Forecast and Analysis

Regional Migration Forecast: 27 October to 3 November 2017

Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Oct 27, 2017

Brant. Michel Bourque/Macaulay Library. eBird S40070125.

Continental Summary

Favorable migration conditions with light to moderate movements featuring Common Goldeneye, Hooded Merganser, Ross’s Goose, Canada Goose, Pacific Loon, Western Grebe, Red-necked Grebe, Dunlin, and Ring-billed Gull come early in the period to some areas of the West, several pulses of favorable migration conditions bring moderate to very heavy movements to the East that will feature American Wigeon, Pied-billed Grebe, Sharp-shinned Hawk, Northern Harrier, Sandhill Crane, Eastern Phoebe, House Wren, and Pine Siskin.

Arrows show wind speed and direction (arrow points in the direction to which wind is blowing) 100 m above ground level. Areas with southerly winds are colored red; northerly winds colored blue. Accumulated precipitation (in 6 hour intervals) is green, outlined by white. Broadly speaking, areas of the map in blue will experience conditions that are favorable for migration, and areas where blue and green (and red and blue) intersect and overlap may experience migrant concentrations and fallouts as migrants interact with precipitation.

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Need a review of our definitions for regions, species on the move, and migration amounts? Please visit this link.

Quick Links to Regions

Upper Midwest and NortheastBirdCast Upper Midwest and Northeast Region Gulf Coast and SoutheastBirdCast Upper Southeast Region
Great Plainsbirdcast_plains West
BirdCast West Region

Upper Midwest and Northeast

A frontal boundary plods across the region during the weekend, bringing favorable migration conditions for moderate to heavy flights. The first half of the weekend will see these movements to the west of the Appalachians, followed by flights to the east of the mountains on Sunday and Monday. The passage of this frontal boundary coincides with a mobile extratropical system that could make for interesting seawatching conditions in New England on Monday and Tuesday (as well as some transport of late Neotropical migrants to New England and the Canadian Maritimes similar to what occurred last period). Farther west, the influence of high pressure remains through Tuesday, so some moderate to locally very heavy flights will continue in these areas. The remainder of the period sees migration conditions deteriorate in primarily southerly flow in place in advance of the next approaching weather system. Movements will be mostly light to locally moderate, but more intense movements will occur by Thursday night in the Upper Midwest and Ohio River Valley with the arrival of the next frontal boundary.

