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Regional Migration Forecast: 27 March – 3 April 2015

Pectoral Sandpiper © Ian Davies

Pectoral Sandpiper © Ian Davies

Continental Summary

Friday and Monday nights will be the most extensive of the light to moderate movements that occur in the West this week featuring Cassin’s Vireo, Tree Swallow, Orange-crowned Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, Black-throated Gray Warbler, White-crowned Sparrow, while several pulses of more extensive light to moderate movements grace the East from Saturday through Wednesday featuring Double-crested Cormorant, Osprey, Pectoral Sandpiper, Baird’s Sandpiper, Eastern Phoebe, Yellow-throated Vireo, Hooded Warbler, and Fox Sparrow.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in red will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where red and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

We use data collected by eBird users help make more accurate forecasts. If you enjoy the predictions contained in these posts, please consider submitting your own bird sightings to eBird to even further improve the content. Every observation counts, whether it be a single bird at a feeder in your backyard, or an entire day spent in a national park. To get started with eBird, head on over to the site!

Wondering what species are migrating through right now? Check out our analysis for the past 7 days.

Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

What one can only hope is the final cold blast of the season keeps much of the region quieter for the weekend, with the exception of the upper Mississippi River valley and western Great Lakes where light to moderate movements occur in returning southerly winds. As the low pressure heralded by these winds moves through the region, more extensive light to moderate movements will occur in its path on Sunday night from Tennessee north and east into New England. A similar pattern begins anew for the work week, but light to moderate movements will be more southerly in their extents as less favorable conditions arrive in the region’s more northerly areas. Birders should watch for concentrations and local fallouts in areas where precipitation begins falling after dark and winds are southerly, southwesterly, or changing from these directions to more westerly and northerly during the night.

Osprey © Ian Davies

Osprey © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Purple Martin 3/27 4/9 5/18 -
Forster's Tern 3/28 4/29 5/10 5/24
Field Sparrow 3/28 4/9 4/27 -
Merlin 3/29 4/9 4/24 5/25
Glossy Ibis 3/29 4/6 - -
Yellow-throated Warbler 3/29 4/9 4/24 5/7
Lesser Yellowlegs 3/29 4/23 5/4 5/18
Pine Warbler 3/29 4/9 4/23 -
Little Blue Heron 3/30 4/10 - -
Caspian Tern 3/30 4/9 4/24 -
Hermit Thrush 3/30 4/8 4/21 5/3
Swamp Sparrow 3/31 4/13 4/29 5/14
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 3/31 4/14 5/3 -
Savannah Sparrow 4/1 4/13 5/4 -
Brown Thrasher 4/1 4/14 4/30 -
Chipping Sparrow 4/1 4/14 5/2 -
Palm Warbler 4/2 4/24 5/4 5/16
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 4/2 4/12 4/25 5/8
Virginia Rail 4/3 4/15 5/7 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
American Kestrel 3/15 3/28 4/11 4/29
Eastern Phoebe 3/2 3/29 4/12 -
Osprey 3/13 3/29 4/19 -
Pectoral Sandpiper 3/16 3/29 4/17 5/24
Bonaparte's Gull 3/18 3/30 4/11 4/24
Blue-winged Teal 3/14 3/31 4/18 5/2
Golden-crowned Kinglet 3/23 3/31 4/9 4/20
Double-crested Cormorant 3/18 4/1 4/19 -
Great Egret 3/20 4/1 5/15 -
Winter Wren 3/23 4/1 4/14 4/26
Brown Creeper 3/24 4/1 4/10 4/23
Tree Swallow 3/21 4/3 5/10 -
Vesper Sparrow 3/26 4/3 - -
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker 3/26 4/3 4/13 4/23

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Horned Grebe - 3/5 3/27 4/16
Bufflehead - - 3/27 4/21
Ruddy Duck - - 3/28 4/27
Killdeer - 3/2 3/31 -
Green-winged Teal - - 3/31 4/24
Dark-eyed Junco - - 4/2 4/22
Northern Shoveler - - 4/3 4/27

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Snow Goose - - 3/6 3/29
Tundra Swan - - - 3/29
Canvasback - - 3/11 3/30
Redhead - - 3/13 3/30
Northern Pintail - - 3/12 3/31
Common Goldeneye - - 3/1 4/1
Black Scoter - - 3/1 4/2

