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Lights Out

Dallas and Houston Alerts

Tonight’s migration forecast:

Houston and Dallas

About tonight’s migration forecast – A forecast on a particular night represents a prediction for the number of birds/km that will pass over a selected location during the night based on an analysis of 23 years worth of weather and radar data. We categorize forecasts as low, medium, or high based on historic data (weather variables and bird migration amounts from radar) for the selected location. A forecast triggers an alert whenever a prediction falls within the “high” category. We base these predictions on numbers of birds/km occurring over a particular area three hours after sunset. Previous research highlights this temporal window as correlating closely with the magnitude of migration throughout the night. We convert this raw prediction into a prediction for an entire night using a multiplier that has been customized for this region based on historic data.

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