Pine Siskin. Michael Brown/Macaulay Library. eBird S40019466.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Great Cormorant * 9/5 11/16 After Nov 30 - -
Red-throated Loon ** 10/11 10/28 After Nov 30 - -
Common Merganser ** 10/16 11/29 After Nov 30 - -
Red-breasted Merganser *** 10/16 11/1 After Nov 30 - -
Bufflehead ****! 10/20 10/30 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/20 11/3 After Nov 30 - -
Common Goldeneye *** 10/24 11/29 After Nov 30 - -
Tundra Swan *** 10/30 11/9 11/22 After Nov 30 -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
American Wigeon ** 9/23 10/8 10/28 11/10 11/29
Pine Siskin *** 9/27 10/10 10/28 11/11 After Nov 30
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/4 10/11 10/31 11/20 After Nov 30
Northern Shoveler * 8/9 10/12 11/8 After Nov 30 -
Brant ** 10/1 10/13 10/30 11/8 11/15
American Black Duck ** 9/23 10/14 After Nov 30 - -
Dark-eyed Junco ****! 9/28 10/14 11/10 11/16 11/22
Fox Sparrow *** 9/28 10/16 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck *** 9/29 10/17 11/8 11/23 After Nov 30
Dunlin ** 9/13 10/17 10/29 11/11 11/22
Gadwall ** 10/4 10/19 11/12 11/22 After Nov 30
Redhead * 9/28 10/19 11/14 11/18 11/20
Surf Scoter * 9/25 10/19 11/4 11/12 11/17
Greater Scaup * 10/9 10/22 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback * 10/12 10/23 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/7 10/23 11/9 11/17 11/24
Red-necked Grebe * 10/11 10/23 11/5 11/15 11/23
White-winged Scoter ** 10/12 10/24 11/6 11/13 11/18
Lesser Scaup ** 10/12 10/25 11/14 11/20 After Nov 30
Bonaparte's Gull ** 10/12 10/25 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Common Loon *** 10/14 10/26 11/11 11/24 After Nov 30
Horned Grebe *** 10/15 10/26 11/11 11/17 11/22
Long-tailed Duck ** 10/18 10/27 After Nov 30 - -
Red-throated Loon ** 10/11 10/28 After Nov 30 - -
Bufflehead *** 10/20 10/30 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Red-breasted Merganser *** 10/16 11/1 After Nov 30 - -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/20 11/3 After Nov 30 - -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Laughing Gull ** - 8/2 8/14 After Nov 30 -
Greater Yellowlegs ** - 8/2 8/20 11/11 After Nov 30
Wood Duck ** - 8/2 8/21 11/2 11/22
Royal Tern * - 8/2 8/21 11/8 After Nov 30
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/26 9/5 9/21 11/10 11/19
Blue Jay *** 8/23 9/8 9/28 10/30 11/26
Cooper's Hawk *** 8/2 9/7 10/11 10/28 11/8
Chipping Sparrow *** 9/16 10/2 10/12 10/29 11/9
Savannah Sparrow *** 9/12 9/26 10/12 10/29 11/12
American Robin *** 9/13 9/24 10/13 11/8 After Nov 30
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/18 9/30 10/14 10/28 11/8
Song Sparrow *** 9/19 10/1 10/14 10/28 11/10
Winter Wren ** 9/17 9/28 10/15 10/28 11/8
Golden-crowned Kinglet *** 9/22 10/1 10/15 11/6 11/18
Wilson's Snipe * 9/24 10/3 10/16 10/29 After Nov 30
Eastern Meadowlark * 9/17 10/2 10/16 10/30 11/11
Sharp-shinned Hawk *** 8/31 9/10 10/17 10/30 After Nov 30
Eastern Bluebird ** 9/12 9/27 10/18 11/12 After Nov 30
Field Sparrow *** 9/29 10/8 10/18 10/30 11/8