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Light to moderate movements become more widespread over the weekend as favorable conditions build through the region. These movements will reach their greatest extents late in the weekend and early in the work week, becoming increasingly scattered but perhaps locally more intense as scattered and increasingly widespread precipitation arrives to unsettle the region. Of particular interest along the Gulf Coast this period will be the interactions between inbound migrants from the south and precipitation from Tuesday through the end of the period from Texas east through Florida. Although not terribly favorable for large numbers of birds to depart from northern Central America and eastern Mexico over water, forecast conditions include light winds that may be sufficient to allow for such an exodus to occur and to meet precipitation over water. Birders should watch more proximate and updated weather forecasts closely late in the weekend to see how the potential for migrant fallouts develops.

Yellow-throated Vireo © Ian Davies

Yellow-throated Vireo © Ian Davies

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Franklin's Gull 3/27 4/6 4/20 5/3
Worm-eating Warbler 3/27 4/8 4/19 4/30
Great Crested Flycatcher 3/27 4/12 5/6 -
Fulvous Whistling-Duck 3/28 4/13 4/23 5/4
Semipalmated Sandpiper 3/28 4/14 5/13 5/29
Least Tern 3/28 4/7 4/22 -
Red-eyed Vireo 3/29 4/10 5/4 -
Grasshopper Sparrow 3/30 4/16 5/3 -
Blue-winged Warbler 3/30 4/8 4/19 5/1
Orchard Oriole 3/30 4/10 4/28 5/11
Magnificent Frigatebird 3/31 4/12 4/25 -
Bank Swallow 3/31 4/16 5/2 5/17
Kentucky Warbler 3/31 4/10 4/25 -
Solitary Sandpiper 4/1 4/15 4/27 5/11
Cerulean Warbler 4/2 4/10 4/21 5/1
Warbling Vireo 4/2 4/16 5/2 5/16
Common Yellowthroat 4/2 4/18 5/2 5/16
Summer Tanager 4/2 4/12 4/26 -
Black Tern 4/3 4/14 5/15 -
Sedge Wren 4/3 4/10 4/18 5/1
Brown-crested Flycatcher 4/3 4/12 4/24 -
Whimbrel 4/3 4/12 4/23 5/3
Indigo Bunting 4/3 4/14 4/29 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Swainson's Hawk 3/16 3/27 4/17 5/2
Yellow-throated Vireo 3/12 3/28 4/22 -
Hooded Warbler 3/16 3/29 4/20 -
Baird's Sandpiper 3/12 3/30 5/3 5/19
House Wren 3/16 3/30 4/12 5/1
Upland Sandpiper 3/19 3/30 4/13 4/28
Broad-winged Hawk 3/20 3/31 4/13 4/23
Cliff Swallow 3/15 4/1 5/10 -
Piping Plover - 4/1 4/17 5/1
Prothonotary Warbler 3/24 4/2 4/16 -
Cattle Egret 3/19 4/3 - -
Prairie Warbler 3/22 4/3 4/16 4/28
Chimney Swift 3/23 4/3 5/11 -

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Cedar Waxwing - - 3/29 5/18
American Golden-Plover 3/7 3/18 3/30 5/2
Greater Yellowlegs - - 3/31 5/6
Chipping Sparrow - - 3/31 4/14
Louisiana Waterthrush 3/12 3/20 4/3 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Purple Finch - - - 3/28
American Wigeon - - - 3/28
American White Pelican - - - 3/28
Gadwall - - - 3/30
Glossy Ibis - - 3/9 3/31
Brown Creeper - - - 3/31
Bufflehead - - - 3/31
Lesser Scaup - - - 3/31
American Kestrel - - - 3/31
Golden-crowned Kinglet - - - 4/1
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker - - - 4/1
Song Sparrow - - - 4/1
Horned Grebe - - - 4/2
Winter Wren - - 3/1 4/3
Rufous Hummingbird - - - 4/3

Great Plains

Light to moderate movements, primarily in the southerly winds and clearer skies of Saturday, Monday and Tuesday nights, will grace the Great Plains this week. Of particular interest are the highly favorable conditions in the northern Plains, which have yet to see such conditions this spring and as a result may experience more intense movements (especially on Saturday and Sunday). A strong low moving into the region on Wednesday and Thursday will shut down movements for the latter portion of the work week.

