan Schain

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Fox Sparrow ** 14-Nov 29-Nov 16-Dec - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Greater Scaup * 28-Oct 13-Nov 18-Dec - -
Hooded Merganser *** 29-Oct 13-Nov 11-Dec - -
Bonaparte's Gull ** 30-Oct 14-Nov After Dec 31 - -
Ring-billed Gull *** 25-Oct 15-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Dunlin * 9-Oct 23-Oct 14-Nov 26-Nov 7-Dec
Redhead * 17-Oct 31-Oct 20-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Red-winged Blackbird ** 24-Sep 13-Oct 7-Nov 19-Nov 30-Nov

Great Plains

A generally unfavorable first half of the period for migration will see isolated light to moderate flights at best. The middle of the period will see the first chance for slightly more intense flights, depending on the extent of lighter and more favorably directed winds. But it is not until the very end of the period that favorable conditions arrive. With them, to end the week, moderate and locally heavy movements will take flight, particularly in the northern and central Plains.

Common Merganser, Ryan Schain

Common Merganser, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Trumpeter Swan *** 17-Nov 25-Nov After Dec 31 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Common Goldeneye *** 1-Nov 13-Nov 3-Dec - -
Common Merganser *** 1-Nov 14-Nov 8-Dec - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Lesser Scaup *** 14-Oct 26-Oct 13-Nov 28-Nov 11-Dec
Bonaparte's Gull *** 12-Oct 27-Oct 14-Nov 1-Dec 14-Dec
Greater Scaup * 19-Oct 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 10-Dec
Mallard *** 11-Oct 26-Oct 17-Nov 3-Dec -
Black Scoter * 24-Oct 5-Nov 19-Nov 4-Dec 15-Dec
Bufflehead *** 20-Oct 3-Nov 19-Nov 3-Dec 13-Dec
Hooded Merganser *** 17-Oct 30-Oct 20-Nov 2-Dec 11-Dec
Red-breasted Merganser *** 25-Oct 5-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec 13-Dec
Snow Goose *** 18-Oct 1-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec 15-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Greater Yellowlegs *** - 1-Aug 26-Oct 13-Nov 25-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9-Sep 22-Sep 24-Oct 13-Nov 27-Nov
Red-tailed Hawk ** 8-Sep 28-Sep 29-Oct 14-Nov 25-Nov
Black-bellied Plover * 20-Jul 30-Jul 29-Sep 15-Nov 28-Nov
Sandhill Crane *** 5-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 15-Nov 25-Nov
Surf Scoter * 26-Sep 10-Oct 28-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov
American White Pelican *** 22-Aug 9-Sep 16-Oct 18-Nov 9-Dec
Tundra Swan ** 28-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct 18-Nov 30-Nov
Green-winged Teal *** 7-Oct 19-Oct 4-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec
Northern Pintail *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 19-Nov 1-Dec
Ring-necked Duck *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 7-Nov 19-Nov 29-Nov
Western Grebe *** 2-Sep 18-Oct 31-Oct 19-Nov 3-Dec
American Wigeon *** 5-Oct 18-Oct 4-Nov 20-Nov 3-Dec
Gadwall *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 7-Nov 20-Nov 1-Dec
Pied-billed Grebe *** 30-Aug 12-Sep 31-Oct 20-Nov 6-Dec
Ruddy Duck *** 8-Oct 20-Oct 4-Nov 20-Nov 4-Dec

West

A quiet weekend of unfavorable conditions will see most late season migrants stay on the ground. But Monday through Wednesday, an area of favorable conditions spreads from the Pacific Coast through the Rockies and portions of the Desert Southwest, spawning one of the last, reasonably diverse, light to moderate flights of the season. Another pulse of movements will come at the end of the week, as favorable conditions return, but this time in more northern locations.

American Coot, Ryan Schain

American Coot, Ryan Schain

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

We don’t have any species to highlight here for this week.

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Snowy Owl * 4-Nov 16-Nov 8-Dec - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Coot ** 5-Sep 13-Oct 17-Nov 5-Dec -
Long-tailed Duck * 14-Oct 28-Oct 18-Nov 1-Dec 10-Dec
Rusty Blackbird * 16-Oct 30-Oct 18-Nov 2-Dec 12-Dec
Sandhill Crane * 12-Sep 24-Sep 18-Nov 3-Dec 12-Dec
American Wigeon * 3-Sep 19-Oct 20-Nov 4-Dec 16-Dec

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Killdeer ** 4-Aug 19-Aug 8-Sep 30-Sep 20-Nov
Red-winged Blackbird ** 24-Aug 11-Sep 10-Oct 31-Oct 21-Nov
Cooper's Hawk * 1-Aug 7-Sep 1-Oct 2-Nov 19-Nov
Northern Flicker *** 6-Sep 27-Sep 20-Oct 5-Nov 20-Nov
Red-throated Pipit * 19-Sep 2-Oct 19-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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