White-throated Sparrow *** 9/18 9/30 10/18 10/31 11/12
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9/24 10/4 10/18 11/6 After Nov 30
Common Grackle *** 10/2 10/8 10/18 11/7 After Nov 30
Hermit Thrush *** 9/25 10/6 10/19 10/31 11/10
Northern Harrier ** 8/2 10/9 10/21 11/2 11/13
Vesper Sparrow ** 10/5 10/12 10/21 11/2 11/10
Rusty Blackbird ** 9/19 10/3 10/23 11/10 After Nov 30
Green-winged Teal *** 8/13 10/11 10/24 After Nov 30 -
Purple Finch ** 9/26 10/8 10/24 11/8 After Nov 30
American Pipit ** 9/10 9/22 10/24 11/11 11/25
Northern Pintail * 9/5 10/12 10/27 11/7 After Nov 30
American Wigeon * 9/23 10/8 10/28 11/10 11/29
Pine Siskin ** 9/27 10/10 10/28 11/11 After Nov 30
Dunlin ** 9/13 10/17 10/29 11/11 11/22
Brant * 10/1 10/13 10/30 11/8 11/15
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/4 10/11 10/31 11/20 After Nov 30
Surf Scoter * 9/25 10/19 11/4 11/12 11/17

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Black Skimmer * - - Before Aug 1 8/3 10/28
Black-bellied Plover * - 8/2 8/18 8/27 After Nov 30
Pectoral Sandpiper ** 8/11 8/17 8/23 9/7 11/13
Cedar Waxwing *** - 8/2 8/17 9/25 After Nov 30
Forster's Tern * - 8/2 8/16 9/26 After Nov 30
Yellow-crowned Night-Heron * - 8/2 8/6 10/10 10/28
Northern Flicker *** 8/30 9/12 9/25 10/10 10/30
Belted Kingfisher *** - 8/2 9/19 10/16 10/29
Snowy Egret ** - 8/2 8/11 10/17 10/31
Peregrine Falcon *** 8/2 9/23 10/4 10/17 10/28
Red-breasted Nuthatch * 8/12 9/4 10/2 10/17 After Nov 30
Marsh Wren ** 9/7 9/19 9/30 10/17 10/29
Eastern Phoebe *** 9/9 9/18 9/30 10/18 11/3
Osprey *** - 8/2 8/15 10/19 11/4
Blue-headed Vireo *** 9/8 9/21 10/4 10/19 10/31
Lincoln's Sparrow *** 9/10 9/22 10/5 10/19 10/31
Great Blue Heron *** - 8/2 8/15 10/20 After Nov 30
Palm Warbler *** 9/2 9/21 10/6 10/21 11/1
Blue-winged Teal *** 8/2 8/19 9/7 10/22 11/5
Great Egret *** - 8/2 8/13 10/22 11/5
American Kestrel *** 8/29 9/6 9/26 10/22 11/2
Eastern Towhee *** 9/23 9/30 10/9 10/23 11/3
Brown Creeper ** 9/19 9/29 10/14 10/24 11/5
Killdeer *** - - Before Aug 1 10/25 11/24
Tree Swallow *** - 8/2 8/9 10/25 11/6
Merlin *** 8/26 9/4 9/20 10/26 11/6
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/19 9/29 10/12 10/26 11/7
Turkey Vulture *** 8/28 9/6 9/19 10/27 After Nov 30
Swamp Sparrow *** 9/20 9/30 10/13 10/27 11/10
White-crowned Sparrow *** 9/23 10/2 10/15 10/27 11/6
Cooper's Hawk *** 8/2 9/7 10/11 10/28 11/8
Winter Wren ** 9/17 9/28 10/15 10/28 11/8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/18 9/30 10/14 10/28 11/8
Song Sparrow *** 9/19 10/1 10/14 10/28 11/10
Wilson's Snipe * 9/24 10/3 10/16 10/29 After Nov 30
Chipping Sparrow *** 9/16 10/2 10/12 10/29 11/9
Savannah Sparrow *** 9/12 9/26 10/12 10/29 11/12
Sharp-shinned Hawk *** 8/31 9/10 10/17 10/30 After Nov 30
Blue Jay *** 8/23 9/8 9/28 10/30 11/26
Field Sparrow *** 9/29 10/8 10/18 10/30 11/8
Eastern Meadowlark ** 9/17 10/2 10/16 10/30 11/11
Hermit Thrush *** 9/25 10/6 10/19 10/31 11/10
White-throated Sparrow *** 9/18 9/30 10/18 10/31 11/12
Wood Duck *** - 8/2 8/21 11/2 11/22
Northern Harrier ** 8/2 10/9 10/21 11/2 11/13
Vesper Sparrow ** 10/5 10/12 10/21 11/2 11/10