Ruby-crowned Kinglet © Ian Davies

Ruby-crowned Kinglet © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher 3/27 4/7 4/26 -
Northern Parula 3/28 4/5 5/6 5/19
Little Blue Heron 3/29 4/11 4/29 -
Northern Rough-winged Swallow 3/29 4/16 5/6 -
Swainson's Hawk 3/30 4/8 4/22 -
Chipping Sparrow 3/31 4/24 5/7 -
Snowy Egret 4/1 4/12 4/28 -
Marsh Wren 4/1 5/1 6/16 -
Lesser Yellowlegs 4/2 4/14 4/26 5/10
Cattle Egret 4/2 4/14 4/26 -
Barn Swallow 4/2 4/20 5/23 -
Western Grebe 4/2 4/15 6/12 -
American Bittern 4/2 4/13 - -
Upland Sandpiper 4/3 4/19 - -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Double-crested Cormorant 3/14 3/27 4/15 -
Turkey Vulture 3/15 3/27 4/16 -
Horned Grebe 3/2 3/28 4/16 5/5
Ruby-crowned Kinglet 3/23 3/31 5/1 5/15
Louisiana Waterthrush 3/24 3/31 5/7 -
Yellow-throated Warbler 3/18 4/1 4/24 -
Field Sparrow 3/21 4/1 - -
Long-billed Curlew 3/24 4/1 - -
Vesper Sparrow 3/18 4/2 4/20 -
Pied-billed Grebe 3/18 4/3 4/17 5/2
White-eyed Vireo 3/19 4/3 5/22 -
Blue-gray Gnatcatcher 3/25 4/3 5/6 5/18

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Fox Sparrow - - 3/28 4/9
Green-winged Teal - - 3/28 4/25
Killdeer - 3/2 3/29 -
Lesser Scaup 3/2 3/16 3/29 4/27
Song Sparrow 3/13 3/20 3/30 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Sandhill Crane - - 3/17 3/31
Ring-billed Gull - - 3/18 4/2
Herring Gull - - - 4/2

West

From the weekend through the beginning the work week, the West will experience its most favorable conditions and see corresponding light to moderate movements. The Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest will be the areas with the most apparent movements, although early week arrivals are likely in the Great Basin as well. As more unsettled conditions that are markedly less favorable spread into the region (especially after Tuesday), migration will become increasingly more localized. By week’s end, only portions of the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies will see movements, and these will be locally light to moderate.

White-crowned Sparrow © Ian Davies

White-crowned Sparrow © Ian Davies

Species on the Move

Beginning to Arrive What is this?

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Black-throated Gray Warbler 3/27 4/12 4/27 -
Cassin's Vireo 3/28 4/19 5/10 -
Barn Swallow 3/28 4/19 5/18 -
Lesser Nighthawk 3/29 4/25 5/17 -
Common Loon 3/31 4/9 4/20 5/3
Short-billed Dowitcher 4/1 4/16 4/25 5/7
Purple Martin 4/1 4/29 - -
Caspian Tern 4/1 4/14 4/28 -
Bonaparte's Gull 4/2 4/13 4/24 5/5
Nashville Warbler 4/2 4/13 4/27 5/9
Dusky-capped Flycatcher 4/3 4/15 5/1 -
Green Heron 4/3 4/18 5/13 -
Ash-throated Flycatcher 4/3 4/15 5/3 -

Arriving

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
White-crowned Sparrow - 3/30 4/9 5/3
Tree Swallow 3/2 4/2 5/11 -
Orange-crowned Warbler 3/21 4/2 5/1 5/15
Common Grackle 3/22 4/2 5/16 -
Common Yellowthroat 3/20 4/3 5/20 -
Osprey 3/22 4/3 4/21 -

Peaking

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Broad-billed Hummingbird 3/2 3/16 3/28 -
Cooper's Hawk - 3/3 3/29 5/10
Lucy's Warbler 3/10 3/19 4/1 -

Departing

Species Begin Arrival Rapid Influx Peak Rapid Depart
Eurasian Wigeon - - - 3/28

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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