Gulf Coast and Southeast

Moderate to very heavy flights march across the region in the wake of a passing frontal boundary over the weekend. Flights gradually diminish with returning southerly flow on Monday and Tuesday. And with the arrival of warmer air by Tuesday night and Wednesday, migration intensities and extent will decrease dramatically. Some late week movements will occur in the southern Appalachians and Florida, where marginal or locally favorable conditions will facilitate locally moderate flights.

Caspian Tern. James Rieman/Macaulay Library. eBird S39807580.

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Great Blue Heron *** 8/2 11/5 11/16 After Nov 30 -
Herring Gull ** 9/22 11/29 After Nov 30 - -
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/25 10/31 11/20 After Nov 30 -
American White Pelican *** 9/29 10/30 11/15 11/21 After Nov 30
Sandhill Crane ** 10/8 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
American Wigeon *** 10/10 10/30 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Green-winged Teal *** 10/11 11/4 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Pine Siskin ** 10/14 10/30 After Nov 30 - -
Gadwall *** 10/17 10/30 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 11/18 11/24
Northern Pintail *** 10/18 10/31 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck *** 10/18 11/1 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Common Gallinule *** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Common Gallinule *** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Dark-eyed Junco *** 10/18 11/2 After Nov 30 - -
Northern Gannet * 10/19 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/20 11/5 11/23 After Nov 30 -
Redhead *** 10/21 11/3 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Eared Grebe * 10/21 11/4 11/24 After Nov 30 -
Black-necked Stilt ** 10/21 10/29 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Northern Shoveler *** 10/22 11/4 11/19 After Nov 30 -
American Pipit *** 10/22 11/4 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Snow Goose *** 10/23 11/5 After Nov 30 - -
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck ** 10/24 10/30 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Ross's Goose * 10/24 11/7 After Nov 30 - -
Common Loon *** 10/27 11/8 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback ** 10/28 11/8 After Nov 30 - -
Lesser Scaup *** 10/29 11/9 After Nov 30 - -
Horned Grebe *** 10/30 11/11 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-billed Gull *** 10/30 11/24 After Nov 30 - -
Bonaparte's Gull ** 11/1 11/13 After Nov 30 - -
Hooded Merganser *** 11/2 11/11 After Nov 30 - -
Bufflehead *** 11/4 11/13 After Nov 30 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Black-bellied Plover * - 8/2 10/31 After Nov 30 -
Caspian Tern * - 8/2 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Blue-winged Teal * 8/8 8/26 11/8 11/29 After Nov 30
Bald Eagle ** 9/3 9/15 11/21 After Nov 30 -
Sora * 8/29 9/21 11/7 11/17 After Nov 30
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 9/8 9/24 10/28 11/15 After Nov 30
American Kestrel *** 9/12 9/29 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Black Vulture ** 8/28 9/30 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Tree Swallow ** 9/24 10/3 11/2 11/14 11/22
Marsh Wren ** 9/20 10/3 11/1 11/18 After Nov 30
Lincoln's Sparrow ** 9/23 10/4 10/31 11/13 11/21
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9/22 10/4 11/9 After Nov 30 -
House Wren *** 9/23 10/6 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30
American Bittern * 9/14 10/9 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Eastern Phoebe *** 9/25 10/9 10/30 After Nov 30 -
Double-crested Cormorant *** 9/27 10/11 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Sedge Wren * 9/28 10/11 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/26 10/14 11/16 11/24 After Nov 30
Wilson's Snipe ** 9/30 10/15 11/14 After Nov 30 -
Blue-headed Vireo ** 9/3 10/15 10/31 11/8 11/14
Eastern Meadowlark *** 10/2 10/15 11/3 11/23 After Nov 30
Spotted Towhee * 10/5 10/16 After Nov 30 - -
Winter Wren * 10/7 10/17 After Nov 30 - -
Golden-crowned Kinglet *** 10/7 10/17 11/15 After Nov 30 -
Brown Creeper * 10/6 10/18 11/23 After Nov 30 -
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 10/6 10/18 After Nov 30 - -
Song Sparrow *** 10/7 10/19 11/17 After Nov 30 -
White-throated Sparrow *** 10/9 10/19 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Western Meadowlark * 10/2 10/19 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Savannah Sparrow *** 10/5 10/20 11/10 11/27 After Nov 30
American Avocet * 8/2 10/22 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Vesper Sparrow ** 10/12 10/23 11/7 11/15 11/22
Chipping Sparrow *** 10/13 10/24 After Nov 30 - -
Hermit Thrush *** 10/15 10/25 11/11 11/17 11/21
Field Sparrow *** 10/14 10/25 11/14 After Nov 30 -
Red-tailed Hawk *** 10/1 10/26 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Dunlin ** 10/10 10/26 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Franklin's Gull * 10/14 10/26 11/7 11/25 After Nov 30
Northern Harrier *** 9/16 10/27 11/16 After Nov 30 -
Common Gallinule ** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Common Gallinule ** 10/18 10/28 11/11 11/19 After Nov 30
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 11/18 11/24
Sandhill Crane ** 10/8 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
Black-necked Stilt * 10/21 10/29 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Black-bellied Whistling-Duck ** 10/24 10/30 11/9 After Nov 30 -
Gadwall *** 10/17 10/30 11/19 After Nov 30 -
American Wigeon *** 10/10 10/30 11/18 After Nov 30 -
American White Pelican *** 9/29 10/30 11/15 11/21 After Nov 30
Pine Siskin * 10/14 10/30 After Nov 30 - -
Northern Pintail ** 10/18 10/31 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/25 10/31 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck *** 10/18 11/1 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Dark-eyed Junco *** 10/18 11/2 After Nov 30 - -
Redhead *** 10/21 11/3 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Northern Shoveler *** 10/22 11/4 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Green-winged Teal *** 10/11 11/4 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Eared Grebe * 10/21 11/4 11/24 After Nov 30 -
Northern Gannet * 10/19 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
American Pipit *** 10/22 11/4 11/20 After Nov 30 -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Piping Plover * - 8/2 8/20 After Nov 30 -
Cape May Warbler * 9/3 9/12 9/25 10/28 11/5
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher *** 9/8 9/23 10/7 11/3 11/23
Merlin * 9/8 9/18 10/9 11/2 11/16
Northern Rough-winged Swallow ** 9/25 10/3 10/13 11/2 11/20
Painted Bunting ** 9/28 10/4 10/14 10/29 11/9
Cooper's Hawk ** 8/2 9/21 10/17 After Nov 30 -
Northern Flicker *** 9/18 10/1 10/17 10/29 11/8
Eastern Towhee *** 9/10 10/10 10/19 11/1 11/12
Palm Warbler *** 9/15 10/5 10/20 10/31 11/7
Common Grackle *** 9/29 10/9 10/21 After Nov 30 -
Belted Kingfisher ** 8/13 9/18 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Red-breasted Nuthatch * 10/2 10/11 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Brown-headed Cowbird * 9/15 9/27 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker *** 9/30 10/9 10/24 10/31 11/6
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 9/8 9/24 10/28 11/15 After Nov 30
House Wren *** 9/23 10/6 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30
Eastern Phoebe *** 9/25 10/9 10/30 After Nov 30 -
Black-bellied Plover * - 8/2 10/31 After Nov 30 -
Blue-headed Vireo * 9/3 10/15 10/31 11/8 11/14
Lincoln's Sparrow ** 9/23 10/4 10/31 11/13 11/21
Marsh Wren * 9/20 10/3 11/1 11/18 After Nov 30
Tree Swallow * 9/24 10/3 11/2 11/14 11/22
Sedge Wren * 9/28 10/11 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Eastern Meadowlark ** 10/2 10/15 11/3 11/23 After Nov 30

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Blue Grosbeak ** - - Before Aug 1 8/24 10/28
Sandwich Tern * - 8/2 8/16 8/27 After Nov 30
Barn Swallow *** - 8/2 8/10 9/9 11/14
Least Sandpiper * - 8/2 8/25 9/15 After Nov 30
Western Sandpiper * 8/2 8/17 8/31 9/15 After Nov 30
Cave Swallow * 8/2 8/28 9/4 9/16 11/21
Common Tern * - 8/2 8/18 9/30 11/10
Blackburnian Warbler ** 8/26 9/5 9/18 10/3 10/28
Hooded Warbler *** 8/8 8/20 9/20 10/5 10/29
White-eyed Vireo *** 8/21 9/2 9/19 10/13 10/28
Prairie Warbler *** 8/2 9/7 9/22 10/14 11/3
Swainson's Hawk * - 8/2 10/2 10/16 10/28
Eastern Wood-Pewee *** 8/19 9/1 9/17 10/17 11/2
American Redstart *** 8/31 9/12 9/26 10/19 11/2
Magnolia Warbler *** 8/31 9/13 10/1 10/19 10/31
Yellow-throated Warbler *** 8/2 9/3 9/25 10/20 11/4
Brown Thrasher *** 9/2 9/22 10/6 10/21 11/3
Common Yellowthroat *** 9/1 9/17 10/6 10/21 11/2
Clay-colored Sparrow * 9/2 9/16 10/4 10/21 11/6
Gray Catbird *** 9/16 9/27 10/10 10/23 11/6
Tennessee Warbler *** 8/31 9/11 10/3 10/23 11/3
Nashville Warbler *** 8/30 9/11 10/4 10/24 11/12
Northern Parula *** 8/11 9/2 9/19 10/24 11/4
Ovenbird *** 8/26 9/11 9/25 10/25 11/5
Black-and-white Warbler *** 8/22 9/5 9/22 10/25 11/5
Black-throated Green Warbler *** 8/28 9/6 10/10 10/25 11/6
Indigo Bunting *** 9/21 9/30 10/11 10/25 11/5
Red-headed Woodpecker ** 8/22 9/4 9/18 10/26 11/5
Northern Mockingbird *** 9/7 9/23 10/10 10/26 11/22
Pine Warbler *** 8/15 9/1 10/9 10/26 11/3
Black-throated Blue Warbler *** 8/31 9/11 10/11 10/27 11/5
Cape May Warbler ** 9/3 9/12 9/25 10/28 11/5
Northern Flicker *** 9/18 10/1 10/17 10/29 11/8
Painted Bunting ** 9/28 10/4 10/14 10/29 11/9
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker *** 9/30 10/9 10/24 10/31 11/6
Palm Warbler *** 9/15 10/5 10/20 10/31 11/7
Eastern Towhee *** 9/10 10/10 10/19 11/1 11/12
Merlin * 9/8 9/18 10/9 11/2 11/16
Northern Rough-winged Swallow ** 9/25 10/3 10/13 11/2 11/20
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher *** 9/8 9/23 10/7 11/3 11/23

Great Plains

Pulses of moderate to very heavy flights will be widespread over the nights during the first half of the forecast period. By Tuesday night southerly winds and warmer temperatures return, rapidly decreasing the intensity and extent of these movements across the region. Another disturbance will move through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a return of favorable migration conditions to end the period. Movements will be primarily in the northern and central Plains, with moderate to locally very heavy intensities.

LeConte’s Sparrow. Jeff Timmons/Macaulay Library. eBird S39917816.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Rough-legged Hawk *** 10/12 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
Mallard ****! 10/14 10/31 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/16 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Bald Eagle *** 10/17 11/10 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback *** 10/19 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Lesser Scaup ****! 10/21 10/30 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Snow Goose *** 10/23 11/3 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/23 11/3 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Ross's Goose *** 10/25 11/5 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Greater Scaup ** 10/26 11/5 11/16 After Nov 30 -
Bufflehead ****! 10/29 11/7 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Cackling Goose *** 11/1 11/10 11/23 After Nov 30 -
Canada Goose ****! 11/1 11/10 11/22 After Nov 30 -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/3 9/16 10/30 11/13 11/29
Yellow-bellied Sapsucker * 9/12 9/27 After Nov 30 - -
Brown Creeper ** 9/18 10/5 After Nov 30 - -
Pine Siskin ** 9/26 10/9 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Northern Harrier *** 9/12 10/11 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30
Golden-crowned Kinglet ** 9/25 10/12 11/5 11/15 After Nov 30
Dark-eyed Junco ****! 9/29 10/14 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Western Grebe * 9/6 10/17 10/31 After Nov 30 -
Greater White-fronted Goose *** 10/5 10/18 11/5 11/24 After Nov 30
Sandhill Crane *** 10/7 10/18 10/31 11/13 After Nov 30
Gadwall *** 10/9 10/20 11/7 After Nov 30 -
American Wigeon *** 10/4 10/20 11/4 11/20 After Nov 30
Green-winged Teal *** 10/5 10/20 11/5 After Nov 30 -
Horned Grebe *** 10/8 10/21 11/6 11/22 After Nov 30
Northern Pintail *** 10/10 10/23 11/6 After Nov 30 -
Ring-billed Gull *** 10/11 10/23 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck *** 10/13 10/24 11/6 11/21 After Nov 30
Herring Gull ** 9/30 10/24 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-necked Duck *** 10/16 10/25 11/5 11/14 11/19
Redhead *** 10/17 10/26 11/8 11/20 After Nov 30
Northern Shoveler *** 10/19 10/27 11/7 11/19 After Nov 30
Common Loon *** 10/16 10/27 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Purple Finch * 8/2 10/27 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback *** 10/19 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/16 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Rough-legged Hawk ** 10/12 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
Lesser Scaup *** 10/21 10/30 11/12 After Nov 30 -
Mallard *** 10/14 10/31 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Snow Goose *** 10/23 11/3 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/23 11/3 11/17 After Nov 30 -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Killdeer *** - - Before Aug 1 11/4 After Nov 30
Wood Duck ** - 8/2 8/20 10/28 After Nov 30
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/2 9/7 9/29 10/28 11/25
Northern Flicker *** 9/7 9/16 10/1 11/4 11/13
Chipping Sparrow *** 9/20 9/24 10/1 11/1 11/13
Common Grackle *** 9/13 9/20 10/6 10/29 After Nov 30
Lincoln's Sparrow *** 9/6 9/21 10/11 10/29 11/10
Savannah Sparrow *** 9/13 10/3 10/15 10/29 11/8
White-throated Sparrow *** 9/16 9/28 10/15 11/6 11/17
Western Meadowlark *** 8/2 9/9 10/15 10/29 11/7
Franklin's Gull *** 9/3 9/16 10/16 11/7 After Nov 30
Le Conte's Sparrow *** 9/25 10/4 10/16 10/28 11/7
Swamp Sparrow *** 9/21 10/2 10/16 11/2 11/14
Sharp-shinned Hawk ** 8/31 10/2 10/17 10/28 After Nov 30
Eastern Meadowlark *** 9/21 10/1 10/17 11/7 11/19
American White Pelican *** 8/2 9/8 10/18 After Nov 30 -
Wilson's Snipe ** 8/2 10/3 10/18 11/3 11/16
Field Sparrow *** 9/20 10/4 10/18 11/4 11/15
American Avocet *** 9/23 10/5 10/20 11/12 After Nov 30
Red-winged Blackbird *** 9/12 9/26 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Double-crested Cormorant *** 9/10 9/26 10/23 After Nov 30 -
Merlin * 8/19 9/6 10/24 11/8 11/24
American Pipit *** 9/17 10/6 10/24 11/12 After Nov 30
Song Sparrow *** 9/26 10/8 10/24 11/6 11/17
Red-tailed Hawk ** 9/5 9/27 10/27 11/9 After Nov 30
Greater Yellowlegs ** - 8/2 10/27 11/16 After Nov 30
Northern Harrier *** 9/12 10/11 10/28 11/12 After Nov 30
Pied-billed Grebe *** 9/3 9/16 10/30 11/13 11/29
Western Grebe ** 9/6 10/17 10/31 After Nov 30 -
Sandhill Crane *** 10/7 10/18 10/31 11/13 After Nov 30
Pine Siskin * 9/26 10/9 11/2 After Nov 30 -
American Wigeon *** 10/4 10/20 11/4 11/20 After Nov 30

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Black-bellied Plover * - 8/2 8/21 9/1 11/21
Tree Swallow ** - - Before Aug 1 9/9 11/1
Lesser Yellowlegs ** - 8/2 8/20 9/13 11/8
Black-crowned Night-Heron * - 8/2 8/27 9/27 10/28
Cattle Egret * - - Before Aug 1 10/1 11/2
White-faced Ibis * - 8/2 9/1 10/2 10/30
Osprey *** 8/28 9/9 9/23 10/6 11/11
American Golden-Plover * 8/12 9/22 9/30 10/12 11/16
Black-throated Green Warbler * 8/20 9/2 9/22 10/13 10/28
Clay-colored Sparrow *** 8/20 9/3 9/24 10/16 10/30
Orange-crowned Warbler *** 9/5 9/21 10/4 10/17 10/28
Scissor-tailed Flycatcher *** 9/6 9/16 9/27 10/19 11/1
Great Egret *** - 8/2 9/13 10/20 11/11
Sora * - 8/2 9/27 10/20 11/4
Sedge Wren *** 9/19 9/28 10/9 10/21 10/31
Nelson's Sparrow ** 9/23 9/30 10/10 10/21 10/29
Marsh Wren *** 9/14 9/27 10/9 10/23 11/5
Blue-winged Teal *** 8/2 8/10 9/13 10/24 11/10
Cooper's Hawk ** 8/2 9/5 9/24 10/24 11/8
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/7 9/21 10/8 10/24 11/8
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/15 9/26 10/11 10/24 11/15
Sprague's Pipit * 9/19 9/29 10/11 10/25 11/6
Spotted Towhee *** 9/9 9/23 10/9 10/25 11/6
Vesper Sparrow *** 9/7 9/23 10/10 10/27 11/6
Wood Duck ** - 8/2 8/20 10/28 After Nov 30
Sharp-shinned Hawk * 8/31 10/2 10/17 10/28 After Nov 30
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/2 9/7 9/29 10/28 11/25
Le Conte's Sparrow *** 9/25 10/4 10/16 10/28 11/7
Savannah Sparrow *** 9/13 10/3 10/15 10/29 11/8
Lincoln's Sparrow *** 9/6 9/21 10/11 10/29 11/10
Western Meadowlark *** 8/2 9/9 10/15 10/29 11/7
Common Grackle *** 9/13 9/20 10/6 10/29 After Nov 30
Chipping Sparrow *** 9/20 9/24 10/1 11/1 11/13
Swamp Sparrow *** 9/21 10/2 10/16 11/2 11/14
Wilson's Snipe ** 8/2 10/3 10/18 11/3 11/16
Killdeer *** - - Before Aug 1 11/4 After Nov 30
Northern Flicker *** 9/7 9/16 10/1 11/4 11/13
Field Sparrow *** 9/20 10/4 10/18 11/4 11/15

West

Light to moderate flights will be scattered across the region to begin the weekend. These flights may be more intense on Saturday night in the northern Rockies in highly favorable migration conditions. Sunday night will see perhaps the greatest extent of these conditions. Locally intense flights are also likely on Sunday and Monday night in and to the east of the central and southern Rockies respectively. Less favorable migration conditions arrive and overspread much of the region for the remainder of the period, with significantly reduced flights are likely and only on Wednesday and Thursday in the northern Rockies.

Western Grebe. John Bruin/Macaulay Library. eBird S40029358.

Species on the Move

Beginning Arrivals What is this?

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Canada Goose ** 8/2 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
Ring-billed Gull ** 8/10 11/7 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Northern Harrier ** 8/17 11/8 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Sandhill Crane * 9/14 11/10 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Canvasback *** 10/9 11/4 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Rough-legged Hawk * 10/12 11/29 After Nov 30 - -
Pacific Loon * 10/14 10/29 11/24 After Nov 30 -
Bufflehead ****! 10/16 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser *** 10/19 11/2 After Nov 30 - -
Red-breasted Merganser *** 10/20 11/2 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Trumpeter Swan * 10/21 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
Tundra Swan ** 10/25 11/6 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Barrow's Goldeneye ** 10/25 11/8 After Nov 30 - -
Ferruginous Hawk * 10/25 11/6 After Nov 30 - -
Ross's Goose ** 10/30 11/9 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Common Goldeneye *** 11/4 11/12 After Nov 30 - -

Peaking Arrivals

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Northern Shoveler *** 8/6 8/20 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Northern Pintail ** 8/12 8/20 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Green-winged Teal ** 8/2 8/20 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Black Phoebe ** 8/16 9/9 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Red-tailed Hawk *** 8/7 9/10 After Nov 30 - -
American Pipit ** 8/31 9/11 11/15 After Nov 30 -
Say's Phoebe ** 9/1 9/13 11/21 After Nov 30 -
Merlin * 8/30 9/14 11/9 11/28 After Nov 30
Eared Grebe *** 9/2 9/16 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Marsh Wren * 8/21 9/20 10/29 After Nov 30 -
Varied Thrush ** 9/18 9/29 After Nov 30 - -
Cackling Goose ** 9/16 10/3 After Nov 30 - -
Ruby-crowned Kinglet *** 9/21 10/3 11/5 11/10 11/12
White-throated Sparrow * 9/20 10/3 10/28 11/5 11/10
Dark-eyed Junco *** 9/23 10/5 11/8 11/13 11/16
Herring Gull ** 9/28 10/13 After Nov 30 - -
Redhead * 10/3 10/14 11/14 After Nov 30 -
Ruddy Duck ** 9/21 10/14 11/18 After Nov 30 -
Western Grebe *** 10/3 10/14 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Dunlin ** 10/5 10/15 10/30 After Nov 30 -
American Wigeon *** 9/2 10/17 11/22 After Nov 30 -
Ring-necked Duck *** 9/21 10/17 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Clark's Grebe * 10/8 10/18 11/6 After Nov 30 -
Pied-billed Grebe ** 8/2 10/19 11/11 After Nov 30 -
Bald Eagle ** 9/26 10/19 After Nov 30 - -
Greater Scaup * 10/8 10/20 After Nov 30 - -
White-winged Scoter * 10/11 10/20 11/5 11/15 After Nov 30
Red-necked Grebe * 8/26 10/20 11/3 11/13 11/20
Surf Scoter ** 10/7 10/21 11/10 11/15 11/18
Horned Grebe ** 9/20 10/21 11/8 11/15 11/19
Mew Gull ** 10/1 10/22 11/20 After Nov 30 -
California Gull * 8/2 10/22 11/7 After Nov 30 -
Common Loon ** 10/12 10/23 11/4 11/14 11/22
Glaucous-winged Gull ** 10/10 10/23 After Nov 30 - -
Gadwall ** 10/7 10/25 11/17 After Nov 30 -
Lesser Scaup *** 10/8 10/26 11/19 After Nov 30 -
Bonaparte's Gull *** 10/17 10/28 11/10 After Nov 30 -
Bufflehead *** 10/16 10/29 After Nov 30 - -
Pacific Loon * 10/14 10/29 11/24 After Nov 30 -
Hooded Merganser ** 10/19 11/2 After Nov 30 - -
Red-breasted Merganser ** 10/20 11/2 11/20 After Nov 30 -
Canada Goose ** 8/2 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
Trumpeter Swan * 10/21 11/4 After Nov 30 - -
Canvasback ** 10/9 11/4 11/19 After Nov 30 -

Beginning Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Greater Yellowlegs * 8/11 8/18 8/28 After Nov 30 -
Elegant Tern * 8/2 8/21 9/7 After Nov 30 -
Black-bellied Plover * 9/12 9/18 9/30 After Nov 30 -
Red-shouldered Hawk * 8/17 9/12 10/3 After Nov 30 -
Northern Flicker *** 9/5 9/29 10/16 11/8 11/22
Western Meadowlark * 9/16 9/30 10/16 After Nov 30 -
Sharp-shinned Hawk * 8/23 9/10 10/19 11/11 After Nov 30
Fox Sparrow * 9/9 9/23 10/20 11/1 11/8
Belted Kingfisher * - 8/2 10/22 After Nov 30 -
Golden-crowned Kinglet * 9/10 10/4 10/23 11/6 11/18
Hermit Thrush * 9/25 10/6 10/26 11/6 11/15
White-throated Sparrow * 9/20 10/3 10/28 11/5 11/10
Marsh Wren * 8/21 9/20 10/29 After Nov 30 -
Dunlin * 10/5 10/15 10/30 After Nov 30 -
Western Grebe *** 10/3 10/14 11/2 After Nov 30 -
Red-necked Grebe * 8/26 10/20 11/3 11/13 11/20
Common Loon ** 10/12 10/23 11/4 11/14 11/22

Ending Departures

Species Noticeability Migrants Begin Arriving Rapid Migrant Influx Peak Rapid Migrant Departure Last Migrants Depart
Sora * 8/21 9/1 9/13 9/23 After Nov 30
Marbled Godwit * 8/9 8/17 8/28 9/29 After Nov 30
American Avocet * 8/15 8/21 8/30 9/30 After Nov 30
Parasitic Jaeger * 8/26 9/6 9/19 10/1 10/29
Black Turnstone * 8/6 8/17 9/21 10/2 After Nov 30
Heermann's Gull * 8/15 9/14 9/21 10/2 After Nov 30
Killdeer *** 8/2 8/14 9/7 10/3 11/3
Franklin's Gull * - 8/2 8/31 10/3 11/5
American Robin * 8/30 9/4 10/10 10/17 11/14
Chipping Sparrow *** - 8/2 9/8 10/18 11/2
Clay-colored Sparrow * 8/17 8/28 9/14 10/18 11/6
Red-breasted Nuthatch *** - 8/2 9/7 10/19 10/30
Black-throated Gray Warbler *** - 8/2 10/4 10/19 10/29
Brewer's Blackbird * 8/23 9/11 9/27 10/20 After Nov 30
Lincoln's Sparrow ** 8/30 9/11 10/4 10/21 11/5
White-crowned Sparrow *** 9/6 9/21 10/11 10/21 10/31
Red-naped Sapsucker * 9/6 9/19 10/7 10/22 11/3
Townsend's Warbler *** 8/13 8/30 10/2 10/22 11/6
Blue-winged Teal * - 8/2 9/22 10/23 11/3
Yellow-rumped Warbler *** 9/13 9/27 10/14 10/23 11/3
Cooper's Hawk ** 8/2 9/7 10/1 10/24 11/11
Savannah Sparrow ** 8/2 9/3 9/23 10/24 11/2
Pink-footed Shearwater * 8/8 8/27 9/14 10/25 11/7
Golden-crowned Sparrow * 9/13 9/26 10/19 10/26 11/18
Red-winged Blackbird ** 8/25 9/12 10/10 10/27 After Nov 30
Fox Sparrow * 9/9 9/23 10/20 11/1 11/8

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Farnsworth and Van Doren

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